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Noobie

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
755
Code:
Days Remaining     FFXV          DQ XI          MH:XX (3DS)      MH:W
20              330 (+1)        520 (+14)       854 (+31)        955 (+27)
19              331 (+1)        527 (+7)        873 (+19)        991 (+36)
18              339 (+8)        530 (+3)        886 (+13)        1027 (+36)
17              345 (+6)        544 (+14)       905 (+19)        1054 (+27)
16              348 (+3)        553 (+9)        921 (+16)        1082 (+28)
15              352 (+4)        560 (+7)        947 (+26)        1100 (+18)
14              354 (+2)        579 (+9)        990 (+43)        1127 (+27)
13              365 (+11)       592 (+13)       1005 (+15)
12              371 (+6)        613 (+21)       1017 (+12)
11              379 (+8)        621 (+8)        1034 (+17)
10              389 (+10)       634 (+13)       1047 (+13)
09              400 (+11)       643 (+9)        1059 (+12)
08              409 (+9)        660 (+17)       1082 (+23)
07              416 (+7)        685 (+25)       1104 (+22)
06              420 (+4)        708 (+23)       1145 (+41)
05              431 (+11)       735 (+27)       1172 (+27)
04              436 (+5)        754 (+19)       1215 (+43)
03              454 (+18)       773 (+19)       1225 (+10)
02              464 (+10)       778 (+5)        1261 (+34)
01              470 (+8)        800 (+22)       1305 (+44)
FW Sales(MC)   690.471          950.315          848.467
HW Sales       118.350           93.356           42.279
Multiplier      1.4              1.18              0.65

Just to add a little more perspective to these numbers, below are the first week sales of Top 15 PS4 games on COMG

So COMG multiplier can be from 700 to 1400

Top15.png
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
Do we think it's fair to say that the LTDs for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Pokken Tournament DX will eventually end up about twice as high as their Wii U counterparts? If so, then if Bayonetta 2 and Tropical Freeze post similar percentages, they'd end up around 100,000 and 250,000 LTD respectively, depending on your tracker of choice.

Also, it's very cool to see low-key releases such as Xenoverse 2, Sumikko Gurashi, Snipperclips, and FIFA (in Japan at least) on their way to 100,000 or well beyond. Bandai Namco needs to get Tales of, Taiko Drum, and those other games with global appeal announced and released ASAP.

Finally, if ARMS and 1-2 Switch can average a little more than 1,000 sales per week (again, depending on the tracker) for the next two years, they'll both pass 500,000. Seems inevitable to me, despite the apparent lack of future updates.
oh man if only xenoblade 2 could reach 300k that would be a dream come true.
 

skullwaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,267
2017 46 {2017.11.06 - 2017.11.12} 20. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 3.068 / 3.068 <0-20%>
2017 47 {2017.11.13 - 2017.11.19} 21. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 2.433 / 5.501 <0-20%>
2017 48 {2017.11.20 - 2017.11.26} 20. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 2.743 / 8.244 <20-40%>
2017 49 {2017.11.27 - 2017.12.03} 29. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 2.665 / 10.909 <20-40%>
2017 50 {2017.12.04 - 2017.12.10} 00. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 3.182 / 14.091 <20-40%>
2017 51 {2017.12.11 - 2017.12.17} 29. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 4.472 / 18.563 <40-60%>
2017 52 {2017.12.18 - 2017.12.24} 28. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 8.731 / 27.294 <40-60%>
2017 53 {2017.12.25 - 2017.12.31} 19. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 6.496 / 33.790 <60-80%>
2018 01 {2018.01.01 - 2018.01.07} 16. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.280) - 9.706 / 43.496 <80-100%>

I knew this game would have incredible legs going into the holidays. The physical release has definitely paid off and should continue to sell over time. 100k+ lifetime seems like a possibility.
 

sinonobu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,027
Didn't realize the game had such great legs until now...

Seeing it go over 100k would be quite a sight.
 

Kenzodielocke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,853
How will MH:W stand be digitally in Japan? I feel like the incentive to buy that digitally is higher than with something like Dragon Quest XI.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,037
As you know, many stores are sold out (Switch and many switch games) this week. Today, restocks for Switch and some switch games, not enough, not big quantities, shortages continue for many stores:

How low shipments are we looking at? It'd be pretty disappointing if Nintendo weren't able to ship 50K a week considering how much they're planning to make going forward.

Whilst it's not good having shortages of HW and SW it does show that the demand is still huge.

Just to add a little more perspective to these numbers, below are the first week sales of Top 15 PS4 games on COMG

So COMG multiplier can be from 700 to 1400

Top15.png

Pretty good signs for MHW. Obviously you can't read too much into comg numbers too much but 1 million plus looks a certainty. Starting to feel a bit better but my high prediction but it's hard to know really.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
ARMS is the best selling fighting game of the generation, which is quite amusing per se, given that it is a new franchise. It bounced back during holidays after having almost disappeared from charts. It might reach 450-500k over time which is a big result for a game of this genre.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
ARMS is the best selling fighting game of the generation, which is quite amusing per se, given that it is a new franchise. It bounced back during holidays after having almost disappeared from charts. It might reach 450-500k over time which is a big result for a game of this genre.
Arms never left the charts.

