Nintendo stock down almost 7% after the E3 showcase (down another 5.27% per Tokyo Stock Exchange)

[Deleted member 8674]

The general consumer, hence Switch sales doubling and preorders of Smash and Pokémon going crazy.

You're entitled to your opinion and view of the lineup but don't act like your view is the only view

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I didn't. most of Nintendo fans I know, Era thread reaction and other places and even gaming media stream talked about how disappointing it was. they showed 20 minutes because they have nothing else to show. and you say how that got switched to "it was great see pre-orders of 2 games"

 

[IIFloodyII]

Watch both PS5 and XBnext come out with portable devices you can play on/stream to. Mark my words.

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The PS4 already does that, PS5 will likely have Remote Play too. Would have nothing to do with the Switch.
I very much doubt Sony make another dedicated portable gaming system or that the PS5/Xbox Two will be Hybrid.

 

[Chalfonts]

No-one expects the switch to get all the thord party games

But what it is getting is pathetic and even that's coming out late

 

[Deleted member 8674]

Or it means a lot of people like Smash.

I can't tell if you're serious or not...

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Yeah because Smash console attach rate 100%.

 

[Deleted member 8593]

Last year it was.

April: Mario Kart 8 DX
May: Nothing. Minecraft was the big title
June: Arms

April: Labo
May: Tropical Freeze and Hyrule Warriors DE
June: Sushi Striker and Mario Tennis

Comparing those periods, it really isn't that much different with only MK8DX being a really component of seller even if a port. But even without comparing them, Switch was still riding on the launch period of the console so I find it completely normal that it's not on the same level.

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The problem is that if Nintendo aims to sell 20m this year, being down in Q1 is gonna put them in a difficult position. They're gonna need exceptionally strong Q3 and Q4 sales, like peak Wii levels.

 

[Deleted member 5535]

The problem is that if Nintendo aims to sell 20m this year, being down in Q1 is gonna put them in a difficult position. They're gonna need exceptionally strong Q3 and Q4 sales, like peak Wii levels.

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I'm confident that it will happen but if not, It's not like missing it will cause such a problem with the volume that the console is selling and will sell in holidays. Not a end of the world for Nintendo and of course, not the console. Still a pretty good number, I believe.

Of course, hypotethically in this situation where they don't reach and still sell very well. Not something like less than 10m in the entire FY.

 

[DeuceGamer]

I still don't get the big drop. Even if investors are worried they won't hit their target of 20m they are still in the best position they have been in years.

Successful Switch console that is still selling well (Q1 was never going to make or break the target). Even if it misses the 20m target it will still sell very very well and the long term outlook should still be very positive IMO. If it only sales 19m for instance I don't think that would have warranted the sharp decline we've seen.

They have Mario Kart Mobile expected to launch this FY and depending on the monetization it should do really well and could blow up (again depending on monetization). They also just announced recently they are investing further into mobile with investment into CyGames which should help the frequency of their releases and revenue.

They also have successful side projects like NES/SNES mini which are selling well and will likely continue to sell very well during the holiday season. Amiibo isn't getting as frequent releases but with Smash launching we should at least have some good sales for the new characters with a renewed interest in some of the previously released characters.

Just seems weird of the sudden and sharp drop.

 

[Saint-14]

And what would you say on the subject if Switch becomes the best selling platform this year based primarily on the hardware and Smash and Pokemon while PS4 has every big hitter under the sun?

The desirability of the hardware is factored into every purchase.

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The PS4 is a 5 years old console, Switch better outsell it if Nintendo wants to reach their forecast.

 

[Renna Hazel]

Yeah because Smash console attach rate 100%.

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What? It's a system seller...so people will buy Switch to play Smash thus the sales increased after it was revealed. No one said every single Switch owner was going to buy it.

 

[Deleted member 8674]

What? It's a system seller...so people will buy Switch to play Smash thus the sales increased after it was revealed. No one said every single Switch owner was going to buy it.

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I know but what about the rest of us who care about other titles and instead of a core Pokemon we got Go until 2019 and no Animal crossing and barley anything outside of indies and Smash? nothing against indie I got Hollow Knight from the direct at least.

