Oh, I don't expect a big blowout if they choose to present a new IP, a little teaser at most. I also think that the goal for PS5 was to make development cycles shorter, so I wouldn't be surprised if new games are closer than we think they are :)
Indeed I hope the benefits of the PS5 platform will allow games to come out notably faster.
Going by the info Jason provided it seems that pre-production for Naughty Dogs next big title didn't start until after TLOU2 finished. I suppose we don't know if they're out of pre-production and are in the production phase now. They've got Factions 2, TLOU Remake and probably a PS5 version of TLOU2 they're working on so even if the next big game is in production right now not all of their staff would be focused on it yet.
I would think the only thing they might be able to show this year for the next big game is a target render. It'd be something to wet our appetites and keep in the back of our minds at least.