Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2019 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Excellent growths
Everything.
Despite the PS3 selling WAY below the PS2 the PS4 got all the support. Every relevant 3rd party franchise. Every big 3rd party game.
Final Fantasy
Musou
Boihazard
Dragon Quest
Monster Hunter
Kingdom Hearts
Metal Gear
Tekken
Street Fighter
King of Fighters
Castlevania
Tales
Dragon Ball
Super Robot Wars
Winning Eleven
Soul Calibur
Ace Combat
Souls
Yakuza
Dead or Alive
Senran Kagura
Everything.
And I don't see any reason they won't next gen.
So what I get for Q3 is:
Smash bros - 12.08 million
Pokémon LGP/E - 10 million
Super Mario Party - 5.3 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 3.31 million
Super Mario Odyssey - 1.59 million
Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.4 million
Splatoon 2 - 800k
Mario Tennis Aces: 370k
Kirby Star Allies: 320k
1,2 switch: 220k
Smash bros - 12.08 million
Pokémon LGP/E - 10 million
Super Mario Party - 5.3 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 3.31 million
Super Mario Odyssey - 1.59 million
Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.4 million
Splatoon 2 - 800k
Mario Tennis Aces: 370k
Kirby Star Allies: 320k
1,2 switch: 220k
I had a similar thought.
These are the differences between Nintendo's shipped numbers and Famitsu's 2018 retail numbers for games released this fiscal year (rounded to match Nintendo's numbers) and then the percentage of shipped over retail:
Smash Bros Ultimate ~ 810k /134%
Pokemon Let's Go ~ 600k / 148%
Super Mario Party ~ 290k / 138%
Mario Tennis Aces ~ 140k / 137%
DKC Tropical Freeze ~ 60k / 127%
Captain Toad ~ 70k / 144%
Allowing for product on the shelves and rest of the supply chain, do you guys think we have enough information get a reasonable estimate on digital sales?
Sell-through couldn't have been too close to 100% this last quarter considering they at least had to ship copies for Week 1, which normally is the second biggest of the year. Notwithstanding, shipments do suggest high digital ratio for these games, definitely above 10%.
Japan LTD shipments:
Splatoon 2 - 3,33m
Smash Bros. Ultimate - 3,17m
Mario Kart 8 DX - 2,39m
Super Mario Odyssey - 2,20m
Pokemon Let's Go - 1,85m
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 1,46m
Super Mario Party - 1,05m
Kirby Star Allies - 830k
Mario Tennis Ace - 520k
Labo 01: Variety Kit - 320k
Donkey Kong TF - 280k
Captain Toad TT - 230k
Splatoon 2 - 3,33m
Smash Bros. Ultimate - 3,17m
Mario Kart 8 DX - 2,39m
Super Mario Odyssey - 2,20m
Pokemon Let's Go - 1,85m
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 1,46m
Super Mario Party - 1,05m
Kirby Star Allies - 830k
Mario Tennis Ace - 520k
Labo 01: Variety Kit - 320k
Donkey Kong TF - 280k
Captain Toad TT - 230k
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Shouldn't be a problem in Japan at least, game already got a second shipment I believe (?) and bundles are coming back soon.
What. Doesn't clarify in any way what is this list
edit. Oh, Japan. lollololol That explains it. I can say I know 3 of those games/franchises, otherwise its just gibberish to me.
Weekly Japanese software sales. It's a really easy thing to google.
Yeah sorry, I meant worldwide. It had a great first month in western markets but legs don't sound promising, and I find the 10 million shipped a huge number for its position.
I agree that Japan is probably fine.
Legs look better in the UK at least. Game is charting way higher than X/Y.
I agree that 10m sounds a lot, given the sold-through numbers, it should have been closer to SMO's 9m (but then SMO had some availability problems at the end of 2017 so it could be logical after all ?). The game also got the Double Coin offer and given the shipment data in Japan, it might have done the trick.
Sometimes I wonder if there is still bad blood going all the way back to the Yamauchi era. There seem to numerous examples of third parties who could cut themselves a nice little piece of the market on a Nintendo console but for whatever reason, just choose not to. It's bizarre.
