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Lkr

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,533
75%? Really? You sound really confident in a non-existent invasion happening that will only happen due to western agitation.
I'd love to hear how the west is agitating this. keep in mind Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Ukraine all signed agreements to defend/honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for them giving up their nuclear arsenal. Of the countries that are party to this agreement, only one of them has invaded and annexed territory from Ukraine.
 

carlosrso

Member
Oct 27, 2017
828
Ipatinga, Brazil
I'm starting to think that Russia will abort this operation. The window for invasion is getting tight and the sanctions and operational costs will obliterate their economy.
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,098
I'm starting to think that Russia will abort this operation. The window for invasion is getting tight and the sanctions and operational costs will obliterate their economy.

I don't think the window has even opened yet. There's still videos of trainloads of units moving westward every day from vast distances across Russia. There are six landing ships from the Northern and Baltic fleets about to enter the Mediterranean in the coming days, from there they will most likely sail into the Black Sea to become part of a larger amphibious landing force. Pieces are still being put into place.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,956
the Netherlands
I'm starting to think that Russia will abort this operation. The window for invasion is getting tight and the sanctions and operational costs will obliterate their economy.
The problem is, even if Putin wanted to abort how would he without losing face in front of the entire Russian population? There's 1 thing every dictator in history has needed to stay in power: showing strength against enemies, both real enemies and imaginary enemies like NATO in this case. If Putin doesn't invade and NATO makes no major concessions Putin looks like a huge weakling in front of the entire Russian population and that might very well be worse for him than a complete economic collapse might be.
I don't know, we got people calling others russian bots in here for not lining up for another US proxy war.

Some of ya'll literally never learn.
Ah yeah, US supporting a sovereign country which wants to protect itself against foreign aggression = proxy war.
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,454
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎
fair point. Has anyone actually seen or heard from Putin recently?



Putin is silent about Ukraine because he's not sure about the final output of all of this. If something goes wrong (for Russia), he wants to stay away from it. That's why he's distancing.

It also shows how really weak Putin is, as a person and leader. Strong leaders don't afraid admit mistakes.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,097
Putin is silent about Ukraine because he's not sure about the final output of all of this. If something goes wrong (for Russia), he wants to stay away from it. That's why he's distancing.

It also shows how really weak Putin is, as a person and leader. Strong leaders don't afraid admit mistakes.
Yep. If the pot of shit eventually blows up, he doesn't want his face anywhere near it.
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,098
People asking what Putin is doing ... Tomorrow he has a video conference call with CEO's of the largest companies in Italy.
 

Typhon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,122
Putin is silent about Ukraine because he's not sure about the final output of all of this. If something goes wrong (for Russia), he wants to stay away from it. That's why he's distancing.

It also shows how really weak Putin is, as a person and leader. Strong leaders don't afraid admit mistakes.
How can the president of Russia distance himself from a war his own country started? Gonna be pretty hard to blame it on a rogue military.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,374
I gotta say i'm positively surprised by the biden admin handling of this. They were a bit slow at the start but it seems we're quickly approaching a point where a invasion will not only be economically disastrous for russia but also could become very costly militarily.

We still need to strongly boost ukranian anti air and anti missile capabilities from my understanding but outside of giving them stingers or patriots.
 

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,840
I gotta say i'm positively surprised by the biden admin handling of this. They were a bit slow at the start but it seems we're quickly approaching a point where a invasion will not only be economically disastrous for russia but also could become very costly militarily.

I think it just takes a bit of time to start getting all the pieces into position which is why it seemed that they were slow. Decisions have to be made and that isn't something you want to rush when it comes to this stuff nor are you really able to without wrangling all of your partners together.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,313
Seattle
The Debate in Finland and Sweden for NATO heats. up

Ukraine crisis revives Nato debate in Finland and Sweden

Politicians from across the spectrum in both Nordic countries insist on ‘freedom of choice’

President Vladimir Putin has insisted during the crisis over Ukraine that Nato should stop its encroachment towards Russia's borders. But his demand is having unintended consequences in Europe's far north, reviving talk of whether Finland and Sweden should join the military alliance. As the world's attention focuses on the Russian troops massing on Ukraine's border, leaders from across the political spectrum in both Nordic countries have stressed that they have the option to apply for membership at any time.

"The debate is vivid and unprecedented. A lot is going on. A lot depends on what happens next," said Henri Vanhanen, foreign policy and EU adviser to the centre-right National Coalition party, Finland's main opposition group and a proponent of Nato membership. Swedish and Finnish foreign ministers met Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels on Monday, the latest in a series of diplomatic conversations that have included Finnish president Sauli Niinisto speaking to both his US and Russian counterparts in recent days. "Nato's door remains open . . . Sweden and Finland are our closest partners," Stoltenberg said after the meeting. Pekka Haavisto, Finland's foreign minister, said: "Finland is not a member of Nato, but maintaining the national room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice are also integral parts of Finland's foreign, security and defence policy." Both Nordic countries, which gave up their traditional neutrality because of their membership of the EU and its mutual defence clause, have grown closer to Nato in recent years, allowing its troops to cross their territory in times of crisis or during exercises. Russia has threatened a sharp response should Nato expand further by including the two countries around the Baltic Sea. The foreign ministry in Moscow said in December that Sweden and Finland joining Nato "would have serious military and political consequences that would require an adequate response from the Russian side".
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,098
Nations that plan to invade smaller, weaker nations will often use bullshit excuses to try to justify their acts of aggression.

The Bush administration did that in 2003 before invading Iraq.

