Next Gen discussion - the real 4K era

[Popular Demand]

However, the next generation needs more than just 4K/FauxK@60fps. It greatly, I mean GREATLY needs a CPU jump. This will improve AI and other areas of gaming tremendously.

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Agreed. I know a lot of people are wowed by the advances in visual fidelity that we're still seeing this generation, but I would much rather greater attention be applied towards advances in AI and immersive worlds that are dynamic . Flawed as they may be, Shadow of Mordor and Shadow of War are two games among very few that actually meet how I imagined next gen games to play. There's just an unpredictability to them that wasn't possible last gen. Horizon Zero Dawn is another great example of the gameplay advances I imagined the next-gen tech delivering.

 

[ManatuBear]

Why pick one when you could have both? 4K + HDR can make a game with good gameplay and story even more immersive.

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it's almost like you can have both......I don't get posts like this ..at all. They are video games, the tech is important as is immersion. good devs mange both all the time. We don't stop progress, tech improves, and we take advantage as we should.

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One reason is that 4k TVs cost money, money that can be used for more useful things, the other reason is, for example, my GOTY so far is Thimbleweed Park, i really don't see how 4k+HDR would make the game more enjoyable.
I have nothing against evolving graphics, but if 4k becomes the minimum res possible with next-gen , i'm out, because the games i like aren't really the ones that will use the tech and buying a 4k TV would be a waste of money for those games.

 

[Allseeingeye]

Disagree...Better assets > 4k..4k is already nearing diminishing returns... Framerate and assets...4k last.

 

[PunkMilitia]

Hello all. Welcome to a topic I hold dear. Best to start it with a little presurface;

The PS4, and Xbox are starting to feel a bit too far behind in terms of power for the future(current for some) TV sets. HDR has been a great addition for PS4 and Xbox one S, though.

We now have the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X pushing games to 4K or FauxK, but alas, it really isn't a leap forward just yet. The true next generation will be 4K standard. I'd personally hope for checkerboard 4K@60fps.

However, the next generation needs more than just 4K/FauxK@60fps. It greatly, I mean GREATLY needs a CPU jump. This will improve AI and other areas of gaming tremendously.

Also. Can we all agree PS5 Late 18/Early 19, followed by Xbox the year after? Also, I feel 10-12 TFLOPS would be expected, and respectable. That could push the 4K/60fps and better AI/etc. Let's all speculate away! Play nice everyone and stay away from arguments







*Thread was created for contributor/member "punkmilitia" If you any specific questions or comments in regards to the content of the OP, please reach out to him directly: https://www.resetera.com/members/punkmilitia.11404/

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Hey Cornbread78 wpuldnyou mind changing "Can we all agree PS5 Late 18/Early 19" to "Can we all agree PS5 Late 19/Early 20" A's I forgot about the new CPU nodes. Sorry for the inconvenience

 

[Dekim]

Sony is selling PS4 hand and fist. Just look at their recently released fiscal quarterly results.
Any substantial jump from the XBX and Pro require at least a 7nm die shrink. That will not be available until late 2019.

All hat together tells me a PS5 is a 2020 release at the earliest.

 

[ApeEscaper]

Sony is selling PS4 hand and fist. Just look at their recently released fiscal quarterly results.
Any substantial jump from the XBX and Pro require at least a 7nm die shrink. That will not be available until late 2019.

All hat together tells me a PS5 is a 2020 release at the earliest.

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Yep. 2020 Q1 PS5 release for sure.

Near the 2020 Japan Olympics at June with mass marketing etc

 

[Pif]

I'm gonna wait my sweet time for PS5, enjoy the massive ps4 library and then jump Ship when the 5Pro arrives.

Also I wanna see simulation/systems having that next gen feel. PS4 for me feels like prettier PS3 games

 

[shimon]

Also. Can we all agree PS5 Late 18/Early 19, followed by Xbox the year after?

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Absolutely not. 2020 if anything. Sony is doing to well right now + Pro is barely 1 year old.

 

[Peterc]

Another 4 years to go to next gen.

