I mean:
- P3R is already out.
- P1/P2 are rumored to be remasters, not full blown remakes
So...yes lol. P1/P2, if the same gameplay is retained (some of has not aged well), absolutely wont do nearly as well as a full blown P4 Remake.
I'd agree with that statement.
If we're talking about the core fanbase, it could be a toss up between P1/P2/P4, but if we talk about overall sales, it's more likely that P4 remake would sell more of P1/P2 remaster, because of how wildly different they are from P3/P4/P5, and what the average player that increased their sale would expect from a Persona game.
Given how successful P3R is, I think it's quite possible that they'd focus on a similar path for a P4R: use the base of P6 to remake the game without adding really much.
I'd like to hope they won't release the Golden content separately, as well as not repeating the whole P5/P5R situation, but it's Atlus, so it's better to expect them to do so.
I feel like we won't have an idea of how much of a cap there is for traditional JRPGs until Persona stagnates commercially. If P6 is good and it only does around P5 numbers, than we'd have a general idea for how large the audience is.
It'll also depend on the platforms where it'll be released. The expectations should be quite different if it'll be released exclusively on PS5 (which is very unlikely to happen at this point, but you never know), compared to a PS5/Series X/S and PC release, or one where it'll be released day on on Switch 2 as well.