Forerunner

Resetufologist
The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
14,984
www.nbcnews.com

Russia's 'brazen' and intensifying sabotage campaign across Europe

Vladimir Putin is trying to undermine Western support for Ukraine, according to U.S. and European officials. “Russia is definitely at war with the West,” said an analyst.

Russia is conducting a sabotage campaign across Europe in an increasingly aggressive effort by President Vladimir Putin to undermine Western support for Ukraine, seeking to damage railways, military bases and other sites used to supply arms to Kyiv, U.S. and European officials say.

The attempted sabotage includes an alleged Russian-backed arson attack on a Ukrainian-linked warehouse in the United Kingdom, a plot to bomb or set fire to military bases in Germany, attempts to hack and disrupt Europe's railway signal network and the jamming of GPS systems for civil aviation, according to European and British authorities.

The physical sabotage campaign is part of a broader strategy that includes a flood of Russian propaganda and disinformation, increased espionage by Moscow and efforts to exert political influence in Europe to sow doubts about Ukraine's military prospects and divisions within the NATO alliance, according to Western officials and regional analysts.

German officials announced this month that they had uncovered an elaborate hacking campaign by Russian military intelligence operatives that penetrated the email accounts of the country's Social Democratic party headquarters, the leading party in the country's governing coalition. The hacking effort also targeted German companies in the defense and aerospace industries.

Beyond Germany, Russia has staged thousands of cyberattacks on Czech and European railways, including hacking into signals and ticketing services, according to a Czech official. The Financial Times first reported the attacks and the wider sabotage threat.

So far, there is no indication Russia has managed to seriously disrupt the supply of weapons, ammunition or other aid to Ukraine through sabotage, a Biden administration official said. But they warned that physical attacks in Europe represented a more aggressive approach and that Russia was "crossing new lines."

"There is a much broader pattern of Russian malign activity across Europe," said James Cleverly, the British home secretary, in remarks in the House of Commons this week.

He said Russia's activity ranged from plans to damage military aid bound for Ukraine in Germany and Poland, conduct espionage in Bulgaria and Italy and mount disinformation campaigns to influence the outcome of European Union elections in June.

U.K. prosecutors have accused a British man, Dylan Earl, 20, of masterminding an arson plot on a Ukraine-linked commercial property in March after allegedly being recruited as a Russian spy. Four other suspects have been charged in connection with the case.

In Germany, authorities have accused two German-Russian nationals of planning to target military and logistical sites, including U.S. military bases, on behalf of Russia's intelligence services.

Biden administration officials say they are trying to expose and halt the Russian operations. "We are prioritizing efforts along with our allies to track these Russian activities, disrupt and expose them," an administration official said, adding that "there have been significant successful European law enforcement efforts in recent months."

Last month, NBC News reported how some pro-Donald Trump Republicans in the Senate and House have parroted Russian propaganda, including false claims that Ukrainian leaders are buying luxury yachts.

Other Republicans have decried the practice. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Puck News he thinks "Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States, unfortunately, and it's infected a good chunk of my party's base."

European officials are concerned that similar Russian propaganda campaigns are being conducted in advance of next month's European Union parliamentary elections to boost far-right parties that oppose arming Ukraine.

Moscow's primary goal in its information campaign in European societies is to undermine popular support for assistance to Ukraine, according to E.U. officials.
 

ErichWK

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,598
Sandy Eggo
Between this and their ongoing Disinformation campaigns they have been learning and evolving for the past ten year, Putin is gonna try everything to retain power. I really hope Ukraine holds. It's going to be absolutely devastating for the world if it falls.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,716
Seattle
Looks like some in the west are finally taking notice.

This is a war with the west


View: https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1790087360631156761?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA


TALLINN — The government of Estonia is "seriously" discussing the possibility of sending troops into western Ukraine to take over non-direct combat, "rear" roles from Ukrainian forces in order to free them up to fight on the front, Tallinn's national security advisor to the president told Breaking Defense.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,569
the Netherlands
And unfortunately even if such attacks are carried out, I doubt our governments will care unless they cause mass casualties. Please, just fucking do the sane thing already and give Ukraine anything we can reasonably give them. Start shooting down Russian drones and missiles over western Ukraine, if we can shoot down Iranian drones and missiles over Iraq, Syria and Jordan there's no reason we can't do that.
 