Development is way to high. Those aaa titles has reach its maximum capacity in budget. Developers rather want to stick with current gen and switch.

 

[Expy]

PS5 is totally going to use checkerboarding.

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I see this being realistic:

4K native resolution & 30 FPS (generally locked)
4K dynamic/checkerboarding & 60 FPS (dynamic or locked)

 

[Vipu]

Everything i hope is that console cpus are gonna make huge leap so we can have good physics in games.
Physics make so huge difference in games, sadly not many games have it, mostly because console cpus are trash.

 

[Noob]

I do agree with you, but there are too many cheap consumers that does not own a 4K HDR TV yet. So the market is really still between 1080p and 4K.

But we are getting there.... :)

 

[Animal Liberation Ⓥ]

PS5 is totally going to use checkerboarding.

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I believe it will as well on a lot of high profile games. Not that it could not do native 4K, but the tech is really good, and discernible to the average gamer's eye, thus they can get more fidelity/effects with using it over native.

 

[spookyghost]

Absolutely not. 2020 if anything. Sony is doing to well right now + Pro is barely 1 year old.

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The PS4 was only 3 years old when the Pro came out, I'm not sure why sony would wait longer than that to drop a new model agai unless they're waiting for a technological leap. They have the benefit of being a year ahead of microsoft now, they'll definitely capitalise on that with a hot new product as soon as reasonably possible.

 

[elelunicy]

I would prefer if it became the 60fps era. Also I highly doubt a powerful CPU will lead to better AI. Devs will use that CPU power to improve graphics, because a pretty screen shot will sell more copies than a "Amazing AI" footnote on the box.

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It's not choosing between better graphics or better AI, but between better framerate or better AI. CPU plays a minor role at best in improving graphics but a very critical one at hitting 60fps. It would come down to 30fps/better AI vs. 60fps/worse AI.

 

[btags]

I dont want devs to focus on 4k or even checkerboard 4k.

Native 4k will take up 4x the GPU power which means if the next gen consoles are 12 Tflops, we would literally be wasting 9 of those 12 tflops on rendering 4k pixels instead of spending those 9 tflops of better hair, foliage, post processing effects and overall world detail. Who the hell wants a game designed around a 3tflop gpu?

Even if they go with checkerboard 4k, they would be using half of the GPU power or 6 tflops to do it. And no just no. I would gladly wait for a PS5 Pro to run these games at 4k three years after the PS5's launch. Games look fine at 1080p. Just look at Sunhi's gifs. All they have to do is add per object motion blur, lots of high quality AA and you wont notice the kind of blurry image that 1080p games can sometimes have on 4k screens.

60 fps is already a standard for 99% of the fps games, again, i dont want horizon 2 or tlou 2 to waste half of the cpu power on 60 fps. Lets put that extra CPU power to enhance A.I, number of enemies on screen, destructible environments and other visual effects that require cpu computational powers. Horizon, Bloodborne and Uncharted 4 are all 30 fps and play just fine.

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This is not how gpus work. I am an not expert, but someone could probably explain the real world scenario and why this is wrong.

 

[GFP_RYU]

Hello all. Welcome to a topic I hold dear. Best to start it with a little presurface;

The PS4, and Xbox are starting to feel a bit too far behind in terms of power for the future(current for some) TV sets. HDR has been a great addition for PS4 and Xbox one S, though.

We now have the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X pushing games to 4K or FauxK, but alas, it really isn't a leap forward just yet. The true next generation will be 4K standard. I'd personally hope for checkerboard 4K@60fps.

However, the next generation needs more than just 4K/FauxK@60fps. It greatly, I mean GREATLY needs a CPU jump. This will improve AI and other areas of gaming tremendously.

