Russian troops are arriving in the Belarussian city of Gomel

Steeven

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,448

Steeven

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,448
Oct 25, 2017
15,110
So this guy is convinced that Russia will try another last push for Kyiv. I disagree, I think they're trying to keep the pressure on the north. But hey, Hitler tried the Battle of the Bulge so who knows what Putler is up to.


View: https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1581215090489012224

View: https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1580967012196839425

They certainly want it to be seen, that's for sure. Might it just be a way to take some pressure off of the other fronts?
 

Rosur

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,512
So this guy is convinced that Russia will try another last push for Kyiv. I disagree, I think they're trying to keep the pressure on the north. But hey, Hitler tried the Battle of the Bulge so who knows what Putler is up to.


View: https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1581215090489012224

View: https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1580967012196839425


Do they think that front is under-defended and hasn't been fortified over the last 6months+?
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,958
Lukashenko has to know that joining into Putin's mess is basically the any% speedrun of Ceausescu, right? He'll lose the army, then the police, and it will all happen pretty fast. Everyone in Belarus saw the cargo 200 out of the first round of it, and that was professional soldiers of the Russian army.

Unlike Russia, where the military and civilian institutions have a hard time disassociating the country from the regime, that is not really the case in Belarus. The nationalists can - and probably would - want to remove any involvement in the war ASAP if they couldn't prevent it outright before Luka got involved.
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,520
FIN

View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581207987661598720


They certainly want it to be seen, that's for sure. Might it just be a way to take some pressure off of the other fronts?

Highly doubtful. Ukraine has been quite out in open about having sizable forces at Belarusian border region, and that they have been fortifying it between running defense drills. Push from Belarus would need to be very significant to force Ukraine shuffle its operational deck.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,631
Highly doubtful. Ukraine has been quite out in open about having sizable forces at Belarusian border region, and that they have been fortifying it between running defense drills. Push from Belarus would need to be very significant to force Ukraine shuffle its operational deck.
If they start a push it would be mostly belarussian infantry + mobiks running into fortified ukrainian positions. Belarus has been giving their tanks to russia so they probably won't have much armor left and it's gonna be a utter bloodbath if they try to storm fortified positions without armor.
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,140
Ukraine also has had 6 months to build more defences / prepare demolition of infrastructure from that side now that they know they cannot trust Belarus. Plus general degradation of forces from Russia.
 

TrollWhisperer

rectum with utmost that's Corrupted by Vengeance
Member
Oct 13, 2022
595
I just wanted to use my first ever post at Era to say "Slava Ukraini!"

I've been following this thread every day since the invasion, it's really a great source for those of us following the war. I probably won't post much, but thank you all.

Fuck Putin.
 

targethyena

Member
Oct 27, 2017
713
Lukashenko has to know that joining into Putin's mess is basically the any% speedrun of Ceausescu, right? He'll lose the army, then the police, and it will all happen pretty fast. Everyone in Belarus saw the cargo 200 out of the first round of it, and that was professional soldiers of the Russian army.

Unlike Russia, where the military and civilian institutions have a hard time disassociating the country from the regime, that is not really the case in Belarus. The nationalists can - and probably would - want to remove any involvement in the war ASAP if they couldn't prevent it outright before Luka got involved.
Also, can you really start an offensive that is so widely advertised? It's like phoning the Police and saying "I'm going to rob this bank next week"
 

jorf

Member
Sep 29, 2022
305

I mean, it's what they did the first time around.
i thought first time around, they parked their vans near the bank and pulled on their halloween masks and assured the bank they were just hanging around not causing any problems. the police said dont you rob this bank. oh no they assured. the bank said dont come in here. oh no we wont. then they tried to steal the whole country.
 

lunarworks

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,402
Toronto
Well duh, what else do we fight the kangaroos with? See below - this howitzer has two kangaroo kills on it already.

8SfcDa3.png
Not so effective against emus, though.

iGYKJ1z.jpg
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
So this guy is convinced that Russia will try another last push for Kyiv. I disagree, I think they're trying to keep the pressure on the north. But hey, Hitler tried the Battle of the Bulge so who knows what Putler is up to.


View: https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1581215090489012224

View: https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1580967012196839425

Going to add to this that with all the ammunition we've seen being loaded towards Russia for the past couple months plus the recent mass transfers of tanks, if Belarus did decide to "attack", it would be probably with limited artillery and limited heavy armor, which would be a straight up massacre. Those light AFVs would just be torn apart by mines and infantry AT ambushes.
 

