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Media Create Sales: Week 11, 2021 (Mar 15 - Mar 21)

schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
I am sure I will repost this in an hour, but a few thoughts on RISEGATE:

1- As Chris has posted, the typical opening for MH has been around 2M. Flat out. There is clearly a ceiling (but oh what a ceiling!)

2- World did incredibly/amazingly well first week and actually opened on par with previous games. (and to reiterate for literally the 30th time...you don't get much more wrong on something than I did on World). It did not show good legs though, which is where I would expect Rise to do much better.

3-Unless you're tbone, expecting anything more than a maximum of 2.2-2.3M FW was never realistic. So a 2M debut is...right in line with that. Was it undershipped? Sure. But its not like Capcom is waiting a month for restocks.

4-You can look at it the Oregano way..."OMG IT SOLD THE SAME AMOUNT AS WORLD IN JAPAN..THEY NEVER SHOULD HAVE GREENLIT THIS GAME"..or, you can look at the worldwide shipment numbers and realize that a 50/50 split between Japan and the rest of the world, while still not as good as World, is still a massive improvement over PSP/3DS games and a very good sign.
 
Oregano

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
schuelma said:
please please tell me this is just you doing your schtick.
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Keep in mind this in response to the idea they purposely undershipped because they don't want it to sell as much as World so they avoid scrutiny from shareholders when World 2 isn't on Switch.

That makes no sense because it would only look better for them the higher the shipment was for Rise, especially in Japan where there's actual growth potential vs World.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
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Jan 16, 2020
9,071
Oregano said:
Keep in mind this in response to the idea they purposely undershipped because they don't want it to sell as much as World so they avoid scrutiny from shareholders when World 2 isn't on Switch.

That makes no sense because it would only look better for them the higher the shipment was for Rise, especially in Japan where there's actual growth potential vs World.
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The same could be said vice versa, why isn't Rise on the other platforms as well since World is doing better numbers?
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Oregano said:
Keep in mind this in response to the idea they purposely undershipped because they don't want it to sell as much as World so they avoid scrutiny from shareholders when World 2 isn't on Switch.

That makes no sense because it would only look better for them the higher the shipment was for Rise, especially in Japan where there's actual growth potential vs World.
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So you took the opportunity to respond to a dumb idea with bait.
 
Spiegel

Spiegel

Member
Oct 26, 2017
420
Chris posted this three days ago and you should all read this post re: potential lost sales.

Chris1964 said:
Since we have again the usual first week sell-out for Monster Hunter at retail there is one thing that has been pointed many times but still hasn't been done understandable. We aren't in 2000-2010 anymore with digital stores existing and there isn't some kind of crazy demand that hasn't been covered because retailers have run out of stock. It's not the typical single player JRPG that Japanese will sell back after one playthrough and majority of those who want to obtain it will have no hesitation to obtain it through digital channels.
From all Monster Hunters that faced this situation, Portable 3rd was the one in really big problem. The game went out of stock at opening week basically from launch day and wasn't available on PS Store until 7 months later. That limited its launch sales by a lot and contributed to its huge following weeks.
MH4 was a similar case but not to the same extend. It faced extreme supply problems at retail for a month before stock normalised but eShop was there and despite being 3DS it had big download numbers.
MHW was the opposite since PS4 owners were already familiar with PS Store and biggest part of demand was covered at first week eliminating its legs.
MHR is somewhere in the middle. eShop is alive and strong, most of those who wanted to get the game at launch did it and now it remains to be seen how far Switch userbase can take it.
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Oregano

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
storres said:
The same could be said vice versa, why isn't Rise on the other platforms as well since World is doing better numbers?
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That's exactly the point. The idea in favour of doing Rise as a distinct product is that even if it doesn't do as well, it can reach an audience that World failed to(by selling 4m+ in Japan) which is undermined if you don't provide enough stock to demonstrate that.
 
