Disclaimer: It's Nintendo, they make weird decisions all of the time, we all can try to predict things but at the end of the day they operate on their schedule lmao
I don't think it adds up, I really don't and
I've mentioned this in the Nintendo OT. From now to May 12, 2023, we have a STACKED line up on the Switch. There's absolutely no reason to announce a Switch 2 during this time. The sales will keep getting better, the Switch will keep selling from now then and on top of that, they've already made a statement regarding the state of the Switch itself:
I don't think this statement would've been said if this wasn't the genuine truth. On top of that, I think what's gonna happen or is at least more likely to happen is that Nintendo will make yet another limited edition SWOLED in 2023. Why? They've done it for Splatoon 3 and they've done it for Pokemon Scarlet/Violet. If you think they wouldn't do it to go all out on BOTW2 with a likely limited edition version of the game (artbook, steelcase etc) and a SWOLED model, I'd like to think you're wrong on this.
So, with this being the case, I think this absolutely writes off 2023 as a whole. I think we'll get at least one or two more big flagship titles for the Switch to finish the year that'll go along side Pikmin 4 in the latter half of the year along side some other non-flagship Switch games. This leaves up 2024 to be entirely open, gives them the ability to announce the Switch 2 early 2024 with a launch date of mid to Holiday Season of 2024. Could I see a late 2023 reveal and a Spring 2024 release? Sure, I guess but I could see them prioritizing finishing the full year of 2023 with a ton of games out so they can start 2024 with a clean sate and clean marketing run for the Switch 2