With this graph in mind I'm not quite sure. I mean it's the best of both worlds (handheld and stationary console) but I think the price is a bit too much to make it sell like the Wii.
One year later, betting time: will the Nintendo Switch sell over 100 million?
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With this graph in mind I'm not quite sure. I mean it's the best of both worlds (handheld and stationary console) but I think the price is a bit too much to make it sell like the Wii.
That is one old graph looking at the 3Ds number.
With this graph in mind I'm not quite sure. I mean it's the best of both worlds (handheld and stationary console) but I think the price is a bit too much to make it sell like the Wii.
People wanting to compare this to 3DS should keep in mind that 3DS peaked in its first year, which is highly unusual for any device. Be it consoles, smartphones, tablets, streaming boxes, whatever. Almost nothing peaks in its first year unless it's dead on arrival.
There's no reason to believe that 2017 was Switch's peak year.
There's no reason to believe that 2017 was Switch's peak year.
It's only $50 more than the Wii was at launch and is still selling in line with the likes of the Wii and the PS4. It'll get it's price drops like every other system to help maintain its momentum and shift more units during key times, such as the holidays
With this graph in mind I'm not quite sure. I mean it's the best of both worlds (handheld and stationary console) but I think the price is a bit too much to make it sell like the Wii.
I have news for you: it's already selling like Wii, despite the higher price point for both hardware and software.
I have more news for you: aside from having an unusually strong start, Wii's sales curve wasn't that unusual compared to its predecessors. It sold steadily better during its first three or so years, started to decline as Nintendo pivoted toward the successor, and really dropped off around Year 5-6, once Nintendo stopped releasing new titles for it.
I have even more news for you: because Nintendo Switch is the result of Nintendo's initiative to consolidate its game development environments on a single architecture shared across all their future device form factors, Nintendo Switch is less likely to have the problem where software support dries up when Nintendo pivots toward a successor.
With this graph in mind I'm not quite sure. I mean it's the best of both worlds (handheld and stationary console) but I think the price is a bit too much to make it sell like the Wii.
In today's dollars the Wii at launch would cost $305. Granted, that was with a game included. But I agree that it needs a price cut at some point, or to include a game for the same price as now. I expect that by next Black Friday.
And sadly, if you updated the Wii U numbers, you wouldn't notice a difference.
People does not understand why 3DS peaked in 2011.
This console released in March with a 250$ price, and in just 4 months had a big 80$ price drop to 170$.
This is not the case for Switch, which released at 300$/330€, and since that it never got even a single promotion. It got some super limited bundle (Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey mostly), and all were sold out at 380$.
Since there were stocks problems, price on Amazon and many others stores was also higher than that, some times reaching high numbers like close to 400$, in Japan some times even 45,000Y.
With the fact that, not only it didn't need a pricut, but also Nintendo was not able to meet the demand at those high prices, tell us how demand is still super big right now, and it won't slow down anytime soon.
If 3DS can reach 80 million, no way Switch does not beat that by a good margin.
I think so, if I'm being honest. It's clear that the Switch is extremely desirable and it can only become more popular, like with the PS4. Those who are saying 80 million are being delusional. The fact of the matter is that Nintenuhas established popular ips that has been around for decades and have clout. Additionally, Labo could very well be a hit with casuals and kids so I'm not ruling anything out.
However, I hope they don't actually reach that without updating the boring ass UI to make it more attractive. It would actually be a crime.
However, I hope they don't actually reach that without updating the boring ass UI to make it more attractive. It would actually be a crime.
Yes. If not, it'll at least be close.
I'm sure it will sell very quickly at its peak. The big question will be the system's lifespan. How long will Nintendo support it? Gamefreak's support will also be an important factor, as late-gen Pokemon titles can really improve the longevity of whatever system they're on.
Edit: rolling my eyes at the people insisting it's just being bought by Nintendo fans.
I'm sure it will sell very quickly at its peak. The big question will be the system's lifespan. How long will Nintendo support it? Gamefreak's support will also be an important factor, as late-gen Pokemon titles can really improve the longevity of whatever system they're on.
Edit: rolling my eyes at the people insisting it's just being bought by Nintendo fans.
once gamefreak's on a thing they want to stay on it as long as they can it seems. that should really help with the platform, especially as it should cross over into pokemon's 25th anniversary in the later years.
If they do go for the fabled GPU Dock, I expect to be 4-5 years. or 1 year after PS5 releases. I guess they are waiting till teh next gen Chips price goes down too
Nintendo sold like 250m systems during the Wi/DS generation. So 100m for the Switch family is the least we can expect at this point, without knowing how agreesive the upgrade plan will be or what kind of revisions to expect.
Doubt they will have much issues selling +20m Switch units per year once they reach the 199$ price point.
