Aside from just the immense loss of life and materiel, I wonder if there's something to the relatively low number of tanks hit these past few reports. I'm hoping it's an indicator that the Russia's supply of viable tanks is running thin and they're hesitant to commit them to a zerg rush offensive.
Actually, tank losses are up since March, they are not running out anytime soon:
View: https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1789260969639612667/photo/1
More T-55, T-62, T-90 losses:
View: https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1788321802571141302
I mean that's what happens if you attack NATO. It won't be just Ukraine either it would be pushing them into Russia and laying into them until they surrender. We'd have air, sea and ground supremacy, and hitting them from every side.
But it's really important to communicate this to them in the clearest way possible.
If Russia attacks NATO in any way Russia should be treated the same way Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were treated: unconditional surrender, nothing else.
I'm pretty sure it is communicated to Russia, but not per social media.
I don't believe NATO needs some sort of propaganda machine.
If Russia invades any NATO nation, Russia id the aggressor. Every single Russian troop, tank, aircraft, boat within 50km of NATO territory is fair game and if Putin wants to end the world cause he can't expand his empire, I'm sure the people of Russia are more than happy with that decision and definitely wouldn't just ask for a ceasefire.
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Is this the third this week or another report about one of the earlier ones? If it's 3 in a week then that's pretty damn good
Russia indirectly threatened the Baltics today by the way
View: https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1789185862959325290
View: https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1789185862959325290
Think I read on someone's post on Twitter that Russia has been keeping their tanks in the rear for a possible huge offensive as well as back up artillery as the Bradley's and western tanks have spooked them in the few 1:1 battles they have come across.
Russia bombing themselves again, this time leading to the partial collapse of an apartment building
View: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1789578005498490889?s=19
View: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1789578005498490889?s=19
Unfortunately it sounds like the situation in Kharkiv Oblast is quite bad. Just increasingly looks like Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to keep the front lines steady.
It does seem like Ukraine just yeah outmanned and outgunned at this point. Here's to hoping someone has a plan.
It has been one day and one post about the issue - I recommend cooling down, and waiting to see how things develop before saying things are going bad.
Ukraine outmanned and outgunned has been the Story since nearly day 1, with rare Moments of artillery Parity.
Ukraine outmanned and outgunned has been the Story since nearly day 1, with rare Moments of artillery Parity.
It's nothing about cooling down. It's just looking at the reality of the situation that's been burning for the past year into last year. Ukraine could somewhat make up for the lack of manpower with western power. Which from a couple former soldiers of UA, sounds like it's coming in fast now. Hopefully it gets to front lines and stabilizes some of the situation.
This time it's once again causing them to lose more and more ground.
Ukraine has definitely been too slow to increase manpower or build fortifications. That said I wouldn't worry too much yet as the attacking force is still relatively small for it to advance far.
So the US aid package was announced and made a while ago, but I doubt much of it has reached Ukraine yet. Some probably, but most of it has not arrived yet. And neither has the artillery ammo purchases by EU, or increased EU ammo production. Jet fighters are supposedly in few weeks but not there yet.
So yeah in "few weeks" situation will likely be a bit better for Ukraine once aid starts actually getting delivered.
But right now all of West is being outgunned by Russia. Not just Ukraine. "The peace dividend" we enjoyed for so long meant that we ramped down our own production capacity. US still has some, but EU military production is in dire state.
So yeah in "few weeks" situation will likely be a bit better for Ukraine once aid starts actually getting delivered.
But right now all of West is being outgunned by Russia. Not just Ukraine. "The peace dividend" we enjoyed for so long meant that we ramped down our own production capacity. US still has some, but EU military production is in dire state.
Since I still had a few browser tabs open, I can say that several weeks ago it was written everywhere that everyone expected the situation in Ukraine and Kharkiv oblast to deteriorate in May/June, or rather in mid-May.
Basically, what is happening now is exactly what all the analysts predicted, even if we all hoped that things would not turn out that way or not so badly.
Now we can only cling to the hope that the analysts will also be right that there will be painful territorial losses, but no catastrophic breakthrough.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed!!!
Basically, what is happening now is exactly what all the analysts predicted, even if we all hoped that things would not turn out that way or not so badly.
Now we can only cling to the hope that the analysts will also be right that there will be painful territorial losses, but no catastrophic breakthrough.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed!!!
Holy shit - it seems like the arrest of the Deputy Defence Minister on corruption charges a few weeks back was part of a move against him, but I wasn't expecting it to escalate to this.
Shoigu has been a government minister for basically as long as the Russian Federation has existed, predating Putin. He is quite literally the ultimate survivor.
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Wild! Hopefully the infighting and sacking of high command causes a bunch of confusion and loss of morale.
It's probably worth waiting until we get some analysis from Kremlin-watchers, but it seems like this guy is something of a technocrat (unless I'm reading his wiki page wrong).
Damn, the plot thickens - isn't Patrushev essentially on top of the (informal) pyramid when it comes to Putin's inner circle?
Let's hope six foot under. Is there anything higher than security adviser but below president?
Unlikely, since the GenShtab and operational commands stay the same, and Shoigu is widely unpopular in military circles.
Maybe russia is starting to put competent people in certain areas then. Ukraine needs to hurry and start their draft and the west needs to increase their help ASAP. this is what six months of no help does, gives the enemy an opening.
At some point weapons support wont matter anymore because math in relation to manpower stops adding up. Ukraine needs to mobilize, and it needed to happen months ago so men would be properly trained instead of being just meat to fill gaps for few minutes.
imbecile with moustache is brutally honest today
View: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789736818490966263
less food, more shells
View: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789736818490966263
less food, more shells
Belousov was the deputy PM responsible for the MIC. He's also the proponent of the windfall tax on Russian exports in 2022, and in general, he's the proponent of a more command-style military economy. In the long term, this won't be good for them, but in the short-term, they can squeeze out results.
Yeah, they are feeling the pinch and need to make, ahem, cost savings. Now is the time to push even harder sanctions. Also, their much-vaunted hypersonic missiles, as well as other projects, have been a dud and likely had huge amounts spent on them. The trouble is military complex is getting fat on the boost in money and will be VERY unhappy if budgets get trimmed. That's a problem for Putin.
An interesting rumour is that the new guy is being pushed by some (his father mostly and others at the kremlin) as the next President after Putin leaves/dies. Promoting him to head of defence would make sense in that case. Putin probably feared that Shogi would try and take Presidency after him. Shuffling him off to one side while not making it seem like a demotion keeps him in line.
I wonder if timing with recent offensives in Ukraine is a coincidence or not. Might be that they didn't provide the strategic breakthrough Russia was hoping for and now Russia is forced to take a more long term view on the conflict?
Could mean less pressure in the short term, but would also mean Russia wants to keep this going for years and years.
The bigger possible implications about this shuffle are regarding Nikolai Patrushev. Wasn't he seen as the de facto 2nd most powerful figure in Russia and most likely to replace Putin in the case of a change in power ? Removing him from his position seems like a bigger deal than Shoigu.
Rumour mill had his son (Minister of Agriculture) as the next PM, which is a de facto successor position.
Patrushev is the head of the FSB/Security hardliners faction. Depending where he ends up now will be interesting to see whether there's any shifts in the strategic approach.
By making Shoigu (the least security-minded person possible) the head of the Sec Council, Putler is actually weakening the hardliners. While at the MoD one bureaucrat is being replaced by another, albeit one even more economically backwards one.