Media Create had it at 20-30th place every week.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
No it wouldn't, it would be at the 13th place. Also what this has to do with anything anyway?
I was just counting retail copies sold. No reason to get defensive, I was just putting it into perspective because some people were still doubting its success.

Edit: Sorry, I mixed up my MC and famitsu numbers, it is 13th on famitsu.
 
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Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
That's why I wrote "almost disappeared". It left the Top 30 on Famitsu for a few weeks. Unlike Zelda, which kept selling in high positions, ARMS dropped more on a weekly basis so seeing selling so well during holidays is a surprise.
Famitsu likely substantially undertracked ARMS during those weeks it was putting out weekly sales almost a third of what Media create a dengeki were saying for some of those weeks.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
oh man if only xenoblade 2 could reach 300k that would be a dream come true.


We will see in a couple of weeks famitsu digital sales estimates
With those, the game could already be at 200k
300k seems the high ceiling but not that far fetched

On another note, ARMS legs are incredible
Dengeki even put it at almost 409k without digital
 

Fdkn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
718
Spain
Dengeki says PS4 sold 177,527 software this week, so adding the other ways to get games on the system I think we can put to rest the previously stated worry of many people buying the console and never turning it on until MHW.
 
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OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
With Fire Emblem possibly missing Q2 Mario + Rabbids could be the next small surprise hit. Advertising is rising from Nintendo and it looks to find an audience among Switch owners.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Not at all. Did you follow the previous concern?

You weren't quoting anyone so I don't know to what particular concern you're answering, but I don't see the relation between poor software number and the conclusion that people will still buy software after buying Monster Hunter World ? If anything, it seems more likely to me that you're giving evidence of the opposite.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
You weren't quoting anyone so I don't know to what particular concern you're answering, but I don't see the relation between poor software number and the conclusion that people will still buy software after buying Monster Hunter World ? If anything, it seems more likely to me that you're giving evidence of the opposite.
It was said earlier that people bought PS4 this week for MHW and nothing else. Basically buying the hardware now and no games, letting the hardware sit there, waiting for MHW to release. I guess that is what he is referring to.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
With Fire Emblem possibly missing Q2 Mario + Rabbids could be the next small surprise hit. Advertising is rising from Nintendo and it looks to find an audience among Switch owners.
I expect a LTD between 200K and 500K for Mario + Rabbids in Japan.
The game is good (and strategy games can perform well in Japan) and Ubisoft Milan did a good job to shape it as a Nintendo-like effort.
Basically I think it will sell as a good Mario spinoff (on a good selling Nintendo console) despite being an Ubisoft game.
 
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Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I expect a LTD between 200K and 500K for Mario + Rabbids in Japan.
The game is good (and strategy games can perform good in Japan) and developers did a good job to shape it like a Nintendo-like effort.
Basically I think it will sell as a good Mario spinoff.
It'll be interesting to see. In the UK, I believe M+R opened at around 25k, and throughout the year it ended up selling around 100k after just over 4 months of sales (Source). If Rabbids opened at a respectable 50k+, then I think 200k is easily achieved, and it might go up to 400k depending on exactly how well its legs hold (with Japan being a bigger and faster-growing market than UK for Switch).
 
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Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
It'll be interesting to see. In the UK, I believe M+R opened at around 25k, and throughout the year it ended up selling around 100k after a whole year of sales (Source). If Rabbids opened at a respectable 50k+, then I think 200k is easily achieved, and it might go up to 400k depending on exactly how well its legs hold (with Japan being a bigger and faster-growing market than UK for Switch).
It came out August 29th, that's 4 months or so, I wouldn't say it had "a whole year of sales" :-)
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Opening of Mario + Rabbids will give a better first estimate of where it could end but for now I think a logical LTD is 200-300k.
 

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
I was just counting retail copies sold. No reason to get defensive, I was just putting it into perspective because some people were still doubting its success.

Edit: Sorry, I mixed up my MC and famitsu numbers, it is 13th on famitsu.

Huh? Where did i got defensive? I just didn't understand your post.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Dengeki says PS4 sold 177,527 software this week, so adding the other ways to get games on the system I think we can put to rest the previously stated worry of many people buying the console and never turning it on until MHW.

It was said earlier that people bought PS4 this week for MHW and nothing else. Basically buying the hardware now and no games, letting the hardware sit there, waiting for MHW to release. I guess that is what he is referring to.

This is assuming that all new adopters have purchased a game and existing userbase almost bought nothing.

