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Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
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Oct 25, 2017
19,735
Okay, Muffin is gone but we should only have one scum left so it won't impact us that much.

Nin protecting someone narrows down the suspects.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,735
I got a chance card as well. Anyone on Oxford Street tonight will die.
 

Ketkat

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,727
Right, so based on that information from nin. These are basically the three choices.

A. Me and DCPat are both scum.
B. Kalor and DCPat are both scum.
C. Nin's a liar and is the scum with DCPat.

There's no way for Sophia to have been involved in that situation so that should clear her.

B. seems the most likely to me since if Nin was lying about protecting someone that would buy him like a day at best. I'm not sure how skipping out on a night kill would be worth getting one town lynched when there are better excuses that he could use to do both
 

Kalor

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Oct 25, 2017
19,735
Right, so based on that information from nin. These are basically the three choices.

A. Me and DCPat are both scum.
B. Kalor and DCPat are both scum.
C. Nin's a liar and is the scum with DCPat.

There's no way for Sophia to have been involved in that situation so that should clear her.

B. seems the most likely to me since if Nin was lying about protecting someone that would buy him like a day at best. I'm not sure how skipping out on a night kill would be worth getting one town lynched when there are better excuses that he could use to do both

Do you think I would have voted for DC yesterday if I was scum?
 

nin

Asked Politely
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
7,159
Just for your information zipped and fandorin.
I am indeed the doctor and i am indeed town.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
Hey guys. It's pretty clear I suck at speed voting, but it's ok. Zipped and Ket got my back.

Anyway, let's all full claim to remove all pretenses and have a talk about this.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
Right, so based on that information from nin. These are basically the three choices.

A. Me and DCPat are both scum.
B. Kalor and DCPat are both scum.
C. Nin's a liar and is the scum with DCPat.

There's no way for Sophia to have been involved in that situation so that should clear her.

B. seems the most likely to me since if Nin was lying about protecting someone that would buy him like a day at best. I'm not sure how skipping out on a night kill would be worth getting one town lynched when there are better excuses that he could use to do both
A day at best gets him to lylo where he only has to convince one person who to kill.

vote: nin

Yesterday him and DCPat using the card was them trying to get nin into position to kill someone with plausible deniability. Something about not being able to heal or having it not work. They knew they had to use it before the day ended, and with Nin's cover they had a good chance of it going un noticed.

They had no way of knowing that we would mass claim, and the mason reveal had happened minutes before (and fandorin hadn't revealed that he was the mason yet, nor had either of us revealed our outside chat).
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
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Oct 25, 2017
10,859
My thoughts to back this up is why fandorin and I were blocked from said chat yesterday. Neither of us passed the other in the night. As we didn't pass our chat was blocked.

So I am thinking that scum had the same restriction. And DCPat and Nin did pass each other the previous day phase. So they had to talk it out in chat.

And here we are with DCPat dead and no kill last night. Nin knew that if anyone died, he was toast. So he went with hydro pump and claimed he protected someone.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
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Oct 25, 2017
19,735
Yes. There aren't a lot of options at this point for where scum votes can go, and trying to make yourself appear town in any way you can is kind of what I would expect.

Sure but his lynch pretty much wasn't going to happen until the last hour. Voting for him when I did only benefits me if I knew he was being lynched that day and at the time, I seemed like the more likely candidate.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
There are no more PRs left right? Then I really doubt nin is fake claiming. Without him, town had 1 cop and a space investigator, masons and a dude that walk backwards (?), that doesn't seem balanced considering the scum flips we had so far.

Nin reviving one of the players inside his range last night is expected too. Scum! Kalor or Scum! Sophia could only kill each other (12 spaces between them), and killing Kalor would be a huge waste right now. So scum just went for a probably wasted kill anyway.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
Then why did DCPat even bother with the card? What purpose does scum dcpat have with moving anyone if him and Kalor or him and Sophia are going to kill?

DCPat only had Kalor and Sophia in his kill range. Sophia has even less.

Why doesn't DCPat move himself?

Because either they were going to take last night off anyways (doubtful) or nin is his partner and DCPat couldn't talk to nin in scum chat.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
Nin what DCPat did doesn't make sense if you are town.

It just doesn't.

Best part is, if Sophia is scum she can only kill me. If ketkat is scum he can only kill fandorin and if Kalor is scum? Well no deaths tonight.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
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Oct 25, 2017
19,735
It could have been a last ditch effort to score some town points. That's what I thought at first yesterday.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
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Oct 25, 2017
10,859
Yeah but why? DCPat wasn't in contention at day beginning. If he hadn't switched anyone I don't think I would have ever taken a second look at him.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
I see no other pairing other than DCPat + Sophia and DCPat + Kalor. And the key pointing me to Sophia is N4, the no kill night prior to nin's token reveal.

