Fudus

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Sep 18, 2020
1,900
I'm just saying that I've read the argument that "the way we engage with games is fundamentally very different from movies or music therefore a subscription service isn't going to take over in the same way as it has those mediums" on here many times before and it just looks more and more correct to me.
 
Dec 27, 2019
6,220
Seattle
They just got ABK and COD. Give them 2-3 years with COD on GamePass and people will realize it is worth it.
How is the addition of one game going to make a monthly subscription worth it for someone who didn't think it was worth it before? Especially with subscription costs likely going up? This seems especially unlikely given how many CoD players play that game near exclusively.
 

Damien1990

Member
May 23, 2020
2,183
Gaming subscriptions will stagnate no matter what, the market for such a sub seems small and prices will increase just like with other media.

Casuals play COD and one sport game (fc/madden/nba) throughout the year, you won't get growth from them unless the yearly GP is cheaper than just buying cod+ paying for online pay. (Which is possible with GP but prices will go up eventually)

So where else should it come from?
Yeah, I think the case for Call of Duty on Game Pass making subscriptions explode is overstated. No matter how many other games are on there - even past Call of Dutys, a lot of casuals just play the one or two games a year tops. There'll be a point where paying a rolling subscription wouldn't be worth it over just buying the game and online access unless Microsoft go all out and put it in Game Pass Core.
 

Volkama

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,044
If I could download Game Pass games from Steam, I'd subscribe right away. I just don't want to deal with the Microsoft Store.
 

Spork4000

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
8,742
Been saying for awhile now that the ceiling for game subscriptions was pretty low, way lower than TV/movies.
 

Hyun Sai

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,562
Ahhh Director compensation.. If you don't hit your targets just... change the targets lol. Reminds me of the old Warren Buffett quote about watching out for CEOs that fire an arrow and then paint a bullseye around it.
Yep, and remember how Fallout New Vegas devs got screwed by just missing the Metacritic target by one point.

Those execs are just shameless pieces of shit.
 

rzks21

Member
Aug 17, 2023
2,256
If I could download Game Pass games from Steam, I'd subscribe right away. I just don't want to deal with the Microsoft Store.

It's somewhat understandable given Steam's 30% cut but Microsoft is probably still suffering from all the bad rep they gathered from the years of games like Dark Souls being locked to the awful GFWL. Even now, horror stories about permanently lost disk space make me avoid Game Pass like a pest.

Still, interesting to see this. Many argued that they were doing amazing on PC based on obfuscated GP Ultimate numbers on Amazon alone and with the specific GP PC subscription never showing up in the top sellers it seems clear to me that growth there was fairly limited too.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
57,543
Am i missing something?

They changed it to Content and Services revenue growth from Subscriber count back in July 2022.

Satya expected 4.4% for his executive payout and they got 0.7%.

This is not saying game pass subscribers went up only 0.7%. This is the overall software and services aspect of Xbox. It feels like the commentary here is focused on subscriber counts

I am pretty sure every quarter they have pretty much talked about subscribers offsetting a downturn in revenue from third party or something like that. And this stretch of Xbox content and holiday sales was not a good period. I'm not surprised the overall segment only grew 0.7% when your releases were… Pentiment and Redfall… games weren't really popping off as a whole in the first half of 2023
 

Dis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,026
Yeah, I think the case for Call of Duty on Game Pass making subscriptions explode is overstated. No matter how many other games are on there - even past Call of Dutys, a lot of casuals just play the one or two games a year tops. There'll be a point where paying a rolling subscription wouldn't be worth it over just buying the game and online access unless Microsoft go all out and put it in Game Pass Core.

I just checked to be sure, I looked on a used game store chain here (so they can be gotten cheaper if I used eBay or whatever else as this chain inflates prices a fair bit in comparison) and I can buy every single cod for the 360 to mw2 from last year and it would cost less than a yearly sub of gamepass. So I absolutely see a struggle convincing folks to do that, even more so when it's then for campaigns only if Microsoft don't actually fix the MP in older titles (I hope they do!) and if folks realise they can pick up the older games 2-4 games at a time and play them in between their warzone fix or whatever for less than a monthly gamepass sub too.
 

jayu26

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,649
I have altered the deal.vader.gif

Must be nice to just change the parameters for your salary/compensation just like that.
 
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OP
Windrunner

Windrunner

Sly
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,650
If day one COD doesn't result in substantial and sustained growth for Game Pass subscriber numbers in 2024 and 2025 then the Game Pass experiment (in its current incarnation which demands constant studio and publisher acquisitions for content and subsequent exponential subscriber growth) is done. It will be time for a rethink as that will prove definitively the theory that these premium gaming subscriptions mainly sell to the core base and not to the mainstream.
 

Praedyth

Member
Feb 25, 2020
6,940
Brazil
This is why I don't think CoD is going to do what some seem to think. People I know who play CoD play CoD. They may sprinkle in a couple of other games like FIFA or gta in between but they aren't in the market for 10s let alone 100s of games a year. The value of gamepass and other subs entirely goes out the window for them at that point over just buying the games, especially when they don't buy every game they play each year at launch and can play CoD etc while waiting for a discount on their sports game or gta or whatever.

