Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT8| - The Dark Tower (See Staff Post)

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

natestellar said:
If you believe the die size to be true, then no matter how high they push the clocks difference is going to be at least 20% which is quite significant, it doesn't align with what Schreier wrote about specs of the two being similar.

The running narrative is that early devkits from both companies stated they wanted 10+TF.

If we are to believe tomwarren he claims that internal first party studios were the only ones privy to the 12 target.

Fast forward to December - Playstation 5 is still around 10 TF and Xbox has a controlled leak to Windows Central of a 12 TF Target.

This explains why earlier in the year Andrew Reiner and other journalists including Klee may have heard PS5 was performing slightly better.

Deleted member 52190 · Dec 18, 2019

,

natestellar said:
If you believe the die size to be true, then no matter how high they push the clocks difference is going to be at least 20% which is quite significant, it doesn't align with what Schreier wrote about specs of the two being similar.

Nothing they say align with anything coming from the insiders.

And we are back at 8 tf.

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
Got a link to APISAK confirming that leak? I dont remember that part at all

Sorry I might be misremembering. I've asked multiple times for the 300mm2 PS5 APU leak - but haven't had anyone respond. I do remember us talking us about it.

Deleted member 52190 · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
The running narrative is that early devkits from both companies stated they wanted 10+TF.

If we are to believe tomwarren he claims that internal first party studios were the only ones privy to the 12 target.

Fast forward to December - Playstation 5 is still around 10 TF and Xbox has a controlled leak to Windows Central of a 12 TF Target.

This explains why earlier in the year Andrew Reiner and other journalists including Klee may have heard PS5 was performing slightly better.

That doenst explain why klee continues to say nothing change.

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
Sorry I might be misremembering. I've asked multiple times for the 300mm2 PS5 APU leak - but haven't had anyone respond. I do remember us talking us about it.

This place just jumped for that leak because of the high clocks of the PS5

And another leak from that same forum already got debunked so i am not sure why is it so trustworthy here

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

Rumpestump said:
And we are back to 8 again I see.

We aren't back at 8. I tried to show three situations where things can go horribly bad or the stars can align and we win the lotto.

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
This place just jumped for that leak because of the high clocks of the PS5

Cc DukeBlueBall - do you have the source? I believe the number was linked to komachi somehow?

Psyrgery · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
I've been beating this drum for a good minute. When the Asian message board leaked the PS5 APU being 300mm- it was bound to 44CU at the very maximum.

There are multiple situations for PS5 - but it will be impossible to match Scarlett if it has 8 to 12 more CUs and clocking high.

Pessimist:
PS5 36 CU at 1.8 ghz = 8.2 TF

Realist :
PS5 40 CU at 2ghz = 10.2 TF

Stupidly Optimistic aka (will only happen if there's something we have completely missed or are not accounting for) :

PS5 44 CU at 2.15ghz = 12.1 TF
PS5 48 CU at 2 ghz = 12.2 TF

Klee already shot down the rumours of PS5 being 10.2 TFlops or lower.

My guess is that Ps5 will be 11Tflops (based on the rumours that both MS and Sony wanted to surpass Stadias' 10.7 Tflops) or higher.

Deleted member 50658 · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
The running narrative is that early devkits from both companies stated they wanted 10+TF.

If we are to believe tomwarren he claims that internal first party studios were the only ones privy to the 12 target.

Fast forward to December - Playstation 5 is still around 10 TF and Xbox has a controlled leak to Windows Central of a 12 TF Target.

This explains why earlier in the year Andrew Reiner and other journalists including Klee may have heard PS5 was performing slightly better.

Except after the 12TF rumor not one of the "insiders" have said anything has changed.

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
There was an Asian message board that leaked PS5 APU being 300mm. It was than confirmed by TUM APISAK but the fine details escape me.

DukeBlueBall measured and estimated the Scarlett render to 350mm

This is why we think what we think.

lol I'm not that pessimistic.

Still retain a bit of hope for this little blue console. Although it wont be surprising either if Sony decides it was the other parts that should be getting a bigger upgrade.

