Russia has begun a full-scale invasion in Ukraine [READ STAFF POSTS]

Everyday Math · May 13, 2024

Hali01 said:
But wouldn't it have been smarter to do that will the Ukraine aid was in limbo?

Well that was mostly winter. So it would've been a lot more difficult. Not that Russia cares mind you. They also might've not had the force build up at the time. They also could've been waiting for a breakthrough like the one that recently occurred.

Everyday Math · May 13, 2024

Full Thread
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1790086938046710097.html

View: https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1790086938046710097?s=46&t=zmlNC97WauosZt7jmwO0Ag

View: https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1790086957499887917?s=46&t=zmlNC97WauosZt7jmwO0Ag

horkrux · May 13, 2024

PiranhaMan said:
At this point Ukraine should just ignore the West requests saying they can't use Western Weapons inside Russia. They ignored the West's request to not bomb Oil Refineries due to fear of "escalation" and higher oil prices but it looks like neither of those things happened.

They can't do that, because then people in those supporting countries will go "HUAHGGHGHGHHGH" <unintelligible noises> and pressure their politicians to stop all aid. Too many people still believe in such a thing as the West and Ukraine "escalating the conflict" as if Russia wasn't already escalating it to the fricking moon.

Everyday Math · May 13, 2024

View: https://x.com/ralee85/status/1790146344608207328?s=46&t=zmlNC97WauosZt7jmwO0Ag

BringBackSonics · May 13, 2024

Hali01 said:
View: https://x.com/MarQs__/status/1790091932913320403

Surely they won't open another front ? Why is Russia pushing all of a sudden

Because fuck Ukraine, basically.

maabus1999 · May 13, 2024

This is the year for Russia to push Ukraine into something or try and breakthrough if they really are still going maximalist. So don't be surprised by numerous attempts across the board to stretch Ukraine thin. Ukraine, besides the Western aid shortfall, really delayed manpower increases, and that is what Russia is really trying to take advantage of right now.

maabus1999 · May 13, 2024

So yeah, remember that discussion on ballistic missiles into Russia a day or so ago? While this isn't a confirmation, as that could've easily been a SAM booster, but yeah, someone found some toys somewhere....

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1790138419324076313

Asator · May 13, 2024

PiranhaMan said:
At this point Ukraine should just ignore the West requests saying they can't use Western Weapons inside Russia. They ignored the West's request to not bomb Oil Refineries due to fear of "escalation" and higher oil prices but it looks like neither of those things happened.

They probably wouldn't be able to even if they wanted, some of the guided ammunition given to them was modified so they couldn't enter coordinates targeting russia. This applies at least to the HIMARS and probably the ATACMS. Not sure about SCALPs/Storm Shadows.

And regardless, that would be a terrible message to send to the people you rely on for survival. The restriction for striking targets inside russia should absolutely be lifted, but this isn't the way to go about it.

As for the refineries thing, it was mostly a US reaction. Most other nations considered it fair game.

Pankratous said:
This should have happened ages ago. And not just Estonia, but UK, France, Germany, and Poland.

Macron suggested something similar not long ago, but a huge part of NATO had a collective aneurysm at the idea. Only Poland and some Baltic nations (including Estonia) seemed to be open to the idea IIRC.

Honestly, I feel they absolutely should do this as well as sending (but not giving) anti air systems manned by personnel from the nations owning them (i.e. Polish Patriots operated by Polish personnel, French SAMP/Ts operated by French personnel, etc), whose purpose would be only to shoot down missiles and drones. That would free Ukrainian personnel and equipment to bring closer to the front and allow them to be more aggressive with their interceptions.
They could also deploy jets in Romania and Poland to intercept russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory, like what happened during iran attack on israel last month.

Res · May 13, 2024

maabus1999 said:
So yeah, remember that discussion on ballistic missiles into Russia a day or so ago? While this isn't a confirmation, as that could've easily been a SAM booster, but yeah, someone found some toys somewhere....

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1790138419324076313

I wonder where they got more of them. I thought all of them were used up early in the war

Asator said:
They probably wouldn't be able to even if they wanted, some of the guided ammunition given to them was modified so they couldn't enter coordinates targeting russia. This applies at least to the HIMARS and probably the ATACMS. Not sure about SCALPs/Storm Shadows.