Also. Can we all agree PS5 Late 18/Early 19, followed by Xbox the year after? Also, I feel 10-12 TFLOPS would be expected, and respectable. That could push the 4K/60fps and better AI/etc. Let's all speculate away! Play nice everyone and stay away from arguments







*Thread was created for contributor/member "punkmilitia" If you any specific questions or comments in regards to the content of the OP, please reach out to him directly: https://www.resetera.com/members/punkmilitia.11404/

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My guess is Ps5 next 2019. Late 2019

 

[PunkMilitia]

I'm a lot more interested in fidelity, effects, world size, view distance, and polygon count than resolution. That nice 1080p 55" Samsung i bought a few years ago is supposed to last 20 years. You have to have really good vision or sit really close or go mammoth size screen for most to see the difference between 1080 and 4K. I don't think it's happening next gen. Now VR focus could be interesting though.

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I can see a difference between 1080 and 4k on screen sizes above 50". I still feel HDR is more important than 4K. A 1080p game with HDR looks better than a 4K game with no HDR.

 

[GranTurismoWhine]

The next gen has already started with the Nintendo Switch (it is 9th gen by the way, for whoever wants to argue that), and will continue with the PlayStation 5 in what I think will be late 2019. I just can't see Sony (or Microsoft for that matter) not release a console during the holiday season. Nintendo really got lucky with the March release of the Switch, but in most cases, releasing a new system right at the time where people are most willing to open their wallets is a safe bet. Microsoft could have a new system out around the same time as Sony, mirroring the launch of the 8th gen, but I could see Sony having a year headstart with PS5, as PS4 Pro would be three years old by 2019, and four by 2020. MS releasing the next XBox in late 2020 makes sense, as any earlier could leave XBox One X owners feeling burnt. I'd say that if the trend of the mid-gen refresh continues (and I think it will), at least three years between console releases seems reasonable.

Next gen should just offer more options in terms of how you want to play. Unless something pretty drastic happens I don't see 4k@60fps happening in the next few years on console. Offering 1080/1440 at 60 would be a very nice option though. The closer they get to PC in terms of options, the happier I am.

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I would like to see them go all the way.PC gaming is almost as big as console gaming at this point, so I don't see why Sony and/or Nintendo start their own distribution platforms on PC (ala Origin, GOG, UPlay, etc.), and sell their games there as well. As long as ports are top notch and online features are on par with their consoles (and free), people will buy their games. I think Microsoft shot themselves in the foot by using the Windows Store for XBox One games on Windows 10 instead of a separate client, as I know many prefer to stay away from the Windows Store at all costs (with good reason). UWP is another issue altogether, but if they really put some effort into their ports, they could be great. AFAIK, Gears of War 4 and Halo 5: Forge seemed to have been good, so at least quality can be achieved with UWP games. PC gamers want to play PlayStation and Nintendo exclusives, and selling them on PC along with having them exclusive with their respective consoles makes everyone happy. Console gamers who don't care about PC will still have exclusive content that other consoles don't have, and PC players can play everything from everyone. Competition will be even more heated on PC as I don't see any of the big three bar Microsoft put their games on Steam, so that could give Valve a run for its money.

Consoles will certainly still exist for the giant market that wants them, but PC should get the games from the big three as well, and will definitely make money for manufacturers in two ways instead of one. That's what I think the next-gen will hold. A greater emphasis on PC along with the standard and mid-gen consoles, pleasing two markets. It's easy money Sony and Nintendo can make, and it behooves me that they haven't gotten into a near $30 billion PC gaming business. As far as what is most likely to happen, I see Sony getting into PC gaming before Nintendo does, partly because of how much Sony as a whole depends on the PlayStation division. Another major slip up like the PS3 could be disastrous for the company, so getting a strong foothold in more than one market could minimize any shockwaves. Nintendo acts like the grandpa who won't change unless he's forced to change, so we'll have to wait and see for them.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

If you'd ask me 8 months ago, I would have put my money on a fall 2019 release of PS5.

But apparently neither Nintendo Switch nor the upcoming launch of the XBOX One X have affected PS4 sales so far. 2019 is still on the table, but I suppose 2020 is the more likely choice right now.

At the end of the day PS4 sales are going to crater eventually, and Sony will make sure its successor is ready to go as soon as that process starts. PS4 sales in 2018 will be driven by major 1st party exclusives across the year and maybe a further price cut to $249 for the regular 1TB SKU.

