Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2019 (May 27 - Jun 02)

[Chris1964]

Still cant believe it

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Many Japanese IPs were killed by forcing transition only to PS4 after Sony's decision to abandon handheld market. PS4 or death was a reality for some time.

Sony has close relationship with third parties for decades, it's expected some of them feeling loyal to them even with Nintendo's success around this time.

 

[Raijinto]

Why do people like the frog avatar guy and now this new user argue vigorously against having games on more platforms. They're not even doing a good job so I want to understand what's in it if either of you don't mind please.

 

[AniHawk]

Is the lack of a Switch edition for arise a skill issue? Similar to how Falcom can't get cutscenes to run on ps4 without the framerate dropping to 10 fps from time to time.

AniHawk

So, in other words

"if we wanted to chase the domestic market, we would put it on mobile."

And platform/third party relations matter.

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a bit about mobile, sure. but they look at the switch's marketshare very differently than the ps4's, despite the switch growing faster and generally being better in the west for their kind of games. it's less about getting behind mobile and more about the answer to the question of, 'why only ps4? why not also switch?'

 

[Encephalon]

a bit about mobile, sure. but they look at the switch's marketshare very differently than the ps4's, despite the switch growing faster and generally being better in the west for their kind of games. it's less about getting behind mobile and more about the answer to the question of, 'why only ps4? why not also switch?'

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Which is why I asked if skill was an issue (in downscaling a PS4 game and getting it to run smoothly on the platform). Because even if PS4 is the lead platform, yeah, Tales should be on Switch.

 

[AniHawk]

Many Japanese IPs were killed by forcing transition only to PS4 after Sony's decision to abandon handheld market. PS4 or death was a reality for some time.

Sony has close relationship with third parties for decades, it's expected some of them feeling loyal to them even with Nintendo's success around this time.

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in japan, the traditional playstation line didn't continue onto consoles. it went from ps2 to psp mainly, and ended with vita. these developers who may literally not know anything else are probably stuck with sony in some fashion despite it being a really obvious doomsday scenario for them in the next 2-3 years.

ps4 will fizzle out. ps5 may launch later than in the west. siea will continue to prioritize aaa games and western development over japanese games in terms of marketing support and what content should be localized (siea's m.o. since the 90s). ps5 will be a smaller platform in japan than ps4, and it will lead to devs going to mobile, trying to become aaa developers, or going to the market that actually exists for them.

 

[AniHawk]

Which is why I asked if skill was an issue (in downscaling a PS4 game and getting it to run smoothly on the platform). Because even if PS4 is the lead platform, yeah, Tales should be on Switch.

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some of it is skill. nintendo offers technical support (not actual development but can teach a team) when it comes to porting games. since ue4 works on switch, this really should have been an issue. i have to imagine there's some kind of tie in with sony in some fashion. in addition to the game itself, maybe an anime, some promotion with a soundtrack, or what have you.

 

[Raijinto]

in japan, the traditional playstation line didn't continue onto consoles. it went from ps2 to psp mainly, and ended with vita. these developers who may literally not know anything else are probably stuck with sony in some fashion despite it being a really obvious doomsday scenario for them in the next 2-3 years.

ps4 will fizzle out. ps5 may launch later than in the west. siea will continue to prioritize aaa games and western development over japanese games in terms of marketing support and what content should be localized (siea's m.o. since the 90s). ps5 will be a smaller platform in japan than ps4, and it will lead to devs going to mobile, trying to become aaa developers, or going to the market that actually exists for them.

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When it's put like that it really does look like a disaster waiting to happen. Games that have already made the jump like MH, RE and FF should be fine from their WW sales but most of the rest need to think about the long term ramifications of things.

 

[IamFlying]

How often do people here call publishers dumb for skipping the Switch just to see later that the IP meets new record sales worldwide?

Third party sales for Switch in Japan weren't that high to risk to canabilize their titles' international competitiveness?

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That's true only for one or two ganes, most japanese multiplatform games sell more on Switch than on other platforms. Even RE Relevations had most sales on Switch.

 

[Encephalon]

in japan, the traditional playstation line didn't continue onto consoles. it went from ps2 to psp mainly, and ended with vita. these developers who may literally not know anything else are probably stuck with sony in some fashion despite it being a really obvious doomsday scenario for them in the next 2-3 years.

ps4 will fizzle out. ps5 may launch later than in the west. siea will continue to prioritize aaa games and western development over japanese games in terms of marketing support and what content should be localized (siea's m.o. since the 90s). ps5 will be a smaller platform in japan than ps4, and it will lead to devs going to mobile, trying to become aaa developers, or going to the market that actually exists for them.

