Remember when Splatoon was supposed to fail?

[Gold Arsene]

Anyone remember all the people who thought Splatoon was going to bomb?

You even had some people thinking it would do about as well or worse the The Wonderfull 101.

What are some of the biggest miss calls you've ever seen looking back?

 

[Sandfox]

The Switch is an obvious one.

 

[0MAR10]

Mario Kart 8 and polygon lmao. Whoever has that chart please post it. They estimated it wouldn't sell even half (3 million) at the time i believe . And look at it now. A juggernaut.

 

[Strings]

This sort of thinking swings both ways. Like, you can go back and read all the posters convinced that Labo is going to annihilate the market because the trailer has a ton of views.

 

[Pillock]

I didn't think Fornite would really go anywhere.

 

[DecoReturns]

I really don't look back at miss calls.

I've made some predictions that were way off. It happens. Tho I'm not hyperbolic when it comes to stating my prediction.

 

[NippleViking]

I might be misremembering, but I don't really remember people expecting Splatoon to fail. Conversely, I recall it receiving heaps of praise the E3 it was revealed, with people consistently saying that it was one of the freshest IP of the generation, that they finally designed a game that meaningfully incorporated the gamepad, that despite all the other games on the floor the press wanted more time with Splatoon, etc.

No one anticipated it would be as big a hit as it was, but I don't remember a lot of "this will bomb".

Recently, Apex legends fits the bill tho. As soon as it was leaked that Respawn were working on a hero-shooter BR in the Titanfall universe (and likely not another mainline Tf game) there was a lot of shit-slinging.

 

[MrCarter]

Monster Hunter World lmao.

 

[Noppie]

This sort of thinking swings both ways. Like, you can go back and read all the posters convinced that Labo is going to annihilate the market because the trailer has a ton of views.

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There weren't alot of those, some were optimistic about it's succes and it still did sell over a million. The nay-sayers were way more franctic about Labo.

I might be misremembering, but I don't really remember people expecting Splatoon to fail. Conversely, I recall it receiving heaps of praise the E3 it was revealed, with people consistently saying that it was one of the freshest IP of the generation, that they finally designed a game that meaningfully incorporated the gamepad, that despite all the other games on the floor the press wanted more time with Splatoon, etc.

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People were expecting W101 level of sales in the old place.

Alot of Switch comes to mind. 1-2 Switch, Arms, Labo, Switch itself. Before the system released, pessimism was apparent online.

 

[Evil Lucario]

This sort of thinking swings both ways. Like, you can go back and read all the posters convinced that Labo is going to annihilate the market because the trailer has a ton of views.

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This tbh. As humans we're petty and only really remember the times we were right. But eh, whatever.

 

[HardRojo]

I predicted the Switch to do as well as the 3DS. Remains to be seen, but I'll never back down from claiming its actual reveal was very lackluster.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

what revisionist confirmation bias bullshit is this? There was never significant amounts of people saying Splatoon would fail. Stop limiting your scope to what a handful of posters said on some game forum.

 

[Chie Satonaka91]

I remember the the read on the old site about Splatoon being a huge bomb, seemed silly to me. I figured the game would be a moderate success. I was pleased to see it become the Juggernaut franchise it is now.

 

[Deleted member 10737]

it is funny, but hindsight is 20 20.
i've made many terrible predictions too (i thought MHW was going to fail then it becomes the biggest selling capcom game ever), so it's not really any use to laugh at other people's failed predictions.

 

[NippleViking]

People were expecting W101 level of sales in the old place.

Alot of Switch comes to mind. 1-2 Switch, Arms, Labo, Switch itself. Before the system released, pessimism was apparent online.

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Ah yeah, you're right. Hopefully I'm allowed to link to the old site

I probably conflated all the praise it received from critics.

 

[requiem]

Splatoon isn't a very good example. It was just a few people taking the opportunity to shit on the Wii U.

