Nintendo Switch shipped 14.49 million from Apr-Dec 2018. Apr-18 to Mar-19 Forecast revised down to 17 million

Noobie · Jan 31, 2019

Code:

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch          | Q3-2018/19  | Q3-2017/18 | LTD FY2018/19 | LTD FY2017/18 | Lifetime  | FY Forecast (Orig)|
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|  9.42M(+30%)|       7.24M|    14.49M(+19%)|         12.13M|     32.27M|      17.0M (20.0)|
| Software (units)|52.51M(+109%)|      25.08M|   94.64M(+100%)|         47.10M|    163.61M|            110.0M|
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
###
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 3DS             | Q3-2018/19  | Q3-2017/18 | LTD FY2018/19 | LTD FY2017/18 | Lifetime  | FY Forecast(Orig) |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Hardware (units)|  1.31M(-56%)|        3.0M|   2.31M(-61%)|           5.86M|     74.84M|       2.6M (4.0)|
| Software (units)|  4.81M(-72%)|      17.43M|  11.08M(-65%)|          31.25M|    375.97M|             13.0M|
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190131e.pdf

Credit to ZhugeEX

VZ_Blade said:
Attachment rates
MK8D: 46.54%
SMO: 42.64%
SSBU: 37.43%
BOTW: 36.19%
LGPE: 30.99%
Splat2: 25.63%
SMP: 16.42%
12S: 8.86%
MTA: 7.84%
KSA: 7.50%

Holy shit @ software.

Financial Indicators:

Operating income: ¥158.624bn ($1.458bn) for the quarter, ¥220.029bn ($2.022bn) so far this year
Ordinary net income: ¥148.336bn ($) for the quarter, ¥240.268bn ($2.208bn) so far this year
Revenue: ¥608.390bn ($5.592bn) for the quarter, ¥997.295bn ($9.166bn) so far this year
Digital sales: ¥45bn ($413m) for the quarter, ¥84.2bn ($774m) so far this year, representing 19.6% of revenue in Q3 and 21.8% for the year.
Mobile revenue: ¥14.6bn ($134.2m) for the quarter, ¥33.3bn ($306.2m) so far this year

Credit to: hiska-kun
The legend is in Spanish, but you can guess what it means:

Switch shipments VS Wii & 3DS shipments

Switch shipments per region VS 3DS shipments per region

ASaiyan · Jan 31, 2019

Wow. They really came close to hitting that ambitious 20 million.

Atheerios · Jan 31, 2019

RIP 20 million

Zedark · Jan 31, 2019

Poor rrsults for the quarter for sure, but 17M seems a bit of an excessive downgrade? 18M should still be reasonably reachable I think.

+AshenMortality+ · Jan 31, 2019

They revised?

Samanosuke Akechi · Jan 31, 2019

Ouch. Lower than expected sales?

Still good regardless. Switch is doing great.

Deleted member 2791 · Jan 31, 2019

They couldn't reach 20 millions after sub 10M Q3 but 17M is reducing it too much. They're still going to do close to 19M.

Jurec84 · Jan 31, 2019

Jan to March is not a really strong period for them so of course they revised ...

CommodoreKong · Jan 31, 2019

20 million always seemed optimistically high but it's still a good result.

Zarckoh · Jan 31, 2019

About expected that they wouldn't reach the 20 million since it was too ambitious but still would come close.

madstarr12 · Jan 31, 2019

Smash, Pokemon and Mario Party moved hardware for sure, but not enough to make the 20 million I guess.

allan-bh · Jan 31, 2019

Called since Q1. Now it's official.

I would love to see Switch hit 20 million, but I realize it was too much.

Limabean01 · Jan 31, 2019

Well...
Software>>expectations>>hardware lol

Xaszatm · Jan 31, 2019

So, here comes the ton of Doomed comments and threads talking about Nintendo having to go third party now, huh?

Yavga · Jan 31, 2019

I wonder how investors will react

.exe · Jan 31, 2019

17m is also a lot!

Procheno · Jan 31, 2019

Software sales make up for it, but that's what they get for aiming so high with so little to show for it for half the year

Datajoy · Jan 31, 2019

There it is.

Deleted member 10737 · Jan 31, 2019

i think that's a very safe estimate, they'll go over it.

Aters · Jan 31, 2019

Expected. Some posts in the old voting thread would look very stupid now. Nintendo missed their forecast so many times I don't understand why people still don't learn. Some companies are conservative with forecasting, some are ambitious, it's just different style.

Lord Azrael · Jan 31, 2019

I steadfastly remained in the camp that said they wouldn't hit 20 million, but 17 million seems a bit excessive of a downgrade

Deleted member 3700 · Jan 31, 2019

Finally we can forget this 20 million target.

