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MegaXZero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 21, 2018
5,079
To add on what I wrote, and to get things into proportion - it took MHR 3 months (plus a few days) to reach 7.3 million on Switch. It took MHW 6 months (plus a few days) to reach 8 million on two platforms.
5 months and a few days for 8.3 million, but to your point, in the back 3 months of those 5, world "only" did 400k. Rise isn't going to develop super legs and be past 8 million next quarter.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
So which game will end up Bamco's best-selling game in 2021. Tales of Arise, DBZ Kararot Switch port, iM@S Startlit Season or SRW30?
  • iM@S is a footnote, Stell Stage crattered (~35k) 4 years ago, the audience for these kind of games is long gone on mobile, it will be lucky to hit 50k
  • DBZ Kakarot is a super late port of a >200k selling game on PS4, as previously said the time or great sales for this kind of title is gone, it won't hit 100k
  • SRT used to be a big seller, not so far from Tales (300-400k during PSP/PS3/PSV era with the Z entries), like most third party IP tied to Sony platforms it declined and hit sub 200k with T two years ago on PS4/NSW, since then Bamco tried to build the IP on Switch by porting X and V, it also had a two and half a yearr break which is unusual for what used to be a yearly affair. It could bounce back a bit with NSW being the lead SKU and maybe reach 200k
  • For Tales of Arise the question is how low can it get, Zestiria/Berseria were 400k titles, at this point decline seems inevitable and 300k would already be (relatively speaking) an achievement but even that sounds optimistic for now

TLDR; LTD
300k > Tales of Arise > SRT30 >= 200k > 100k > Kakarot > 50k > Idolm@ster

Idolm@ster should open higher than Kakarot.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
If Tales really settled at below 300k, then there really won't any competition between it and the next Xenoblade.

Even XC2 should be well above 300k now (but not at retail alone).
 
OP
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
300k at retail for Tales of Arise is a far dream, 250k will be difficult target too. With how frontloaded it is first week will determine everything.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,742
Italy
Kakarot will do well as a late porting, especially in Western markets, but far from what XenoVerse 2 was able to achieve back then.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Is the game coming West?
sensible-chuckle-laugh.gif
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
I don't understand, wasn't that supposed to be targeting kids? Last part of the trailer has Pacific Rim vibes and the boxart makes me think of Patlabor
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
I don't understand, wasn't that supposed to be targeting kids? Last part of the trailer has Pacific Rim vibes and the boxart makes me think of Patlabor
I remember, back when the first revealed this at L5 Vision, Hino was kinda targeting old people who had nostalgia for the old style, metal robot toys. So probably tween boys to adults
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I can't see DB Kakarot overperforming. The time for late ports to sell well is already gone.
A Switch port of Kakarot over performing means selling more than 200-300k lifetime which can happen.

Some of Harada's past statements have offered good laughs but if Bandai Namco is supposed to be satisfied with this performance of Scarlet Nexus nothing from them can be taken seriously anymore when it comes to cutting out Switch from internal projects or late ports. There were signs before but it's clear now the problem lies inside the company and how a number of specific producers view Nintendo. Even the .hack super late release should have been greenlighted the moment CyberConnect2 proposed it.
 
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foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,597
Maybe I understood it wrong, but they are expecting 1 million by March 22.
I don't know the data or anything so I can't make any real judgements and they have the data. But I kinda doubt it reaches that tbh, the game is just not in the conversation anymore. Nobody's talking about it and the vtubers who played it seemed to have dropped it
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
I expect Tales of Arise to be big in the West. It seems to have a lot more awareness than say Scarlet Nexus so even if sales show a decline in Japan the west will cover it.

I've seen a lot more coverage. It will definitely reach a million way faster than SN.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
I expect Tales of Arise to be big in the West. It seems to have a lot more awareness than say Scarlet Nexus so even if sales show a decline in Japan the west will cover it.

I've seen a lot more coverage. It will definitely reach a million way faster than SN.
Isn't Tales of their biggest series after the naruto, DBZ and Tekken?
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
I don't know the data or anything so I can't make any real judgements and they have the data. But I kinda doubt it reaches that tbh, the game is just not in the conversation anymore. Nobody's talking about it and the vtubers who played it seemed to have dropped it

I expect it to reach a million once Namco does a price drop.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,499
I expect Tales of Arise to be big in the West. It seems to have a lot more awareness than say Scarlet Nexus so even if sales show a decline in Japan the west will cover it.

I've seen a lot more coverage. It will definitely reach a million way faster than SN.
While I expect to do much better than SN WW, the conversation around Tales of Arise isn't as enthusiastic as it was in the reveal. Graphics aren't as impressive anymore and i've seen complaints regarding the non-seamless field->battle transition. Of course all of that is anecdotical and shouldn't be taken as serious but I doubt were going to see a new Persona 5, Nier Automata or Xenoblade 2.
 

AniHawk

No Fear, Only Math
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,190
Nippon Ichi Q1 2021

net sales +93,3%
operating income +353,6%
profit +547,1%

missed this. the sales are great but the income is insane. that's definitely coming from disgaea 6 western numbers, but it's also gotta be continued sales in japan too.

also missed the disgaea 6 discussion but chris hit the nail on the head. disgaea 6 was the right kind of game for nintendo to get behind. it's got a long enough history and a good enough pedigree that it makes sense to support, and as an exclusive title for their summer lineup, it's a solid addition. for nisa, it's better to lock that down than to not receive that level of support and also not get major support from sony because it isn't on ps5. as an example - did you see anything really big come from sony's way for ys ix despite it launching first on the system?

meanwhile, nis made the right choice in japan. they rode the worldwide launch hype afforded to them by the nintendo direct, and they managed to bring in whatever active disgaea niche was there on ps4 for a solid launch overall.
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
While I expect to do much better than SN WW, the conversation around Tales of Arise isn't as enthusiastic as it was in the reveal. Graphics aren't as impressive anymore and i've seen complaints regarding the non-seamless field->battle transition. Of course all of that is anecdotical and shouldn't be taken as serious but I doubt were going to see a new Persona 5, Nier Automata or Xenoblade 2.

I don't think Xenoblade 2 sales will be hard to reach especially on multiple platforms. Plus September is a good month for Arise to release since there isn't much that will release from what I know. I just know that seeing the recent gameplay vids the game is definitely a big jump from previous Tales games like Berseria and the stylized anime/realistic designs seem a lot more appealing.

Trust me I was definitely hard on the game especially seeing how it didn't look as good as the initial showing plus the non-seamless battle transition. I was always against the people thinking the game was AAA budget game. However, seeing lots of new gameplay videos and stuff has made me a bit more confident in the game appealing to a bigger audience in the West.



I wasn't as confident in Scarlet Nexus, but Tales looks like they put in a lot of work for it to be a hit. Although it also depends on the game reviewing well.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,597
missed this. the sales are great but the income is insane. that's definitely coming from disgaea 6 western numbers, but it's also gotta be continued sales in japan too.

also missed the disgaea 6 discussion but chris hit the nail on the head. disgaea 6 was the right kind of game for nintendo to get behind. it's got a long enough history and a good enough pedigree that it makes sense to support, and as an exclusive title for their summer lineup, it's a solid addition. for nisa, it's better to lock that down than to not receive that level of support and also not get major support from sony because it isn't on ps5. as an example - did you see anything really big come from sony's way for ys ix despite it launching first on the system?

meanwhile, nis made the right choice in japan. they rode the worldwide launch hype afforded to them by the nintendo direct, and they managed to bring in whatever active disgaea niche was there on ps4 for a solid launch overall.
Nis really made a really great decision 4 years ago that's paying off long term