 

[Renna Hazel]

I know but what about the rest of us who care about other titles and instead of a core Pokemon we got Go until 2019 and no Animal crossing and barley anything outside of indies and Smash? nothing against indie I got Hollow Knight from the direct at least.

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I was merely commenting on you saying E3 had no effect on Switch sales doubling when the report says it's happening alongside Smash Brothers, so that would indicate that Smash is selling consoles.

It's fine to be personally disappointed with the Direct, but don't say that the market performance of the console can't have been positively effected by E3 just because you were personally disappointed. If you don't care about Smash, Pokemon, Mario Party, indie titles and the third party ports that were announced, then I supposed you have a right to be upset with the Direct, but you have to acknowledge that these games are appealing to many other people. I personally don't care about Animal Crossing, but I wont claim the game wont move hardware just because it's not my cup of tea.

Hopefully the next Direct will have more games that you want.

 

[Deleted member 8674]

I was merely commenting on you saying E3 had no effect on Switch sales doubling when the report says it's happening alongside Smash Brothers, so that would indicate that Smash is selling consoles.

It's fine to be personally disappointed with the Direct, but don't say that the market performance of the console can't have been positively effected by E3 just because you were personally disappointed. If you don't care about Smash, Pokemon, Mario Party, indie titles and the third party ports that were announced, then I supposed you have a right to be upset with the Direct, but you have to acknowledge that these games are appealing to many other people. I personally don't care about Animal Crossing, but I wont claim the game wont move hardware just because it's not my cup of tea.

Hopefully the next Direct will have more games that you want.

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I hope so too.

 

[Deleted member 8593]

I'm confident that it will happen but if not, It's not like missing it will cause such a problem with the volume that the console is selling and will sell in holidays. Not a end of the world for Nintendo and of course, not the console. Still a pretty good number, I believe.

Of course, hypotethically in this situation where they don't reach and still sell very well. Not something like less than 10m in the entire FY.

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It's not a question of whether the numbers are good or not, but whether they meet their expectations. They set the 20m target based on factors like their planned lineup. If they don't meet it, shareholders will demand to know why. Hell, if the numbers for Q1 are already down like Nintendo predicts, people are gonna want to know why as well. Last year was exceptional and now they're trying to outperform it by almost 5 million units:

Q1 - 1.97m
Q2 - 2.92m
Q3 - 7.24m
Q4 - 2.92m

In a year where Wii sold 20.5m, it sold like this.

Q1 - 2.23m
Q2 - 3.5m
Q3 - 11.32m
Q4 - 3.48m

Barring a very good Q2, which doesn't look particularly heavy either, they're gonna have to sell around 15m in Q3 and Q4. It's gonna be difficult to frame them not reaching their targets as anything but a failure. Nintendo has taken a "don't worry, we got this" approach all the while not instilling a lot of confidence so it's no surprise that people are doubtful.

 

[Deleted member 5167]

I still don't get the big drop. Even if investors are worried they won't hit their target of 20m they are still in the best position they have been in years.

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The investors constantly buying and selling don't like boringly stable companies, because there is little margin for short term profits. They don't actually give a single fuck how successful a company is, how it is run or even what it does. Its all about the share pricing.
The institutional investors that are there for dividends do like boringly stable companies, because they are not making money on the trading of shares. They make money on the success of the company when it pays out its profits as dividends.

 

[SheriffMcDuck]

I still don't get the big drop. Even if investors are worried they won't hit their target of 20m they are still in the best position they have been in years.

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Nintendo looking the best they have in years is why people are selling. Who knows if they'll maintain this mindshare for the next couple of years.

 

[Sonicfan1373]

I mean make no mistake about it, this isn't a good situation for Nintendo. The stock is taking some pretty serious hits and it's not something to just brush off.

That said Nintendo is still in a very good position and theres no need for anyone to panic. But they are going to have to do something to address this moving forward if the price continues to fall.

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Apparently one of the reasons for this sell off is due to expectations of slow Switch sales. As a sales insider would you say we should be concerned with the system's sales?

 

[DeuceGamer]

The investors constantly buying and selling don't like boringly stable companies, because there is little margin for short term profits. They don't actually give a single fuck how successful a company is, how it is run or even what it does. Its all about the share pricing.
The institutional investors that are there for dividends do like boringly stable companies, because they are not making money on the trading of shares. They make money on the success of the company when it pays out its profits as dividends.

