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Meta loses another $3.8 billion on VR/AR
- Thread starter GK86
- Start date
Quest 3 is a great headset and zuck loses money by making it. Win win.
AR is the inevitible future and Meta wants to ensure a monopoly by getting in early.
I only want Facebook's VR to die because fuck Facebook.
Don't lump me in with those weirdos who hate new tech for no reason because that isn't me. I do want VR to succeed, especially for my own sake since I am interested in it and it's not currently affordable for me. I was genuinely asking if people consider it a fad because it's hard to see it having much of a future right now.
It's an interesting gamble that Meta is going for.
Modern VR headsets aren't even a decade old yet, really. In crude relative terms the technology is still two decades away from its iPhone.
For the Metaverse to take off, and for Meta's gamble to pay off, they would have to produce a VR headset as slick as the iPhone as compared to the 'brick phone' VR they're capable of now. VR would have to approach being as ubiquitous and addictive as modern phones are.
Maybe they have a more optimistic timeline, but it seems like a long time to burn money for just to be at the front of the line when the Metaverse becomes viable.
Modern VR headsets aren't even a decade old yet, really. In crude relative terms the technology is still two decades away from its iPhone.
For the Metaverse to take off, and for Meta's gamble to pay off, they would have to produce a VR headset as slick as the iPhone as compared to the 'brick phone' VR they're capable of now. VR would have to approach being as ubiquitous and addictive as modern phones are.
Maybe they have a more optimistic timeline, but it seems like a long time to burn money for just to be at the front of the line when the Metaverse becomes viable.
Meta, Apple, and Sony have invested heavily in VR. It's not going anywhere. At worst, there could be a break. But if a relatively small company like Bigscreen can build a premium headset like the Beyond, we'll have startups producing high-end, low-cost headsets again as the components continue to become better and cheaper.
But the most likely scenario is Meta continues as usual. The company might be shit but their progress in the VR space has been extremely fast, which is good for the entire industry.
Quests are very cheap for what they are, and are an excellent way to get into PCVR. So yeah. Happy for them to burn money if it means PCVR isn't dead for at least a little while longer.
While Meta is horrible, I hope their VR/AR division can continue to operate like this for a while, because they contribute a lot to the VR research, and I doubt other companies have enough fund to invest so much in the research.
I think they (and maybe Valve too) are at the moment the only ones where I can see could be able to launch a product in the future that could potentially have success in the mass market.
(And once Meta has a breakthrough with their research and product, I hope other companies can use that knowledge to launch successful VR products as well, because I would not be surprised if Meta's successful product will have a shady business modell).
I think they (and maybe Valve too) are at the moment the only ones where I can see could be able to launch a product in the future that could potentially have success in the mass market.
(And once Meta has a breakthrough with their research and product, I hope other companies can use that knowledge to launch successful VR products as well, because I would not be surprised if Meta's successful product will have a shady business modell).
VR has settled nicely as a gaming niche. I think the tech can grow in that space.
The ubiquitous, worldwide usage of VR that Zuck envisioned is not happening fast enough to be relevant as it's facing multiple layers of real world challenges and not everything is a tech problem. And we have to remember while one can say VR is growing in certain area, tech in general is growing fast. Even if you say the ideal VR is 10 years away, there's no guarantee that there won't be any breakthrough in other field will replace that vision in 10 years.
VR and AR technology definitely has application in many fields. I just don't see it as something that enters every household like TV did.
I think it's more directed at Meta in this case. The concept still has some sound elements in broad strokes but Meta's whole marketing spiel has been the worst kind of corporate snake-oil horseshit with all the 'enter a world where you can do anything' nonsense.
Also get fucked Zuckerberg lmao
Gee whiz I'm sure BILLIONS PER MONTH could have been spent on something more helpful for humanity but nah
Hopefully not, although Zuckerberg won't have the excuse of pandemic hiring this time around. (Not that he really cares about anything except this folly and his investors.)
Aside from turning the lives of his employees inside out, the knock-on effect Facebook firings have already had in the part of the tech sector I work in has been completely awful. Never seen such a hostile attitude from employers now that they feel they have a deep pool of ex-FAANG people to pick and choose from.
