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Potential tornado outbreak looking likely in the Oklahoma and southern Kansas areas, all users in the area should remain weather aware, rare High risk

Tony72495

Tony72495

Banned
Apr 26, 2019
359
CY3huFZ.png


There is currently a Tornado watch and Thunderstorm watch for parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and northern Kansas.

The "main" event, if you will, is expected to start past 4 to 5 in southern Kansas and Oklahoma, we will likely see a Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado watch issued for that.

The parameters today are pretty much off the scale, Jim Cantore posted this to his Twitter, and for comparison, this scale generally stops at 10, nearly 99.9% of the time, and even a 5-8 is considered pretty significant. It not only hitting 11-12 but also 20+ and even hitting 28-29 at one part is pretty remarkable.

View: https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1787402007222874328

We can all hope it's just overblown, but it's good to be aware for whatever might happen.
 
JaseMath

JaseMath

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,526
Denver, CO
Tony72495 said:
CY3huFZ.png


There is currently a Tornado watch and Thunderstorm watch for parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and northern Kansas.

The "main" event, if you will, is expected to start past 4 to 5 in southern Kansas and Oklahoma, we will likely see a Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado watch issued for that.

The parameters today are pretty much off the scale, Jim Cantore posted this to his Twitter, and for comparison, this scale generally stops at 10, nearly 99.9% of the time, and even a 5-8 is considered pretty significant. It not only hitting 11-12 but also 20+ and even hitting 28-29 at one part is pretty remarkable.

View: https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1787402007222874328

We can all hope it's just overblown, but it's good to be aware for whatever might happen.
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This is frightening; those numbers are absolutely crazy. Be careful, folks!
 
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Tony72495

Tony72495

Banned
Apr 26, 2019
359
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,197
There is a 25 popping up right over Oklahoma City in that model run. Dangerous could be an understatement if it centers on the metro area.
 
Maquiladora

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,165
Tony72495 said:
Probabilities:

>95% for at least 2 tornadoes
90% for at least 1 significant tornado
70% for at least 10 >60 mph wind events
60% for at least 1 >75mph wind event
80% for at least 10 >1 inch hail events
80% for at least 1 >2 inch hail event

Very high tornado probabilities
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Yeah it's not going to be a bust day today.
 
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Tony72495

Tony72495

Banned
Apr 26, 2019
359
maabus1999 said:
There is a 25 popping up right over Oklahoma City in that model run. Dangerous could be an understatement if it centers on the metro area.
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One thing to note is sometimes the HRRR model goes a bit....odd with STP. The NAM model maxes out closer to 9/9.5 which makes sense given that STP is supposed to be a 0 to 10 scale.
 
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Tony72495

Tony72495

Banned
Apr 26, 2019
359
New info from Ryan Hall's stream: apparently some Waffle House locations have chosen to close ahead of the PDS tornado watch.

So I think Oklahoma is about to be wiped off the face of the Earth or something.

In all seriousness though that's kind of wild, the Waffle House scale is actually kind of a thing used by the weather industry, mainly for hurricanes.
 
Zaphod

Zaphod

Member
Aug 21, 2019
1,149
I live in the city and the storms usually divert south of town. Hopefully that will be the case again today.
 
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Tony72495

Tony72495

Banned
Apr 26, 2019
359
Zaphod said:
I live in the city and the storms usually divert south of town. Hopefully that will be the case again today.
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There's actually kind of a known history of tornadoes missing big cities, it's not understood if there is physically anything to do with the presence of so many buildings and skyscrapers in a small area, if that actually affects things, but tornadoes do still happen.
 
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Tony72495

Tony72495

Banned
Apr 26, 2019
359
delete12345 said:
We have a 25 SigTor value. What does this mean?

The scale only reaches from 0 to 10. A 25 is pretty huge.

6tQKzNK.png
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Technically so far off the scale as to be basically incomprehensible. Though sometimes the HRRR goes a little crazy with STP values, I think the NAM is still very high in the 9 range.

Theoretically a true 24 STP event would be like some EF6 The Day After Tomorrow shit if the SPC also used it as a marker.
 
Squarehard

Squarehard

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,219
Crazy how it keeps spreading out.

It looked like an avocado shaped area yesterday, today it's like amoeba shaped and even further out.

Stay safe out there all.
 
Jakenbakin

Jakenbakin

"This guy are sick" and Corrupted by Vengeance
Member
Jun 17, 2018
12,023
I still have like 3 trees that fell down in storms last year, just add to the bullshit that is my yard storm. I was supposed to be running errands tonight with my kid and seeing my brother before he moves but uhh we've postponed. Stay safe people!
 
Sabot

Sabot

Saw the truth behind the copied door
Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,989
It looks about as perfect as it ever can be in OKC right now which means it's gonna be bad lmao.
 
