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Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,437
Which one is it? Q2 should sell more than last year with Q3 blowing it out of the water.
What big releases are happening in Q2 btw?

and how much did Switch did do last Q2?

I guess it might be up just from all the games cumulatively adding up, but there's no major game right?
maybe fortnite.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
I think 20 mill is probably not happening though. 1.88 m isn't terrible by any means, but to have a 20 mill year you generally need to be in top form or close every quarter.

Either that or Nintendo is gonna have to price cut for the holidays, which I doubt they would do.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
What big releases are happening in Q2 btw?

and how much did Switch did do last Q2?

I guess it might be up just from all the games cumulatively adding up, but there's no major game right?
maybe fortnite.
They did 3 million in Q2 2017 with big sofware movers (even Japan hand some big weeks).

I expect Q2 to be down too unless NPD July shows some big increase in sales.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
A tad low on the HW side, was expecting over 2M. But the software sales are insane.

Still expecting a huge holiday for the Switch so I wouldnt rule out 20M just yet. Surely they expect 10M+ units sold October-December with the success continuing the first months of next year.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
What big releases are happening in Q2 btw?

and how much did Switch did do last Q2?
from my Biased perspective, this Q2 release: Octopath Traveler, Captain Toad, Monster Hunter GU, Xenoblade 2: Golden Country, FIFA 19, Dragoball FighterZ, Valkyria Chronicles 4, The World Ends With You

Last Q2 Switch Shipped units were 2.9M
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783
If Nintendo meets their 20m HW target I expect a lot of "no one could have expected Pokémon and Smash to drive sales so much", even after months of people repeating that Pokémon is the biggest IP in gaming.
 

unicornKnight

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,217
Athens, Greece
HW drop understandable, Kirby, DK, Labo aren't Mario Odyssey, MK, Splatoon or Zelda. The software numbers are great though, maybe 100 millions is doable.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,918
Netherlands
A drop in HW sales is disappointing, but reflective of the drought I guess. Hoping they can turn the tide with Fortnite, Pokemon and Smash, though 20M seems pretty far off. Labo is doing surprisingly decent on the other hand. That is, I predicted 20M across all SKUs by next year, which was way too optimistic, but 10M should still be doable.
 

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
Good numbers in any case especially because April and May were very slow in terms of releases, from June they are much stronger.
 

zomgbbqftw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
331
London, UK
As of right now, Nintendo still included only both retail and digital sales of packaged software.
No, that doesn't make sense. In the supplementary information they say Nintendo first party titles account for 83% of all titles sold, if that's the case then of the 17.96m almost 15m would have to come from first party sales. Someone else did the count earlier and it looked closer to 8m for first party switch software sales. The wording is also very vague, "Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software" downloadable versions could mean anything, not specifically only the downloadable version of packaged software. For the software sales figure to make sense Nintendo have got to be including all types of software sales, the numbers don't add up otherwise.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
you think October to December will be down too but Jan to March will be up?
Yes, because last year Super Mario Odyssey released in October and this year Super Smash Bros. Ultimate will only launch in December.

I think hardware sales will be down in October and November, up in December (but not enough to do better in Q3 than in 2017) and up in Q4 (at least in January).

I think Smash launch too late for changing everything in Q3, but it will probably help Q4 hardware sales.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783
Yes, because last year Super Mario Odyssey released in October and this year Super Smash Bros. Ultimate will only launch in December.

I think hardware sales will be down in October and November, up in December (but not enough to do better in Q3 than in 2017) and up in Q4 (at least in January).

I think Smash launch too late for changing everything in Q3, but it will probably help Q4 hardware sales.

Did you forget Pokémon in November?
 

Arkert

Member
Oct 28, 2017
246
No, that doesn't make sense. In the supplementary information they say Nintendo first party titles account for 83% of all titles sold, if that's the case then of the 17.96m almost 15m would have to come from first party sales. Someone else did the count earlier and it looked closer to 8m for first party switch software sales. The wording is also very vague, "Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software" downloadable versions could mean anything, not specifically only the downloadable version of packaged software. For the software sales figure to make sense Nintendo have got to be including all types of software sales, the numbers don't add up otherwise.
He's correct. Nintendo doesn't count download only titles

3.
Software sales units for each platform are those of card or disk software (packaged and downloadable versions).
 
Apr 21, 2018
6,969
Really surprised at the Kirby numbers. In so few months it is one of the best selling Kirby games yet. All these franchises are going to hit record highs on Switch. Excited to see what Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta sell.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
So they're banking on shipping 18.12 million Switch units in the next 3 quarters? I really don't see it.

The Wii for example sold 3.43 in Q1 of its second year and then 15.18 mill for the next three quarters to end the fiscal year with 18.61m I believe.