Grigorig · Jan 31, 2019

They cut the FY hardware forecast 20 -> 17m

Limabean01 · Jan 31, 2019

I mean we mostly expected it to hit or just miss the sales but now they're expecting it to miss by 3 million. That's just not realistic. it should exceed 17 million easy

NateDrake · Jan 31, 2019

mazi said:
i think that's a very safe estimate, they'll go over it.

Depends on how stuffed the channels are post-holiday. They should hit the 17m mark, regardless.

Alandring · Jan 31, 2019

As expected. I'm happy it's official now, but again: it's still a very good year for Nintendo. And 2019 will easily hit that number (25M is my forecast for FY 2019-2020).

Zedark said:
Poor rrsults for the quarter for sure, but 17M seems a bit of an excessive downgrade? 18M should still be reasonably reachable I think.

First, it will be a very slow quarter: Nintendo won't release any new game in February and Yoshi will release in late March.

Secondly, I think they don't want be to optimistic again, so they hare excessively careful.

Starphanluke · Jan 31, 2019

They'll pretty easily go over 17m.

Deleted member 37917 · Jan 31, 2019

Told you so; 18 millions was my guess from the beginning and I didn't budge. Honestly, with those 2018 and early 2019 releases, those are actually good numbers.

Delio · Jan 31, 2019

Jim_Cacher said:
Finally we can forget this 20 million target.

You say that but...

Anywho dropping it down to 17 million seems way to low.

ShinobiBk · Jan 31, 2019

madstarr12 said:
Smash, Pokemon and Mario Party moved hardware for sure, but not enough to make the 20 million I guess.

The issue was the other 3 quarters (including the one we're currently in) lacked strong hardware pushers
Q3 did it's job for the most part. They just put way too high expectations on it.

DinoPulse · Jan 31, 2019

Looking at it. It's quite incredible that it's already surpassed the Life time sales of the Nintendo 64.

Which means if they play their cards right, the Switch might surpass the lifetime sales of the Super Nintendo either close to it, by the end of this fiscal year, or surpassing it completely by the end of the next fiscal year.

I'm impressed still!

Trago · Jan 31, 2019

Killer numbers.

SinCityAssassin · Jan 31, 2019

Now they want to underestimate lol

zomgbbqftw · Jan 31, 2019

Bitch Pudding · Jan 31, 2019

RIP Nintendo, it was great while it lasted.

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TwoDelay · Jan 31, 2019

yeah 17 seems small they'll blast past that (18 seems resonable) and get some good pr instead of if they didn't make 20

Simba1 · Jan 31, 2019

Only 2.5m forecasted for Q4 seems low, I mean last year they done 3m in same time period.

Herb Alpert · Jan 31, 2019

That's a very conservative revision, they should do better than that.

Jahranimo · Jan 31, 2019

So I guess....everyone else is gonna be right then? 18-19m? The typical tactic.

Well that's still pretty good.

Deleted member 3700 · Jan 31, 2019

Delio said:
You say that but...

Anywho dropping it down to 17 million seems way to low.

I assume they are trying to be conservative this time so that they can break through it in March.

Deleted member 59 · Jan 31, 2019

They've either stuffed the channels in q3 and there's still loads of hardware floating about if they only expect to ship another 2.5m consoles in q4, or they're just playing it really safe.

rubidium · Jan 31, 2019

Sales drive force isn't only factor for unit sales forecast. Let's see Foxconn (or whoever) can keep up with the production demand.

VZ_Blade · Jan 31, 2019

Attachment rates
MK8D: 46.54%
SMO: 42.64%
SSBU: 37.43%
BOTW: 36.19%
LGPE: 30.99%
Splat2: 25.63%
SMP: 16.42%
12S: 8.86%
MTA: 7.84%
KSA: 7.50%

Holy shit @ software.

Deleted member 31092 · Jan 31, 2019

Lmao they are undertargeting so they can say they beat expectations next quarter.

Bundy · Jan 31, 2019

Zedark said:
Poor rrsults for the quarter for sure, but 17M seems a bit of an excessive downgrade? 18M should still be reasonably reachable I think.

That's how it works. Companies are always low balling. So it sounds more impressive when they reach/beat the target. 17 to 18 million is possible.

ShadowFox08 · Jan 31, 2019

Don't we have until end of March? We got 2 months. Not over yet. Not saying 5 million is a lock of course.
If Nintendo did a $50 price drop, I bet they would have reached it.

Samanosuke Akechi · Jan 31, 2019

Pack it up Nintendo. You had a good run.

mjw · Jan 31, 2019

From very ambitious target to a very low one.... lol

Oregano · Jan 31, 2019

Wow a downgrade of 3m is very disappointing and expecting less this Q4 than last year is concerning.

Also guess this confirms that PS4 sold better in 2018?

Deleted member 41183 · Jan 31, 2019

Woah, LABO Variety pack cracked 1 mil on its own.

Nintendo Switch shipped 14.49 million from Apr-Dec 2018. Apr-18 to Mar-19 Forecast revised down to 17 million

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