Update:
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...-might-no-longer-be-free.104610/post-18832111
Original post:
Long article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nknown-data-guru-to-make-millions-on-nintendo
Background story on Media Create:
Media Create methodology:
Note that they're an 11-person firm:
Prediction for Nintendo Switch's lifecycle:
Media Create sales data might no longer be free after a company policy review next month:
There's more in the link.
When a company is no longer giving data for free, it's usually because of the stakeholders putting pressure on the company, e.g. publishers, clients, etc.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...-might-no-longer-be-free.104610/post-18832111
Original post:
Long article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nknown-data-guru-to-make-millions-on-nintendo
Background story on Media Create:
Hosokawa founded the company in 1994, the year the original PlayStation went on sale in Japan. Predicting that executives in the burgeoning game industry would need sales information to make decisions, he started building relationships with retail chains to ask for point-of-sale data. Over the past decade, investors also began subscribing. Today, he says Nintendo is the most sought-after company from hedge fund clients, which come from as far away as Singapore and New York.
Media Create methodology:
The 25-year-old firm distinguishes itself through close relationships with about 2,000 gaming shops and dozens of publishers, which provide Hosokawa's analysts with weekly point-of-sale and shipment data on hardware and software in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
The data isn't comprehensive, but his analysts extrapolate with what Hosokawa calls "keikensoku." The term is usually translated in English as "rule of thumb," but it literally means "measuring by experience." Clients pay $20,000 or more a year for reports that forecast local and international trends.
Note that they're an 11-person firm:
Hosokawa's 11-person firm is gaining prominence amid increasing disagreement over prospects for the Switch. Media Create's latest data show Nintendo should easily hit its revised target when it reports results next month, suggesting shares could get a much-needed boost after a dismal performance last year.
Prediction for Nintendo Switch's lifecycle:
The Switch is selling strongly across all demographics -- from kids and teenagers to adults -- a feat achieved only by Nintendo's DS handheld device, its best-selling hardware product in history, Hosokawa said. That bodes well for long-term sales.
"We expect its life-cycle to be seven years," he said, during an interview at Media Create's office in Tokyo's Jinbocho district.
Media Create sales data might no longer be free after a company policy review next month:
Media Create's free weekly data dumps have also made it a popular source for gamers, retail investors and arm-chair analysts online. Hosokawa said that is his way of giving back to the game industry, though he's unsure if the practice will continue after a company policy review next month.
"With our data, we're trying to be the infrastructure for the whole industry," he said, explaining plans to expand his data collection to China and Southeast Asia. "I'd like to think that's why overseas investors trust us."
There's more in the link.
When a company is no longer giving data for free, it's usually because of the stakeholders putting pressure on the company, e.g. publishers, clients, etc.
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