Buckle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
41,380

Hopefully this dude has a large target on his back.

He's had it a long time coming.
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,654
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎

Lukashenko has to know that joining into Putin's mess is basically the any% speedrun of Ceausescu, right? He'll lose the army, then the police, and it will all happen pretty fast. Everyone in Belarus saw the cargo 200 out of the first round of it, and that was professional soldiers of the Russian army.

Unlike Russia, where the military and civilian institutions have a hard time disassociating the country from the regime, that is not really the case in Belarus. The nationalists can - and probably would - want to remove any involvement in the war ASAP if they couldn't prevent it outright before Luka got involved.

It really could be just security guarantees for Lukashenka from Russia if something happen within Belarus. Like "we take your tanks, ammo and equipment and in return will send some troops to keep your calm".

And consider this as well:


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JANEMORIS_/status/1580933862376382464
reform.by

КГБ запустил фальшивый план «Перамога»

В Беларуси введен режим контртеррористической операции и началась скрытая мобилизация. Эти новости всполошили общественность. Что стало причиной их появления, и с кем на самом деле сражаются беларусские власти? Вчера «Наша ніва» опубликовала материал, в котором со ссылкой на несколько не связанны
It is likely that the rumors about "hidden" mobilization and Vladimir Makei's statements about the introduction of the counter-terrorist operation, along with false reports about the start of the plan, were intended by the special services to provoke potential participants in the "Peramoha" to active operations. To force them to come out of the shadows and take some steps. That, in turn, was to help to uncover and detain those who had anything to do with the plan.


Another reason is just money. It's already clear that Kremlin has troubles to host all those mobilised soldiers within Russia, their infrastructure is just not ready for that. At the same time, Belarus kept all that from USSR era and it's still in a good state (compared to Russia).
 

SFLUFAN

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,487
Alexandria, VA
ISW analysis for 14 October 2022:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in “about two weeks”—the same time the postponed fall conscription cycle is set to begin. Putin told reporters on Octobe

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his "partial" mobilization will end in "about two weeks"—the same time the postponed fall conscription cycle is set to begin. Putin told reporters on October 14 that "nothing additional is planned" and that "partial mobilization is almost over."[1] As ISW previously reported, Putin announced the postponement of Russia's usual autumn conscription cycle from October 1 to November 1 on September 30, likely because Russia's partial mobilization is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that oversee the semiannual conscription cycle.[2] Putin therefore likely needs to pause or end his partial mobilization to free up bureaucratic resources for conscription. Putin ordered the conscription of 120,000 men for the autumn cycle, 7,000 fewer than in autumn 2021. However, Russia's annexation of occupied Ukraine changes the calculus for conscripts. Russian law generally prohibits the deployment of conscripts abroad. Russian law now considers Russian-occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts to be Russian territory, however, ostensibly legalizing the use of conscripts on the front lines.

Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia's frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023. Putin confirmed on October 14 that mobilized personnel are receiving little training before they are sent to the frontlines. Putin announced that of the 220,000 people who have been mobilized since his September 21 order, 35,000 are already in Russian military units and 16,000 are already in units "involved in combat missions."[3] Putin also outlined the training these mobilized forces allegedly receive: 5-10 days of "initial training," 5-15 days of training with combat units, "then the next stage is already directly in the troops taking part in hostilities." This statement corroborates dozens of anecdotal reports from Russian outlets, milbloggers, and mobilized personnel of untrained, unequipped, and utterly unprepared men being rushed to the frontlines, where some have already surrendered to Ukrainian forces and others have been killed.[4] Even the 10 days of training that mobilized personnel may receive likely does not consist of actual combat preparation for most units; anecdotal reports suggest that men in some units wandered around training grounds without commanding officers, food, or shelter for several days before being shipped to Ukraine.[5] Many would-be trainers and officers were likely injured or killed in Ukraine before mobilization began.[6] Russian training grounds are also likely understaffed, a problem that will likely persist into the autumn conscription cycle. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 14 that Russian military officials in Krasnodar Krai suspended sending mobilized persons to the training grounds in Primorsko-Akhtarsk until November 1 because Russian training grounds are not ready to accommodate, train or comprehensively provide for a large number of personnel.[7]

