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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2020 (Oct 26 - Nov 01)

MysticGon

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
Looks like Thunder Thighs 2 is headed for a 100k opening. Another even split between the platforms maybe.
 
Sandfox

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
I could definitely see Pikmin's importance to Nintendo increasing if it hits the amount of level of sales speculated in this thread.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
COMG! preorders chart, Week 45 2020:
Each point represents one preorder at this retailer. It is a relatively small retailer located in one region so be careful when you extrapolate, especially regarding Otaku games (overrepresented) and family games (underrepresented).

1. Momotaro Dentetsu - 86 pts (+11 pts)
2. Monster Hunter Rise - 65 pts (+8 pts)
3. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity - 41 pts (+10 pts)
4. Atelier Ryza 2 (PS4) - 30 pts (+2 pts)
5. Atelier Ryza 2 (NSW) - 27 pts (+0 pt)
6. Call of Duty Black Ops: Cold War - 22 pts (+6 pts)
7. Atelier Ryza 2 Collector's Edition (NSW) - 15 pts (+1 pt)
8. Assassin's Creed Valhalla - 13 pts (+1 pt)
9. Cyberpunk 2077 – 13 pts (+0 pt)
10. Sakuna Rice (NSW) - 10 pts (+0 pt)
11. Monster Hunter Rise Double Pack - 9 pts (+1 pt)
12. Derby Stallion - 8 pts (NEW)
13. Sakuna Rice Collector's Edition (PS4) - 7 pts (+3 pts)
14. Zoid Wild: Infinity Blast Collector's Edition - 7 pts (+0 pt)
15. Aleste Collection Collector's Edition (PS4) - 6 pts (+0 pt)
16. Aleste Collection Collector's Edition (NSW) - 5 pts (+0 pt)
17. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 5 pts (+0 pt)
18. Kingdom Heart Melody of Memory (NSW) - 5 pts (NEW)
19. Atelier Ryza 2 Collector's Edition (PS4) - 5 pts (+1 pt)
20. Marvel Spider-Man: Miles Morales (PS5) - 4 pts (NEW)
 
Djehuty

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
Tbone5189 said:
I meant WW. Kirby a million seller in japan and does good in NoA but weak in Europe. That's what I think pikmin will be. Something along those lines with japan having 30-40% of WW sales
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Kirby star allies would have done so much better if it was delayed to 2029, it launched 50% complete and sales showed
after all the updates it was one of the best kirby games and it could have dethroned the original Kirby's dream land (the only kirby game above 5mil) if they just delayed it.
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Damn I want to remake my 12mil ACNH thread. It would of been Golden by years end. I only quoted the first 25post or so :(

Tbone5189 said:
Hello Everybody, so my name is... oh wait your not here for that! Your here to tell me how ridiculously wrong I am, so post away! But first....

BOLD PREDICTION: Animal Crossing New Horizons will sell 12mil Lifetime in Japan!!! O.o

First of all yes that means beating the almighty Pokémon RB that sold just over 8.2mil copies. Yes the last highest selling game was AC New Leaf which is above 5.79mil in Japan (2012 release). I understand I'm asking for twice as much sales compared to New Leaf and 50% more than Pokémon RB... but it wouldn't be BOLD without it :)

Let's start off with how it'll become a 12mil seller, I expect NSW to keep selling for years and sell over 28mil as of this post, which would mean between 40-45% attach ratio as an estimate.

It's currently at 3611k with retail after 5 weeks. Demand isn't slowing down and most people are pinning it between Pokémon RB and GS in sales (7.2mil-8.2mil Lifetime). But I believe it'll continue to sell throughout this whole year and surpass both games by years end to start. Next week NH should surpass NL First 4 quarter sales which is shown below! Here is my prediction....

Sell thru famitsu

ACNL
Q1 2287k (8weeks and Holiday)
Q2 1053k
Q3 323k
Q4 161k
Y1 3823k

ACNH
Q1 2608k (2weeks)
Q2 1003k (3weeks so far)
Y1 3611k

Tbone5189 prediction ACNH (shipment+Digital)
Q1 4200k
Q2 2800k (yes I'm serious)
Q3 500k
Q4 800k
Y1 8300k (surpassing Pokémon RG)

Lastly I think this game was the fastest selling game in its first 5 weeks...

Pokemon Black/White

2.557.779 / NEW
828.580 / 3.386.358
374.589 / 3.761.217
231.638 / 3.992.855
168.541 / 4.161.397

And that's all folks! What do y'all think? Anybody on board for team 12mil o.O

let me know your thoughts... thank you for the read fellow members :)


READ BELOW ONLY FOR A BREAKDOWN

Bonus breakdown for Y1 sales...

Q1: sales were slightly above 2.6mil in retail. 3rd week although counting towards Q2 in sales had to have ship in Q1 (before Mar 31st) which had sold above 400k. That would put shipments roughly 3mil. We know digital sales are huge but how much? Some people say roughly 40% but let's go lower and put it just under 30% which is huge. 1.2mil digital (PokemonSS did above 700k w1) 4.2mil estimate total.