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Shouldn't PS4 have fizzled out much sooner than it did?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Shouldn't PS4 have fizzled out much sooner than it did?

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...I mean the Wii U was its competition. Once it became clear Wii U was gonna fizzle out a lot faster than people would think, PS4 became the main home platform in Japan with Vita backing it and no other options until the Switch came out.

 

[AniHawk]

Shouldn't PS4 have fizzled out much sooner than it did?

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it would have if it didn't have the ps vita to prop it up in its early years. monster hunter was the last game to support its baseline. and maybe to consider it in another way, ps4 is doing 10k a week right now, but it could be another 20 months before playstation platform arrives.

 

[Deleted member 31092]

Changing topic to market leaders, it seems like Splatoon 3 may be out relatively soon as the last Splatoon 2 Splatfest will decide the setting of the next game.

 

[Encephalon]

...I mean the Wii U was its competition. Once it became clear Wii U was gonna fizzle out a lot faster than people would think, PS4 became the main home platform in Japan with Vita backing it and no other options until the Switch came out.

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That's true, but I feel like part of the reason that everything has transitioned to mobile and handheld platforms is not just because that it's actually more attractive to the Japanese market, but because devs dropped the ball with PS3 and failed to transition any sort of audience to the Wii, exacerbating the situation. So with the Wii U and the PS4, even if the Wii U failed, it seems like the PS4 did better than it ever should have. After all, there was still 3DS.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Changing topic to market leaders, it seems like Splatoon 3 may be out relatively soon as the last Splatoon 2 Splatfest will decide the setting of the next game.

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Little do you know this just sets up the next SMTV trailer.

That's true, but I feel like part of the reason that everything has transitioned to mobile and handheld platforms is not just because that it's actually more attractive to the Japanese market, but because devs dropped the ball with PS3 and failed to transition any sort of audience to the Wii, exacerbating the situation. So with the Wii U and the PS4, even if the Wii U failed, it seems like the PS4 did better than it ever should have. After all, there was still 3DS.

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That's likely because of devs understanding that despite its anemic lifespan in Japan, there's still money to be had in Asia, where the PS4 was also popular and Nintendo relatively more muted in the recent generation.

 

[Encephalon]

it would have if it didn't have the ps vita to prop it up in its early years. monster hunter was the last game to support its baseline. and maybe to consider it in another way, ps4 is doing 10k a week right now, but it could be another 20 months before playstation platform arrives.

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Oh, because of the multiplats. I guess that's true.

I wonder how things might be if FFVII had come out on time. I guess nothing could have really helped, given it's received its most important titles in a while and then flatlined.

That's likely because of devs understanding that despite its anemic lifespan in Japan, there's still money to be had in Asia, where the PS4 was also popular and Nintendo relatively more muted in the recent generation.

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Ohh.

 

[Adventureracing]

That's true, but I feel like part of the reason that everything has transitioned to mobile and handheld platforms is not just because that it's actually more attractive to the Japanese market, but because devs dropped the ball with PS3 and failed to transition any sort of audience to the Wii, exacerbating the situation. So with the Wii U and the PS4, even if the Wii U failed, it seems like the PS4 did better than it ever should have. After all, there was still 3DS.

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The PS4 has had a pretty insane level of support from 3rd parties though. Pretty much any game that has been remotely big has hit the platform. The PS4 has essentially received 100% support from Japanese and western devs. I don't think it's that surprising that has managed to sell this well.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I wonder how things might be if FFVII had come out on time. I guess nothing could have really helped, given it's received its most important titles in a while and then flatlined.

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Yeah we've seen a majority of PS4's japanese million sellers only give the PS4 a momentary spike before going back down flat again. FF7 and Death Stranding will likely be the final ones.

 

[Encephalon]

The PS4 has had a pretty insane level of support from 3rd parties though. Pretty much any game that has been remotely big has hit the platform. The PS4 has essentially received 100% support from Japanese and western devs. I don't think it's that surprising that has managed to sell this well.

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It's crazy. I never expected my PS4 library to rival my PS2 library. Though I could probably have a much better PS2 library.

 

[Sandfox]

Yeah we've seen a majority of PS4's japanese million sellers only give the PS4 a momentary spike before going back down flat again. FF7 and Death Stranding will likely be the final ones.

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I don't see Death Standing having sales that high.

 

[Deleted member 31092]

ps5 may launch later than in the west.

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I hope it won't because PS4 will be a rotten corpse by Spring 2021.