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I can understand that to an extent, but this is a pretty sharp drop at a time that Nintendo seems to be in a position where even if they miss their targets they should still be in a very good position.

I guess what I'm saying is it's not just that it's dropped, but the how much it's dropped in a short time frame when Nintendo seems like they are in a good position now and in the near future.

Nintendo looking the best they have in years is why people are selling. Who knows if they'll maintain this mindshare for the next couple of years.

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In my post I gave several reasons why they are in a good position that relates more to their future than the present.

Even if the Switch misses its 20m target for this FY it seems clear that it's going to be an overall success this year and in the future. If they sell 18-19m that gives them a respectable install base only 2 years in and points to them having a very profitable eco system for the next 3+ years.

The upcoming holidays have Mario Party, Smash, and Pokemon which are all big sellers and should move a lot of software units.

The NES/SNES Classic Mini's will sell a significant amount this holiday and are an additional revenue stream Nintendo has tapped into. They have also demonstrated they can release more of these with the variants on the Famicom mini as well as other systems like N64.

One of the biggest positives in terms of investors should be their mobile efforts. They have Mario Kart set to release this FY. It should be another big mobile release and has an opportunity to be a massive hit financially, depending on how they end up monetizing it. On top of that they have announced additional mobile titles and even more investments into mobile with a promising mobile Publshier (CyGames).

When I say Nintendonis in their best position I'm not just talking about currently but in the near future as well. With that said the drop doesn't make sense to me, especially considering the large amount in a short time frame.

Edit: they are also adding an additional revenue stream with paid online. While I know it may not be what gamers are wanting but it should be an additonal revenue stream in the future that Nintendo currently doesn't have. The fact that you need online to play games like Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon 2, Pokemon, Mario Party, etc... alone is enough to get a large portion of gamers buy in and that's not even counting the additional value of Virtual Console games.

 

[wrowa]

I still don't get the big drop. Even if investors are worried they won't hit their target of 20m they are still in the best position they have been in years.

Successful Switch console that is still selling well (Q1 was never going to make or break the target). Even if it misses the 20m target it will still sell very very well and the long term outlook should still be very positive IMO. If it only sales 19m for instance I don't think that would have warranted the sharp decline we've seen.

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The stock price is based on the assumption they'll ship at least 20 million units. Once investors become doubtful of this assumption, they'll regard the stock as less valuable than before. This doesn't mean that investors think Nintendo's in trouble, but simply that they previously overvalued the stock (with the consequence that some investors don't think the stock is is worth keeping under their new assumptions). Switch's solid sales, their successful side projects and the potential of Nintendo's mobile offerings were already included in the previous stock prices.

Smash Bros and Pokemon are undoubtedly among the biggest releases of the year, but investors aren't convinced that two games (no matter how big) are enough to keep up Switch's momentum, especially considering Nintendo seems to be lacking big tentpole releases that could drive interest until November.

 

[Boiled Goose]

I can understand that to an extent, but this is a pretty sharp drop at a time that Nintendo seems to be in a position where even if they miss their targets they should still be in a very good position.

I guess what I'm saying is it's not just that it's dropped, but the how much it's dropped in a short time frame when Nintendo seems like they are in a good position now and in the near future.



In my post I gave several reasons why they are in a good position that relates more to their future than the present.

Even if the Switch misses its 20m target for this FY it seems clear that it's going to be an overall success this year and in the future. If they sell 18-19m that gives them a respectable install base only 2 years in and points to them having a very profitable eco system for the next 3+ years.

The upcoming holidays have Mario Party, Smash, and Pokemon which are all big sellers and should move a lot of software units.

The NES/SNES Classic Mini's will sell a significant amount this holiday and are an additional revenue stream Nintendo has tapped into. They have also demonstrated they can release more of these with the variants on the Famicom mini as well as other systems like N64.

One of the biggest positives in terms of investors should be their mobile efforts. They have Mario Kart set to release this FY. It should be another big mobile release and has an opportunity to be a massive hit financially, depending on how they end up monetizing it. On top of that they have announced additional mobile titles and even more investments into mobile with a promising mobile Publshier (CyGames).