Q2: week 14-26 (13 weeks) and week 14 shipments will be added to Q1 so let's make it 12 weeks. 4th week and 5th week combine are roughly 580k. All these will have been shipments, we are expecting another good week (W16) so let's lowball and put it at 125k lol. GW will be big with HW being stocked for at least W17 and W18. AC will sell on avg most likely way above 600k, I'll go with 700k. Putting retail sales above 1400k. 8 weeks left and Hardware will still be dire but AC will hold and sell imo on avg weekly for the remainder of this quarter let's say.... 80k (again lol). That would end the quarter with 2000k sell thru (minus W14) and there will be some on store shelves. Let's say 200k as that would be plausible imo. With digital sales being lower percentage I'll put it at 20% I believe in the 2800k for the quarter. Totaling lifetime ship+digital above 7mil or roughly around it.

Q3: this will be the slower quarter but will still track good sales and do 500k (between retail and digital)

Q4: will have holiday and will be boosted further to roughly800k.

Year sales above Pokémon RB :)
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Procheno said:
giphy.gif
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skittzo0413 said:
That sure is bold.

>8m seems like a lock, maybe even >9. Anything else is hard to say at this point.
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Nuclear Muffin said:
No. Just no.

The highest ever sales for a game in Japan is Pokemon Red/Blue/Green, which stands at 7.9 million. And that was the biggest worldwide phenomenon a game has ever been.
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cw_sasuke said:
One thing I hate about Nintendo success stories....people always feel the need to go crazy with predictions about lifetime sales instead of just appreciating the fact that a console game is willing to sell that much in Japan lol.

For all we know ACNH will be sold and playable on current Switch models, Switch Pro and a Switch 2 etc.

So yeah the game will be a evergreen and likely sell for the next 5 years or whenever a sequel is ready to be released.

No point in putting a number on it but it's gonna be the best selling console game ever Japan.
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DarkDetective said:
You realise there's a limited supply of people that can buy the game, right?

My personal estimate would be anything above Red/Blue is bold.
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[QUOTE="Passing Assassin, post: 32236737, member:]
 
DarkDetective

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
It's at 8.18m as of September 30th, which is much more than I could've ever dreamed of.
12m is still a long way to go, but with a big December month and a more years of sales coming, you've definitely proven me wrong.
 
Gotdatmoney

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,555
domthybomb said:
Holy shit are you petty
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This is hardly petty. If a whole thread of people wanna talk shit about your sales estimate and call you insane and you end up being correct, you're allowed to bring it up and even gloat a bit. The lesson is people shouldn't talk shit, not that you're petty for reminding people they don't know everything.
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
skittzo0413 said:
You'll notice I never mocked your claim or even disagreed with it.

I still think it's too early to tell but yeah it's certainly not a ridiculous prediction.
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Oh I was trying to quote every post that was in the thread, not necessarily specific ones lol. Then I realized it took up literally sooooo much space I deleted it lmao.

Edit: I don't know where to put everything there was some funny post like 6mil max lifetime lol
 
MysticGon

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
Kcannon

Kcannon

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,668
Ther's no reason to believe Pikmin won't reach 1 million.

Not so sure about 2 million though due to poor European momentum, but I can see it crawling up to that number.
 
zroid

zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
I was @'d but I don't see where! That post was a joke Tbone, we've been over this 😂
 
Arynio

Arynio

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,235
Tbone, you can always make a new thread now that ACNH surpassed Pokémon R/G. Or a little down the line when it overtakes Pokémon R/G/B.

Tofer said:
Please don't quote me from 6 months. I would be hard pressed to name something I give less fucks about than Animal Crossing.
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You were pressed enough to click on that thread and then post a message with a 100$ bet. Honestly, it's probably hard to find anyone in that thread more pressed than you.
 
Oregano

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Next time Tbone makes a prediction I'm going to agree thus creating a paradox.
 
Arynio

Arynio

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,235
Re: Pikmin 3D. 1M would be a massive overperformance compared with the original Pikmin 3 or any other game in the series, but I've never been happier to eat crow. I hope it really ends up reaching that milestone.

Oregano said:
Next time Tbone makes a prediction I'm going to agree thus creating a paradox.
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xD xD
 
Fularu

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
Follow your dreams Tbone and make your predictions. Everyone called me crazy when I said Smash would outsell Splatoon 2 and cross 5 million units sold and here we are!
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Fularu said:
Follow your dreams Tbone and make your predictions. Everyone called me crazy when I said Smash would outsell Splatoon 2 and cross 5 million units sold and here we are!
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Lol I thought this too. But I also predicted 5mil in japan for Splatoon 2. All my crazy predictions are on vgchz
 
Mr_F_Snowman

Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,889
Yeh thanks to the great performance in Japan Pikmin 3 should land in the 2-3 million WW range. Very good result. I was going to suggest that it shuffles into the Nintendo "mid tier" sales bracket but given the over performance of many Switch titles I'd say its actually still in the low tier. Its just that Nintendos low tier is now 2 million minimum lol
 
Djehuty

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,044
Kcannon said:
Ther's no reason to believe Pikmin won't reach 1 million.

Not so sure about 2 million though due to poor European momentum, but I can see it crawling up to that number.
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do we know how well it's doing in mainland Europe or just Britain. Britain is very different Market from France for example.
 
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