Carcosan Stag

Carcosan Stag

AVALANCHE
Member
Oct 25, 2017
937
R'lyeh
I'm right in central Oklahoma in the epicenter of all this shit coming today. Hoping for the best this evening for my partner, myself and our fur baby. Got parents down south as well dealing with crap coming too.. really hoping this blows over without incident.
 
scitek

scitek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,207
I once wrote a weather tease for a meteorologist with "high risk" in the copy not knowing that was an actual warning status, and he stressed to me how that term is only used in an extremely serious situation. I can't recall ever seeing it myself, so I assume it's rare. Regardless, stay safe, everyone.
 
Zaphod

Zaphod

Member
Aug 21, 2019
1,149
Tony72495 said:
There's actually kind of a known history of tornadoes missing big cities, it's not understood if there is physically anything to do with the presence of so many buildings and skyscrapers in a small area, if that actually affects things, but tornadoes do still happen.
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I'm fond of the heat bubble idea that the cities absorb heat during the day and radiate it back out messing with storms, but it could also just be statistics since there are more small towns than cities.

I'll be keeping an eye out though. My house just made it through 100 years in tornado alley, so hopefully it can do another 100.
 
Culex

Culex

Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,985
Fort Worth Texas got whacked years ago as a tornado went right down the center of the city. My dad was there in a hotel as it was going down.

It's rare but does happen!
 
fluffydelusions

fluffydelusions

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,560
I live in an area that doesn't get any kind of storms...I can literally count on one hand the amount of times I've heard thunder in all the years I've been here. Love watching storm chasers whether it be for tornados or hurricanes...nature can be so impressive and scary. Stay safe out there.
 
LetsEatSnacks

LetsEatSnacks

Member
Oct 18, 2020
1,861
United States
Just a side note here because it has been on my mind:

My husband works for the National Weather Service and it's absolutely amazing/ insane how many right wing nuts hate their organization. When there are storm outbreaks like this or major storm systems coming through the area and they don't end up doing damage or as bad as they could be, a huge portion of the comments on their social media posts are just spiteful. "You hyped this storm up again, what a waste of our taxpayer money" is a pretty good distillation of what they get on a daily basis. When it's on Facebook or Twitter, I can guarantee when you click on their profile, there is almost always either an American flag, Trump related posts, or some Christian values BS.

Sorry, maybe the wrong thread to vent but if these tornadoes don't really show up or do damage, I recommend (or don't) checking out the response to their pages. It's baffling.
 
Akileese

Akileese

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,719
Culex said:
Fort Worth Texas got whacked years ago as a tornado went right down the center of the city. My dad was there in a hotel as it was going down.

It's rare but does happen!
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It's very rare for DFW because of the cap, which is a layer of warm air that blocks rising rising air. That's the reason our warnings are 'low' tonight. It does tend to protect DFW from serious storms more often than not.

This is looking pretty bad. Hopefully it ends up a bust, but I don't think it will.
 
Davidion

Davidion

Charitable King
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,273
LetsEatSnacks said:
Just a side note here because it has been on my mind:

My husband works for the National Weather Service and it's absolutely amazing/ insane how many right wing nuts hate their organization. When there are storm outbreaks like this or major storm systems coming through the area and they don't end up doing damage or as bad as they could be, a huge portion of the comments on their social media posts are just spiteful. "You hyped this storm up again, what a waste of our taxpayer money" is a pretty good distillation of what they get on a daily basis. When it's on Facebook or Twitter, I can guarantee when you click on their profile, there is almost always either an American flag, Trump related posts, or some Christian values BS.

Sorry, maybe the wrong thread to vent but if these tornadoes don't really show up or do damage, I recommend (or don't) checking out the response to their pages. It's baffling.
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Chimps are gonna act up during bad weather.
 
wallmeat

wallmeat

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,277
I'm in southeast Kansas and a lot of stuff has shut down for today, evening events canceled, etc. I actually got sent home from work at noon partially because of weather concerns for later in the day.

Really hope it's not that bad for any of us. Be safe if you're in any of the affected areas!
 
JaseMath

JaseMath

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,526
Denver, CO
Tony72495 said:
Technically so far off the scale as to be basically incomprehensible. Though sometimes the HRRR goes a little crazy with STP values, I think the NAM is still very high in the 9 range.

Theoretically a true 24 STP event would be like some EF6 The Day After Tomorrow shit if the SPC also used it as a marker.
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Climate change in 2024 is out-apocalypsing an apocalypse movie by Roland Emerich. Be safe, everyone!
 
Maquiladora

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,165
scitek said:
I once wrote a weather tease for a meteorologist with "high risk" in the copy not knowing that was an actual warning status, and he stressed to me how that term is only used in an extremely serious situation. I can't recall ever seeing it myself, so I assume it's rare. Regardless, stay safe, everyone.
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This is only the sixth High Risk day in the past 7 years. Some years have zero High Risk days. Pretty much every High Risk day leads to a dedicated Wikipedia page about an eventual Tornado Outbreak.
 
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