 

[foxuzamaki]

That's true, but I feel like part of the reason that everything has transitioned to mobile and handheld platforms is not just because that it's actually more attractive to the Japanese market, but because devs dropped the ball with PS3 and failed to transition any sort of audience to the Wii, exacerbating the situation. So with the Wii U and the PS4, even if the Wii U failed, it seems like the PS4 did better than it ever should have. After all, there was still 3DS.

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PS4 really was some kind of freak (happy)accident. Even sony was legit blown away with its launch sales and even admitted in interviews that they straight up dont know why it was blowing up so hard, as anaysts like mat P say, E3 overall doesnt have that much of effect on the market as we'd like to believe.

 

[AniHawk]

Oh, because of the multiplats. I guess that's true.

I wonder how things might be if FFVII had come out on time. I guess nothing could have really helped, given it's received its most important titles in a while and then flatlined.

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final fantasy vii chapter 1 should be a ps5 launch title if square enix can actually figure out how to manage a schedule for once.

final fantasy vii should have also been a single release in 2011 on ps3 or something. now i'm not sure if three releases of final fantasy vii is meant to go where final fantasy xvi should have gone. it's bad enough that final fantasy versus xiii was reworked and rebranded. i'm getting off-topic though.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I don't see Death Standing having sales that high.

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I can see it surprise, is all I'm saying.

 

[Encephalon]

What is the calculus for delay PS5 in Japan or release on time? I don't remember how well the PS3 was doing hardware wise when the PS4 launched in the west.

final fantasy vii chapter 1 should be a ps5 launch title if square enix can actually figure out how to manage a schedule for once.

final fantasy vii should have also been a single release in 2011 on ps3 or something. now i'm not sure if three releases of final fantasy vii is meant to go where final fantasy xvi should have gone. it's bad enough that final fantasy versus xiii was reworked and rebranded. i'm getting off-topic though.

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Surely Square will release it as a multiplat, right? Then perhaps a multiplat for part 2 if they want to keep the domestic market in mind.

In regards to how things should have been, it feels like issues like the White Engine and FFXIV's original release created a domino effect for other titles within the company that led to things like trying to outsource VII? (Which I'm guessing Sony provided a financial incentive for them to tackle)?

 

[Aleh]

What successful third party games this generation didn't push graphics?

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Off the top of my head Fortnite, Rocket League, evergreens like Minecraft, GTA5, etc

 

[test_account]

There's no running on anything with Stadia it's all streamed. Going for the Switch with this scope and no regards on how to scale efficiently is a fool's errand.

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Stadia is basically PC gaming in terms of developing for it. The hardware specs should be around 10.7 TFLOP. It runs Linux instead of Windows, not sure how much harder that makes development.

 

[AniHawk]

What is the calculus for delay PS5 in Japan or release on time? I don't remember how well the PS3 was doing hardware wise when the PS4 launched in the west.



Surely Square will release it as a multiplat, right? Then perhaps a multiplat for part 2 if they want to keep the domestic market in mind.

In regards to how things should have been, it feels like issues like the White Engine and FFXIV's original release created a domino effect for other titles within the company that led to things like trying to outsource VII? (Which I'm guessing Sony provided a financial incentive for them to tackle)?

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i think ffvii will be on xbox, pc, and stadia. maybe when it's all combined into one thing ten years from now it'll be a switch3/xb6/ps7 release.

 

[Encephalon]

The fact that Stadia doesn't even appear to be releasing in Japan (despite the infrastructure here being better suited for it than the one in the US) surely means we won't see even games like Devil May Cry or Resident Evil as exclusives to the platform, right?

i think ffvii will be on xbox, pc, and stadia. maybe when it's all combined into one thing ten years from now it'll be a switch3/xb6/ps7 release.

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"10 years" is so depressing, yet maybe optimistic. I wish they could release it in 2 titles, though I know that's not going to happen.

 

[Oregano]

AFAIK it only happened with MHW and the fact that Switch has no MH yet is objectively dumb anyway.

Most of the time the games did underperform.

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Yes, people love to cite Monster Hunter but this strategy didn't do anything for God Eater 3, Dynasty Warriors 9, One Piece World Seeker, etc.

 

[Encephalon]

I don't think the argument is necessarily that games are hoping to break big in the West, but that if you're going to chase a console market, you're going to chase the Western console market, because it's so much bigger and will continue to grow while the Japanese market declines. Even if the Switch is big, it also represents a contraction (Nintendo consolidated their handheld and console platforms).

Or maybe that's just what an argument that makes sense to me would be. I shouldn't speak for people who I might not actually agree with.

 

[AniHawk]

Yes, people love to cite Monster Hunter but this strategy didn't do anything for God Eater 3, Dynasty Warriors 9, One Piece World Seeker, etc.