Buckle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
41,447
Its amazing how even after everything Russia has done, countries are desperate to just go back to normal and let the tumor get even bigger.

Until we as countries actually deal with Russia like its a real problem instead of only going half assed and grousing about how problems at home are more important, its only going to get worse.

Men like Putin are a cancer and they need to be cut out of Europe before they kill it.
 

Clowns

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,899

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,760
If their idea of escalation management is to think about sending troops to stand around and maybe do some random things, then fuck managing escalation. The West is not doing enough.
I mean all Putin has to do is mention nuclear weapons and half of europes politics are shitting their pants so chances of any intervention are close to zero.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,716
Seattle
I mean all Putin has to do is mention nuclear weapons and half of europes politics are shitting their pants so chances of any intervention are close to zero.

I understand the fear, but the west has crossed every single one of his red lines and he hasn't done a thing. I want to say either France or Poland say that the west needs to maintain its strategic ambiguity. And they are right.
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,490
I understand the fear, but the west has crossed every single one of his red lines and he hasn't done a thing. I want to say either France or Poland say that the west needs to maintain its strategic ambiguity. And they are right.

I think there is a difference between the West supplying different weapons and actually putting boots on the ground. There's a reason the West hasn't done it already. They believe Putin will do something about it.
 

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,298
The only thing the West's "escalation management" has accomplished is embolden Russia to be more and more brazen.

We're rapidly approaching the point where active counter-sabotage inside Russia proper is appropriate and warranted.
 

Addie

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,901
DFW
I think there is a difference between the West supplying different weapons and actually putting boots on the ground. There's a reason the West hasn't done it already. They believe Putin will do something about it.
This is 100% accurate. The operative question is whether Putin believes he's in an international armed conflict with the US or any NATO country. Despite some saber-rattling, the answer so far is "no."

As soon as it becomes "yes," all bets are off and Putin can target and kill any lawful combatant. Someone might retort, "Why do we care? Putin violates international law all the time—hence both Ukraine invasions."

And the rejoinder is, things become a lot more boxed in if Putin attacks US troops in Poland.
 

t67443

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,951
Only reason the west hasn't put boots on the ground is because opposition parties will use it as a rallying cry when those soldiers die. It will lead to the party in power that sends the troops to die as a traitor or whatever. That is a bigger fear for more politicians compared to Russia's rusted missle silo doors that may or may not open when they press the button.
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,490

Because boots on the ground is very different than supplying weapons.

This is 100% accurate. The operative question is whether Putin believes he's in an international armed conflict with the US or any NATO country. Despite some saber-rattling, the answer so far is "no."

As soon as it becomes "yes," all bets are off and Putin can target and kill any lawful combatant. Someone might retort, "Why do we care? Putin violates international law all the time—hence both Ukraine invasions."

And the rejoinder is, things become a lot more boxed in if Putin attacks US troops in Poland.

Exactly. If the West thought Putin's threats weren't credible in that regard, I'd imagine we'd see boots on the ground in some form already.

Only reason the west hasn't put boots on the ground is because opposition parties will use it as a rallying cry when those soldiers die. It will lead to the party in power that sends the troops to die as a traitor or whatever. That is a bigger fear for more politicians compared to Russia's rusted missle silo doors that may or may not open when they press the button.

That's not the only reason.
 

Netherscourge

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,085
Ukraine needs more than just weapons.

They need troops. LOTS of troops.

Sooner or later European countries are going to have to get soldiers into Ukraine to help recover the stolen territory.

Ukraine does not have enough troops on their own to do it.
 

iamdelirium

Member
Nov 25, 2017
406
Because boots on the ground is very different than supplying weapons.
Says who? The same country that has threaten nuclear war in the links I gave? Or it this another Russia's final warning?

Exactly. If the West thought Putin's threats weren't credible in that regard, I'd imagine we'd see boots on the ground in some form already.

That's not the only reason.
The US and Western Europe have several reasons for not putting boots on the ground. Iraq and Afghanistan have soured appetites for foreign intervention. No politician is going to win an election by putting boots on the ground.
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,490
Says who? The same country that has threaten nuclear war in the links I gave? Or it this another Russia's final warning?

