Aug 12, 2019
5,159
Your one foray into this thread was weird, tbh.
When Russia invaded you slept.
When Russia massacred villages you slept.
When they threatened the use of nukes you slept.
When a poster in here praised a politician for sending aid to Ukraine you derailed the thread with your only three posts made in this thread to date (a thread that's over a year old).

Oh would people please stop with this incredibly dumb shit. A bunch of people work their asses off for important causes, Hachi does more for actual trans rights in the US than I'd wager anyone related to this site does and keeps tabs on all of the heinous anti-trans legislation going through state legislatures.

You don't get points for posting on ERA. In the grand scheme of activism, organizing, and speaking out, ERA is as insignificant as it comes. Nobody achieves anything by posting an additional condemnation in this thread or any other thread about some heinous reality of the world. And some ERA posters will rush to this absolute nonsense of deciding they can call someone's entire life's work, activism, and capacity to care for problems out on whether or not they posted in this thread or that one, or if they made the INSERT N+1 HERE number of posts that show they care. It's bullshit, has always been bullshit, and we can do better. I can't account for every single reason why someone chooses to post or not to post on ERA, but I know it's not actually relevant and I know some posters love to rush to this bot/tankie/REAL SUS YOU DON'T POST lines of reasoning repeatedly and it's never right or acceptable, and doubly so when members have actually really detailed histories supporting relevant issues.

And more to the point, fascists are fascists, and just because they'd give a bomb to Ukraine, doesn't mean we have to give them credit when they're blatant about their own interest to take rights away from, if not outright genocide a variety of minority groups that don't fit their horrific ideology. Like I doubt anyone is ever going to give Putin credit for opening a bunch of really important metro lines in Moscow because it's tone deaf bullshit in this thread, and praising Meloni on a forum that at least claims to be leftist focused/supportive of minorities is also the same thing. If Netanyahu gave the Ukrainians the Iron Dome, you don't have to give him credit because he's a genocidal fascist allying with even more extreme fascists to hold on to power. You don't give them an inch. It's not about a "nuanced take", it's about the fact that there is no reality in which you should give anything to fascists, and praising them for their weapons support to Ukraine is legitimizing them whether you intend to or not and puts minorities further at risk in the process. You can just say, ya know nothing. Because you don't need to legitimize fascists with any praise ever and it's also on ERA, where a lot of people are going to be seriously impacted by fascistic decisions in horrific ways and you should be considerate of them.

The fact that this thread devolves into commentary that at times is indistinguishable from extreme right wing pro-American military think tanks or hyper nationalistic, actually horribly racist Ukrainians that has always been a problem (like, the ongoing usage of orcs by a bunch of Westerners whose greatest relation to Ukraine is obsessing within this thread over Ukraine and its progress in the war) probably doesn't exactly encourage some people to post either. And when people cross the line of shitty behavior that does matter to people here and contributes to minorities feeling excluded/hostility on this site, then they choose to speak up because that actually matters and has an impact versus condemning Russia in a thread where the overwhelming majority (99%) of posters have always seen Russia as the primary bad actor here invading and bombing another country that doesn't actually really contribute a whole lot.

I have no interest in letting people pummel valuable members of the broader ERA community over "sleeping on injustices" because they didn't see the posts they wanted and created an opportunity to attack another member over. It's bullshit and always has been and I've got to step up for Hachi on that one.
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,654
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎
Like I doubt anyone is ever going to give Putin credit for opening a bunch of really important metro lines in Moscow because it's tone deaf bullshit in this thread
smh

Not to mention, it was Sobyanin, not putin.


Btw, speaking about moscow metro and russian xenophobia:
thediplomat.com

Backlash Against Tajik and Uzbek Signage in the Moscow Metro

Anti-immigrant moods are on the rise among Russia officials again, with Tajik and Uzbek signage drawing criticism despite evidence they were helpful additions.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,402
the Netherlands
How bad does their system need to be that they can only figure out that their gear doesn't work because they're at war? Don't they train/practice with or test their equipment?
Dictators will often do things worse than just firing you if you tell them the bad news about the bad state of the military, so these people lie to the dictator. If people are afraid that they'll be send to some penal colony in Siberia or that something will happen to their family if they tell Putin the painful truth they'll just lie. So yeah, the bad state of something wont be exposed until it's actually used.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,618
Seattle
Ack. Shit y'all, I didn't know appreciating someone's support for Ukraine was going to turn into some sort of bat signal.

I didn't really truly understand Meloni's background as an American, as an outsider I've only seen her interactions in regards to Ukraine, and that's all I can really speak on.