I don't understand why Nintendo makes such outlandish sales predictions.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
No, that doesn't make sense. In the supplementary information they say Nintendo first party titles account for 83% of all titles sold, if that's the case then of the 17.96m almost 15m would have to come from first party sales. Someone else did the count earlier and it looked closer to 8m for first party switch software sales. The wording is also very vague, "Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software" downloadable versions could mean anything, not specifically only the downloadable version of packaged software. For the software sales figure to make sense Nintendo have got to be including all types of software sales, the numbers don't add up otherwise.
What games it was used to reach these 8 million count? Nintendo publish a lot of titles and you need to count old titles sales too.

83% includes 3DS, WiiU, etc.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
So they're banking on shipping 18.12 million Switch units in the next 3 quarters? I really don't see it.

The Wii for example sold 3.43 in Q1 of its second year and then 15.18 mill for the next three quarters to end the fiscal year with 18.61m I believe.

I don't understand why Nintendo makes such outlandish sales predictions.

NSMBU Deluxe, baby.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
No, that doesn't make sense. In the supplementary information they say Nintendo first party titles account for 83% of all titles sold, if that's the case then of the 17.96m almost 15m would have to come from first party sales. Someone else did the count earlier and it looked closer to 8m for first party switch software sales. The wording is also very vague, "Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software" downloadable versions could mean anything, not specifically only the downloadable version of packaged software. For the software sales figure to make sense Nintendo have got to be including all types of software sales, the numbers don't add up otherwise.
I'm pretty sure that 83% is for all platforms.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
Yes, because last year Super Mario Odyssey released in October and this year Super Smash Bros. Ultimate will only launch in December.

I think hardware sales will be down in October and November, up in December (but not enough to do better in Q3 than in 2017) and up in Q4 (at least in January).

I think Smash launch too late for changing everything in Q3, but it will probably help Q4 hardware sales.

Super Mario Party and Pokemon are still Q3. Also there were major shortages in Q3 2017. I'd be surprised if they were not up in Q3 2018.
 

FiXalaS

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,569
Kuwait.
Pokémon never released on a $300 console, what's the point of such question.

You sound so sure that Pokemon the biggest IP in gaming will do the job =)

a good point with this pokemon game (for parents) is that it has coop, so both of your kids can play together with only one game and console :P
this is something else to think about

(also... fully compatible with GO!)

so parents won't even need to buy 2 switches, just one switch would be enough
 

MONSTER

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,522
I'd like to see what Nintendo's definition of "software" is. Sony only includes "full games" in their definition, I'm pretty sure that means it excludes a lot of the indie shovelware. I'd be interested to see if a $2 indie shovelware game counts the same to shipments as a $60 first party title. I'm pretty sure that it does count that way for Nintendo, but it would be interesting to get clarification.

A game is a game
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,918
Netherlands
So they're banking on shipping 18.12 million Switch units in the next 3 quarters? I really don't see it.

The Wii for example sold 3.43 in Q1 of its second year and then 15.18 mill for the next three quarters to end the fiscal year with 18.61m I believe.

I don't understand why Nintendo makes such outlandish sales predictions.
That was Wii's second fiscal year, not its second year. Second year it sold well past 20M.
20M was never outlandish. It actually felt very realistic until there turned out to be "nothing" for the first three months.
 

TwoDelay

Member
Apr 6, 2018
1,326
Yes, because last year Super Mario Odyssey released in October and this year Super Smash Bros. Ultimate will only launch in December.

I think hardware sales will be down in October and November, up in December (but not enough to do better in Q3 than in 2017) and up in Q4 (at least in January).

I think Smash launch too late for changing everything in Q3, but it will probably help Q4 hardware sales.
Odyssey came out the last week of oct and this year has God damn Pokemon right before black Friday. December is also Nintendo's biggest month ( IIRC dec 2017 was 3 mil) and smash is coming first week.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
So they're banking on shipping 18.12 million Switch units in the next 3 quarters? I really don't see it.
why not, they moved 10M unit last Q3+Q4 all driven by basically only 1 game since October (Mario: O)

this year they have for the same time frame, Mario Party, Pokemon LG, Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi Yarn (maybe),
 

ArchedThunder

Uncle Beerus
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,097
Amazing quarter for software, hardware being slightly down is kinda surprising, but shouldn't matter too much as long as the other 3 quarters pick up the slack.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
That was Wii's second fiscal year, not its second year. Second year it sold well past 20M.
20M was never outlandish. It actually felt very realistic until there turned out to be "nothing" for the first three months.

It's pretty outlandish IMO that they continue to stick by it.

Assuming the next quarter for the Switch is in the 3 mill neighborhood, that means Q3 + Q4 are gonna have to be pretty darn close to *peak* Wii type sales to get to 20 million.

That's asking *a lot* of two games in Pokemon Lets Go and Smash.