Russia is doing the same thing here.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,381
Tankie school let out for the day.
Thankfully mods aren't putting up with that anymore. How anyone with a bit of sense can look at Russia massing troops on the borders of Ukraine (in two separate countries nonetheless) and think "gee, it's too bad that Biden made them do that, derp derp derp" is beyond me. This site is better off without those posters altogether, IMO.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,326
I gotta say i'm positively surprised by the biden admin handling of this. They were a bit slow at the start but it seems we're quickly approaching a point where a invasion will not only be economically disastrous for russia but also could become very costly militarily.

We still need to strongly boost ukranian anti air and anti missile capabilities from my understanding but outside of giving them stingers or patriots.
I think the movement in Belarus looking like the invasion will be a whole takeover of Ukraine has upped the urgency. This is no longer a limited incursion by Russia.

AA, the best bet is stingers and other NATO standard man pads. Time is too thin to move in complex missile batteries into Ukraine and successfully train Ukranian forces. Those kind of batteries have terrible consequences if used by undertrained crews.
 

Niklel

Prophet of Regret
Member
Aug 10, 2020
3,996
The problem is, even if Putin wanted to abort how would he without losing face in front of the entire Russian population?
Well, for starters, Russian population doesn't really want a war? Putin also never really stated that he is planning to invade Ukraine. They call it a military exercise, there was never a promise of an invasion. So I don't think losing face is a very big concern… Though Putin will probably still want at least some concessions (not MAJOR concessions, as you said) from NATO before he considers a de-escalation. Otherwise, yes, it would look like all this crisis only led to increased presence of NATO in Eastern Europe, and Russia got nothing out of it (didn't respond in any way).
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,978
I think that China is likely a more rational actor than Russia at the moment, so deterrence may be more likely to work against a Xi led China than a Putin led Russia. China also has a lot more to lose in terms of going to war than Russia does as things are mostly going fairly well for China in terms of its economy and growing international prominence. Taiwan is the major player in semiconductors so having it lost to China would be a massive economic blow to everyone outside of China's favor. Does that mean that the US/EU and NATO should roll out the red carpet for Russia? No, not at all. I just don't think you're going to see open war between them and Russia over the Ukraine.
This is a videogame forum so I guess it makes sense that if Ukraine wants to be worth our protection they should have been building Playstation 5s.

Taiwan is a major player in the semiconductor field, sure, but most of the companies have started looking at building fabs outside the region and China itself is investing into catching up, so if in 10 years if Intel's got a fab in the US, TSMC has a fab in Europe, Samsung already has one in Texas, and China's homegrown companies are caught up would Taiwan now be expendable?

We say China's rational but at a point, if everyone openly admits we can't go to war over single small nations and what point does it become rational for China to think the same? It's like we're hoping Chinese or Russian people can't read English and think our threats carry weight when we ourselves openly state they carry no weight.

Someday it'll actually be irrational to believe the US would defend any nation and all the rational actors in the world will know it.
 

Niklel

Prophet of Regret
Member
Aug 10, 2020
3,996
Oh? What new shitfuckery did Kadyrov Jr. pull last week?
Kidnapping people (families of human rights activists, as far as I understand).
Kremlin said they don't believe in these "fantastic (as in, imaginary) stories".
Then Kadyrov just doubled down and said that he considers the kidnapped families to be terrorists and they will either end up in prison, or be destroyed. 🤷‍♂️

Edit: actually, no. He didn't even say "destroyed". He said "either in prison or (buried) underground".
 

Typhon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,122
Taiwan is a major player in the semiconductor field, sure, but most of the companies have started looking at building fabs outside the region and China itself is investing into catching up, so if in 10 years if Intel's got a fab in the US, TSMC has a fab in Europe, Samsung already has one in Texas, and China's homegrown companies are caught up would Taiwan now be expendable?

No, it would not because TSMC's fabs are years ahead of everyone else.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,097
Kidnapping people (families of human rights activists, as far as I understand).
Kremlin said they don't believe in these "fantastic (as in, imaginary) stories".
Then Kadyrov just doubled down and said that he considers the kidnapped families to be terrorists and they will either end up in prison, or be destroyed. 🤷‍♂️
Ah, so Ramzan being a disgusting waste of oxygen, as usual.
Truth be told, Ramzan could be a real pain for Russia, were he not such a galaxy-tier brainlet. He's content with ruling over his human game reserve/sex & drug dungeon, he has no greater ambitions/aspirations.
I suspect ol' Akhmad got iced with the indirect support of Russia's services, who 'coincidentally' did not warn him of the bomb plot in a timely fashion.

I think the movement in Belarus looking like the invasion will be a whole takeover of Ukraine has upped the urgency. This is no longer a limited incursion by Russia.
Putin is an opportunist. He will extend as far as the bungee cord allows before snapping.
I suspect he has a series of goals, in descending order of "glorious success" propaganda.
1. He takes over Ukraine, ends up with a string of Russian bases throughout the country and a puppet government. This moves the Nato-Russia frontier to Romania, and also puts direct invasion pressure on Moldova.
2. He takes over the eastern half, plus the entire coast, linking him up to Transnistria and Gagauzia. This cuts off Ukraine's access to the sea, leaving an impoverished rump state. Russians can now perform diversionary moves in Moldova (and intensify agitprop in Romania).
3. He takes over the eastern half, but not the entire coast. Ukraine still suffers, since the industrial heartland is in the east (plus all the mid-country cities now ending up right on the Dniester border).
4. Donetsk and Luhansk end up as "fully-independent" (read: full Russian puppet-states) republics, maybe a bit more territory outside them.
 
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