It seemed pretty agreeable that in general Poland's government and Boris Johnson were not viewed upon favourable generally, but in regards to Ukraine were hugely important and key to their success, and there had not been this kind of push back at least in regards to Ukraine
 
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
smh

Not to mention, it was Sobyanin, not putin.


Btw, speaking about moscow metro and russian xenophobia:
thediplomat.com

Backlash Against Tajik and Uzbek Signage in the Moscow Metro

Anti-immigrant moods are on the rise among Russia officials again, with Tajik and Uzbek signage drawing criticism despite evidence they were helpful additions.

The point of the metro comment was just showing it really doesn't matter what singular maybe decent thing a fascist does. Why go out of your way to praise one single facet of their reign when the fact of the matter is they support a bunch of horrific other shit that gets people killed and directly harm millions? I wasn't saying praise Putin for that, just the opposite, that it doesn't matter if Putin does some good thing for Russians, he's waging a war against Ukraine killing millions while regressing the Russian state into an authoritarian police state that will abuse every minority possible and is built on hyper Russian nationalism. Just don't praise fascists, blatantly out and direct fascists, for anything ever.

Jesus fuck, can everyone just drop it regarding Meloni? This isn't the thread to discuss it.

I mean, if people say "Hey, the fascist you're taking the time to praise actually deeply disturbs me and is a threat to my existence, so maybe stop that talk" it needs to be said regardless of the thread.
 

Messofanego

Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,517
UK
Ack. Shit y'all, I didn't know appreciating someone's support for Ukraine was going to turn into some sort of bat signal.

I didn't really truly understand Meloni's background as an American, as an outsider I've only seen her interactions in regards to Ukraine, and that's all I can really speak on.

It seemed pretty agreeable that in general Poland's government and Boris Johnson were not viewed upon favourable generally, but in regards to Ukraine were hugely important and key to their success, and there had not been this kind of push back at least in regards to Ukraine
It happens, sometimes we can uncritically share something from social media because it aligns with our views, we're all guilty of that. It's always good to check our sources and research.
 
staff post - stay on topic

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
33,163
Official Staff Communication

OK, how about we stop the derail? Not everyone knows the intricacies of every other nation's politics and who does what. It's part of why the situation early on in the war was such a dumpsterfire.

There's no need to attack others or make crazy accusations against each other. If the derail continues then the ban hammer starts swinging.
 

Ont

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,058
Belarus ditching that dictator family would be another great twist in Putin's master plan.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,454
I mean, if people say "Hey, the fascist you're taking the time to praise actually deeply disturbs me and is a threat to my existence, so maybe stop that talk" it needs to be said regardless of the thread.

The issue is, no one here (as far as I've seen) is actually praising Meloni or her stances on anything other than this war. As someone of Ukrainian descent, I believe Stalin to be equally as evil as Hitler, and I hope he burns in hell forever for what he did. But I also am correct in saying that Stalin worked with the western Allies to defeat Hitler. That isn't a stance on anything Stalin did internally, or his evil. The same can be said of Meloni and others; they are horrible fascists who are correct on a few issues. Because one of those issues is related to this thread, it was brought up. No one is praising Meloni or her stances on trans rights. Just because she is evil, that doesn't mean people can't be happy that she is doing one non-evil thing, and people need to be free to be able to say that.
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,630
Apparently they used off the shelf parts instead of military grade in their early warning ballistic radars. So now we're not only not sure their nukes work, but we're also not sure that they could see themselves getting nuked!

Really bad for MAD.
With all the poor maintenance and the embezzling going on there i doubt they even have a correct overview of how many working nukes they have.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,489
Apparently they used off the shelf parts instead of military grade in their early warning ballistic radars. So now we're not only not sure their nukes work, but we're also not sure that they could see themselves getting nuked!

Really bad for MAD.
Isn't a major part of military grade being protected from jamming and hardened against EMP, etc...? You'd think that type of thing would matter for something as important as an early warning radar.
 

BlackLagoon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,803
Just to be clear..are these long range missiles like offensive? Or Air Defense? What does France have that are long range?
They have SCALP. Which is just the French name for Storm Shadow. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a joint project between France and the UK from the start. France has been sending all sorts of stuff without making a big deal of it, like the pretty new Akeron ATGM.
 

SFLUFAN

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,486
Alexandria, VA
ISW analysis for 14 May 2023 (yes, I know I'm a bit late!)

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified number of drones of varying models at Ukraine and that Ukrainian

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW's archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.


Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on May 14. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Important Note: ISW has reindexed its map layer for reported Ukrainian counteroffensives on May 12, 2023. We removed reported Ukrainian counteroffensive coded before May 1, 2023, in order to delineate more clearly new Ukrainian territorial gains from gains secured in previous Ukrainian counteroffensives. ISW retained a few reported Ukrainian counteroffensives polygons from before May 1, 2023, specifically on the Dnipro River Delta south of Kherson Oblast, to preserve context in that complex area of operations. May 1, 2023, is an arbitrary date and does not mark the beginning or end of any assessed Ukrainian or Russian effort. ISW has reindexed its map layers before and similarly removed old reported Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts following the conclusion of the Battle of Kyiv in April 2022.

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified number of drones of varying models at Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces destroyed 25, including 18 Shahed 131/136s.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces launched 23 Shahed-136/131 drones in total.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea as well as an unspecified number of Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, and that Ukrainian forces shot down three Kh-101/555/55 missiles.[3] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Ternopil and Mykolaiv cities as well as Kharkiv City and Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast with S-300 missiles.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Khmelnytskyi City and Ukrainian military facilities and deployment areas near Ternopil and Petropavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[5]

Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely a part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term. Russian forces have conducted at least 10 series of strikes throughout Ukraine, particularly in rear areas, since April 19.[6] Russian forces have used significantly fewer high precision missiles in these latest series of strikes in comparison to their failed campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure from the fall of 2022 through the winter of 2023. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces likely expended a significant proportion of their precision missiles in the previous air campaign, and the current Russian air campaign may be using far fewer of these missiles in an effort to conserve the limited remaining stocks.[7] Russian forces have instead relied heavily on launching large numbers of Iranian-made Shahed drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, although Ukrainian forces have been more effective in shooting down Russian precision systems than during the previous Russian air campaign.[8] The new Russian air campaign appears to be focused on Kyiv and alleged Ukrainian military industrial and logistics facilities in deep rear areas. The more limited air campaign has so far been more regular than the previous wider Russian campaign against critical infrastructure, and ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may be attempting to conduct almost daily series of strikes to portray themselves as successfully constraining potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[9] The alleged targets and limited nature of this campaign indicates that Russian forces are immediately concerned with current Ukrainian capabilities to launch counteroffensive operations, although the diminished effectiveness of these strikes are likely not significantly constraining Ukrainian capabilities writ large.

Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking around Bakhmut on May 14. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces captured over 10 Russian positions on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut over the course of the day on May 14.[10] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked towards Berkhivka, Klishchiivka, and Kurdiumivka and took up new unspecified positions near the settlements and additionally advanced towards Yahidne from the direction of Bohdanivka.[11] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Ukrainian forces did not conduct any attacks on the night of May 13 to 14, however.[12] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of new Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty emphasized on May 14 that Ukraine's main goal in Bakhmut is to destroy Russian concentration areas and encircle the city, not to conduct frontal assaults.[13] Cherevaty noted that Ukrainian forces have recently advanced up to 300m in some areas, and Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing in two directions in the suburbs of Bakhmut.[14]

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to distract from recent Ukrainian successes near Bakhmut by praising Russian defensive efforts against the Ukrainian counterattacks. The Russian MoD praised the defensive efforts of the Russian 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps) south of Ivanivske, 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) east of Bohdanivka, and the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) in an unspecified area on the Soledar-Bakhmut line.[15] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled all Ukrainian counterattacks and that the 4th Brigade Commander Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov and Deputy Commander for the likely 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps of Political-Military Work Colonel Yevgeny Brovko died while leading their respective defense efforts.[16] The Russian MoD noted that it presented combat medals and state awards to defending Russian personnel at their combat positions, and later posted footage of Russian military leadership presenting over 120 personnel with various awards, including "For Courage," "For Military Distinction," and "For Military Valor."[17] The Russian MoD likely seeks to assuage information space criticism of the MoD's failure to acknowledge Ukrainian battlefield successes in a timely manner without actually acknowledging the degree of these successes, which is consistent with recent Kremlin guidance to not downplay Ukrainian military successes.[18] The MoD also notably highlighted the efforts of its regular forces over those of irregular forces, including Wagner Group forces operating in Bakhmut. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized reports on May 14 that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces are helping Wagner forces, instead claiming that VDV forces are failing to support Wagner's offensive operations, defending captured positions, or recapturing positions recently lost to Ukrainian forces.[19]

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin's newly formed "Club of Angry Patriots" is continuing efforts to expand its presence and influence public discourse. The Club of Angry Patriots announced on May 14 that it is forming regional branches and called on experienced politicians, public opinion leaders, and heads of Russian organizations to participate.[20] The Club of Angry Patriots also stated that it will hold a news conference in Moscow on an unspecified date in June, during which it will address how Russia can win the war in Ukraine.[21]

Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
  • Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely a part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking around Bakhmut on May 14.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to distract from recent Ukrainian successes near Bakhmut by praising Russian defensive efforts against the Ukrainian counterattacks.
  • Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin's newly formed "Club of Angry Patriots" is continuing efforts to expand its presence and influence public discourse.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
  • Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Russian forces continued to fire on areas west of Hulyaipole in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continue efforts to replenish manpower losses using prisoners.
  • Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to prepare for the September 2023 elections in occupied territories.

