I feel like MS over-sells some aspects of their argument, but generally agree with their positions.
I'm also glad to see them specifically say that making COD exclusive doesn't make financial sense, which is something that I've been saying for a long time.
That said, do I think that making COD exclusive would be potentially crippling to Playstation? Kinda! Say what you will about non-Western markets, but there's a reason Sony has pivoted so heavily towards western content. Those markets have out-sized importance, and we're early enough in the generation that "No COD on Playstation" would be hamstring the platform.
But again, as MS said, I don't think it makes economic sense to make COD exclusive. Additionally, while making COD exclusive to Xbox would pose a significant threat to the Playstation platform, it would pose an equally significant threat to the COD franchise. Ripping COD away from the platform that nearly half of its player base games on would make the franchise a lot less culturally relevant, and would open the door wide for another competitive FPS shooter to take its place as the de facto Bro Shooter in gaming. So there's a lot of reason for MS not to make COD exclusive.