And regardless, that would be a terrible message to send to the people you rely on for survival. The restriction for striking targets inside russia should absolutely be lifted, but this isn't the way to go about it.

As for the refineries thing, it was mostly a US reaction. Most other nations considered it fair game.

Macron suggested something similar not long ago, but a huge part of NATO had a collective aneurysm at the idea. Only Poland and some Baltic nations (including Estonia) seemed to be open to the idea IIRC.

Honestly, I feel they absolutely should do this as well as sending (but not giving) anti air systems manned by personnel from the nations owning them (i.e. Polish Patriots operated by Polish personnel, French SAMP/Ts operated by French personnel, etc), whose purpose would be only to shoot down missiles and drones. That would free Ukrainian personnel and equipment to bring closer to the front and allow them to be more aggressive with their interceptions.
They could also deploy jets in Romania and Poland to intercept russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory, like what happened during iran attack on israel last month.

Yes, they don't even have to send infantry into the trenches. They can just provide air support and defense

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 13, 2024

View: https://twitter.com/ruth_deyermond/status/1790097035703488722

View: https://twitter.com/ruth_deyermond/status/1790099152942092753

View: https://twitter.com/ruth_deyermond/status/1790102328042827855

Over the last 30+ years, the Russian govt's has sought to coerce those states it regards as weak and in which it has an interest. Western states that fail to push back clearly and hard against Russian attacks will fall into that category and can expect the same treatment.

The current attacks and the very strong likelihood that they will worsen in the future need to be made clear to citizens in the context of tough discussions about spending choices. Defence isn't a luxury, it's the precondition for everything else we want to do as a society.

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 13, 2024

View: https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1790172234310455715

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 13, 2024

FT: The smuggling trail keeping Russian passenger jets in the air

https://www.ft.com/content/f8d61a5d-708f-47c4-8dbd-0e80452dea5a

Turboshaft, a modest Emirati business registered to a warehouse in Sharjah Airport, is a microcosm for the way that Russia is obtaining its parts. The company is run by Timur Badr, a 39-year-old Russian gym enthusiast. Born in Astrakhan, Badr's family has lived in Dubai since he was a child. His UAE residency permit lists him as a citizen of St Kitts and Nevis.

According to customs data, Turboshaft was not listed as a supplier to S7 in the year prior to the full-scale invasion. It first appears as a supplier of the airline in May 2022, when it delivered a steel rotary valve and the "O-ring" for the flush on an Airbus toilet. Within weeks, it was sending sensitive electronics in luggage. In total, Turboshaft has shipped $1.5mn of goods to S7 since the start of the war, according to the customs documentation.

The UAE is a central hub in this trade for good reason: it has long been seen as a key location for the transnational smuggling networks which supply airline parts to Iran, whose airline industry has had to cope with a variety of sanctions regimes since 1979.

Turboshaft has itself been involved in trades involving Iran. In 2016, it bought two mothballed Airbus aircraft from the Greek government for $4.2mn. Badr sold the aircraft on, and they rapidly appeared in Iran. One of the aircraft was taken up by the sanctioned Iranian airline Mahan Air. The other eventually joined the sanctioned Syrian Air, for which it still flies.

The allure of selling aircraft parts to Russia is clear; sanctions and export controls have dramatically increased the cost of sensitive imports.

Versions of devices such as ADIRUs that cost $50,000 to $70,000 on the open market are now routinely sold into Russia for more than $120,000. One customs filing submitted by Treetops lists an object described as an ADIRU whose weight implies only one item was in the package. It was sold for more than $600,000.

Patrakov, the expert on Russian aviation safety, says that big mark-ups are being offered across the spectrum. He uses the example of a standard in-air anti-collision system. "The size of a shoebox, it's a required feature for the safety of the aircraft . . . One unit, depending on the airplane, costs $15,000-25,000. But now the cost of shipping it to Sheremetyevo [in Moscow] is over $100,000 per unit.

"The problems caused by all these sanctions . . . were extinguished with a flood of money. The airlines had the opportunity to buy parts for more money in smaller volumes and lower quality, but still meeting the minimum safety threshold."

He adds: "Maintaining airworthiness is expensive . . . So why is all of this still working, and the planes even flying? There was unprecedented support for the airline industry."