DraftUkraineCoTMay14,2023.png


Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line on May 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (12km northeast of Kupyansk), Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), and on the eastern outskirts of Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove).[22] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces continue "sluggish" fighting between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka (13km northwest of Svatove), and that elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) have established first lines of defense along the eastern side of the rail line near Novoselivske.[23] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces withdrew from Novoselivske on an unspecified date because the settlement is destroyed and not worth defending, and emphasized that Russian forces still control Kuzemivka.

Russian and Ukrainian sources did not report any Russian ground attacks near Kreminna on May 14. Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov, citing a Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz commander, denied reports that Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defensive lines near Kreminna but acknowledged that Ukrainian forces may be conducting sabotage and reconnaissance in the area.[24] ISW has not observed claims or confirmation of significant Ukrainian offensive activity near Kreminna.

Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2014,2023.png


Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia's proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut as of May 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within Bakhmut itself; within 9km northwest of Bakhmut near Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, and Khromove; and within 14km southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora and Predtechyne.[25] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 13 that Wagner fighters advanced up to 500m in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces currently control 1.78 square kilometers of the city.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut).[27]

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front on May 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled numerous Russian assaults near Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).[28] Russian Southern Grouping of Forces (Southern Military District) Spokesperson Vadim Astafyev claimed that Russian forces prevented Ukrainian forces from conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations near Marinka.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that there are ongoing battles near Novobakhmutivka (13km northeast of Avdiivka) and Kruta Balka (4km northeast of Avdiivka) but that the frontline remains unchanged along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.[30]

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on May 14.[31] The Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces (Eastern Military District) Spokesperson Alexander Gordeev claimed that Russian forces thwarted an attempted Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force operation in an unspecified area of western Donetsk Oblast.[32]

Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2014,2023.png


Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2014,2023.png


Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued to fire on areas west of Hulyaipole in southern Ukraine on May 14.[33] Ukrainian Southern Forces Joint Press Center Head Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces are trying to use sea missile carriers, kamikaze drones, and reconnaissance drones to distract Ukrainian air defenses.[34] Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck Kizomys and Stanislav, Kherson Oblast with four guided aerial bombs and targeted the Chornobaivka and Tokarivka areas with four loitering munitions.[35] The Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian shelling damaged critical infrastructure in Ochakiv Hromada.[36] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov posted footage on May 13 of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) firing incendiary munitions at the Hulyaipole area.[37] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on May 14 that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Mykolaiv City.[38]

Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2014,2023.png


Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2014,2023.png


Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian forces continue efforts to replenish manpower losses using prisoners. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 14 that 200 prisoners arrived at a training camp in Rohove, occupied Luhansk Oblast for a four-week military training course and that an additional 50 recruits will likely arrive by the end of May.[39] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that 800 prisoners are training in Mozhnyakivka, Luhansk Oblast, and that 400 convicts are training with the Wagner Group in Novopetrivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[40] Ongoing prison recruitment efforts are part of a wider campaign of crypto mobilization that avoids the need to conduct general mobilization, as ISW has previously assessed.[41]

Several Russian sources continue to claim that the Wagner Group is successfully continuing recruitment and maintaining a positive reputation despite its challenges in Bakhmut. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 14 that the number of those wishing to join Wagner is increasing because Wagner ensures that all of its soldiers are protected and cared for.[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner has already successfully trained nearly 10,000 volunteers for "people's militias" in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts.[43] A Russian opposition source additionally amplified a video appeal posted by mobilized personnel from Ulyanovsk Oblast where they ask to be transferred from the Russian army to Wagner because they want to fight and not be "abandoned like kittens" by their leadership.[44] Wagner's information campaign to portray itself as an effective and empathetic force is at odds with ubiquitous reports of Wagner's brutality towards its own.[45]

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues measures to integrate the forces of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) into the Russian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on MAY 14 that the Russian MoD issued an order to an unspecified DNR brigade to replace its DNR military tickets with formal Russian tickets and to re-sign service contracts with the Russian armed forces for a two-year minimum.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian MoD is threatening to send DNR forces who refuse to receive Russia military tickets or re-sign contracts with deployment to the most dangerous sectors of the front.[47]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to prepare for regional elections in occupied territories, which are set for September 2023. Chairman of the Russian Central Election Commission Ella Pamfilova met with Russian occupation authorities on May 14 to discuss preparations for the upcoming elections, including creating conditions for fair and safe voting for all residents of occupied territories.[48] Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin stated on May 14 that the Russian Central Election Commission has started preparing the electoral systems and that recruitment to form 615 precinct commissions is ongoing in occupied Donetsk Oblast.[49]

Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive.)