When I say Nintendonis in their best position I'm not just talking about currently but in the near future as well. With that said the drop doesn't make sense to me, especially considering the large amount in a short time frame.

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They are in a good position for success but don't seem to be headed to transformative growth. The drop totally makes sense for me.

 

[nightstalker962]

It's not a question of whether the numbers are good or not, but whether they meet their expectations. They set the 20m target based on factors like their planned lineup. If they don't meet it, shareholders will demand to know why. Hell, if the numbers for Q1 are already down like Nintendo predicts, people are gonna want to know why as well. Last year was exceptional and now they're trying to outperform it by almost 5 million units:

Q1 - 1.97m
Q2 - 2.92m
Q3 - 7.24m
Q4 - 2.92m

In a year where Wii sold 20.5m, it sold like this.

Q1 - 2.23m
Q2 - 3.5m
Q3 - 11.32m
Q4 - 3.48m

Barring a very good Q2, which doesn't look particularly heavy either, they're gonna have to sell around 15m in Q3 and Q4. It's gonna be difficult to frame them not reaching their targets as anything but a failure. Nintendo has taken a "don't worry, we got this" approach all the while not instilling a lot of confidence so it's no surprise that people are doubtful.

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Yea the jump from 15 to 20 million units shipped is quite large, they have their work cut out for them.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

You can borrow Nintendo's. They expect Q1 to be weaker than last year.

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by how much? what constitutes "underwhelming" -5%? -10$% -25%??and yes, I know they aim to be lower than Q1 YoY but they also said it was within the plans.

I don't think you know what the word disparage means.

disparage
dɪˈsparɪdʒ/
verb

1. regard or represent as being of little worth.

Again please quote where I did such a thing to Switches software lineup.

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I literally quoted saying Switch line up was not great.

Doubled the sales of Switch hardware after that awful showing clearly means that was going to happen regardless.

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moving goalpost much, uh?

again 20 minutes of Smash but what if you don't care about Smash?

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thats ok, but on the context of the discussion, your personal opinion is moot. market reacted well to the Direct, Smash and Pokemon,

 

[Pablo Mesa]

The investors constantly buying and selling don't like boringly stable companies, because there is little margin for short term profits. They don't actually give a single fuck how successful a company is, how it is run or even what it does. Its all about the share pricing.
The institutional investors that are there for dividends do like boringly stable companies, because they are not making money on the trading of shares. They make money on the success of the company when it pays out its profits as dividends.

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Basically this^
the guy that owns a few hundred Stocks just care about constant fluctuation to buy and sell (similar to the people that buy and sell foreign exchange)
The people listed here are the less likely to be the ones selling stocks, hell, Im curious to see how the outstanding shares and share holder number change by the next IR

 

[Deleted member 9584]

Okay, but to what end? Wouldn't that just take away from the Switch?

How would that work?

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I'm no it saying I want them to do it. It just seems like they have something else brewing in the background. I can't find a reasonable explanation as to why 3DS now has almost no internal support and first party Switch output has been this poor for this whole year. Did Nintendo even release ANY new internal first party game's this year? Aren't they all farmed out to second party deals?

I think they don't want to waste the opportunity to have the dedicated handheld market all to themselves. And as long as 3DS keeps selling and they keep insisting that Switch is a console first and foremost, I think they are planning to release a new handheld.

The handhelds have always proven to keep their business afloat while the consoles have gone back and forth. To them, placing all their eggs in one basket is a dangerous game and it leaves them open for disastrous outcomes.

 

[Skittzo]

I'm no it saying I want them to do it. It just seems like they have something else brewing in the background. I can't find a reasonable explanation as to why 3DS now has almost no internal support and first party Switch output has been this poor for this whole year. Did Nintendo even release ANY new internal first party game's this year? Aren't they all farmed out to second party deals?

I think they don't want to waste the opportunity to have the dedicated handheld market all to themselves. And as long as 3DS keeps selling and they keep insisting that Switch is a console first and foremost, I think they are planning to release a new handheld.

The handhelds have always proven to keep their business afloat while the consoles have gone back and forth. To them, placing all their eggs in one basket is a dangerous game and it leaves them open for disastrous outcomes.

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So far this year for Switch they seemingly only have Labo and Captain Toad as EPD projects. A few 3DS games too, like WarioWare Gold.