ImaginaShawn · Dec 18, 2019

Can anyone link me or even just give me the name of the company that came up with the more efficient ray-tracing tech that people said might be in the PS5? I want to read up on it.

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

Flutter said:
lol I'm not that pessimistic.

Still retain a bit of hope for this little blue console. Although it wont be surprising either if Sony decides it was the other parts that should be getting a bigger upgrade.

Trust me I want to be wrong. I want both to be above 12 TF, but I don't want to err on the side of irrational optimism or misrepresent where I think things are landing.

chris 1515 · Dec 18, 2019

I don't think anymore photon tracing will be in PS5 but it is possible to use it without raytracing. It is mor like Voxel Cone Tracing I suppose this is better. This is what they use to do Davy Jones in Pirates of the Carribbean. But thin unlinked Photon Mapping from been useful only if the BVH can be chage every frame and Power VR technology. . I suppose they can use a 3D texture to replace the octree like Voxel Cone Tracing.

From a july job annouce

Senior Graphics Researcher (12 month contract) - London
PlayStation London, GB

Research and develop graphics techniques like real time ray tracing and point cloud rendering for next generation console platforms.

PointBasedColorBleeding

The second rendering part can use Point Based Color Bleeding and at least there seems more compatible with point cloud rendering

https://graphics.pixar.com/library/PointBasedColorBleeding/paper.pdf

7.2 of this document

7.2 Final gathering for photon mapping[/b]

Another application of this method is for photon mapping [Jensen
1996] with precomputed radiance and area estimates [Christensen
1999]. The most time-consuming part of photon mapping is the
ray-traced final gathering step needed to compute high-quality images. The point-based color bleeding method presented here can be
used directly to speed up the final gathering step. In this application, the points in the point cloud represent coarse global illumination computed with the photon mapping method (instead of direct
illumination).]

EDIT:
Research about the subject on a GPU

http://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1855&context=theses

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/304218587_Point_Based_Approximate_Color_Bleeding_With_Cuda

This is interesting

ImaginaShawn said:
Can anyone link me or even just give me the name of the company that came up with the more efficient ray-tracing tech that people said might be in the PS5? I want to read up on it.

Imagination Imgtec Power VR

Proven · Dec 18, 2019

I was listening to the Giant Bombcast and Jeff Gerstmann said that he had heard from developers that both of these consoles are super powerful and actually on par with PCs and not behind like most generations

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
If we are to believe @tomwarren he claims that internal first party studios were the only ones privy to the 12 target.

wait he did? Source?

I thought it was only that first party and certain big publishers has the Scarlett devkit. 12 teraflops for Series X should still be in play because the others work with specs given rather than the devkit itself.

Deleted member 50658 · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
We
We aren't back at 8. I tried to show three situations where things can go horribly bad or the stars can align and we win the lotto.

I mean sure you can't be sure of anything but taking all we heard from "insiders" about the power in these boxes 12TF is not shooting at the stars and winning the lotto is it since basically everything they said rather points to those kinds of numbers.

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

ImaginaShawn said:
Can anyone link me or even just give me the name of the company that came up with the more efficient ray-tracing tech that people said might be in the PS5? I want to read up on it.

powerVR

Brown Intruder · Dec 18, 2019

Xeontech said:
Just a bunch of fanboys that dont like what he's said for one reason or other. Mostly because he's said ps5 is a teeny bit more powerful.

I was going to say "Can you stop this bullshit please?"
But we all know that the sony boys would have it in for him if he had said that in reverse.

Still, anything said by anybody should be ingested with some skepticism. As I have said numerous times, look at how it turned out on GAF with the insiders!

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 18, 2019

chris 1515 said:
Imagination Imgtec Power VR

something from the IMG A-Series? I was reading up on that but it looks like a separate GPU and that seems rather expensive.

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 18, 2019

Brown Intruder said:
I was going to say "Can you stop this bullshit please?"
But we all know that the sony boys would have it in for him if he had said that in reverse.

Still, anything said by anybody should be ingested with some skepticism. As I have said numerous times, look at how it turned out on GAF with the insiders!

