Early Mini-Update for June because I'm not sure I can get it out this weekend/next week, and we have the Netflix June 2024 schedule.
- In a shocking twist (at least from my tracking perspective, I know others will say otherwise) Madame Web is out on US Netflix. We went from four months after theaters for lower grossing films, to three months after theaters. Maybe home digital sales were so bad Sony Pictures was like "please, just take it now Netflix. We need streaming money!"? Either that, or the window has shifted again as Madame Web was the first big 2024 film. Either way, three months after theaters is on the table for certain films. Crazy considering how Sony Pictures two years ago was very insistent on long theatrical windows.
- And so the question becomes: When does Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire come out? That movie did not do as bad in theaters as Madame Web. It wasn't a major hit for Sony, but it is looking like it'll turn a profit. At least a tiny bit. Maybe. So we have two scenarios that can occur:
A) It comes out in June, confirming that unless a movie is a big hit for Sony Pictures, we can now expect theatrical films to be on US Netflix three months after it hits theaters.
B) It comes out in July, confirming bombs now come to US Netflix three months after theaters, ok runs are four months, theatrical hits are five months (see Across The Spider-Verse and No Hard Feelings).
We won't know until two weeks before a streaming drop when the release date is. So we'll see what happens. I'll do a post analysis on Ghostbusters if it releases in June like I did above with Madame Web.
- The Garfield Movie looks to be already close making back it's production budget overseas before the US release (it was $60 million from what I've seen online). Opening Weekend US numbers seem acceptable with it's budget. I don't expect this to be a three months to US Netflix release at all. We'll see what happens with Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and adjust estimates accordingly, but I suspect a September/October drop on the service depending on how the next month's US performance goes. We'll talk more at the end of June once we have a better idea of how the legs performed.
- We'll talk about Bad Boys: Ride or Die next month once we have opening weekend numbers and an idea of how the legs are. This is Sony Pictures' big Summer movie, so a strong performance may have it wait the maximum time like Across The Spider-Verse.
- Sony Pictures is going to start getting impacted by the strike again soon after Bad Boys. Their next film will be an AppleTV+ exclusive. And until the end of the year we're going to have one month hiatuses where Sony Pictures opts out of major film releases. Be prepared.
We'll be back in Late June for the July 2024 mini-update. Stay tuned!