Gamepass would have to be far cheaper a year for those gamers to take notice and find value in it at that point and it seems if anything prices need to go up over time for all sub services not down so the likelihood of it happening aren't great.

The good news for MS and Xbox is that CoD selling well outside of sub service still benefits them now, even those sold on other platforms. So even if it doesn't lift sub numbers it's making them money. Doesn't help sub numbers go up as much as they would like but it's still a good thing overall for them
They just need to make Gold $120/year and then Ultimate (COD included) becomes the better deal. Too bad the increase they tried last year didn't work out, lol. I'm curious to see what happens next.
 
Jun 20, 2021
5,325
Surely there's a point in any subscription service where it just plateaus? Maybe it'll be different when they add COD, especially next year's which will be day one but there's got to be a point when maintaining the number you have.
 

Dinjoralo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,514
2022 was when they expected PC Gamepass MAU to quintuple in only a year. No shit they didn't hit their target.
 

Sydle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,460
Am i missing something?

They changed it to Content and Services revenue growth from Subscriber count back in July 2022.

Satya expected 4.4% for his executive payout and they got 0.7%.

This is not saying game pass subscribers went up only 0.7%. This is the overall software and services aspect of Xbox. It feels like the commentary here is focused on subscriber counts

I am pretty sure every quarter they have pretty much talked about subscribers offsetting a downturn in revenue from third party or something like that. And this stretch of Xbox content and holiday sales was not a good period. I'm not surprised the overall segment only grew 0.7% when your releases were… Pentiment and Redfall… games weren't really popping off as a whole in the first half of 2023

*Actually reads article*

You're right...

I wonder if the author is conflating the old Game Pass metric with the new content and services metric?
 

Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,630
I was just thinking that! What's the point of even having a compensation package based on performance if you're just going to pick and choose based on what's been successful or not?

Companies change KPIs as market realities become clear. The counter point to your question would be what's the point in having compensation packages based on unrealistic goals.
 

JasoNsider

Developer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,237
Canada
If you don't sell hardware your subscribers doesn't grow, but according to some people MS doesn't care about Xbox sales anymore...

It was pretty silly at the beginning of the generation here. The threads were absolutely jam packed with people just repeating MS PR points about how hardware sales no longer matter. Podcasts, too.
Anyway, I can actually see a shift where some people did finally come around.
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,916
Am i missing something?

They changed it to Content and Services revenue growth from Subscriber count back in July 2022.

Satya expected 4.4% for his executive payout and they got 0.7%.

This is not saying game pass subscribers went up only 0.7%. This is the overall software and services aspect of Xbox. It feels like the commentary here is focused on subscriber counts

I am pretty sure every quarter they have pretty much talked about subscribers offsetting a downturn in revenue from third party or something like that. And this stretch of Xbox content and holiday sales was not a good period. I'm not surprised the overall segment only grew 0.7% when your releases were… Pentiment and Redfall… games weren't really popping off as a whole in the first half of 2023
Why is this being ignored?
 

PJTierney

Social Media Manager • EA SPORTS WRC
Verified
Mar 28, 2021
3,797
Warwick, UK
At some point you'll probably reach saturation of the total addressable market, so any gains would be minimal. Infinite growth isn't really a thing afterall.

Still though, I'm not going to get worked up over somebody making slightly less income when their earnings are equivalent to about a thousand years of mine.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
57,543
*Actually reads article*

You're right...

I wonder if the author is conflating the old Game Pass metric with the new content and services metric?
No he reports accurately. It's just easy to get tripped up when it goes from games and services in 2023 to talking about game pass KPI in the next bullet point. I'm not surprised the conversation is all centered around game pass.
 

Dis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,026
That would make sense if Gamepass was only on Xbox consoles.

No it makes sense right now with it on other devices too. Gaming PCs are not the mass market consumer appeal that gamepass needs to grow subs, cloud infrastructure sure as shit isn't going to do it either right now or anytime really soon. You need a low cost device that is appealing and can do it locally, Xbox hardware is the key driving force they have right now and it seems silly to act like that isn't the case. The mass market isn't going out and spending 2-4 times the cost of a console on a pc to then play the same games on a sub service for PC that is already on said cheaper console. If you have a reason they would I'd love to hear it, because I don't see it.
 

Vonterribad

Member
Jul 17, 2022
837
Am i missing something?

They changed it to Content and Services revenue growth from Subscriber count back in July 2022.

Satya expected 4.4% for his executive payout and they got 0.7%.

This is not saying game pass subscribers went up only 0.7%. This is the overall software and services aspect of Xbox. It feels like the commentary here is focused on subscriber counts

I am pretty sure every quarter they have pretty much talked about subscribers offsetting a downturn in revenue from third party or something like that. And this stretch of Xbox content and holiday sales was not a good period. I'm not surprised the overall segment only grew 0.7% when your releases were… Pentiment and Redfall… games weren't really popping off as a whole in the first half of 2023

No you hit the nail on the head, and it makes the first page responses a tad embarrassing..
 

scabobbs

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,112
There's not enough time in the day to play all the games they offer. The service does nothing for me as a 30 something male, which I imagine is one of their primary targets. I always thought they'd hit a plateau on subscribers to GP, there's only so many people that have the time to take advantage of such a service.
 