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported on May 14 that Belarusian forces are continuing combat readiness checks and combat training.[50]
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,654
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎

View: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1658227200154390529

I predict Zaluzhny and his Army will eventually liberate most — if not all — of the land occupied by the Russians in this offensive. I know the Ukrainian army, and I also know the Russian army, and there is no doubt in my mind that will be the ultimate result of this offensive campaign. But it is impossible to say with any certainty how exactly it will play out. We can assume it will be a difficult fight. It will severely test the newly assembled Ukrainian force. It will result in many tragic casualties on both sides. And it will strain Russian President Vladimir Putin's will.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also need to prepare for what happens after these initial battles. Ukrainian civilians in the occupied territory will need humanitarian assistance. Massive demining operations will be necessary, as the Russians have been scattering mines and cluster munitions across fields in anticipation of the counteroffensive. And criminally damaged infrastructure will need to be rebuilt.
Peace and victory will come to Ukraine. But it will likely not be an easy one, nor will it be lasting. For those reasons, the West must continue its support.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,402
the Netherlands

That's quite the bold assumption. I'll assume that he means the occupied territories in Zaporizhia and Kherson, because no way Ukraine is swooping across all occupied territories unless the Russian military just completely collapses. Yeah it would be nice if that happened, but it just sounds like an unrealistic dream. I'll be happy if the counteroffensive has the Ukrainian army reach the Sea of Azov, anything more would be a fantastic bonus.
 

AquaRegia

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,706
That's quite the bold assumption. I'll assume that he means the occupied territories in Zaporizhia and Kherson, because no way Ukraine is swooping across all occupied territories unless the Russian military just completely collapses. Yeah it would be nice if that happened, but it just sounds like an unrealistic dream. I'll be happy if the counteroffensive has the Ukrainian army reach the Sea of Azov, anything more would be a fantastic bonus.
How many rivers are there in the south? I recall them being the hold up on continued advances in the north, but the south looks like there aren't a many significant rivers.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,402
the Netherlands
How many rivers are there in the south? I recall them being the hold up on continued advances in the north, but the south looks like there aren't a many significant rivers.
Really the only one is the Dnieper, which divides free Kherson and occupied Kherson. And while it's not due to rivers, Crimea is also only connected to the rest of Ukraine through a few very thin strips of land. There's just 3 roads connecting Kherson and Crimea, of which one is a dirt road.
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,654
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎
That's quite the bold assumption. I'll assume that he means the occupied territories in Zaporizhia and Kherson, because no way Ukraine is swooping across all occupied territories unless the Russian military just completely collapses. Yeah it would be nice if that happened, but it just sounds like an unrealistic dream. I'll be happy if the counteroffensive has the Ukrainian army reach the Sea of Azov, anything more would be a fantastic bonus.
There will be some surprises, that's for sure. Some things made me really optimistic in recents days.
 

jman2050

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
5,853
That's quite the bold assumption. I'll assume that he means the occupied territories in Zaporizhia and Kherson, because no way Ukraine is swooping across all occupied territories unless the Russian military just completely collapses. Yeah it would be nice if that happened, but it just sounds like an unrealistic dream. I'll be happy if the counteroffensive has the Ukrainian army reach the Sea of Azov, anything more would be a fantastic bonus.

I certainly think this is possible, if not probable. The Russian army has been vastly overextended for the duration of the war and especially the past 6-9 months, and them doubling down so hard on their trying to take offensive actions in Vuhledar and Bakhmut is only making them less and less prepared for a major counter assault.

Ukraine has been slowly waiting out the Russians because the Russians just get progressively weaker and weaker over time, all because they never had the infrastructure to support a war in the first place, and more fundamentally because none of them truly want to be there.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,630
Still looks like they are slowly ramping up the pressure to get Russia to commit reserves.in numerous areas.
Yep. Reckon they'll try to punch through lines with western armor and vehicles covered by massive artillery and air (ukrainian activity has been suspiciously low considering they got those MIGs from poland and the rest) support by the time the actual operation starts