Thats like a lot of games.
Is there any chance Summer 2018 will be smaller than summer 2017 for switch ?
Seems like 2018 has it in the bag release wise, but 2017 had Splatoon 2.
From a HW standpoint it should be no issue right ? Irc Summer 2017 still had supply issues in Japan.
I also think 2018 has it in the beg, by orders of magnitude.
In terms of titles last year we had an extremely slow periods between MK8D, Arms and Splatoon 2. With Switch hardware only having a boost during MK8D launch and Arms launch rest of the time it was selling like an average of
27K per week. This year especially during this period should do much better with Minecraft and Mario Tennis Aces both releasing. Regarding July-August, I don't see why we won't see bigger sales this year either. Last year you had Splatoon 2 and MHXX - this year you still have all the evergreens, Splatoon 2 with OctoExpansion and we would see releases like MTA, Minecraft, Taiko, Octopath, Inazuma Eleven etc
Week 17: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe -
284.823
Week 21: Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers -
16.404
Week 22: Seiken Densetsu Collection -
29.564
Week 24: Arms -
100.652
Week 26: LEGO City Undercover -
5.351
Week 17: Switch -
76.679
Week 24: Switch -
37.709
Week 28: Switch -
31.906
Total Sales after MK8D launch:
272.824
Average hardware sales between week 18 and 28:
27.282
Below are the weekly software sales for those weeks:
Switch SW Sales 2017:
Week 18:
122.066
Week 19:
51.766
Week 20:
42.567
Week 21:
56.612
Week 22:
64.949
Week 23:
33.480
Week 24:
133.127
Week 25:
50.605
Week 26:
48.225
Week 27:
33.919
Week 28:
32.411
Total:
669.727
Switch SW Sales 2018:
Week 18:
235.243
DKTF -
88K
Labo Variety -
32K
Kirby -
31K
Splatoon 2 -
29K
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe -
23K
Snack World -
12K
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild -
11K
Super Mario Odyssey -
11K
Switch should build up a huge lead during the upcoming weeks when compared to 2018 and I think Summer Vacation will also be bigger in terms of hardware supply and software sales. There is really a possibility that we see 300% increase in sales compared to last Obon. There is only so much one game selling 1M between July and September can do - last year you also saw the release of DQXI on 3DS and PS4 this year all major games released during the summer will be on the Switch and there would be greater hardware availability compared to last year.
This year we can all agree that the period between Week 2 and Week 12 was extremely slow in terms of new releases yet on average
144K software was sold on the Switch according to M-C. With MTA and Minecraft releasing I can see the next 10 weeks having an average of around
150K which would result in a
123% increase to software sales on the Switch YoY for this period. Overall if we take this week into account I think we could be looking at pretty decent sales from the evergreen titles due to 30-40K hardware baseline and a lot more releases compared to 2017. I personally think that Mario Tennis Aces, Minecraft, Octopath, Captain Toad, Sushi Striker and Octopath will together end up outselling 2017 software total on their own without even taking into account DKTF.
Week 23: Sushi Striker
>100K
Week 25: Mario Tennis Aces
>250K
Week 25: Minecraft
>150K
Week 28: Octopath Traveler
>150K
Week 28: Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
>50K
Now in terms of the evergreen titles you have Splat 2 potentially getting a DLC, DKTF showing legs after a strong launch, MK8D continuing to hover above 10K, Labo Variety/Zelda/SMO/Snack World all continuing to remain in the top 20.
DKTF average of >20K per week
>200K
Splatoon 2 average of >17K per week
>170K
MK8D average of >12K per week
>120K
Labo Variety average of >10K per week
>100K
Zelda average of >8K per week
>80K
SMO average of >7K per week
>70K
Snack World average of >5K per week
>50K
So just these titles if they can maintain this type of performance after their very good sales during week 18, the total sales would amount to
1.49M
Now personally I think those numbers are achievable. Especially for Mario Tennis Aces, Splatoon 2 & DKTF I even feel I'm being conservative.
The 300% increase after that would be mainly due to my expectations about this summer being particularly big for the Switch in terms of hardware sales. I believe that during the period July 31st - Sept 3rd Switch only sold
291.736 which amounts to
58.347 sales per week on average. This year I think that expecting at least
>90K on average and
>450K sales
Top Sellers Switch Week 29-Week 35:
1) Splatoon 2 -
1.056.500
2) Monster Hunter Double Cross -
111.396
3) MK8D -
84.660
4) Arms -
36.413
5) Zelda:Breath of the Wild -
33.051
Total:
1.322.020
As you can see Obon for the Switch was primarily just Splatoon 2 last year. MHXX was able to sell >100K but even MK8D didn't benefit too much from the summer vacation. Splatoon 2, DQXI releases I thought last year sucked out the air for other games - so this year I expect the Switch list to be far bigger and with far more sales concentrated across both 2017 and 2018 titles. This is why I expect Switch to end up close to 4M Software sales in Japan during Obon even without a game like Splatoon 2 launching. You have Splat 2, Minecraft, Taiko, Inazuma, MK8D, Octopath, Mario Tennis Aces, Labo Variety etc all poised to get great sales this year during Obon. Nintendo needs to basically achieve a number close to how much they shipped across 3DS/Switch for this period relying mainly on the Switch. I think the ration will be 80:20 compared to 2017 when due to the DQXI and 2DSXL release 3DS managed to outsell the Switch during this period with
335.293 hardware sales. I personally am expecting Nintendo to ship around
500K during this period to Japan this year and only around
100K 3DS units.