Vinnk

Vinnk

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,969
Japan
会津Aizuの復讐 said:
That illustration always made me imagine your village as a magical town. (like on of those in Totoro)
So... i made a simple animation with it . i hope you use this GIF in your next report :D
t5i29h2.gif
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I love this so very much!
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
Oregano said:
That's exactly the point. The idea in favour of doing Rise as a distinct product is that even if it doesn't do as well, it can reach an audience that World failed to(by selling 4m+ in Japan) which is undermined if you don't provide enough stock to demonstrate that.
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The game did excellent! Capcom is happy by the performance so far. Anything is else is rather weird.
 
cw_sasuke

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,490
Didnt expect people to get mad for people stating the obvious fact, that MHR could have had a stronger launch in Japan if Capcom shipped more copies xD

No one is losing sleep because of it, but it is what it is.
 
NediarPT88

NediarPT88

Member
Oct 29, 2017
15,191
Sandfox said:
The thing though is that a game is sold out at retail that doesn't mean a person will buy it digitally. A game being sold out still potentially leads to lost sales even if it's available digitally.
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I mentioned that, I'm refering to the people who would usually buy a physical version if possible, but are presented with a situation where they can't get one and will instead go digital because they want to play the game asap.

I'm not expecting every single person who couldn't get a physical copy to go digital instead ofc. But I assume those will wait a bit more for a new shipment and won't just go "forget it, I'm not buying this game anymore".
 
Glio

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,578
Spain
I think the only undership danger is with JRPG because those end up on the second-hand market right away.
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
cw_sasuke said:
Didnt expect people to get mad for people stating the obvious fact, that MHR could have had a stronger launch in Japan if Capcom shipped more copies xD

No one is losing sleep because of it, but it is what it is.
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Right, I'm not even sure what's happening anymore. This discussion wasn't even about total numbers being bad or anything, it was about the fact that 1.4M shipped for the first week is obviously not enough and Capcom will definitely have known that. Wondering why they decided to ship so low is a perfectly valid line of inquiry, it's not 'fanboys mad about a record not being broken.'

Some good explanations have been posited, for example that the game is expected to have legs and therefore pushing for digital at launch should have only a small to negligible impact on total sales. But a good part of the discussion is now just a 'did not, did too' about who implied what with their comment. I think we need to God of War PS4 this one (i.e. reboot the discussion somehow).
 
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fiendcode

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,940
NediarPT88 said:
I mentioned that, I'm refering to the people who would usually buy a physical version if possible, but are presented with a situation where they can't get one and will instead go digital because they want to play the game asap.

I'm not expecting every single person who couldn't get a physical copy to go digital instead ofc. But I assume those will wait a bit more for a new shipment and won't just go "forget it, I'm not buying this game anymore".
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It's a loss because this game could've sold significantly more. We're probably looking at around 2m total packaged + digital but the reality is it probably could've exceeded that packaged alone if supply was there.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
fiendcode said:
It's a loss because this game could've sold significantly more. We're probably looking at around 2m total packaged + digital but the reality is it probably could've exceeded that packaged alone if supply was there.
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Ok, but if we had 2M physical I doubt digital is nearly as high as it is. Like I said..there *is* a ceiling for MH debuts.
 
fiendcode

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,940
schuelma said:
Ok, but if we had 2M physical I doubt digital is nearly as high as it is. Like I said..there *is* a ceiling for MH debuts.
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Sure it'd sell less digitally but 2m isn't the true ceiling either. It only ends up there because Capcom continually underships (P3rd, 4, X, World and now Rise). Rise sticks out though as it's probably the most blatant case of undershipping.
 