As imports have shrunk, the Russian aviation authorities have responded by loosening some rules — such as automatically extending airworthiness certifications for aircraft to extend the lifetimes of parts.

Cannibalisation of planes is expected to follow. An official Russian government plan, published in June 2022, stated that a fall-off in flights was expected as planes were retired and "partially dismantled" to be used for spare parts. "At least 70 per cent of the foreign aviation fleet will remain in operation by the end of 2025, meeting the projected capacity needs," the plan claims.

In the long term, Russia has unveiled a plan to build 1,000 new aircraft by 2030. The state allocated Rbs580bn (€10.7bn) in 2022 to buy aircraft from foreign lessors and aid domestic aircraft construction. The plan, however, has already suffered delays.

Litvinov, the former pilot, believes Russia should have focused on domestic airplane production years ago. "Foreign planes will go into disrepair and there will be nothing to replace them with," he says. "That's what is critical."

He adds: "The problem is not that [the planes] will all start falling out of the sky every day, but that there may come a point when there will simply be nothing to fly on."

https://archive.ph/rAx1A

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 13, 2024

Microsoft still has not restricted access to its software to Russian IT-companies, although it promised to do so after March 20

Microsoft не решилась ограничить доступ российским IT-компаниям к своему ПО - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Американская корпорация Microsoft так и не ограничила российским IT-компаниям доступ к своему программному обеспечению (ПО), хотя обещала сделать это после 20 марта, рассказали «Известиям» источники в отрасли.

www.moscowtimes.ru

Microsoft is looking for loopholes to stay on the Russian market, which is very important to them. Even if the company claims otherwise in its statements, in private conversations they have guaranteed full support for their software," said Valentin Makarov, president of the Russoft association.

As a source in one of the major IT distributors explained to Izvestia, the company does not prevent the purchase and activation of new licenses purchased through parallel imports. Only the public sector, which is gradually switching to domestic products, has abandoned this software. Commercial enterprises continue to use the same Office and do not plan to switch from it as long as its use is not officially banned, he added.

... formally they should follow the sanctions, but in reality it is not so. For example, when the company was still publicly present in the Russian Federation, they created a special legal entity in Krasnodar that sold licenses to Crimea, although officially they declared that they did not do so

https://iz.ru/1693723/ivan-chernousov/zagruzochnye-dni-microsoft-razblokirovala-obnovleniia-dlia-polzovatelei-iz-rf

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 14, 2024

FT: Raiffeisen has been a rogue operator in Russia for too long

https://www.ft.com/content/1d12528b-f264-4b88-baf0-f4b718aa36f7

There is a simple, extraordinary fact about the business of Raiffeisen Bank International — one that exemplifies why the west has failed to hobble the Russian economy, in spite of an apparently onerous sanctions regime imposed on the country since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

For the past three years, the profits generated by the Austrian bank's Russian arm have exceeded the entirety of the group's other operations.

Given that all of Russia's main banks have been sanctioned — and western banks have been pressured by governments and regulators to aggressively shrink their Russian business and ultimately withdraw — it is striking that Raiffeisen, in contrast to its rivals, has actually increased the proportion of profits the country contributes to its bottom line.

According to estimates from Citigroup analysts, the bank will this year make a net profit from its units in Russia and close ally Belarus of nearly €1.2bn, compared with barely €500mn from all its other continuing operations: that is 69 per cent of profits.

This both looks bad and is bad. For a western bank to be thriving there is a snub to western governments that have tried to shut down Russia's global connectivity. It is also a very real help to the country's economy, and thus its war machine. The western banks still in Russia are key conduits for clients there to operate internationally, while simultaneously generating substantial tax revenues. (Last year foreign banks paid more than €800mn in taxes to the Russian government, with Raiffeisen responsible for more than half that tally.)

So it was hardly surprising that the US Treasury in January began a probe into Raiffeisen's Russian business. Or that last month, the European Central Bank, the group's primary regulator, pressed it to accelerate its withdrawal from the country.