Honestly if they have another handheld in the works that doesn't share a library with the Switch, that'll probably be the dumbest thing they have ever done. I would certainly dump all of my stock if that gets announced.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

I'm no it saying I want them to do it. It just seems like they have something else brewing in the background. I can't find a reasonable explanation as to why 3DS now has almost no internal support and first party Switch output has been this poor for this whole year. Did Nintendo even release ANY new internal first party game's this year? Aren't they all farmed out to second party deals?

I think they don't want to waste the opportunity to have the dedicated handheld market all to themselves. And as long as 3DS keeps selling and they keep insisting that Switch is a console first and foremost, I think they are planning to release a new handheld.

The handhelds have always proven to keep their business afloat while the consoles have gone back and forth. To them, placing all their eggs in one basket is a dangerous game and it leaves them open for disastrous outcomes.

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that scenario is long go, the PR was justified during Switch early life but at this point is no longer worth any concern, They kept repeating that DS was not the successor or GBA. when the dust settled, it was.

 

[Deleted member 8674]

thats ok, but on the context of the discussion, your personal opinion is moot. market reacted well to the Direct, Smash and Pokemon,

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Smash and Pokemon. Reacted well to the direct? No. It was an awful direct. Even for Smash fans that was too much information.

 

[Bunkles]

So far this year for Switch they seemingly only have Labo and Captain Toad as EPD projects. A few 3DS games too, like WarioWare Gold.

Honestly if they have another handheld in the works that doesn't share a library with the Switch, that'll probably be the dumbest thing they have ever done. I would certainly dump all of my stock if that gets announced.

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For sure. Nintendo is on such a good trajectory right now if they were to release another handheld with a brand new library of games they have definitely lost the plot.

The Switch is their only true way forward IMO. Keep boosting the power of the hybrid and keep the library going.

 

[Deleted member 9584]

that scenario is long go, the PR was justified during Switch early life but at this point is no longer worth any concern, They kept repeating that DS was not the successor or GBA. when the dust settled, it was.

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But the DS also had an extremely steady flow of first party games in the same time of its life cycle compared to the Switch. If Nintendo doesn't have another handheld brewing in the background, as an investor I'm going to wonder what in the heck their developers are doing especially after the almost nothing they released this year. I don't blame investors for selling shares when it looks like first party Nintendo is at a stand still.

The Switch is their only true way forward IMO. Keep boosting the power of the hybrid and keep the library going.

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I agree with this 100%, but if I was an investor I would get skittish because after this E3 it seems like even Nintendo isn't fully committing to Switch. The only first party game for the rest of the year is Super Mario Party. Smash and Pokémon (even though first party IP) are not internally developed. If I was financially invested in the company and I looked at this line up (and the earlier months) I would really question Nintendo's commitment to Switch as their sole gaming platform.

We aren't even getting the barrage of small experimental first party eShop titles like past systems got at this point in their life. They aren't even going full force with a VC on the system. It's as if first party Nintendo is at a loss as to what to do with the system.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

Smash and Pokemon. Reacted well to the direct? No. It was an awful direct. Even for Smash fans that was too much information.

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dont worry, if you keep repeating it, maybe it will become true 1 day, on the mean time, you can use this

But the DS also had an extremely steady flow of first party games in the same time of its life cycle compared to the Switch

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you are trying to compare dev time of a DS game to a Switch game...sit down, and think about that statement and what is wrong about it

 

[Pekola]

that scenario is long go, the PR was justified during Switch early life but at this point is no longer worth any concern, They kept repeating that DS was not the successor or GBA. when the dust settled, it was.

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Wasn't it repeated recently that they're working on a 3DS sucessor?

I'm almost sure that wasn't my imagination. I'm just trying to think of a scenario where that would be a smart thing to do.

 

[Bunkles]

Wasn't it repeated recently that they're working on a 3DS sucessor?

I'm almost sure that wasn't my imagination. I'm just trying to think of a scenario where that would be a smart thing to do.

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There isn't one. They got pocket covered with mobile and everything else covered with Switch. There is no place for a 3DS successor unless they sacrificed Switch, which would be really dumb.

 

[WestEgg]

Wasn't it repeated recently that they're working on a 3DS sucessor?