According to Dengeki, PS4 sold 110,929 units, while software sold 177,527 units. This means that if all new adopters have purchased a (retail) game, existing users purchased a grand total of 66,598 games. In Week 1. The so-called "Sony week". Of course, it might well be that a good portion of new adopters haven't purchased anything because it is really depressing to think that an almost 6 million installed base have purchased below 70,000 units of software in Week 1 after the "peak year".

Of course, we don't have data to state with certainty one thing over the other. Wherever we look the data, though, a depressing picture emerges.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
This is assuming that all new adopters have purchased a game and existing userbase almost bought nothing.

According to Dengeki, PS4 sold 110,929 units, while software sold 177,527 units. This means that if all new adopters have purchased a (retail) game, existing users purchased a grand total of 66,598 games. In Week 1. The so-called "Sony week". Of course, it might well be that a good portion of new adopters haven't purchased anything because it is really depressing to think that an almost 6 million installed base have purchased below 70,000 units of software in Week 1 after the "peak year".

Of course, we don't have data to state with certainty one thing over the other. Wherever we look the data, though, a depressing picture emerges.
Thats true. Theres also used game sales and digital. But like you say, we dont have the data to say if lots of people bought the hardware without any software, so its indeed just guessing from either side.

----

When was the last time "Sony week" really boosted sales by the way? Since the term has originated from somewhere.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
As I had warned with GEO pre-orders, mario party: the top 100 is a little surprise, in 2 weeks, over 100k:

Media-create:
05./05. [3DS] Mario Party: The Top 100 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.12.28} (¥4.980) - 51.818 / 103.999 (-1%)

Famitsu:
05./05. [3DS] Mario Party: The Top 100 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.12.28} (¥4.980) - 64.885 / 111.073 <80-100%> (+40%)

Dengeki:
04./04. [3DS] Mario Party: The Top 100 (Nintendo) {2017.12.28} - 57,967 / 108,423
 

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,377
wasn't MP: Top 100 slammed by reviews and critics?

I wonder what made it appealing to all those buyers.
 

Turrican3

Member
Oct 27, 2017
781
Italy
Things will improve next weeks.

It was expected if Nintendo shipped everything available for December and still wasn't enough January supply would be tight.
And yet as of this morning I still read (someone replied on Mr. Serkan Toto's tweet report of Switch hw+games soldout) people arguing about artificial scarcity.

Guess I'll never understand those conspiracy theories...
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
And yet as of this morning I still read (someone replied on Mr. Serkan Toto's tweet report of Switch hw+games soldout) people arguing about artificial scarcity.

Guess I'll never understand those conspiracy theories...

Hell yeah, Japan: Switch ~ 3,5m in 10 months, splatoon 2 over 1,9m (physical), SMO ~ 1,5m, MK8D ~ 1,2m
USA: Record for Switch in 10 months with 4,8 m, same in France (over 900.000)

Nintendo "organizes" a very weird shortage lol
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Thats true. Theres also used game sales and digital. But like you say, we dont have the data to say if lots of people bought the hardware without any software, so its indeed just guessing from either side.

----

When was the last time "Sony week" really boosted sales by the way? Since the term has originated from somewhere.

Used market exists for other platforms too. PS gamers can be more digital-savvy but still software sales are quite depressing even considering hardware sales. Anyway, given such low software numbers, there is really nothing positive to spin about.

As for "Sony week", historically Sony hardware has seen bigger growth WOW in Week 1. Point is, this year Sony software is really weak. This shows the Sony inability to create long-term interest in software and, more importantly, an older audience that buys at launch and doesn't allow for long-lasting effects.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
Used market exists for other platforms too. PS gamers can be more digital-savvy but still software sales are quite depressing even considering hardware sales. Anyway, given such low software numbers, there is really nothing positive to spin about.

As for "Sony week", historically Sony hardware has seen bigger growth WOW in Week 1. Point is, this year Sony software is really weak. This shows the Sony inability to create long-term interest in software and, more importantly, an older audience that buys at launch and doesn't allow for long-lasting effects.
Thats true, but it was only talk about those who bought a PS4 this week (last week) and if they bought games as well. I also dont think anyone was trying to spin it any way.

How does this week compare to previous years? Did anything change this year?
 
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schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Dengeki says PS4 sold 177,527 software this week, so adding the other ways to get games on the system I think we can put to rest the previously stated worry of many people buying the console and never turning it on until MHW.

My God what a completely atrocious number. Looking at that number in context, yes- MH World and not actual software on the shelves was clearly the driver for hardware sales. Ugh.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
With Fire Emblem possibly missing Q2 Mario + Rabbids could be the next small surprise hit. Advertising is rising from Nintendo and it looks to find an audience among Switch owners.
i mean the only thing im really surprised anout is that nintendo kept the rabbids name in the title. this has a potential to go up to 500k plus due to the mario name alone.
 
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