Until recently, Raiffeisen had given the strong impression that it thought it could maintain its awkward equilibrium of operating a large Russian business, while keeping the authorities at bay. As the Financial Times revealed a few weeks ago, it had even appeared to be in growth mode, posting thousands of job advertisements, which revealed plans for "active expansion". A chastened Raiffeisen said: "The [advertisements] do not reflect the measures taken by RBI to reduce its Russian business, nor do they correspond to the future plans for the Russian business."

Unlike sanctioned Russian banks, Raiffeisen remains part of the Swift network which links banks around the world. The bank does not disclose a detailed breakdown of its money transfer operations, and declined to comment on the extent to which this part of its Russian business had been booming.

Against this background, Raiffeisen's shareholders have remained bizarrely sanguine. Though the shares fell by more than a half on news of Russia's Ukraine invasion, they have rebounded by 26 per cent over the past year. They now trade at about 30 per cent of book value, towards the bottom of the bank's European peer group. But given that more than half of the bank's business is vulnerable to Vladimir Putin on the one hand and western policymakers on the other, that still feels amazingly bullish.

https://archive.ph/hx0zO

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 14, 2024

View: https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1789947978704138306

View: https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1789947982508441607

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 14, 2024

Volgograd

View: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1790243731339178118

baza tg channel claims it was drone

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 14, 2024

View: https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1790248365822730685

KastuśKalinoŭski · May 14, 2024

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Kyiv to reaffirm American support for Ukraine in its war with Russia

abcnews.go.com

Asator · May 14, 2024

KastuśKalinoŭski said:
View: https://twitter.com/ruth_deyermond/status/1790097035703488722

And this right here is exactly why the far right in multiple countries is siding with russia. As Jon Stewart said, it's "non-woke russia vs the woke West".

KastuśKalinoŭski said:
Microsoft still has not restricted access to its software to Russian IT-companies, although it promised to do so after March 20

Microsoft не решилась ограничить доступ российским IT-компаниям к своему ПО - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Американская корпорация Microsoft так и не ограничила российским IT-компаниям доступ к своему программному обеспечению (ПО), хотя обещала сделать это после 20 марта, рассказали «Известиям» источники в отрасли.

www.moscowtimes.ru

https://iz.ru/1693723/ivan-chernous...okirovala-obnovleniia-dlia-polzovatelei-iz-rf

Boy, MS is really on a fucking roll with all of those Ls.

Sarek · May 14, 2024

KastuśKalinoŭski said:
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Kyiv to reaffirm American support for Ukraine in its war with Russia

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Kyiv to reaffirm American support for Ukraine in its war with Russia

abcnews.go.com

Rather than endless platitudes about continuing support he should just say that the US doesn't impose any restrictions on donated weapon use. This attack on Kharkiv is a good example why that is such a boneheaded move. As it allows Russia to relatively freely gather an invasion force, as long as they don't cross the border.

Baobab · May 14, 2024

What is clear is that Ukraine should have the liberty to use any western provided weapon to strike military and logistics target in Russia.
This "gentleman" approach from the USA and the EU is the definition of stupidity.

Pankratous · May 14, 2024

Blinken is in Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-69007139

Edit: in the same link Grant Shapps interview snippets are included

Grant Shapps is next asked about comments earlier from the former Nato Deputy Supreme Commander for Europe who discussed the need for a "fundamental shift" within the West to not only give Ukraine enough to defend but to defeat.

The UK defence secretary says he agrees, adding that if everyone stepped up it would be a fraction of defence spending overall.

He thinks it is a "question of political will", saying it would be a lot cheaper, and the right thing to do, to defend and therefore deter Putin here and now rather than to allow him to win.

oibboddl · May 14, 2024

Article with information from an interview with Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (NY Times)
(without Paywall)

"The situation is on the edge," Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. "Every hour this situation moves toward critical."

His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country's military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.

Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine's already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.

That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.

"All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar," he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. "I've used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don't have anyone else in the reserves."

General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.

General Budanov said the Russians' goal in the northeast was to sow panic and confusion in the region. "At the moment, our task is to stabilize the line and then begin to push them back across the border," he said, adding that an influx of Ukrainian reserves had managed to "partially disrupt their plans."
Whether these troop movements will weaken Ukraine's defenses in other parts of the front line remains to be seen.
Russia's main objective, according to Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst, is to draw forces away from Chasiv Yar, a town on strategic high ground where Ukrainians have fought for weeks to hold off a Russian attack. It is key to defending the Ukrainian-controlled part of the southeastern Donbas region, which Russia hopes to capture.