I'm almost sure that wasn't my imagination. I'm just trying to think of a scenario where that would be a smart thing to do.

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They're considering options to fill the 3DS's role in the market as an affordable entry level system. This could take the form of a revised cheaper Switch in the future, increased mobile development, a new handheld entirely, or anything else, but no specific plans have been commented on.

 

[Dr. Mario]

I accidentally my shares lol. I wanted to set a bottom to sell off, but the first time my order bugged, and the second time I forgot to switch it from limit order to stop loss order. Probably for the better anyway, I don't see this rally anymore anytime soon. Lesson learned, don't go long on a hype stock with a secretive board. Now I can be less cranky in this thread. But Nintendo man, what idiots.

 

[Mr_F_Snowman]

I mean make no mistake about it, this isn't a good situation for Nintendo. The stock is taking some pretty serious hits and it's not something to just brush off.

That said Nintendo is still in a very good position and theres no need for anyone to panic. But they are going to have to do something to address this moving forward if the price continues to fall.

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I highly doubt Nintendo is actually bothered much, its not as though they are looking to borrow or finance off the back of their share price or they are in danger of a hostile takeover. Its also not as if their public perception is influenced by it, a run of the mill Nintendo Direct will have more influence on their public perception.

The only real effect is on the few higher ups who own shares getting a slightly smaller bonus. Outside of that why do you think they will be overly bothered enough to the extent they will actively step in to curtail it? Their longtime shareholders are not the ones selling off. They will do nothing besides what was already planned - try to sell 20 million Switches and 100 million pieces of software while expanding their mobile efforts and branching into films / theme parks and come end of the year pay a fat dividend keeping the actual important long time shareholders happy. Fluctuations of 10% are not going to bother them one way or the other

 

[wrowa]

But even without comparing them, Switch was still riding on the launch period of the console so I find it completely normal that it's not on the same level.

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That's kinda part of the problem, though. Nintendo didn't have a major system seller between this year's January and March either that could have helped to boost momentum going into March - April. Last year they had launch hype + Zelda + Mario Kart (Mario Kart alone being bigger than everything Nintendo's released this year so far - combined). Nothing they've got this year compares to that, it's all small fry in comparison.

This seems to continue until November which is, well, unfortunate

 

[Deleted member 9584]

you are trying to compare dev time of a DS game to a Switch game...sit down, and think about that statement and what is wrong about it

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I shouldn't have to think about it. As a consumer, I bought a more expensive video game system with more expensive games and it's up to Nintendo to adjust and have the software ready for the system. Increased dev costs or dev times be darned. It's a business and just because it takes longer to make games doesn't mean it's okay to not show up for your own system in a big way during arguably one of its most crucial years on the market.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

Wasn't it repeated recently that they're working on a 3DS sucessor?

I'm almost sure that wasn't my imagination. I'm just trying to think of a scenario where that would be a smart thing to do.

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on quote

Furukawa also commented on a possible successor, saying that Nintendo is "considering various possibilities."

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this is up to each person to "read" em however they want.
one could say they are making a different machine from the 3DS
other way to understand it would be would be they are waiting to see if Switch could carry on being their sole console.

the only real Factor they mention 3DS has is price (low) so it makes easy to get into. and this could easily be fixed by Switch by
a Cheaper model with less functions, like Dockless (already in Japan) or if production price goes down and NSO margins can balance it out, they could reduce the price of the whole system overall too.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

I bought a more expensive video game system with more expensive games and it's up to Nintendo to adjust and have the software ready for the system

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you see this is the type of wrong entitle attitude

You dont buy a console and then try to boss around the devs/ publisher. you buy a console cause you like what they are offering.

you dont go to an Italian restaurant and start to demand a Paella (Spain Dish) just cause you reserved a table at said restaurant

 

[Deleted member 9584]

you see this is the type of wrong entitle attitude

You dont buy a console and then try to boss around the devs/ publisher. you buy a console cause you like what they are offering.

you dont go to an Italian restaurant and start to demand a Paella (Spain Dish) just cause you reserved a table at said restaurant

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Well considering their stock price is taking big unexpected hits, I don't think my line of thinking is singular or wrong. You can't look at the peak years of 3DS and Wii U and look at their first party output (across two systems might I add and one of which roughly the same graphical capabilities and dev times), and then look at what they're offering this year and think that it's acceptable. Entitled or not, this is how it is right now.