AI stepped in as the investor buzzword du jour as a much more immediately attainable and definable prospect with obvious real world applications, whereas the metaverse was always just a bunch of big companies chasing Zuckerberg in a mad scramble since he was betting so much money on it and they didn't want to risk getting left behind, even if there was no clear concept of what it was they were racing for or what the use case was, aside from NFT grifters shouting about digital ownership of everything.
Zuck's still here because he was always the one true believer. Tim Sweeney's happy to still make noise about it too, but that's only because he's an opportunist to the bone and has one of the few products in existence that can stake a claim to actually being a realization of the metaverse.
Sales wise I agree with you it never really approached fad levels before it flatlined, but exposure and press attention wise it absolutely fell into that category if that makes sense. You couldn't escape it. Meanwhile, the best selling VR games struggled to break a hundred thousand copies outside of beat saber basically
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Sigh, are we really doing this again?
For the tenth time, they are not "losing money". They are doing big yearly investments into R&D in their hardware division. That's where the vast majority of the money is going. They aren't spending billions a year on Horizon Worlds - they are spending it on VR headset and AR glasses tech research. They aren't planning to make any profit until the 2030s at the earliest. Zuch has repeatedly said so.
Now, is it crazy? Maybe, maybe not. Shareholders hate it because they want yearly profits from day one. They don't care about something coming to fruition ten years from now. But the tech is being speedrun, which is great for consumers. We are seeing something completely new - a tech field developing faster than what would be sustainable in the near term but which might be sustainable in the long term.
For comparison, what Meta is spending in their hardware division yearly isn't much different than what Apple spends on developing that year's iPhone or what it takes a console manufacturer to develop a console. The difference is that Meta is essentially releasing a PS1 in the expectation that they will be top dog and financially viable when they get to the PS5. They very well could be. Don't judge the tech's future based on what it's like to wear a VR headset today. What everyone is working towards is to be the go-to device with the form factor of a pair of sunglasses.
For the tenth time, they are not "losing money". They are doing big yearly investments into R&D in their hardware division. That's where the vast majority of the money is going. They aren't spending billions a year on Horizon Worlds - they are spending it on VR headset and AR glasses tech research. They aren't planning to make any profit until the 2030s at the earliest. Zuch has repeatedly said so.
Now, is it crazy? Maybe, maybe not. Shareholders hate it because they want yearly profits from day one. They don't care about something coming to fruition ten years from now. But the tech is being speedrun, which is great for consumers. We are seeing something completely new - a tech field developing faster than what would be sustainable in the near term but which might be sustainable in the long term.
For comparison, what Meta is spending in their hardware division yearly isn't much different than what Apple spends on developing that year's iPhone or what it takes a console manufacturer to develop a console. The difference is that Meta is essentially releasing a PS1 in the expectation that they will be top dog and financially viable when they get to the PS5. They very well could be. Don't judge the tech's future based on what it's like to wear a VR headset today. What everyone is working towards is to be the go-to device with the form factor of a pair of sunglasses.
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I am firmly convinced, that for VR we need the hardware first. Current hardware, as impressive as it is, is still extremely clumsy and cumbersome.
Even wireless headsets are a chore to wear.
A killer app is useless when the barrier to entry is still so high.
I am shocked that a Headset that costs over 3000 dollars isn't selling well. Shocked.
I completely agree with this. We'll get there I believe, the technology is improving all the time, the headsets get lighter and more user friendly - I've spent extensive time with a Quest 2 for personal use and for work stuff (architectural visualisation) and it's definitely cumbersome and a barrier to many people. They often love what they see in the headset for at least a short time, but the experience of having a relatively heavy device on their face is not one many of the people I've worked with are keen to do too much of. Even for me, I get fatigued wearing it for more than an hour or so. Quest 3 is a step up again in terms of comfort and visual quality I believe, so the tech will get there as long as we have a big player with deep pockets like Meta continually driving development to improve the hardware offering.
Yep, it has been awful, lots of companies if not doing layoffs are forcing people to go back to the office and not giving any salary increases this year (and if they do, it's way below last year inflation), despite some of them actually increasing their revenues and getting lots of profits.