General Budanov said he expected the attacks in the Kharkiv region to last another three or four days, after which Russian forces are expected to make a hard push in the direction of Sumy, a city about 90 miles to the northwest of Kharkiv. Ukrainian officials have previously said that Russia had massed troops across the border from Sumy.

Adventureracing · May 14, 2024

Situation seems pretty dire. We hear talks about trying to ramp up production of shells etc for next year and beyond but the question seriously has to be asked about what state Ukraine will be in by next year and if they can hold out that long. Even if supplies do start to arrive will Ukraine have the man power to actually use it to make a difference? Can only hope the worse situation on the ground lights a fire on countries trying to provide more immediate aid but it's hard to be hopeful.

Shevek · May 14, 2024

Adventureracing said:
Situation seems pretty dire. We hear talks about trying to ramp up production of shells etc for next year and beyond but the question seriously has to be asked about what state Ukraine will be in by next year and if they can hold out that long. Even if supplies do start to arrive will Ukraine have the man power to actually use it to make a difference? Can only hope the worse situation on the ground lights a fire on countries trying to provide more immediate aid but it's hard to be hopeful.

If they haven't already, they (Ukraine, the US, EU, NATO) also need to begin having very serious discussions about what next steps are going to be if Trump wins the White House in November.

That will be the most catastrophic scenario, but it's an all too real possibility that they need to prepare for.

oibboddl · May 14, 2024

Shevek said:
If they haven't already, they (Ukraine, the US, EU, NATO) also need to begin having very serious discussions about what next steps are going to be if Trump wins the White House in November.

That will be the most catastrophic scenario, but it's an all too real possibility that they need to prepare for.

That's the absurd thing about the US for me as a European: a political candidate who appears as an (obvious) defendant in so many fundamental lawsuits, makes fun of disabled people and publicly stands by his sexist locker room talk, would have no chance at all in pretty much any election with publicity on the continent, even as a (then former) super star of the most popular right-wing parties.

Since Europe always has to imitate the USA with a delay of a few decades, these conditions scare me even more than they already do.

But I am afraid, that there is even less planning for the "orange" scenario outside the USA than there is a strategy in the West after two years on how to really help Ukraine.

Ephonk · May 14, 2024

oibboddl said:
That's the absurd thing about the US for me as a European: a political candidate who appears as an (obvious) defendant in so many fundamental lawsuits, makes fun of disabled people and publicly stands by his sexist locker room talk, would have no chance at all in pretty much any election with publicity on the continent, even as a (then former) super star of the most popular right-wing parties.

I'd argue someone like Berlusconi was a smarter version of Trump. A businessman who was sexist, racist, convicted of crimes (like tax evasion, bribery, false accounting, ... ) - with his own media channels etc.

But this isn't the thread for this.

On topic: the lack of mobilization by Ukraine is as problematic as the slow handling of support by the West. Said this a few months ago and it's even more dire today.

Amroth · May 14, 2024

View: https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/C68OH0woa4c

Reckheim · May 14, 2024

Ephonk said:
I'd argue someone like Berlusconi was a smarter version of Trump. A businessman who was sexist, racist, convicted of crimes (like tax evasion, bribery, false accounting, ... ) - with his own media channels etc.

But this isn't the thread for this.

On topic: the lack of mobilization by Ukraine is as problematic as the slow handling of support by the West. Said this a few months ago and it's even more dire today.

They should of done a significant mobilization after the failed offensive last year; I'm really not sure what the plan is anymore.

Maquiladora · May 14, 2024

View: https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1790352592507179491?t=Q4yrdOaWeivFudRDaLwm-A&s=19

oibboddl · May 14, 2024

Reckheim said:
They should of done a significant mobilization after the failed offensive last year; I'm really not sure what the plan is anymore.

I understand the idea that mobilization is anything but popular among the population, especially among those who are affected personally, but without defenders - there will be no country left!

Perhaps Ukraine has been infected by the logic of the "supporters", who seem to think that a handful of weapons will somehow do the trick...?