I should also note that I'm thinking in lines of why stock prices are going down and problems with the company. As a Switch own I am very happy with the games I'm buying, alot of jrpgs and big games. But most of these are rereleases or niche and sell to someone like me. First party needed to show up in a bigger way this year to move more hardware. They should've been cleaning up the NPDs every month that wasn't GoW month.

 

[phonicjoy]

The stock price is based on the assumption they'll ship at least 20 million units. Once investors become doubtful of this assumption, they'll regard the stock as less valuable than before. This doesn't mean that investors think Nintendo's in trouble, but simply that they previously overvalued the stock (with the consequence that some investors don't think the stock is is worth keeping under their new assumptions). Switch's solid sales, their successful side projects and the potential of Nintendo's mobile offerings were already included in the previous stock prices.

Smash Bros and Pokemon are undoubtedly among the biggest releases of the year, but investors aren't convinced that two games (no matter how big) are enough to keep up Switch's momentum, especially considering Nintendo seems to be lacking big tentpole releases that could drive interest until November.

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This is exactly right. It's not about Nintendo being in trouble per sé, but more that the Q1 results had investors a little worried about the 20 million. The lack of any extra suprises to make up for lost ground was enough for some of them to adjust expectations.

 

[Deleted member 5167]

I accidentally my shares lol. I wanted to set a bottom to sell off, but the first time my order bugged, and the second time I forgot to switch it from limit order to stop loss order. Probably for the better anyway, I don't see this rally anymore anytime soon. Lesson learned, don't go long on a hype stock with a secretive board. Now I can be less cranky in this thread. But Nintendo man, what idiots.

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I kind of want to bookmark this for future schadenfreude but I'm not that petty

 

[SheriffMcDuck]

In my post I gave several reasons why they are in a good position that relates more to their future than the present.

Even if the Switch misses its 20m target for this FY it seems clear that it's going to be an overall success this year and in the future. If they sell 18-19m that gives them a respectable install base only 2 years in and points to them having a very profitable eco system for the next 3+ years.

The upcoming holidays have Mario Party, Smash, and Pokemon which are all big sellers and should move a lot of software units.

The NES/SNES Classic Mini's will sell a significant amount this holiday and are an additional revenue stream Nintendo has tapped into. They have also demonstrated they can release more of these with the variants on the Famicom mini as well as other systems like N64.

One of the biggest positives in terms of investors should be their mobile efforts. They have Mario Kart set to release this FY. It should be another big mobile release and has an opportunity to be a massive hit financially, depending on how they end up monetizing it. On top of that they have announced additional mobile titles and even more investments into mobile with a promising mobile Publshier (CyGames).

When I say Nintendonis in their best position I'm not just talking about currently but in the near future as well. With that said the drop doesn't make sense to me, especially considering the large amount in a short time frame.

Edit: they are also adding an additional revenue stream with paid online. While I know it may not be what gamers are wanting but it should be an additonal revenue stream in the future that Nintendo currently doesn't have. The fact that you need online to play games like Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon 2, Pokemon, Mario Party, etc... alone is enough to get a large portion of gamers buy in and that's not even counting the additional value of Virtual Console games.

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But that's the point, no? All of these are conceptual advantages, for now. (I'm sure Nintendo will do just fine even if they don't hit their target, we're on the same side, just playing devil's advocate and can see why people would sell.) Some people are short term investors and try to get out at the peak. Nintendo is currently at the peak of their popularity since the Wii, they've announced games that will be very successful(Smash, Party, Pokemon), and don't forget that investors are incredibly incredibly fickle. If enough people are selling off stock, others may sell off to preserve their value.

The online service is big, but the attach rate is important. None of Nintendo's games are must play online games, Splatoon 2 gave us the luxury of not having the online service yet. Smash could be big for the service, but I could see them only getting ~20-30% of owners on the service. Especially if consumers are smart and do the family plan, it could end up being a much smaller revenue jump than expected. Maybe next Fall with the Gen 8 Pokemon game, it could spike more, but I think for right now with Nintendo's focus on couch co-opable games, online is less important than other consoles.

Mobile endeavors are a great boost, but we haven't seen anything from the Kart game since the announcement in January.