Who did scum target? At this point I'm fairly confident in saying that the kill attempt was directed at Brazil. Getting him mislynched was practically impossible, and there were no claims left for scum to go for.

We all agree that, without Stuart to scout out tokens, scum modus operandi should be to pick the token closer to the rest and take a shot at it. Well, that's what happened at this night.
Looking at the board, and we see DCPat (Dog) together with Brazil at the bottom. With his 10-spaces kill range, he can go for Purse, Cat and Penguin too, so a total of 4 tokens. At the top, we have Sophia (T-Rex) with access to 6 tokens, considering a 10-spaces kill range as well. At the same time, if we consider Kalor as the remaining scum, DCPat would've been forced to do the kill at the night, and he was right next to Brazil.

I believe Sophia tried to do the NK at Brazil and whiffed. Scum then knew he was either Top Hat, Purse or Car, all tokens inside DCPat's range the next day, a guaranteed kill for them and exactly what happened.



OFIJWtoh.png



DAY 4 BEGINS
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
Even still if we lynch Sophia. Ketkat can only kill nin and fandorin, Kalor can't kill anyone except maybe ketkat, I cant kill anyone (I'm in jail).

So even if we miss, scum can't kill anymore without revealing themselves.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,735
Yeah but why? DCPat wasn't in contention at day beginning. If he hadn't switched anyone I don't think I would have ever taken a second look at him.

I'm not sure why .Maybe scum felt like they needed some play that would turn the tide in their favor so they tried this. Maybe it was a long term plan to make nin look guilty by association. I don't disagree with your idea but the possibility is always there that they had another reason for the swap.

I would have been the same about not looking at DC. I wouldn't have thought about voting for DC as his reasoning for revealing the card was what got me to vote for him in the first place.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
Exactly!

Optimally from board placement we should lynch Nin. He is the most central to all players and by killing him most others are then "either/or" Sophia can only (probably) kill me, ketkat can only (probably) kill fandorin, and I don't think Kalor can kill anyone.

If we lynch Sophia and are wrong we are still in a "which one is it" between ketkat and nin, if we lynch Kalor it's even worse.

Even if we don't have the "why does DCPat swap town nin, unprovoked" nin is still the optimal kill from board placement.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
DCPat and Sophia interactions feel weird on a reread too. Both seem to keep one another at a distance, poking a bit here and there, but never applying real pressure. They never voted for each other, even after Sophia immediately expressed her dislike of DCPat claim last day.

That's what I expect from the remaining scum after losing two members so quick into the game.

It's also curious that DCPat had "redchecked" Ketkat by blocking Kalor that night. Who would we go for after DCPat got lynched today if we flipped Ketkat?
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
I think it's likely that the kill card may have been drawn by DCPat. Two kills plus a ketkat mislynch is a win for them at two scum and two town.

Likewise it had to be DCPat with the kill card, because why not take the two extra kills and whittle the board down more... because the kill card had unlimited range, think.

I don't know I'm having a hard time thinking about any play that doesn't involve lynching nin.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
Zipped, town is really weak PR wise if nin is lying. DCPat switch was a attempt at getting town points by being open about the card. If someone inside nin's protection died last night, wouldn't he be suspect at hell today? What would that accomplish?

I think scum accepted the fact that they couldn't safely kill someone last night and tried to make the best out of that situation.
 

Android Sophia

The Absolute Sword
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
6,186
I think it's likely that the kill card may have been drawn by DCPat. Two kills plus a ketkat mislynch is a win for them at two scum and two town.

Likewise it had to be DCPat with the kill card, because why not take the two extra kills and whittle the board down more... because the kill card had unlimited range, think.

I don't know I'm having a hard time thinking about any play that doesn't involve lynching nin.

You realize that for this to be possible the community chest cards would have had to been shuffled again, right?
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
If remaining scum has a 12-space kill range, then Sophia can kill Zipped, me, nin and Ketkat tonight.
While Kalor could get me, Ketkat and nin in.

Would you bet on scum having less than that then Zip? Cause lynching nin would put us in a precarious situation between the two of them as loose ends.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
Right, so based on that information from nin. These are basically the three choices.

A. Me and DCPat are both scum.
B. Kalor and DCPat are both scum.
C. Nin's a liar and is the scum with DCPat.

There's no way for Sophia to have been involved in that situation so that should clear her.