Ukrainian and Western officials continue to reiterate that they have observed no indicators of preparations for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, despite alarmist reports in the Belarusian information space that President Alexander Lukashenko has introduced a "counter-terrorist operation" regime.[8] Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei gave an interview to Russian outlet Izvestia on October 14 wherein he claimed that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko introduced a "counter-terrorist operation regime" after a meeting with several law enforcement agencies.[9] Makei cited concern that unspecified neighboring states were planning provocations related to seizure of areas of Belarusian territory.[10] This claim was amplified by several Ukrainian, Belarusian, and Russian sources, who claimed that as part of the "counter-terrorist operation regime," Lukashenko began deploying groups of Belarusian forces supplemented by Russian troops.[11] Belarusian opposition outlet Nasha Niva claimed that as part of this regime, Belarusian forces are conducting covert mobilization under the guise of combat readiness checks.[12] However, Lukashenko emphasized in a comment to the press that there has been no introduction of a "counter-terrorist operation regime" and that he has instead introduced a "regime of a heightened terrorist threat."[13]

Despite the contradicting claims of an escalated preparatory regime in Belarus, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told Voice of America that there are no indicators that Belarusian troops are preparing to enter Ukraine.[14] ISW continues to assess that joint Belarusian and Russian forces will not invade Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Russian forces continue to attrit their own combat capabilities as they impale themselves on attempts to capture tiny villages in Donbas and simply do not have the combat-effective mechanized troops available to supplement a Belarusian incursion into northern Ukraine and certainly not to conduct a mechanized drive on Kyiv. As ISW has previously reported, Lukashenko remains unlikely to enter the war on Russia's behalf due to the domestic risks this would pose for the continued viability of his regime, as well as the low quality of Belarusian Armed Forces.[15] Russian President Vladimir Putin is more likely weaponizing concerns over Belarusian involvement in the war to pin Ukrainian troops against the northern Ukraine-Belarus border.

Russian authorities are continuing to engage in "Russification" social programming schemes that target Ukrainian children. A local news outlet from Russia's Novosibirsk Oblast reported on October 13 that 24 orphans from Luhansk Oblast arrived in Novosibirsk for placement with Russian foster families.[16] Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov similarly reported that Russian occupation authorities in Melitopol and other occupied regions are deporting Ukrainian children to Russian-occupied Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Tula and Volgograd Oblasts under the guise of "children's trips" and "further education" programs.[17] As ISW has previously reported, such forced deportations of Ukrainian children to Russia and Russian-occupied territory may constitute violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.[18] Occupation authorities in Russian-occupied Mariupol are also reportedly pressuring Ukrainian teenagers to join the "Youth Guard," a children's paramilitary organization that encourages anti-Ukrainian sentiments. Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported on October 14 that uniformed members of the Youth Guard visited a Ukrainian school and gave children one week to consider joining the group.[19] The coerced engagement of Ukrainian children in youth militarization programs fits into wider Russification schemes intended to erase Ukrainian identity in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on October 14 that there is currently no additional need for further massive strikes against Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russian forces struck 22 of their 29 intended targets and that there are now unspecified "other tasks" for Russian forces to accomplish.[20] Putin's statement was likely aimed at mitigating informational backlash among pro-war milbloggers who oppose curtailing the costly missile campaign; Russian milbloggers had largely praised the resumption of strikes against Ukrainian cities but warned that a short campaign would be ineffective. Putin's statement supports ISW's previous assessment that Putin knew he would not be able to sustain high-intensity missiles strikes for a long time due to a dwindling arsenal of high-precision missiles.[21] Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov claimed on October 14 that Russian forces have 609 high-precision missiles left from the pre-war stockpile of 1,844.[22] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued cruise missile, aviation, kamikaze drone, and anti-aircraft missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia City, Mykolaiv City, and other areas in Mykolaiv Oblast on October 14.[23] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on October 14 that Russian forces targeted Ukrainian command and control elements and energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts with sea-based missiles.[24] These reports demonstrate a lower tempo of strikes than the 84 cruise missile strikes reported on October 10.[25]

A prominent Russian milblogger accused unspecified senior officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of preparing to censor Russian milbloggers on October 14. Prominent Russian milblogger Semyon Pegov (employed by Telegram channel WarGonzo) accused "individual generals and military commanders" of developing a "hitlist" of Russian milbloggers that the MoD seeks to criminally prosecute for "discrediting" the Russian MoD's activity and the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.[26] Russian news aggregator Mash reported on October 14 that Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov personally signed an order instructing Russian state media censor Roskomnadzor to investigate prominent Russian milbloggers Igor Girkin (also known as Igor Strelkov), Semyon Pegov (WarGonzo), Yuri Podolyaka, Vladlen Tatarsky, Sergey Mardan, Igor Dimitriev, Kristina Potupchik, and authors of the Telegram channels GreyZone and Rybar. Unspecified Russian authorities detained the manager of several milblogger Telegram channels linked to Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on October 5.[27] Moscow police previously arrested and released Pegov under unusual circumstances (reportedly for drunkenly threatening a hotel administrator) in Moscow on September 2.[28] The situation will likely become clearer in the coming days. A key indicator for the status of a crackdown on Russian milbloggers will be any status update from former Russian militant commander and nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin. Girkin has not posted since October 10—a significant change in his behavior given that he usually posts multiple times daily.[29]