I don't know if this was a popular opinion at the time, but I thought the Vita would at least be a modest success and hold sales pace with the 3DS.

 

[ClickyCal']

Yep, still waiting for it to flop, just like horizon.

 

[foxuzamaki]

I think splatoon failing was only forum goers saying, everyone from a mile a way can see how successful the game was going to be, it was a pretty big showing at its debut booth

 

[Error 52]

Eh, not really. Nobody was expecting it to become a juggernaut but outside of NeoGAF shitposting I think most people were just kinda going "Seems neat I dunno"

Mario Kart 8 and polygon lmao. Whoever has that chart please post it. They estimated it wouldn't sell even half (3 million) at the time i believe . And look at it now. A juggernaut.

Click to shrink...

To be fair to Polygon, g r a p h aside their logic was fairly sound - it took a lot of aggressive deals (buy this game and get another completely free!) and being a really good entry in general to make it really sell.

 

[Trisc]

I was really worried about Resident Evil 7, given how well Resident Evil 6 sold in spite of critical reception. I'd seen the same thing happen with Assassin's Creed 4 following Assassin's Creed 3, where AC3 sold extremely well and was given an overall "meh" response from critics, while AC4 was praised by critics for its innovative naval elements, and suffered greatly in terms of sales.

In a sense, you expect the sequel to the well-performing, badly-received game to do poorly. But Resident Evil 7 had just the right amount of time following RE6 to rid the stink of that game and get fans excited for a return to form. Combine that with really excellent viral marketing and being one of the first big games of 2017, and in hindsight, RE7's success seems obvious.

 

[JustJavi]

Ah yeah, you're right. Hopefully I'm allowed to link to the old site

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Good old memories. Word on the street sayes the population of crows decreased massively after Splatoon came out.

 

[Sandfox]

PS Classic(until we got the games) and Vita TV are big ones as well. I personally thought the latter was going to be huge.

Eh, not really. Nobody was expecting it to become a juggernaut but outside of NeoGAF shitposting I think most people were just kinda going "Seems neat I dunno"


To be fair to Polygon, g r a p h aside their logic was fairly sound - it took a lot of aggressive deals (buy this game and get another completely free!) and being a really good entry in general to make it really sell.

Click to shrink...

Polygon said that MK8 would sell 1.99 million by the end of March 2015 and it ended up topping that within the first month.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I remember when I was promised a man drinking his own piss.

 

[Interficium]

Gaf/Era have always had a terrible track record when it comes to sales projections of any kind generally because it's users have a very myopic perspective of the industry as a whole (colloquially referred to as the "Era Bubble" or similar), and have a hard time believing any product could be successful despite lack of positive consensus on the forum.

This leads to hilarious meltdowns like people being incredulous that something like Splatoon or, even more shockingly, Ghost Recon Wildlands could be sales successes despite there being "no hype" on the forum.

 

[Error 52]

PS Classic(until we got the games) and Vita TV are big ones as well. I personally thought the latter was going to be huge.


Polygon said that MK8 would sell 1.99 million by the end of March 2015 and it ended up topping that within the first month.

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Oh yeah, they were wrong as fuck but you could at least see where they were coming from. If it was a so-so game like 7 was and Nintendo didn't push it like they did, they probably would've been right.

 

[The Adder]

I remember calling the success of both Splatoon and the Switch

 

[Lord Vatek]

I remember thinking ARMS was going to be a breakout cornerstone IP like Splatoon. It was a success but nothing like I was thinking.

 

[plebc]

Not sure if many know this, but Splatoon wasn't a full priced game in Europe.

Regular price was £34.99 or £31.49 (10% off) if you have downloaded the Global Testfire while it was $60 in the US. I'm not sure what was the price in Japan because it ended up being really popular.

 

[Jave]

I clearly remember several people on the old site claiming Splatoon was going to fail. I even remember the infamous "I'll drink my own urine" post.