Biden is in the election campaign - higher gasoline prices are driving voters away from him, so the US/current government reacts indignantly to attacks on refineries that could possibly drive up the price of oil, still understandable in theory, but Zelenskyj does not hold an election while martial law is active. Wouldn't it be better to "briefly" anger the people with a mobilization, but in the end perhaps take all the credit for successfully defending the country?

(Regarding Berlusconi: Since when has Italy been part of Europe? ;-) Ok, lesson learned, it's so easy to forget the unpleasant past in which Berlusconi has been repeatedly elected... Sorry for the derail)

maabus1999 · May 14, 2024

Maquiladora said:
View: https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1790352592507179491?t=Q4yrdOaWeivFudRDaLwm-A&s=19

View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790338215712337949

KillerMan91 · May 14, 2024

Ephonk said:
I'd argue someone like Berlusconi was a smarter version of Trump. A businessman who was sexist, racist, convicted of crimes (like tax evasion, bribery, false accounting, ... ) - with his own media channels etc.

But this isn't the thread for this.

On topic: the lack of mobilization by Ukraine is as problematic as the slow handling of support by the West. Said this a few months ago and it's even more dire today.

While true mobilization would had been probably far easier to sell to the public if people knew they get the best weapons they can get to fight instead of some 40 years old soviet crap.

Culex · May 14, 2024

Probably less than 2 weeks away now from 500k Russian casualties. Happy Memorial Day!

Feels like this nightmare will never end.

Koukalaka · May 14, 2024

KillerMan91 said:
While true mobilization would had been probably far easier to sell to the public if people knew they get the best weapons they can get to fight instead of some 40 years old soviet crap.

I get the sense that they had more volunteers than they could reasonably equip when the war started, so they could sorta dodge having a wider and longer term mobilisation plan early on - but this seems to be the key issue now.

It's a horrendous situation and I don't blame anyone that doesn't want to be drafted, but it's also meant many of those on the front-line haven't been able to get properly rotated out to rest, retrain and refit (and see their families). A more systemic approach would also have meant troops could have spent more time in training, and new units could get sent to quiet parts of the frontline to get acclimatised rather than rushed to where the fighting was thickest.

Of course, Russia has also managed to dodge this by a combination of throwing obscene amounts of money at insanely poor people, pardoning prisoners, and forcing Central Asian and Nepali migrants into service, but who knows what their plan will be if that stops delivering a constant stream of new soldiers.

Ephonk · May 14, 2024

KillerMan91 said:
While true mobilization would had been probably far easier to sell to the public if people knew they get the best weapons they can get to fight instead of some 40 years old soviet crap.

My point in February was that they had to mobilize new recruits to be ready by the second half of 2024 and even looking forward to 2025.

Everyday Math · May 14, 2024

KillerMan91 said:
While true mobilization would had been probably far easier to sell to the public if people knew they get the best weapons they can get to fight instead of some 40 years old soviet crap.

UA military units were asking for proper mobilization the summer after the war started and ever since then. They were experiencing bad rotations back then already and the west aid was flowing at the time. This is on the UA government.

targethyena · May 14, 2024

maabus1999 said:
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790338215712337949

Yeah.. I mean it would be a bit silly for a General to say publicly that we'll lose an area that's not contested? Seems like bait to get the Ruskies in

KillerMan91 · May 14, 2024

Koukalaka said:
I get the sense that they had more volunteers than they could reasonably equip when the war started, so they could sorta dodge having a wider and longer term mobilisation plan early on - but this seems to be the key issue now.

It's a horrendous situation and I don't blame anyone that doesn't want to be drafted, but it's also meant many of those on the front-line haven't been able to get properly rotated out to rest, retrain and refit (and see their families). A more systemic approach would also have meant troops could have spent more time in training, and new units could get sent to quiet parts of the frontline to get acclimatised rather than rushed to where the fighting was thickest.

Of course, Russia has also managed to dodge this by a combination of throwing obscene amounts of money at insanely poor people, and forcing Central Asian and Nepali migrants into service, but who knows what their plan will be if that starts becoming an issue.

Ephonk said:
My point in February was that they had to mobilize new recruits to be ready by the second half of 2024 and even looking forward to 2025.

Everyday Math said:
UA military units were asking for proper mobilization the summer after the war started and ever since then. They were experiencing bad rotations back then already and the west aid was flowing at the time. This is on the UA government.