In 2019, however, PS4 (and XBOX) will be 6 years old, the market will be rather saturated and all those late adopters are probably not so-called high-value customers, either (as in: lower PS+ subscription rate and lower software tie ratio).

The biggest challenge for Sony will be to differentiate PS5 from PS4. If "power" and not some other gimmick is the main differentiator, that difference in power must be significant, both compared towards PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro. If Sony goes down that road, I really hope they'll opt for a $499 solution, especially since they probably have a head-start of at least a year towards the next XBOX.

 

[Deleted member 22585]

I think it's gonna be 2020. While the idea of 60fps is a nice dream to have, it's not going to happen across the board. I'm also a sucker for image quality, but it's not the most important improvement I want from a new generation.

I want the worlds to be more believable and interactive. This means physics and AI routines, I want realistic destruction with dynamic environments and an interesting AI that surprises me. If we talk about graphics, I think the most important things to improve are realistic lighting and draw distances.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Gonna say something youll be upset about OP.

Many games still will be sub native 4K. They'll either use checkerboard rendering, geometry rendering, or temporal resolution scalng/temporal AA methods instead.

its a lot cheaper and allows them to not eat up their power just with straight pixels while making better fidelity games in other areas

 

[LoyalPhoenix]

uhh Hitman just got announced to be yet another native 4K title on X so...the real 4K era is kinda here already (definitely here on PC)

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Two things:

(i) At typical console gaming viewing distances, the difference between 4k and some lower resolution with checker-boarding solution, is small enough that even with Next-Gen console hardware, rendering native 4k will simply be too much of a waste of performance.

Far more important than the native rendering resolution or choice of re-projection technique for up-scaling, is the overall Image Quality of the games; of which rendering resolution makes up only a small part. This brings me to my next point:

(ii) 60fps is simply never going to be standard on all games on a console, unless all games are targeting VR platforms. It's as simple as that. As a gamer, it's best to either not get your hopes up, or simply move to the PC platform, spend more and never look back. On a platform with a fixed hardware configuration like a console, target framerate will always be a decision based on what makes the most sense for a given game. And for games that aren't twitch shooters, fighting games or racers, given the relatively significant amount more "shiny" that can be delivered through dropping to 30fps, for marketing reasons alone, 30fps will more than often win out.

Which brings me to my final point... as it pertains to next-gen visuals, I'm confident that "prettier pixels" will win out vs. native rendering resolution and framerate, in almost every case. More of our next-gen CPU and GPU grunt will be dedicated towards better animations, better lighting algorithms, better material shaders, better shadowing, higher texture res. and texture filtering, better Anti-Aliasing solutions.

All of these things will provide an appreciably more "next-gen" graphical experience than simply native 4k rendering and/or 60fps target framerate alone.

Best to temper expectations accordingly.

 

[MinerArcaniner]

I am at a loss as to what they can do with the next gen consoles to make them genuinely compelling.

Last generation, I worried Sony/MS would put out cheap hardware, and thus not offer a big enough leap from the PS3/360 in graphics or gameplay. Killzone Shadow Fall and Ryse proved my worries about graphics unfounded, but gameplay no so much--and I think it's more due to business choices than hardware.

Even if Sony and MS offer beast mode 20TFLOPs+ machines, how many studios could take advantage of that and what would they do with it? Given how far I've drifted away from AAA compared to last gen, I fear more power will only exacerbate my problems with it rather than fix them. Especially with 4K bound to be a basic expectation rather than a premium extra.

I've been playing video games for over 25 years now; this is the first time I was more worried about what new hardware will bring than excited.

 

[curiouscharles]

I think either:

1. we see the next gen start in 2020/2021 and no the consoles can't hit 4k in all honesty [just like PS4 and especially Xbone weren't really 1080p machines]

2. we see the next gen start in 2022/2023 and yes the consoles are more likely to hit 4k without the games looking like plain boring doodoo birds

Best to temper expectations accordingly.