I also remember several people claiming after the fact "Well of course it was successful, there's nothing else to play on the Wii U!"

 

[Barry Sandwich]

How is the Switch doing sales wise? I feel like it's lost some momentum in comparison to the Wii and DS, it hasn't quite crossed over into mainstream appeal the way they did.

 

[Sandfox]

How is the Switch doing sales wise? I feel like it's lost some momentum in comparison to the Wii and DS, it hasn't quite crossed over into mainstream appeal the way they did.

Click to shrink...

No console is ever going to sell like that again.

 

[Igorth]

I didn't think Fornite would really go anywhere.

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Fortnite's main mode is not going anywhere actually, Epic was saved by the free BR mode.

 

[Troll]

I absolutely underestimated how well Spider-Man would sell. Insomniac deserves it too.

 

[Stairouais]

Still eating crows to that day.

 

[I Wanna Be The Guy]

There weren't alot of those, some were optimistic about it's succes and it still did sell over a million. The nay-sayers were way more franctic about Labo.

People were expecting W101 level of sales in the old place.

Alot of Switch comes to mind. 1-2 Switch, Arms, Labo, Switch itself. Before the system released, pessimism was apparent online.

Click to shrink...

Go back and revisit the announcement thread. The vast majority were claiming Labo to be a big hit. People that didn't think so were shouted down.

 

[nicolasacmf]

I remember back in the old place when people were sure the Switch would fail after the January 2017 Presentation. A LOT of people in the old place were calling it - "It" in this case being both the Switch and the presentation - a disaster, which, even back then was a ridiculous sentiment. Despite all of the mishaps that happened during the event, it was still a good show, one that brought good games and signaled a bright future for the Switch.

 

[MasterChumly]

Meh it goes both ways. People think things will be hits and bombs all the time. Same thing happened with labo. People were completely convinced it was going to be a hit. No need to make a thread to go lol what dumbasses

 

[mutantmagnet]

The Switch is an obvious one.

Click to shrink...

In what reality? I would say the number of people who thought the Switch was going to be a monster like the Wii wasn't even outnumbered 2 to 1 on this forum. The number of people who thought the Switch would be a success was far from insignificant unlike the OP's example of Splatoon where derision was overwhelming.

 

[Kivvi]

Gonna be honest, I thought the Switch wouldn't sell because of the price tag. But that's completely my fault and I was in the wrong (thankfully).
This is my theory on Splatoon but people predicted doom for it more because they weren't interested in to the new IP than anything else. The among of young teen playing is unbelievable (and great!), But I have a hard time finding people over 20 to play with. Those are my observations since I have started play this game last fall. I wonder why older fans haven't gotten into the game more, it's a thing I've been thinking about it alot.
Labo is a similar experience. It main market are younger kids, Era thought (their) kids as did Nintendo would became a big hit but it didn't. It's hard to predict if you aren't the targeted group imo.
But it's fun that's why we're doing it.

 

[Oregano]

Splatoon isn't a very good example. It was just a few people taking the opportunity to shit on the Wii U.

I don't know if this was a popular opinion at the time, but I thought the Vita would at least be a modest success and hold sales pace with the 3DS.

Click to shrink...

Pre-release a lot of people thought the Vita was going to steamroll the 3DS, and the internet went absolutely mental for its $250 price point considering it could do "actual PS3 graphics".

People will tell you that all changed when the 3DS got its price cut but I don't think that's quite true. The bigger thing was TGS 2011 where Monster Hunter was announced for 3DS and there was a distinct lack of major titles for Vita.

 

[Handicapped Duck]

No console is ever going to sell like that again.

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Isn't the PS4 well on it's way to 100 million sold? By the end of production, it has a chance to sell just under 110 million which would match the Wii I believe.

I didn't think RE:2 Remake was going to do as well as it has. Game is selling well beyond my expectations.