I dont mind having skepticism about insiders, but the GAF problem is an unrelated matter. Those are anonymous, while we know who Klee is, and his history.

chris 1515 · Dec 18, 2019

Flutter said:
something from the IMG A-Series? I was reading up on that but it looks like a separate GPU and that seems rather expensive.

There is a raytracing part, you don't need the full GPU.

https://pcper.com/2009/04/caustic-graphics-ray-tracing-acceleration-technology-review/

At the beginning it was a card like PhysX the raytracing part is independant of the GPU. After I think Sony use AMD tech but maybe with Photon Mapping and this is the difference.

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

Rumpestump said:
I mean sure you can't be sure of anything but taking all we heard from "insiders" about the power in these boxes 12TF is not shooting at the stars and winning the lotto is it since basically everything they said rather points to those kinds of numbers.

If PS5 is really 300mm2 - reaching 12 TF is winning the lotto.

The only reason Scarletr pulls it off:
It's far bigger aka 350 to 360mm.

ImaginaShawn · Dec 18, 2019

chris 1515 said:
I don't think anymore photon tracing will be in PS5 but it is possible to use it without raytracing. It is mor akin to Voxel Cone Tracing I suppose this is better. This is what they use to do Davy Jones in Pirates of the Carribbean. But thin unlinked Photon Mapping from been useful only if the BVH can be chage every frame and Power VR technology. . I suppose they can use a 3D texture to replace the octree like Voxel Cone Tracing.

From a july job annouce

PointBasedColorBleeding

The second rendering part can use Point Based Color Bleeding and at least there seems more compatible with point cloud rendering

https://graphics.pixar.com/library/PointBasedColorBleeding/paper.pdf

7.2 of this document

Imagination Imgtec Power VR

modiz said:
powerVR

Thanks guys.

DrDamn · Dec 18, 2019

DukeBlueBall said:
Gotcha. That's going to be really immersive.

Rumble triggers were one of the features that originally sold me on the X1. There were really well used in Forza, helping you find the right point when accelerating out of a corner for example. I don't think anyone else used it so well though. Love the idea of variable resistance and look forward to feeling it used well in games.

Brown Intruder · Dec 18, 2019

Flutter said:
I dont mind having skepticism about insiders, but the GAF problem is an unrelated matter. Those are anonymous, while we know who Klee is, and his history.

That is a very good point. Perhaps it is just me then.? But I am still not a full believer

natestellar · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
The running narrative is that early devkits from both companies stated they wanted 10+TF.

If we are to believe tomwarren he claims that internal first party studios were the only ones privy to the 12 target.

Fast forward to December - Playstation 5 is still around 10 TF and Xbox has a controlled leak to Windows Central of a 12 TF Target.

This explains why earlier in the year Andrew Reiner and other journalists including Klee may have heard PS5 was performing slightly better.

That's pure conjecture on your part of 'early dev-kits were 10+TF'. The narrative has always been to beat Stadia TF numbers of 10.7 TF which is not going to happen for Sony on a die with 40CUs no matter how fancy a solution they devise.

Besides, for a long time, 'Anaconda' was always assumed to be the beefiest of all machines. Reiner threw a curve ball around E3, and later Klee gave us a lot of details. Everything since then has pointed towards them being similar with different sources giving slight edge to one or the other. Nothing has changed post-TGA, there's literally no journalist or insider out there who's claimed MS raised the benchmark by going for 12TF. On the contrary, you have Klee asserting as to what he wrote earlier.

Snakeeee said:
,

Nothing they say align with anything coming from the insiders.

And we are back at 8 tf.

I find Schreier to be most reliable given his connections in the industry, few weeks back he wrote how the two machines were similar. Unless, MS manufactured a new devkit housing a large silicon between then and TGA, I don't understand the reason the fear-mongering.

DukeBlueBall · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
Cc DukeBlueBall - do you have the source? I believe the number was linked to komachi somehow?

https://twitter.com/komachi_ensaka/status/1160962528760832011?lang=en

If people thinks Komachi is fake then we're officially in coco land.