Hell even 3DS is still selling even though its quite outdated. Switch will def. outsell the Wii.
No idea what you are talking about. We wont see witch reach its full sales potential before 2019 when they reach 200 bucks.
Doubt they will have much issues selling +20m Switch units per year once they reach the 199$ price point.
Hell even 3DS is still selling even though its quite outdated. Switch will def. outsell the Wii.
Its outperforming the 3DS while being twice as expensive. Not even mentioning that the software is outpacing the 3DS by alot even though the price per copy increased.
No idea what you are talking about. We wont see witch reach its full sales potential before 2019 when they reach 200 bucks.
3DS is 60 or 70+ isn't it that graphic is wrong
With this graph in mind I'm not quite sure. I mean it's the best of both worlds (handheld and stationary console) but I think the price is a bit too much to make it sell like the Wii.
Sure.
But to get to 100 million, Nintendo will need to keep a constant stream of games coming to the console. I can definitely see this being the best selling Nintendo console since the Wii.
But to get to 100 million, Nintendo will need to keep a constant stream of games coming to the console. I can definitely see this being the best selling Nintendo console since the Wii.
Yup, I'm certainly expecting them to stick around. They like mature hardware that's reached a low, kid friendly price.
Actually, that's an important consideration for the switch's lifespan. Nintendo has always had two products at different price ranges, their consoles and handhelds, and the switch is decidedly NOT in that handheld range. The 3DS is currently filling that role, but when it dies they'll have nothing in that $100-$175 sweet spot that's so important for the child audience. I don't think a "switch portable" or a "switch TV" would be able to cut much off the price. So I wonder if they'll try to keep the switch alive longer than usual, trying to get it way down in price, even after the Switch 2 comes out.
I think so, it and the PS4 will both top out at around a 110m is my guess.
Pokemon alone (assuming it keeps a similar release schedule of a new gen every few years + a remake inbetween) will probably get it close.
Pokemon alone (assuming it keeps a similar release schedule of a new gen every few years + a remake inbetween) will probably get it close.
It better. And it should, assuming Nintendo goes all in on it and doesn't decide to do another (non Switch compatible) handheld. Or get too heavily into gimmicky stuff.
But Nintendo screwed up the Wii, which should've topped out above 150m. So we'll see.
But Nintendo screwed up the Wii, which should've topped out above 150m. So we'll see.
really depends on redesigns. if they release a more powerful switch x type of thing or a more affordable switch mini it could further boost sales
Seems like most people who thinks its not possible are just going of the thought that it wont outsell the PS4 and the PS4 ceiling is 100m (for some reason).
Thats not how it works - once the price drops we will see families who will justify to own multiple systems. It doesnt really matter what MS and Sony do as long as Nintendo delivers. People called the 3DS "dead" years ago....we are in 2018 and its still selling. Switch is selling at a record pace yet, the ceiling are 3DS numbers
Thats not how it works - once the price drops we will see families who will justify to own multiple systems. It doesnt really matter what MS and Sony do as long as Nintendo delivers. People called the 3DS "dead" years ago....we are in 2018 and its still selling. Switch is selling at a record pace yet, the ceiling are 3DS numbers
I guess I understand 100M being a pretty high number conceptually, but didn't we just get the news that the Switch is the fastest selling console ever over the first 10 months? Which will likely also be true over 12 months?
I know launch periods being different makes it a tough comparison, but the fact that it will be hanging around the level of the Wii after its second holiday season is pretty stunning.
Luckily no successful console has ever peaked in its first year. Usually years 3 and 4 are the peaks, so Switch will not have to sell for 6 years if it sells upwards of 20 to 30 million in each of the next few years.
I know launch periods being different makes it a tough comparison, but the fact that it will be hanging around the level of the Wii after its second holiday season is pretty stunning.
Luckily no successful console has ever peaked in its first year. Usually years 3 and 4 are the peaks, so Switch will not have to sell for 6 years if it sells upwards of 20 to 30 million in each of the next few years.
Back before launch, I was predicting N64 to NES level, which I believe is 35m to 60m. I've had to revise my expectations significantly up. Now I'm thinking PS3 to Wii level. It might barely reach 100m but it won't break it by much IMO. Long term, I don't see much of a reason for it to do better than Wii as it lacks the public mindshare Wii had.
You could very well be right but it's going to sell over 15m in its first year while being completely sold out in its second most major territory, and sold out for half of the year basically everywhere else.
Once it has Pokemon and a price cut? 30m is extremely achievable. By no means is it guaranteed of course or even likely, but I would definitely call it a realistic possibility.
I can see a Pokemon boost. 100 million isn't out of the question, but 30 million in a year would be nuts.