 

[Aftermath]

I liked it as soon as I saw it, cos I grew up in the 90's and gave me Nickleodeon Vibes (Neon Splats) and also had kinda like Skate Vibe sorta thing also of the 90's

But I wouldn't have thought it would have been so successful, I didn't think it would fail I was just pleased how much other people caught onto it.

 

[Ninjadom]

Not sure if many know this, but Splatoon wasn't a full priced game in Europe.

Regular price was £34.99 or £31.49 (10% off) if you have downloaded the Global Testfire while it was $60 in the US. I'm not sure what was the price in Japan because it ended up being really popular.

Click to shrink...

The game came out in the May and I bought it in the July, just 2 months later, for £21.99 brand new sealed, in a local Sainsbury's supermarket. They didn't realise what it was and assumed it was a new budget game.

 

[plebc]

The game came out in the May and I bought it in the July, just 2 months later, for £21.99 brand new sealed, in a local Sainsbury's supermarket. They didn't realise what it was and assumed it was a new budget game.

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I think it was like £25 at release at Base.com

 

[Sandfox]

In what reality? I would say the number of people who thought the Switch was going to be a monster like the Wii wasn't even outnumbered 2 to 1 on this forum. The number of people who thought the Switch would be a success was far from insignificant unlike the OP's example of Splatoon where derision was overwhelming.

Click to shrink...

After the initial Switch presentation there were a lot of people disappointed with the lineup and price saying it would flop.

With Splatoon I'm not actually sure how negative people were on it outside of the old site.

Isn't the PS4 well on it's way to 100 million sold? By the end of production, it has a chance to sell just under 110 million which would match the Wii I believe.

I didn't think RE:2 Remake was going to do as well as it has. Game is selling well beyond my expectations.

Click to shrink...

The PS4 will outsell the Wii, but I was referring more to how the Wii sold a ton super fast before dying after a few years.

 

[Barry Sandwich]

No console is ever going to sell like that again.

Click to shrink...

It was a golden era. I hope one day we see more hardware that crosses boundaries and brings people together the way Wii did.

I have no idea why the industry turned away from advancing motion control given the market popularity when they get the hardware right. Nintendo led the technology, MS & Sony flailed around with late imitators, and then Nintendo... abandoned it.

 

[Lelouch0612]

I have no idea why the industry turned away from advancing motion control given the market popularity when they get the hardware right. Nintendo led the technology, MS & Sony flailed around with late imitators, and then Nintendo... abandoned it.

Click to shrink...

Nintendo didn't abandon motion-control.

Almost all of their games use them.

 

[-shadow-]

The Wonderful 101 deserved so much more, and Nintendo treated it so badly :(

It was a golden era. I hope one day we see more hardware that crosses boundaries and brings people together the way Wii did.

I have no idea why the industry turned away from advancing motion control given the market popularity when they get the hardware right. Nintendo led the technology, MS & Sony flailed around with late imitators, and then Nintendo... abandoned it.

Click to shrink...

Nintendo doesn't primarily focus on it anymore, but it's absolutely still there in their design philosophy. Just look at Mario Party 10 and the optional movement in ARMS, Mario Tennis and Kart.

 

[Handicapped Duck]

The PS4 will outsell the Wii, but I was referring more to how the Wii sold a ton super fast before dying after a few years.

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Ah, I understand, yeah that craze will be difficult to replicate for some time I imagine, if ever.

 

[Barry Sandwich]

Nintendo didn't abandon motion-control.
Almost all of their games use them.

Click to shrink...

Nintendo doesn't primarily focus on it anymore, but it's absolutely still there in their design philosophy. Just look at Mario Party 10 and the optional movement in ARMS, Mario Tennis and Kart.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, but it's been relegated. In games like Mario Tennis Aces it's clearly inferior to Wii. The joycon tech isn't quite up Wii Motion Plus level motion control.

I just wonder where the tech might have gone - what would the next iteration look like if Nintendo hadn't gone with the Gamepad as a core controller.