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

DukeBlueBall said:
https://twitter.com/komachi_ensaka/status/1160962528760832011?lang=en

If people thinks Komachi is fake then we're officially in coco land.

Okay
And how does this confirm the 300mm vs 350mm leak? Because its faster than you expected? Implication isnt confirmation.
Most of what was implied about this gen was wrong so far.

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

DukeBlueBall said:
https://twitter.com/komachi_ensaka/status/1160962528760832011?lang=en

If people thinks Komachi is fake then we're officially in coco land.

Where is the 300mm2 number from?

DukeBlueBall · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
Okay
And how does this confirm the 300mm vs 350mm leak? Because its faster than you expected? Implication isnt confirmation.

The 300m vs 350mm leak was from theTaiwanese national bulletin board. It's not confirmed.

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

natestellar said:
Unless, MS manufactured a new devkit housing a large silicon between then and TGA, I don't understand the reason the fear-mongering.

It's not fear mongering. Both machines will be within 15 percent or 20 maximum of one another.

And its not a total wash either, Playstation is said to have a far better SSD.

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

DukeBlueBall said:
The 300m vs 350mm leak was from theTaiwanese national bulletin board. It's not confirmed.

Thuway was talking about komachi confirming 300mm leak somewhere.

sleepr · Dec 18, 2019

Proven said:
I was listening to the Giant Bombcast and Jeff Gerstmann said that he had heard from developers that both of these consoles are super powerful and actually on par with PCs and not behind like most generations

So basically what Jason has been saying too. Thanks.

At least we're not getting another "weak" generation.

Scently · Dec 18, 2019

Proven said:
I was listening to the Giant Bombcast and Jeff Gerstmann said that he had heard from developers that both of these consoles are super powerful and actually on par with PCs and not behind like most generations

Link to the cast? and timestamp? Thanks.

DukeBlueBall · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
Thuway was talking about komachi confirming 300mm leak somewhere.

Found the source.

Re: [情報] Zen3/Milan官方架構圖出來了

IPC再高也不能讓我準時下班目前天宮本家的產品都挺安靜的首先Renoir應該趕不上今年上應該說所有要靠輪班星7nm量產的計畫都被往後延最少三個月然後天宮就發了mail來

www.ptt.cc

From the OP (text in white):

"Anubis現在已經沒有在做，可能是開發機代號 Arden沒意外應該會是要上市的版本另外 Arden進度比較快，OBR還在初期驗證而且Arden比OBR大了不只一號(350 vs 300 mm2)"

"Anubis is not doing it now, it may be the development machine code
Arden is not surprised that it should be the version to be launched

In addition
Arden's progress is relatively fast, and OBR is still in its early stages of verification
And Arden is more than one size larger than OBR (350 vs 300 mm2)"

Curiously OP mentions Sparkman in the beginning, which he states is a small APU for consoles. We know now that Sparkman is Lockhart.

"A bunch of weird codenames are now running online. For example: Arden OBR / Oberon Sparkman. The first one should be the Xbox. The second is full of opportunities. PS5. The third one is very interesting. The case layout that has only recently been evaluated is very similar to Renoir, but Slightly fatter and not a FPx pin for laptops, but a BLx common to semi-custom SoCs ... Are there any game machine makers missing?"

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

Proven said:
I was listening to the Giant Bombcast and Jeff Gerstmann said that he had heard from developers that both of these consoles are super powerful and actually on par with PCs and not behind like most generations

So echoing what jason said, great
thuway you can calm your 8TF fears

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
So echoing what jason said, great
thuway you can calm your 8TF fears

Don't worry I never thought 8TF would be a thing :). I've been firmly in 10.2-10.7 land.

Also here's the quote from the link on PTT:
"Anubis is no longer doing it. It may be that the development machine code is Arden. There should be no accident. It should be the version to be launched. In addition, Arden is progressing faster. OBR is still in initial verification. And Arden is larger than OBR by more than one (350 vs 300 mm2)."

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
Don't worry I never thought 8TF would be a thing :). I've been firmly in 10.2-10.7 land.