I mean there absolutely should have been mobilization earlier and obviously those at the front have been asking for it for long time. Just that it would had been probably easier to sell to the public without backslash if there was greater western support (I would imagine reason they have tried to postpone it has been unpopularity of it among the public).

activepassive · May 14, 2024

View: https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1790337205556097150?t=3UwfOoJkjmYz9Nw4s_7MuA&s=19

Georgia is at a serious inflection point as the final approval vote for the bill comes in.

Koukalaka · May 14, 2024

activepassive said:
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1591755596696780800?t=7K2vJ-SNzpLJJvByjV3pag&s=19

This on the east bank of the river (the Russian occupied side)?

activepassive · May 14, 2024

Koukalaka said:
This on the east bank of the river (the Russian occupied side)?

I'm greatly sorry for this. That's two years old. I tried to edit it in time.

My phone keyboard autopopulates that from when I posted it then. So annoying!

Mentalist · May 14, 2024

activepassive said:
View: https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1790337205556097150?t=3UwfOoJkjmYz9Nw4s_7MuA&s=19

Georgia is at a serious inflection point as the final approval vote for the bill comes in.

The bill passed 3rd reading.

Guessing now the Pres will veto it, and then the parliament will overturn the veto

Patrushev and Dyumin (governor of Tula) both named as Putler's "assisstants". That's a nebulous and informal role in the hierarchy, . so hard to say what this means atm.

CitizenVectron · May 14, 2024

Mentalist said:
The bill passed 3rd reading.

Guessing now the Pres will veto it, and then the parliament will overturn the veto

Patrushev and Dyumin (governor of Tula) both named as Putler's "assisstants". That's a nebulous and informal role in the hierarchy, . so hard to say what this means atm.

Can you (or anyone else) explain what this bill does, exactly?

Everyday Math · May 14, 2024

View: https://x.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1790411230689059095?s=61&t=ibsS0wDgi_2qddo-rUQe1g

AquaRegia · May 14, 2024

Two questions on the Georgia bill:

1) The "foreign actor" label seems like a rhetorical tool, but exactly what does of "monitored by the Justice Ministry and could be forced to share sensitive information" mean? Does the bill give the Justice Ministry power to outright shut down a group?
(Going off the summary from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465)

2) How does a political party get a supermajority after introducing the bill last year and pulling it amid protests when 80% of the population wants to work with the EU?

I'll take my answer as a private message if it would derail the thread too much, but this seemed the best place to ask.

Everyday Math · May 14, 2024

View: https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790399449233084660?s=61&t=ibsS0wDgi_2qddo-rUQe1g

Tovarisc · May 14, 2024

KillerMan91 said:
I mean there absolutely should have been mobilization earlier and obviously those at the front have been asking for it for long time. Just that it would had been probably easier to sell to the public without backslash if there was greater western support (I would imagine reason they have tried to postpone it has been unpopularity of it among the public).

Being mobilized into a warzone will never be popular, no matter what kind money or gear there is. Now Ukrainian government is putting themselves into very difficult position by putting off mobilization to avoid hit to support from people, but same time risk of catastrophic event at the front goes up over time as reserves thin out. They are taking huge risk of needing to be reactive to catastrophic event which will lead to poorly trained men being sent to plug holes, instead of being proactive.

If it comes to how infantry is being equipped maybe they could raid few of those warehouses that are in exclusive use for special operations units. Supposedly those teams have exclusive access to overflowing amounts of Western gear, kept in storage just for them. Anything they want and as much as they want.

GiantEnemyCrab · May 14, 2024

There were people on this very forum arguing that no one should be forced to be mobilized if they don't want to.

I mean, you can do that but then there should be no surprise if you lose such a war and all that follows.

EagleClaw · May 14, 2024

GiantEnemyCrab said:
There were people on this very forum arguing that no one should be forced to be mobilized if they don't want to.

I mean, you can do that but then there should be no surprise if you lose such a war and all that follows.

I believe it will not help to forcefully mobilize.
Ukraine might be outnumbered even with forcefully mobilization and losing the benefit of good morale.
Even worse would be the idea to deport Ukrainians from the EU to Ukraine after 2 years for mobilization.
Maybe it would have been better to not let them go in the first place and offer them to fight for their home.