TranceStation

alt account
Banned
Feb 24, 2023
741
I wonder if at some point they will have to look at GP and say : "It was an experiment...an experiment that at it´s current model didn´t work as we intendend and we´ll need to backtrack".
 

Shairi

Member
Aug 27, 2018
9,136
Why is this being ignored?

Because nobody in this thread thinks that Gamepass only grew 0.7%?

The only misunderstanding is, that this change of KPIs was already announced in July 2022.

But I don't think it invalidates most of the responses regarding the change and the performance of Gamepass.
 

GulfCoastZilla

Shinra Employee
Member
Sep 13, 2022
7,126
No it makes sense right now with it on other devices too. Gaming PCs are not the mass market consumer appeal that gamepass needs to grow subs, cloud infrastructure sure as shit isn't going to do it either right now or anytime really soon. You need a low cost device that is appealing and can do it locally, Xbox hardware is the key driving force they have right now and it seems silly to act like that isn't the case. The mass market isn't going out and spending 2-4 times the cost of a console on a pc to then play the same games on a sub service for PC that is already on said cheaper console. If you have a reason they would I'd love to hear it, because I don't see it.
I have gamepass on a 6+ year old PC
You don't need to go out and buy a $2000 machine if you already have a pc.
 

Dis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,026
I have gamepass on a 6+ year old PC
You don't need to go out and buy a $2000 machine if you already have a pc.

Who said $2000? I said 2-4 times the cost. I can get a series s for £200-250. That's £500-1000 for a pc. That's a barebones pc. So again, what's the mass market appeal you're seeing with a gaming pc when consumers by and large in the mass market buy consoles for ease of use and simplicity for the few games a year they want at an affordable price? Why are they going to pay double at minimum for a system that will in reality be no more use to them and gain the subs ms needs? Xbox hardware is literally the driving force no matter how much some users on era want to downplay it and act like gaming PCs are the solution despite years of evidence now showing they aren't.
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,916
Who said $2000? I said 2-4 times the cost. I can get a series s for £200-250. That's £500-1000 for a pc. That's a barebones pc. So again, what's the mass market appeal you're seeing with a gaming pc when consumers by and large in the mass market buy consoles for ease of use and simplicity for the few games a year they want at an affordable price?
Why do they need to buy hardware in the first place if they already have that PC? The most popular and most played games in the world are on PC (not counting mobile). You make it seem like already owning a PC capable of playing games is like finding a unicorn.
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,343
Who said $2000? I said 2-4 times the cost. I can get a series s for £200-250. That's £500-1000 for a pc. That's a barebones pc. So again, what's the mass market appeal you're seeing with a gaming pc when consumers by and large in the mass market buy consoles for ease of use and simplicity for the few games a year they want at an affordable price? Why are they going to pay double at minimum for a system that will in reality be no more use to them and gain the subs ms needs? Xbox hardware is literally the driving force no matter how much some users on era want to downplay it and act like gaming PCs are the solution despite years of evidence now showing they aren't.
It isn't about people buying a PC to play GP. It's people who already own one. Who's saying it's the answer? It's a tandem effect.
 
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Windrunner

Windrunner

Sly
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,650
I wonder if at some point they will have to look at GP and say : "It was an experiment...an experiment that at it´s current model didn´t work as we intendend and we´ll need to backtrack".
It was fine as an upsell from Xbox Live Gold, to play back catalogue games, indies and stuff from XGS. As an an consuming beast that demands day one deals and publisher acquisitions for exponential growth, I am not so sure...
 

MuricaBob

Member
Jun 28, 2023
682
Of course they did. Scumbag CEOs can always change the rules when things aren't going the way they want. Normal employees don't get that luxury, though.
Nadella is hardly in the scumbag column as far as CEOs go, but I get your point overall.
I wonder if at some point they will have to look at GP and say : "It was an experiment...an experiment that at it´s current model didn´t work as we intendend and we´ll need to backtrack".
It really just needs to be profitable to work. I don't think changing performance metrics means that it isn't profitable. I like gamepass because it links smaller games and single player games to a service and reduces the need for every game to be a gaas...since gamepass is kinda the overarching service keeping the numbers working. GAAS titles need seasons and battle passes, but gamepass just needs consistent drops where each game doesn't need to have a battlepass, etc.
 

GulfCoastZilla

Shinra Employee
Member
Sep 13, 2022
7,126
I wonder if at some point they will have to look at GP and say : "It was an experiment...an experiment that at it´s current model didn´t work as we intendend and we´ll need to backtrack".
If they do that I find a device that allows me to use my elite controller on ps5 and I never look back and I doubt they want that. I'll have 10 years with COD before I would have to worry about buying a Xbox again.
 

The Dave

Alt Account
Banned
Jul 16, 2023
2,093
They are only just starting to find thier momentum with software. There was bound to be declines. The next few years will be interesting.