EDIT just saw BarryFishFinger post above and this practically lines up with my feelings after an hour or so with the quest 2
I had my first VR exp last week on the older quest 2
Overall, its a cool concept but I dont think I could see myself using it frequently and I think thats the problem with all VR headsets. The technology doesnt feel quite there yet
I had my first VR exp last week on the older quest 2
- Played some space walk game and the felling of moving and being in that "space" was....truly great to begin with. I only spent 10 or so mins on this but was pretty cool
- Had a go on some other roller coaster type things which were ok
- Opened up youtube and seeing it like that I can get behind the media consumption part of it. Was really cool
- After about 30 mins, the headset began to feel a bit bulky....and sweaty lol
Overall, its a cool concept but I dont think I could see myself using it frequently and I think thats the problem with all VR headsets. The technology doesnt feel quite there yet
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Not that I'll disagree with your fundamental point but that's like writing all video games because you played a short promotional free mini game and then watched two videos.
Quoting this in the hopes more folks read it and choose to engage with it.
This is the key thing that 90% of the people in these threads keep missing. VR helmets that fully cover the eyes are not the endgame - Zuck 120% believes that the next step in computing after mobile phones is going to be AR that fits into a pair of traditional-style eye glasses that a significant amount of people in the world already wear and are comfortable with. Everything they're doing now is to reach that and effectively 'own' that space just like Apple and Google are the showrunners for modern mobile phone technology. Apple think the same and it's the exact reason they've released the Vision Pro. Burning through a billion a month is the plan, not an anomaly.
Yeah, I don't think anyone is going to be stupid enough to suggest the ultimate end goal isn't basically "Holodeck".
VR is what's pushing in that direction, not a more powerful Playstation 5 that will somehow still fail to deliver universal 4k/60.
VR is what's pushing in that direction, not a more powerful Playstation 5 that will somehow still fail to deliver universal 4k/60.
His VR/AR investment is the best thing Zuck and Facebook ever did, at least for me personally, I say let them cook forever!
General use VR is a dead end. The only way it takes off is through some kind of Google Glass-esque technology that's light and wearable and actually looks like generic street wear. People don't want to walk around town looking like the fucking sniffer dudes from Chronicles of Riddick, and don't want to spend all day in the office with a giant chunk of sweaty plastic stuck to their face.
Forcing tech by spending billions sometimes works. The web is sort of an example of that. Dot com boom to bust back to a boom, but that didn't invite strapping something to your head.
Subsidizing hardware so people can barely use a tech and certainly not spend anywhere near enough on software has to end at some point and then you are pricing the general public out of caring .
Subsidizing hardware so people can barely use a tech and certainly not spend anywhere near enough on software has to end at some point and then you are pricing the general public out of caring .
Honestly, I'm still skeptical that even the perfect form factor is enough to make this stuff take off.
The biggest issue it has when people want it to compete with phones is actually how you interact with it. It's a really hard sell to get people to do silly gestures in public to interact with it, and voice control will always just be slower and less useful than a direct physical interaction.
It's just really hard to compete with "you touch the screen and can do anything you want in seconds." It's not impossible and obviously for gaming usage, controllers are already a thing, for office usage the same is true of a mouse and keyboard setup so having that all feed into a VR/AR headset makes sense. But for that general usecase of like, this being the next step after phones? The method of interaction needs to improve a LOT before people will take it seriously.
The problem is even with all the subsidising it's still far too expensive for most people, especially with a cost of living crisis happening in many countries. VR will never ever take off, no matter how good an experience it is, until the price becomes far lower.
Quest 2 is $199 MSRP now, and even less used.
The barrier is getting lower all the time.
You aren't paying attention.
For what it's worth, I was not a big fan of media consumption on the Quest 2.
I tried watching a movie (Dredd 3D) on it once as a novelty, and never wanted to do that again. The area of focus and the resolution was too low.
The Quest 3 display/lenses are so much better that it actually makes for a pretty nice virtual display now. It's not going to be replacing my TV... but it's at the point that you could.
Doing that is not something which has ever appealed to me though.
Roller coaster rides and 180° or 360° videos have never impressed me in VR either.
Same thing with 3DTVs for that matter. I just don't care for most 3D video.