There has been no official confirmation of an investigation or prosecution of these milbloggers as of October 14. Senior Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan responded to Pegov's claim on October 14 and implied that prosecuting military bloggers is not only a bad idea but impossible to implement.[30] Many milbloggers expressed outrage at the prospect that elements of the Russian government would seek to censor ardent patriots who seek to hold the MoD accountable and expressed hopes that "rumors" about the milblogger hitlist are untrue.[31] The interests of the Kremlin do not intrinsically align with the MoD in this situation: Putin has overtly courted the support of the milblogger community in recent months, as ISW has extensively covered, and has used the milbloggers to frame senior MoD officials and the MoD as a whole as possible scapegoats for military failures in Ukraine.[32] Nor did the milbloggers blame the Kremlin for the alleged hitlist; Pegov emphasized that this sort of alleged censorship was likely not Putin's intention when he opened dialogue with milbloggers in June and called for reporters and journalists to tell the truth about the "special military operation."[33]

Key Takeaways
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his "partial" mobilization will end in "about two weeks"—likely to free up bureaucratic bandwidth for the normal autumn conscription cycle that will begin on November 1.
  • Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia's frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023.
  • Ukrainian and Western officials continue to reiterate that they have observed no indicators of preparations for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, despite alarmist reports in the Belarusian information space that President Alexander Lukashenko has introduced a "counter-terrorist operation" regime.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Octo.ber 14 that there is currently no additional need for further massive strikes against Ukraine.
  • Russian authorities are continuing to engage in "Russification" social programming schemes that target Ukrainian children.
  • A prominent Russian milblogger accused unspecified senior officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of preparing to censor Russian milbloggers on October 14, but there is no official confirmation of an investigation or prosecution of these milbloggers.
  • Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeast Kharkiv Oblast east of Kupyansk.
  • Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast in order to regain lost positions.
  • Russian troops continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and Donetsk City.
  • Russian authorities expressed increasing concern over Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear logistics lines in southern Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian occupation authorities are continuing to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) through strengthened security measures amid negotiations to establish a nuclear safety and protective zone at the plant.
  • Russian officials continued to brand their movement of populations out of Kherson Oblast as recreational "humanitarian trips" rather than evacuations.

DraftUkraineCoTOctober14,2022.png
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,520
FIN
UAF again seems to be prioritizing territorial defense for fighter jets instead of running front shorties. Targets have just gotten smaller.


View: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1581259144631554049


Hopefully this dude has a large target on his back.

He's had it a long time coming.

Saw tweet floating around that apparently there is 10k bounty on his head already for having him captured alive.
 

Spesi

Member
Apr 26, 2022
754
Finland
Some poll results from Finland's biggest newspaper regarding Ukraine. Translations listed before the pic:

Opinions about the war in Ukraine

Answers

Fully agree
Partially agree
No opinion
Partially disagree
Fully disagree

1) Finland cannot normalize it's relations with Russia as long as Putin is ruling
2) Only way to end the war is to kick Russian troops out from Ukraine
3) Finland & western countries should give Ukraine more powerful weapons
4) Ukraine should take into EU asap
5) Ukraine should take into Nato asap
6) Ukraine should find a way to negotiate a peace with Russia (to end the war)
7) Nato should announce s no fly zone, even if it would mean a possible conflict between Nato's & Russia's air forces
8) Russia has the right to merge parts of Ukraine to itself


View: https://i.imgur.com/V2IqUN9.png
Source: Helsingin Sanomat

It would be interesting to see similar polls from other countries, if possible.

Edit: link to the pic changed, thx Tovarisc !
 
Last edited:

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,520
FIN
Some poll results from Finland's biggest newspaper regarding Ukraine. Translations listed before the pic:

For some reason I can see the photo only when I quote your post, was about to ask if you forgot to add results pic.

Just me or others having same?

In case others have same....