Also here's the quote from the link on PTT:
"Anubis is no longer doing it. It may be that the development machine code is Arden. There should be no accident. It should be the version to be launched. In addition, Arden is progressing faster. OBR is still in initial verification. And Arden is larger than OBR by more than one (350 vs 300 mm2)."

Well, we know this is wrong based on what matt told us regarding the schedules

VX1 · Dec 18, 2019

DukeBlueBall said:
Curiously OP mentions Sparkman, which he states is a small APU. We know now that Sparkman is Lockhart.

Interesting,so it seems they knew something after all.

DukeBlueBall · Dec 18, 2019

VX1 said:
Interesting,so it seems they knew something after all.

Yeah these Chinese / Taiwanese forums usually gets the heads up on chips, mobile, PC, etc because that's where they are tested and manufactured.

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
Thuway was talking about komachi confirming 300mm leak somewhere.

Yeah thats where it got confusing.

Ozorov · Dec 18, 2019

Proven said:
I was listening to the Giant Bombcast and Jeff Gerstmann said that he had heard from developers that both of these consoles are super powerful and actually on par with PCs and not behind like most generations

Do you have a timestamp?

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
Well, we know this is wrong based on what matt told us regarding the schedules

The PTT board has too many interesting finds. They mention Oberon, Sparkman (Lockhart) , and Arden. I'll refrain from commenting but I want to be wrong. If PS5 is actually bigger than 300mm - it'll be a great thing for PS5 GPU predicted power.

VX1 · Dec 18, 2019

DukeBlueBall said:
Yeah these Chinese / Taiwanese forums usually gets the heads up on chips, mobile, PC, etc because that's where they are tested and manufactured.

What does potential ~300mm2 PS5 APU mean? Those very high clocks we heard, i guess?

nelsonroyale · Dec 18, 2019

rbej said:
For me 2 ghz and more in retail version is stupidly optymistic.

Another important date:

January, February - final specification
March, April - start of production

But so is 64cus...things seems to have moved on over the last year. Seems these consoles are going to draw a lot of energy...

thuway · Dec 18, 2019

VX1 said:
What does potential ~300mm2 PS5 APU mean? Those very high clocks we heard, i guess?

It means 44 to maybe 48 CU.

natestellar · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
It's not fear mongering. Both machines will be within 15 percent or 20 maximum of one another.

Difference of 15-20% in GPU power is quite significant, if that was actually the case, more journalists/insiders would've laid emphasis on it.

Besides, Sony know it themselves how significant a power advantage was at the launch of PS4. Think logically, Xbox One X had 40 CUs on a die manufactured with 16nm process, going to 7nm reduces the size by ~20%. Why would Sony handicap themselves by sticking with same parameters (40CUs) when they know their competitor already went large in a mid-gen refresh 3 years ago?

Besides the only reason I quoted you was because you wrote Komachi somehow confirmed the 300mm2 die size, which is absolutely not the case. So yes, it very much IS fear-mongering based on conjecture.

VX1 said:
What does potential ~300mm2 PS5 APU mean? Those very high clocks we heard, i guess?

No of CUs which you can put depends on the size of a die, clocks have nothing to do with. That's a power/thermal issue. A ~300mm2 die on a 7nm process would mean only a maximum of ~40CUs can be fit.

modiz · Dec 18, 2019

thuway said:
The PTT board has too many interesting finds. They mention Oberon, Sparkman (Lockhart) , and Arden. I'll refrain from commenting but I want to be wrong. If PS5 is actually bigger than 300mm - it'll be a great thing for PS5 GPU predicted power.

We knew of all those names before that post, so someone could have easily just took those names and made a story out of a shakespearean tale :p

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 18, 2019

natestellar said:
No of CUs which you can put depends on the size of a die, clocks have nothing to do with. That's a power/thermal issue. A ~300mm2 die on a 7nm process would mean only a maximum of ~44CUs can be fit.

So 250mm for GPU and 50 for CPU?

DukeBlueBall · Dec 18, 2019

modiz said:
We knew of all those names before that post, so someone could have easily just took those names and made a story out of a shakespearean tale :p

I have to give kudos for guessing that Sparkman is a small custom chip for consoles.

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