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precisely.

tech just isn't moving as fast as it used to in the 5 year generational cycle days.

Gonna say something youll be upset about OP.

Many games still will be sub native 4K. They'll either use checkerboard rendering, geometry rendering, or temporal resolution scalng/temporal AA methods instead.

its a lot cheaper and allows them to not eat up their power just with straight pixels while making better fidelity games in other areas

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yup, yup, and yup.

the raw pixel jump from 1080p -> 2160p is insane [4x], and i wouldn't personally justify or even fully approve of devoting all future processing power improvements to it, and it alone.

i feel like it would require a culture of stagnancy in other areas of graphical fidelity - otherwise we'd see an erosion of framerate standards again.

I am at a loss as to what they can do with the next gen consoles to make them genuinely compelling.

Last generation, I worried Sony/MS would put out cheap hardware, and thus not offer a big enough leap from the PS3/360 in graphics or gameplay. Killzone Shadow Fall and Ryse proved my worries about graphics unfounded, but gameplay no so much--and I think it's more due to business choices than hardware.

Even if Sony and MS offer beast mode 20TFLOPs+ machines, how many studios could take advantage of that and what would they do with it? Given how far I've drifted away from AAA compared to last gen. I fear like more power will only exacerbate my problems with it rather than fix them. Especially with 4K bound to be a basic expectation rather than a premium extra.

I've been playing video games for over 25 years now; this is the first time I was more worried about what new hardware will bring than excited.

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this is a really interesting post actually.

i've been somewhat perplexed / melancholic when thinking about the real / proper next genernational development for awhile now myself, so this was particularly poignant food for thougth for me, thnx.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I am at a loss as to what they can do with the next gen consoles to make them genuinely compelling.

Last generation, I worried Sony/MS would put out cheap hardware, and thus not offer a big enough leap from the PS3/360 in graphics or gameplay. Killzone Shadow Fall and Ryse proved my worries about graphics unfounded, but gameplay no so much--and I think it's more due to business choices than hardware.

Even if Sony and MS offer beast mode 20TFLOPs+ machines, how many studios could take advantage of that and what would they do with it? Given how far I've drifted away from AAA compared to last gen, I fear more power will only exacerbate my problems with it rather than fix them. Especially with 4K bound to be a basic expectation rather than a premium extra.

I've been playing video games for over 25 years now; this is the first time I was more worried about what new hardware will bring than excited.

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Whilst I'd argue that your concerns are not entirely unfounded, I believe that there is possibly hope on the horizon in the form of AMD's new Zen CPU architecture.

One of the biggest reasons for the lack of meaningful gameplay innovation between Gens 7 and 8 was the choice of CPU in the PS4/XB1. This was indeed a business decision to include an octa-core low power, low clockspeed, relatively low performance part in Sony and MS's Gen8 boxes, but it was a decisions they were essentially forced into by the requirements of their design (i.e. wanting a relatively lower power-envelope APU design, as opposed to using two separate dies for the CPU and GPU) as well as the market realities, i.e. AMD's bigger 3+GHz Buldozer core successor "Steamroller" simply wasn't ready in time, and so there really wasn't any other option than to go with Jaguar cores.

This next-generational transition will be different, as for the first time in a very long time, AMD has a competitive desktop CPU solution ready, i.e. Ryzen; one that has already seen its first iteration in the PC space. So a 7nm low powered 3+GHz Zen CPU for the PS5/XBTwo is not even just likely, it's a practical certainty.

In which case, with new modern desktop CPU performance, the PS5/XBTwo will be able to simply do things that PS4/XB1 could never dream of... even if they get paired with a somewhat underwhelming GPU (e.g. around 8 TFLOPs).

In light of this, I'd argue that there's every reason to be excited again for next-gen. As we're almost certain in for a perceptible step-change in game simulation possibilities; from richer more believable AI, to more complex physics (think Red Faction Guerrilla on steroids), to stuff like fluid simulation, procedural animation systems, richer higher granularity collision detection etc..