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[Herb Alpert]

I think it's also possible that sony could have encouraged (in various ways) third party devs to go the "better graphics" road, telling them they could reach the western market more efficiently.
This would somehow give them a de facto exclusivity in their home market as it would exclude the switch of the equation.

The monster hunter example is hard to unsee and act as a justification of this move.

 

[Oregano]

I don't think the argument is necessarily that games are hoping to break big in the West, but that if you're going to chase a console market, you're going to chase the Western console market, because it's so much bigger and will continue to grow while the Japanese market declines. Even if the Switch is big, it also represents a contraction (Nintendo consolidated their handheld and console platforms).

Or maybe that's just what an argument that makes sense to me would be. I shouldn't speak for people who I might not actually agree with.

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That would be based in a false premise anyway. Even in the west less consoles are being sold this generation compared to last.

... And Switch and its games are doing well in the west. Heck, just this week we got news that Xenoblade 2 has sold around 1.5m copies outside of Japan which I'm fairly sure is higher than every Takes game has sold worldwide.

 

[Encephalon]

That would be based in a false premise anyway. Even in the west less consoles are being sold this generation compared to last.

... And Switch and its games are doing well in the west. Heck, just this week we got news that Xenoblade 2 has sold around 1.5m copies outside of Japan which I'm fairly sure is higher than every Takes game has sold worldwide.

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I guess I was mistaken.

I've never claimed that Switch games were not doing well in the West.

 

[Adventureracing]

That would be based in a false premise anyway. Even in the west less consoles are being sold this generation compared to last.

... And Switch and its games are doing well in the west. Heck, just this week we got news that Xenoblade 2 has sold around 1.5m copies outside of Japan which I'm fairly sure is higher than every Takes game has sold worldwide.

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I think a lot of just boils down to it being easy porting between PS4, xbone and PC. You get to target a gigantic audience that you know is selling a ton of SW. Porting to the switch potentially requires compromise and on some level more effort than porting to the other platforms.

I also think 3rd parties still just aren't totally convinced that the switch isn't just a flash in the pan success and don't want to change course to try and go after an uncertain market.

Personally I think the switch is yet again a huge missed oppurtunity for 3rd parties, more so even then the wii and a ton of money is being left on the table.

 

[Encephalon]

Perhaps the Switch would have more third party support if the Wii U wasn't such a disaster. Of course, 3rd parties should have been more agile, and it's unclear as to why it's as difficult as it is to see more PS4/Switch multiplat releases.

/oratleastthat'showitlookstomeI'mnotanexpertandmyopinionsprobablydon'tcountformuch

 

[Oregano]

I guess I was mistaken.

I've never claimed that Switch games were not doing well in the West.

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Well 360, PS3 and Wii all crossed sold 90m(Wii did 100m) less than 25m of which was in Japan. That's still 250m+.

Even if you ignore the Wii and do a straight PS3/360 Vs PS4/XBO the final LTD sales will be close worldwide at around ~180m with only 1-2m difference in the amount from Japan.

As to Switch sales I just wanted to add the note that even going with the logic of increasing sales in the west the Switch is perfectly viable for that and XB2 is a perfect example within the same demographic (weebs).

 

[Encephalon]

Well 360, PS3 and Wii all crossed sold 90m(Wii did 100m) less than 25m of which was in Japan. That's still 250m+.

Even if you ignore the Wii and do a straight PS3/360 Vs PS4/XBO the final LTD sales will be close worldwide at around ~180m with only 1-2m difference in the amount from Japan.

As to Switch sales I just wanted to add the note that even going with the logic of increasing sales in the west the Switch is perfectly viable for that and XB2 is a perfect example within the same demographic (weebs).

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Isn't this just a MHW argument in reverse?

 

[Deleted member 31092]

I don't think the argument is necessarily that games are hoping to break big in the West, but that if you're going to chase a console market, you're going to chase the Western console market, because it's so much bigger and will continue to grow while the Japanese market declines. Even if the Switch is big, it also represents a contraction (Nintendo consolidated their handheld and console platforms).

Or maybe that's just what an argument that makes sense to me would be. I shouldn't speak for people who I might not actually agree with.

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The trend so far is devs chasing pretty graphics, budgets being higher and sales declining or not increasing.

Financially apart for a few cases it doesn't seem to be a winning strategy and the market state right now is pretty telling.

Top 10 is filled with 2 years old Switch games...

 

[Oregano]

Isn't this just a MHW argument in reverse?