shadow2810

shadow2810

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,249
schuelma said:
Ok, but if we had 2M physical I doubt digital is nearly as high as it is. Like I said..there *is* a ceiling for MH debuts.
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We are talking about shipping ~1m less than the ceiling on a platform with many record breaking sales games during a period where "I have to stay at home might as well buy game to kill time"
 
sfortunato

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Oregano said:
That's exactly the point. The idea in favour of doing Rise as a distinct product is that even if it doesn't do as well, it can reach an audience that World failed to(by selling 4m+ in Japan) which is undermined if you don't provide enough stock to demonstrate that.
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The idea that Rise needed t sell 4m+ (which can still do it) in order to prove it achieved a new audience is quite weird.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
shadow2810 said:
We are talking about shipping ~1m less than the ceiling on a platform with many record breaking sales games during a period where "I have to stay at home might as well buy game to kill time"
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Sure. I'm not denying the game was undershipped. But this isn't a case (cough SE cough) where the game is going to be sold out for weeks- from all accounts there are sizable restocks this week.
 
NediarPT88

NediarPT88

Member
Oct 29, 2017
15,191
fiendcode said:
It's a loss because this game could've sold significantly more. We're probably looking at around 2m total packaged + digital but the reality is it probably could've exceeded that packaged alone if supply was there.
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I'm sure it could, but maybe Capcom prefers having a higher profit now with digital sales and wait for those physical sales later from the people who really want to own the game that way.

If the revenue difference between physical and digital really is ~20% for a publisher, that's a lot of money they get by people who would usually go physical but went digital instead because they didn't want to wait.
 
Sanlei

Sanlei

Member
Oct 25, 2017
701
Shpping less on a three times bigger base with highest sales yet is sure quite something.
At least publisher leads can be reassured. Targeting the west stays the winning strategy even for Japan centric IPs like MH.

April Jokes aside, at least hardware sales are expected. 62k PS5 surely means seeing at least an PS4 game in the Top 30. (Maybe even Balan PS5 lol)
 
MatrixMan.exe

MatrixMan.exe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,501
Zedark said:
Right, I'm not even sure what's happening anymore. This discussion wasn't even about total numbers being bad or anything, it was about the fact that 1.4M shipped for the first week is obviously not enough and Capcom will definitely have known that. Wondering why they decided to ship so low is a perfectly valid line of inquiry, it's not 'fanboys mad about a record not being broken.'

Some good explanations have been posited, for example that the game is expected to have legs and therefore pushing for digital at launch should have only a small to negligible impact on total sales. But a good part of the discussion is now just a 'did not, did too' about who implied what with their comment. I think we need to God of War PS4 this one (i.e. reboot the discussion somehow).
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Myself and another poster made a comment that some people seem too invested in Rise beating World, because the tone of some of the posts seem a little over dramatic considering digital exists and we know the game has debuted well. Not to mentioned we made these comments hours ago and the only reason the conversation has continued is because people keep bringing it up console warring and fanboyism, often not even in direct response to our posts. I still stand by what I said, but it's ultimately just an observation and not in anyway commentary of the entire discussion as I've already said multiple times, just a few posts here and there.
 
foxuzamaki

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,587
Zedark said:
Right, I'm not even sure what's happening anymore. This discussion wasn't even about total numbers being bad or anything, it was about the fact that 1.4M shipped for the first week is obviously not enough and Capcom will definitely have known that. Wondering why they decided to ship so low is a perfectly valid line of inquiry, it's not 'fanboys mad about a record not being broken.'

Some good explanations have been posited, for example that the game is expected to have legs and therefore pushing for digital at launch should have only a small to negligible impact on total sales. But a good part of the discussion is now just a 'did not, did too' about who implied what with their comment. I think we need to God of War PS4 this one (i.e. reboot the discussion somehow).
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Ive been reading the thread so far up to this point and the console war narrative was completely forced as people who hardly or never come into this thread subtly and not so subtly imply that we just want it to do better than world or to tell us that it wont matter because rise will sell well anyways even tho we already know this, because we're regulars to the thread and saw what chris said. But we cant do more than speculate what rise's sales will be in the future. Because right now its launch, so we'rediscussing...launch sales
 
fiendcode

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,940
The thing is World wasn't even really in the calculus. The targets for Rise packaged were games like MH4 (1.8m) or MHP3 (2m).
 
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