Investors aren't only playing the market, they're playing each other. The stock value was almost 5 times higher after E3 than it was 5 years ago, and still had 20k yen to go to reach Wii levels. Buy low, sell high/whenever you think the company has stabilized at a profit for your specific stock situation.

 

[Alastor3]

I don't know much about stocks, aren't come and go, a bit higher sometimes a bit lower other times. What stocks even do?

 

[Pablo Mesa]

I kind of want to bookmark this for future schadenfreude but I'm not that petty

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mario been claiming the whole thread he lost his house, his wife and all his saving due to Nintendo Stocks. so maybe now he wont have to go around naked in a barrel like people during the Great Depression ? o3o??

 

[blacktout]

You know what still bothers me? The fact that this sell off started before E3, not too long after the stock value shot up in the wake of the Pokemon reveal and well before all this hand-wringing about Nintendo's lineup for the second half of the year began.

I remember at the time it was chalked up to the vitality sensor being canned (but that always seemed like a weak explanation, given the fact that it had been assumed DOA for years) or some algorithmic fluke (sure, maybe), but now it's starting to seem pretty weird and opportunistic.

 

[Pablo Mesa]

I don't know much about stocks, aren't come and go, a bit higher sometimes a bit lower other times. What stocks even do?

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on paper they represent the "thrust" of investors in a company. also the amount of outstanding stocks (stocks someone owns) x the stock price gives a rough estimate of the value of a company.
in simplified terms when you buy an stock you become an owner of tiny tiny tiny fraction of said company. you also get the right to vote in affairs of the company (although unless you own a massive amount of stock, your right is a good as nothing)

For a company, is way to get money to invest into future projects.

 

[Pekola]

They're considering options to fill the 3DS's role in the market as an affordable entry level system. This could take the form of a revised cheaper Switch in the future, increased mobile development, a new handheld entirely, or anything else, but no specific plans have been commented on.

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on quote

this is up to each person to "read" em however they want.
one could say they are making a different machine from the 3DS
other way to understand it would be would be they are waiting to see if Switch could carry on being their sole console.

the only real Factor they mention 3DS has is price (low) so it makes easy to get into. and this could easily be fixed by Switch by
a Cheaper model with less functions, like Dockless (already in Japan) or if production price goes down and NSO margins can balance it out, they could reduce the price of the whole system overall too.

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Okay, that makes more sense. They don't want to leave a hole where something like the 3DS family currently fills.

A smaller form-factor Switch that's more economical could definitely work in that sense.

 

[Skittzo]

I agree with this 100%, but if I was an investor I would get skittish because after this E3 it seems like even Nintendo isn't fully committing to Switch. The only first party game for the rest of the year is Super Mario Party. Smash and Pokémon (even though first party IP) are not internally developed. If I was financially invested in the company and I looked at this line up (and the earlier months) I would really question Nintendo's commitment to Switch as their sole gaming platform.

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Actually Super Mario Party is developed by ND Cube which is more or less the same situation as Smash and Pokemon. I think the difference is Nintendo technically owns most of ND Cube but it's still an external studio.

 

[Horror]

This isn't a real concern.

What's of concern to me - as a gamer/consumer - is the necessity on the part of Nintendo to hold their cards so close to their chest...all the time. Is there a financial/practical benefit to it?

 

[MasterChumly]

The stock price is based on the assumption they'll ship at least 20 million units. Once investors become doubtful of this assumption, they'll regard the stock as less valuable than before. This doesn't mean that investors think Nintendo's in trouble, but simply that they previously overvalued the stock (with the consequence that some investors don't think the stock is is worth keeping under their new assumptions). Switch's solid sales, their successful side projects and the potential of Nintendo's mobile offerings were already included in the previous stock prices.

Smash Bros and Pokemon are undoubtedly among the biggest releases of the year, but investors aren't convinced that two games (no matter how big) are enough to keep up Switch's momentum, especially considering Nintendo seems to be lacking big tentpole releases that could drive interest until November.

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I want to add to this post that Nintendo's P/E ratio is still very high and is absolutely NOT priced for a boring stable company. It's priced for significant growth. The moment that investors think that Nintendo isn't going to meet its agressive goals it's going to pull back significantly.