V2IqUN9.png


Thanks, was just about to edit the pic. It worked fine in the preview, noticed it afterwards..

Huh, okay. ERA being weird, I guess.
 

Binabik15

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,681
If they start a push it would be mostly belarussian infantry + mobiks running into fortified ukrainian positions. Belarus has been giving their tanks to russia so they probably won't have much armor left and it's gonna be a utter bloodbath if they try to storm fortified positions without armor.

Let them die. Err, try. Anything that helps with a collapse of the Russian imperialist ambitions.
 

thewienke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,145
Some poll results from Finland's biggest newspaper regarding Ukraine. Translations listed before the pic:

Opinions about the war in Ukraine

Answers

Fully agree
Partially agree
No opinion
Partially disagree
Fully disagree

1) Finland cannot normalize it's relations with Russia as long as Putin is ruling
2) Only way to end the war is to kick Russian troops out from Ukraine
3) Finland & western countries should give Ukraine more powerful weapons
4) Ukraine should take into EU asap
5) Ukraine should take into Nato asap
6) Ukraine should find a way to negotiate a peace with Russia (to end the war)
7) Nato should announce s no fly zone, even if it would mean a possible conflict between Nato's & Russia's air forces
8) Russia has the right to merge parts of Ukraine to itself


View: https://i.imgur.com/V2IqUN9.png
Source: Helsingin Sanomat

It would be interesting to see similar polls from other countries, if possible.

Edit: link to the pic changed, thx Tovarisc !


Would be interesting to know what percentage of Finland are Russian for reference. That last question has me thinking at least 2-3%.
 

tootsi666

Member
Dec 13, 2018
233
Would be interesting to know what percentage of Finland are Russian for reference. That last question has me thinking at least 2-3%.
It's the third most common native language with ~1.5% of the population.
Edit. Finland has had a significant population siding with Russian interests since... forever, so the results of the poll are far better than I expected.
 
Last edited:
Norway detains Russian man with 2 drones near Arctic

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,520
FIN

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,549
It really could be just security guarantees for Lukashenka from Russia if something happen within Belarus. Like "we take your tanks, ammo and equipment and in return will send some troops to keep your calm".

This seems right to me. We've repeatedly seen that Luka doesn't want his army getting wrecked in Ukraine. But he's so in debt to Putin that Russia forced him to give up Belarus's reserve armor and artillery and are covering for that with a bunch of conscripts to keep the population in line.
 

15SagittaeB

Member
Feb 12, 2022
931
I don't understand. Who made what here?

Without understanding Russian or Ukrainian my read on the situation is that Russians used that vehicle to shoot a propaganda video, but it broke down during the shoot and the AFU recently captured it still sporting that "to Berlin" slogan and still stuck at what seems to be a few meters from the place of the shoot.

But maybe I'm totally mistaken there.
 

thewienke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,145
It's the third most common native language with ~1.5% of the population.
Edit. Finland has had a significant population siding with Russian interests since... forever, so the results of the poll are far better than I expected.

Yeah I figured that probably ~50% of native Russian speakers might support this fuckery. Have to think a lot of them have ties with St Petersburg which, to my knowledge, isn't quite as crazy as the rest of Russia.

Then there's probably some amount of "might makes right" imperialists in Finland just like in every other country.

And then whatever amount of people that don't understand the polling questions.
 

jorf

Member
Sep 29, 2022
305
Without understanding Russian or Ukrainian my read on the situation is that Russians used that vehicle to shoot a propaganda video, but it broke down during the shoot and the AFU recently captured it still sporting that "to Berlin" slogan and still stuck at what seems to be a few meters from the place of the shoot.

But maybe I'm totally mistaken there.
That's what I was wondering. Since Rob Lee posted the second one but the light is so similar and the stuffed animal is still on the front
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,520
FIN
Why would Russia be doing recon in Norway? Doesn't compute for me.

Even if it was some curious Ivan genuinely being just tourist and taking shots of "cool shit" these aren't really days to be seen as surveilling energy infrastructure and military outposts in border regions.

But it's pretty normal for both sides to gather information about deployed assets. West just has benefit of powerful satellite coverage. Something Russia doesn't have.
 

jorf

Member
Sep 29, 2022
305
Why would Russia be doing recon in Norway? Doesn't compute for me.
Why would a shady country at war send spies to look at other major infrastructure on the continent?

Putin loves asymmetrical battlefields. Even if this guy was supposed to get caught, it's a way of saying hey Europe. Look what I can do.