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Sure, Xenoblade 2(or any other Switch game) succeeding doesn't guarantee success for any other game. But if the idea is that they aim at Western sales on PS4/XBO/PC the only way to argue against that is to cite Switch examples of the same thing happening.

Spoiler

If we were being petty we could easily point out that Breath of the Wild has outsold every game from other Japanese publishers, and hit a new high in Japan at the same time. Maybe that's the game they should be chasing?

Saying that I expect we will see a lot of games(both Western and Japanese) citing BOTW as an influence in the next few years whilst ignoring Switch(and its successor).

 

[Kerotan]

Why do people like the frog avatar guy and now this new user argue vigorously against having games on more platforms. They're not even doing a good job so I want to understand what's in it if either of you don't mind please.

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Jesus Christ...

I'm not arguing saying they shouldn't. In my opinion I'd like the Switch to get more games. But the reality is it's missing out on a lot. There are reasons why and I'm giving my opinion on why that is. It's not as serious as you make out.

As I said I'm all for switch getting ports but as a ps4 player mainly I wouldn't want all my third party games being scaled back in scope to accommodate the switch. Making a switch down port is fine though.

 

[Zedark]

Jesus Christ...

I'm not arguing saying they shouldn't. In my opinion I'd like the Switch to get more games. But the reality is it's missing out on a lot. There are reasons why and I'm giving my opinion on why that is. It's not as serious as you make out.

As I said I'm all for switch getting ports but as a ps4 player mainly I wouldn't want all my third party games being scaled back in scope to accommodate the switch. Making a switch down port is fine though.

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I don't think it will ever happen that top of the line games take Switch as the basis and only up-port from there. Rather, they will do as MK11 and DOOM Eternal are doing and port the game to Switch simultaneously (using another port studio). MK11 was not compromised, and DOOM Eternal looks to be everything DOOM fans are hoping for, so I don't think you would need to worry that scope will be compromised.

 

[ACL]

Breath of the Wild reflects the overall situation quite well, Nintendo IPs having great results, healthy and in certain cases even increasing sales in Japan. On their own they already managed to market several million seller on a current system, with several upcoming millionsellers in the pipeline, compared to the whole Japanese (and Western) industry resulting to 3-4 million sellers in a span of almost a whole generation in Japan due to betting on PS4.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I figured Splatoon 2 would be the splatoon game for the entire generation, but if they launch another one in early 2020, they could probably have Splatoon 4 ready for their next generation platform around launch time.

Splatoon every 3 years sounds good.

 

[Deleted member 31092]

By the way, for Japanese devs isn't a copy sold in Japan worth sensibly more than a copy sold outside of Japan in terms of profits?

I remember that it was discussed once in a MC thread.

 

[Oregano]

some of it is skill. nintendo offers technical support (not actual development but can teach a team) when it comes to porting games. since ue4 works on switch, this really should have been an issue. i have to imagine there's some kind of tie in with sony in some fashion. in addition to the game itself, maybe an anime, some promotion with a soundtrack, or what have you.

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Both of those would be under Sony Music Entertainment though, who now publishes Switch games under their own label. If that was ever a factor I don't think it is any more.

 

[AniHawk]

Both of those would be under Sony Music Entertainment though, who now publishes Switch games under their own label. If that was ever a factor I don't think it is any more.

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oh yeah thanks for reminding me.

so instead of that: bandai namco is bad.

 

[D.Lo]

Shouldn't PS4 have fizzled out much sooner than it did?

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To be fair to Capmcom/Scamco etc: PS4, despite being an undesirable large noisy TV box x86 PConsole designed by and for Americans, and selling poorly, was the only thing there for a couple of years.

3DS was fading, every other platform was stillborn, PS4 was selling well in the west, and as such 3rd parties gave PS4 everything including franchise that made zero sense based on history like DQ and MH.

What if the Switch wasn't released, but a low powered 3DS successor instead (or some other kind of less desirable thing that didn't catch fire like the Switch has)? 3rd parties had nowhere to go for a bit.

So much of the situation is weird timing. Wii U was such a dud, 3DS is old, Switch is such a huge turnaround. The only truly insane with no explanation thing is the Vita/3DS devs not jumping straight onto Switch, I mean, what?

 

[ACL]

Sony Music beeing it's own thing doesn't exclude SIEJ involvement as an intermediator. It's not like they are transparent about every business deal (Monster Hunter supposed Asia exclusive deal has never been confirmed).

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

By the way, for Japanese devs isn't a copy sold in Japan worth sensibly more than a copy sold outside of Japan in terms of profits?

I remember that it was discussed once in a MC thread.

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I figured it would be the opposite considering that digital is approaching 60% in some western countries.