I think that's the case in Europe. As you say we'll see with next quarter shipments.
But I still expect Let's go to reach remake numbers LTD in the end (14 million).
For some devs like for the biggest example takaki i can see that lol. But for bigger company. I think they just dont care.
Haha. Lol. U guys dissapoint with billion road though.TT
I don't think there would be significantly more sales waiting for them there.
If anything I think they tried to extend FF15's life too much opposed to just going all hands on deck for FF16.
So using MC, digital LTD number estimates
Splatoon 2 >400k (12% ratio)
Smash Bros Ultimate > 600k (<20% ratio)
Mario Kart 8 DX <200k (9% ratio)
Super Mario Odyssey >250k (>10% ratio)
Pokemon Let's Go <500k (<30% ratio)
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 200k (14% ratio)
Super Mario Party - <200k (20% ratio)
Kirby Star Allies - >100k (12% ratio)
Mario Tennis Ace - >100k (20% ratio)
Labo 01: Variety Kit - (Famitsu has it retail at ~230k, lots of digital sales here)
Donkey Kong TF - <50k (<20% ratio Last Dengeki number at ~235k)
Captain Toad TT - <50k (20% ratio)
So the norm for Nintendo seems to be around 10-15% digital sales with some titles going up to 20% depending on target audience.
Let's Go is a big outlier which is a bit odd.
I Guess Labo couldn't have digital sales. Doesn't every kit has the cardboard attached?
I know that when I bought Let's Go Eevee it was the last copy at the time (Target, SoCal, mid-Dec) and that on a separate occasion and at a different store I helped a lady buy a digital card for her son because the game was out. Anecdotal, but I just can't imagined it being that overshipped. I think its likely it just had a very high digital ratio. That appears to be the case in Japan. And its not all that surprising considering it targets fans of a digital- only game.
Famitsu has given us updated 2018 numbers for all of these games, so there's no need to mix sources. But you're probably undercounting the older games in your estimates. While it's probable that games like Smash and Pokemon had a few 100k in the supply chain in anticipation of future sales, games like Kirby or Mario Tennis likely had very little.
Nintendo uses MC numbers for retail so these are the ones I used too, only checked Dengeki/Famitsu for two games when there wasn't an updated MC number
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Dengeki is up and they have lower numbers than MC and Famitsu this time, especially for KHIII.
KH3 - 545k
RE2 - 244k
Sell-through for both games is 70%. That means that KH3 first shipment is ~778k and RE2 is ~350k.
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/872/1872747/
KH3 - 545k
RE2 - 244k
Sell-through for both games is 70%. That means that KH3 first shipment is ~778k and RE2 is ~350k.
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/872/1872747/
Where are Splatoon 2 and Smash Special in the all time ranking of the best selling games in Japan? I think Splatoon 2 may be in the top 15 already with 3.33m.
They also have the PS4 significantly below the other two and the switch on top
Superior tracker confirmed :p
There are 38 games that have sold more than 3.33M according to GameDataLibrary.
You are vastly underestimating the number of Mario, Pokemon, Dragon Quest, Animal Crossing, and Final Fantasy games above Splatoon 2.
3.33m would put it around 35th. To enter the top 15 you got to reach 4.25m sales.