B. seems the most likely to me since if Nin was lying about protecting someone that would buy him like a day at best. I'm not sure how skipping out on a night kill would be worth getting one town lynched when there are better excuses that he could use to do both
Why exactly are you clearing Sophia? She has been skating by the whole game,.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
While we wait for her to answer, can I ask why you don't have Ketkat on your list of possible scum?
You think the plan was for DCPat to bus her and get scoot free after red checking her like that? Hadn't thought about that, especially since Ketkat's last posts came off really townie to me at the end of the day phase and her vote guaranteed yesterday's lynch.

Does this post make sense if the plan is for you to flip scum and clear your scum buddy?

Its a possibility. I don't think its very likely, but until a role is verified I wouldn't put them in 100% town because of that role. Tomorrow's the last day for town unless you get scum then, so be thorough and follow everything and don't just tunnel on DCPat. That's all I'm suggesting
 

Android Sophia

The Absolute Sword
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
6,186
You think the plan was for DCPat to bus her and get scoot free after red checking her like that? Hadn't thought about that, especially since Ketkat's last posts came off really townie to me at the end of the day phase and her vote guaranteed yesterday's lynch.

Does this post make sense if the plan is for you to flip scum and clear your scum buddy?

Actually what bothers me about that post is that it looks like she was trying to throw shade on the claimed players, which doeesn't really make much sense if both her and DCPat are scum. Hmm...
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
You realize that for this to be possible the community chest cards would have had to been shuffled again, right?
We've only had the kill card once, but Geno thought he had been swapped already, and obviously DCPat swapped yesterday. That's why I'm thinking a card shuffle was possible. Unlikely but it is worst case scenario.

If remaining scum has a 12-space kill range, then Sophia can kill Zipped, me, nin and Ketkat tonight.
While Kalor could get me, Ketkat and nin in.

Would you bet on scum having less than that then Zip? Cause lynching nin would put us in a precarious situation between the two of them as loose ends.

I would bet that scum's last role has smaller kill range than 12.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,735
This might be interesting to think about but I wonder what the last mafia member is going to do about the discussion today?

Normally this isn't worth entertaining but the range being such a key component puts them on the backfoot. Do they talk about information they know is correct so they appear to be contributing or do they try to throw people off the scent by throwing out different ranges?
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
We've only had the kill card once, but Geno thought he had been swapped already, and obviously DCPat swapped yesterday. That's why I'm thinking a card shuffle was possible. Unlikely but it is worst case scenario.



I would bet that scum's last role has smaller kill range than 12.
I've been thinking about Geno's switch, and it's weird. It's a chance card that's apparently been drawn twice, but Kalor got only today the chance card that destroys Oxford Street. I assumed that card actually destroyed that space, but maybe not?
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356
This might be interesting to think about but I wonder what the last mafia member is going to do about the discussion today?

Normally this isn't worth entertaining but the range being such a key component puts them on the backfoot. Do they talk about information they know is correct so they appear to be contributing or do they try to throw people off the scent by throwing out different ranges?
Play it safe and divert discussion from whatever would get him compromised. There's not much leeway for him to play around, best bet is pray town doesn't pick him.
 

Fandorin

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,356

DCPat = 3 rolls in a row as scum
Muffin = 3 rolls in a row as neutral

What's wrong with you guys?


Anyway, I'm assuming that the rest of you that haven't claimed yet are vanilla, since everyone ignored me.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,859
DCPat = 3 rolls in a row as scum
Muffin = 3 rolls in a row as neutral

What's wrong with you guys?


Anyway, I'm assuming that the rest of you that haven't claimed yet are vanilla, since everyone ignored me.
With the card mechanic it's not surprising. Any vanilla player could feasibly have a role for a night this way. It's a pretty fun mechanic.

If I was the last remaining scum, I would play with questions like Sophia has so far, or dismissive like nin has so far. Not sure which I would do here, but likely one of those two
 

nin

Asked Politely
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
7,159
With the card mechanic it's not surprising. Any vanilla player could feasibly have a role for a night this way. It's a pretty fun mechanic.

If I was the last remaining scum, I would play with questions like Sophia has so far, or dismissive like nin has so far. Not sure which I would do here, but likely one of those two

Sorry to not have contributed more, i was shocked that you are putting me down as a potential suspect.
I can see where you are coming from though and will put down my case in some hours.
Day Started yesterday evening while i was in bed and i just wanted o take a peek, i saw you put down a vote on me and was shocked ( since we are arriving at the end game. Dont lock down just now Zipped, let your mind go through other possibilities aswell.
I know that i am of no use for town anymore since i used my shot i gained while walking through GO! But damn would it be a shame to waste a lynch on the Town doctor.

Again i will put down my case with the board in a bit ( currently in classes ) and i will say who the potential suspects are.

Fandorin and Zipped are clear though.

See you in a. Bit
 
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