But I love VR games. It's such a different experience from regular gaming.
As much as I love the big single player experiences like HL: Alyx, I'm also content with spending 30 minutes a day in something like Beat Saber or many of the more active VR games.
Sometimes it feels like people on sites like these expect to buy a VR headset and have it replace their existing consoles - and it's not that at all.
VR is its own thing, and I'm not looking for it to replace traditional gaming.
Why does VR have to be any of that? (and it seems like you're confusing VR with Augmented Reality/Mixed Reality)
It can just be a thing you put on for 20-30 minutes, to a couple of hours, to play a game.
Quest haz been priced under PS5/XSX for years and closer to a Nintendo switch.
It's just so deeply subsidized it's hard to imagine "when" it'll really be cheap enough for general use without said subsidies. Unless people are spending loads and loads of money on software it just doesn't make sense.
The problem is this type of use even from fairly avid fans of VR is exactly why Meta is throwing away $1 billion a month on VR.
They are deeply subsidizing even their more expensive devices in order to make them as "popular" as they are but not generating revenue anywhere near close enough to justify it. They are pursuing this tech as a thing people spend a ton of money on software and micro transactions and it's not happening.
Oh no! Who could have seen this coming??
I've said the same thing about VR for years, it ain't ready for prime time as long as the price is way lower and the form factor is significantly reduced. Might as well forget about the bulky goggles or helmets with wires. It's not getting out of the niche until then
I've said the same thing about VR for years, it ain't ready for prime time as long as the price is way lower and the form factor is significantly reduced. Might as well forget about the bulky goggles or helmets with wires. It's not getting out of the niche until then
Miss me with this "great for consumers" stuff. Great for people who already bought the VR future, maybe.
I have friends and families laid off when the Metaverse/VR bubble burst. They work in normal ass software/game developers before their investors pressure them into this space with unreasonable amount of investment, because investors wanted to be in front row seat when this supposed future unfolds. When it bombed, they immediately looked elsewhere doing the same unreasonable investment in generative AI hoping the same, while people's lives are upended.
If you want to convince me that Mark Facebook, who laid off thousands of people just last year, is the one true visionary that's going to brute force this future, the future that can be dreamed by any 10 year old who read Ready Player One, then I don't buy it. You're going to tell me this guy is going to spend billions of dollars every year for a decade or however long it takes until VR/AR is in its "mainstream" form? That he's going to be the arbiter of the mixed reality future, the painted target who will shield the non believers, spending his enormous wealth to advance this underdog technology? Mark Zuckerberg?
And what is the end goal of this investment? A future where Meta controls this hypothetical next form of human interaction? Has anyone looked at today's Facebook wall or Instagram feed? Is that and the human cost really an acceptable side effect as long as we have cool VR goggle and games eventually?
I went to engineering college because I love me some tech, I'm all for investment in tech. But the amount spent at this is ridiculous, and I can't get behind the end goal at all.
I have friends and families laid off when the Metaverse/VR bubble burst. They work in normal ass software/game developers before their investors pressure them into this space with unreasonable amount of investment, because investors wanted to be in front row seat when this supposed future unfolds. When it bombed, they immediately looked elsewhere doing the same unreasonable investment in generative AI hoping the same, while people's lives are upended.
If you want to convince me that Mark Facebook, who laid off thousands of people just last year, is the one true visionary that's going to brute force this future, the future that can be dreamed by any 10 year old who read Ready Player One, then I don't buy it. You're going to tell me this guy is going to spend billions of dollars every year for a decade or however long it takes until VR/AR is in its "mainstream" form? That he's going to be the arbiter of the mixed reality future, the painted target who will shield the non believers, spending his enormous wealth to advance this underdog technology? Mark Zuckerberg?
And what is the end goal of this investment? A future where Meta controls this hypothetical next form of human interaction? Has anyone looked at today's Facebook wall or Instagram feed? Is that and the human cost really an acceptable side effect as long as we have cool VR goggle and games eventually?
I went to engineering college because I love me some tech, I'm all for investment in tech. But the amount spent at this is ridiculous, and I can't get behind the end goal at all.
How low does the price have to get?
How many millions more do they have to sell before you stop considering it a "niche" ?