OP
OP
hardware (in millions)
software (in millions)
hardware + software (in millions)
Code:
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | 3DS | NSW |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q4 | 1,06 | 1,06 | 0,60 | 0,60 |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 | 0,21 | 1,27 | 0,52 | 1,12 |
| Q2 | 0,86 | 2,13 | 0,83 | 1,95 |
| Q3 | 2,53 | 4,66 | 1,77 | 3,72 |
| Q4 | 1,19 | 5,85 | 0,66 | 4,38 |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 | 0,92 | 6,76 | 0,50 | 4,89 |
| Q2 | 1,17 | 7,94 | 0,64 | 5,52 |
| Q3 | 2,95 | 10,88 | 2,22 | 7,74 |
| Q4 | 0,65 | 11,54 | | |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
Code:
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| | 3DS | NSW |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q4 | 2,18 | 2,18 | 0,89 | 0,89 |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 | 1,03 | 3,21 | 1,56 | 2,45 |
| Q2 | 0,80 | 4,01 | 3,70 | 5,26 |
| Q3 | 6,27 | 10,28 | 4,56 | 9,82 |
| Q4 | 3,03 | 13,31 | 3,33 | 13,15 |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Q1 | 2,96 | 16,26 | 2,95 | 16,10 |
| Q2 | 4,10 | 20,37 | 4,20 | 20,31 |
| Q3 | 9,01 | 29,38 | 10,03 | 30,33 |
| Q4 | 5,09 | 34,47 | | |
+----+--------+--------+--------+--------+
Code:
+-----+---------+----------+
| SYS | HW | SW |
+-----+---------+----------+
| GMB | 32,47 | 157,06 |
| GBA | 16,96 | 73,11 |
| NDS | 32,99 | 213,64 |
| 3DS | 25,15 | 136,64 |
+-----+---------+----------+
| FCM | 19,35 | 225,86 |
| SFC | 17,17 | 194,85 |
| N64 | 5,54 | 39,75 |
| GCN | 4,04 | 27,54 |
| WII | 12,75 | 75,83 |
| WIU | 3,34 | 15,35 |
+-----+---------+----------+
| NSW | 7,74 | 30,33 |
+-----+---------+----------+
OP
OP
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
[FCM] The Legend of Zelda |Disc System| <ADV> (Nintendo) {1986.02.21} (¥2.600) - 1.690.000
[FCM] Zelda II: The Adventure of Link |Disc System| <ADV> (Nintendo) {1987.01.14} (¥2.600) - 1.610.000
[SFC] The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past _Retail/Nintendo Power_ <ADV> (Nintendo) {1991.11.21} (¥8.000) - 1.160.000
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time <ADV> (Nintendo) {1998.11.21} (¥6.800) - 1.460.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 1.460.000
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 120.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 2.200.000
[N64] Super Mario 64 <ACT> (Nintendo) {1996.06.23} (¥9.800) - 1.920.000
[NDS] Mario Party DS <ETC> (Nintendo) {2007.11.08} (¥4.571) - 2.150.000
[WII] Mario Party 8 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2007.07.26} (¥5.524) - 1.560.000
[N64] Mario Party 2 <ETC> (Nintendo) {1999.12.17} (¥5.800) - 1.070.000
[NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 1.050.000
Code:
+----+----------+----------+
| | NSW | WIU |
+----+----------+----------+
| Q4 | 390.000 | 120.000 |
| Q1 | 210.000 | |
| Q2 | 80.000 | |
| Q3 | 220.000 | |
| Q4 | 190.000 | |
|Q1+2| 200.000 | |
| Q3 | 170.000 | |
+----+----------+----------+
| |1.460.000 | 120.000 |
+----+----------+----------+[FCM] Zelda II: The Adventure of Link |Disc System| <ADV> (Nintendo) {1987.01.14} (¥2.600) - 1.610.000
[SFC] The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past _Retail/Nintendo Power_ <ADV> (Nintendo) {1991.11.21} (¥8.000) - 1.160.000
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time <ADV> (Nintendo) {1998.11.21} (¥6.800) - 1.460.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 1.460.000
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 120.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 2.200.000
[N64] Super Mario 64 <ACT> (Nintendo) {1996.06.23} (¥9.800) - 1.920.000
[NDS] Mario Party DS <ETC> (Nintendo) {2007.11.08} (¥4.571) - 2.150.000
[WII] Mario Party 8 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2007.07.26} (¥5.524) - 1.560.000
[N64] Mario Party 2 <ETC> (Nintendo) {1999.12.17} (¥5.800) - 1.070.000
[NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 1.050.000
I mean, it's not like Switch has nothing lined up for 2019. Pokémon and Animal Crossing, and then Fire Emblem and Luigi's Mansion are the major first party titles we know of so far, and that's without having had any further announcements during the year. What was 3DS' slate for 2013?