Says literally everyone who has been following this war? It's an obvious escalation even if one agrees it should happen.

The US and Western Europe have several reasons for not putting boots on the ground. Iraq and Afghanistan have soured appetites for foreign intervention. No politician is going to win an election by putting boots on the ground.

While, yes, there are political considerations, I have little doubt that by now NATO would have intervened in some form if nuclear weapons weren't involved.
 

iamdelirium

Member
Nov 25, 2017
406
Says literally everyone who has been following this war? It's an obvious escalation even if one agrees it should happen.

While, yes, there are political considerations, I have little doubt that by now NATO would have intervened in some form if nuclear weapons weren't involved.
I'm not disagreeing that is isn't an "escalation" but again, Russia has shown that when countries do cross whatever red line they state, they've done _nothing_. Show me an article where they actually did something because of a red line that was broken. The only obstacles are the imagined ones by Western politicians afraid of "escalation". By doing so, they have cost thousands of Ukrainian lives to be lost.

Not mention is several articles mentioning that US and other countries special forces are already in Ukraine.

Again, the US said it wouldn't do a lot of things and crossed multiple Russian red lines already. They've done nothing about it. It's so comical that even Wikipedia has an article on this subject.
 

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,490
I'm not disagreeing that is isn't an "escalation" but again, Russia has shown that when countries do cross whatever red line they state, they've done _nothing_. Show me an article where they actually did something because of a red line that was broken. The only obstacles are the imagined ones by Western politicians afraid of "escalation". By doing so, they have cost thousands of Ukrainian lives to be lost.

Not mention is several articles mentioning that US and other countries special forces are already in Ukraine.

Again, the US said it wouldn't do a lot of things and crossed multiple Russian red lines already. They've done nothing about it. It's so comical that even Wikipedia has an article on this subject.

No. There are actual obstacles otherwise they would have done so already.

Special Forces not engaged in fighting is far different than troops engaged in fighting Russian forces.

Yes, Russia is always going to sabre rattle over every little thing but supplying weapons is far different than having NATO forces actively engaging Russian forces. It makes no sense to say it won't be different when everything is telling us it is.
 

iamdelirium

Member
Nov 25, 2017
406
No. There are actual obstacles otherwise they would have done so already.

Special Forces not engaged in fighting is far different than troops engaged in fighting Russian forces.

Yes, Russia is always going to sabre rattle over every little thing but supplying weapons is far different than having NATO forces actively engaging Russian forces. It makes no sense to say it won't be different when everything is telling us it is.
I ask you to give me what obstacles are those? The Kremlin in the second article mentioned that British forces are helping Ukraine fire weapons into Russian military positions. How is that not active engaging forces? Do you want them manning the trenches or something?

I've shown that Russia has threaten several times with red lines, which Ukraine's allies have crossed and have no consequences. All these obstacles that might exist are political ones.
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,551
FIN
Ukraine needs more than just weapons.

They need troops. LOTS of troops.

Sooner or later European countries are going to have to get soldiers into Ukraine to help recover the stolen territory.

Ukraine does not have enough troops on their own to do it.

Ukraine hasn't even done national mobilisation. Something that would help them with their current issues with manpower, and it needed to be done 6+ months ago to give time for training. I don't see many European countries sending their militaries into Ukraine if Ukraine itself isn't willing to mobilise.
 

ArcLyte

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,088
It's obvious that Putin is provoking a retaliation from NATO and will use that as an excuse to march troops to the Finland or Poland border. He's got to keep up appearances especially at the beginning of his new term, and has to enforce the state media position that Russia is at constant threat of provocation and invasion by the West.
 

Addie

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,901
DFW
I ask you to give me what obstacles are those? The Kremlin in the second article mentioned that British forces are helping Ukraine fire weapons into Russian military positions. How is that not active engaging forces? Do you want them manning the trenches or something?

I've shown that Russia has threaten several times with red lines, which Ukraine's allies have crossed and have no consequences. All these obstacles that might exist are political ones.
OK, so I always frontload caveats: I'm not trying to gotcha you. This isn't a "but what if you're wrong?" response, or, "Okay, then why aren't you enlisting?" I'm not about that.

The West is deliberately trying to thread the needle and push that envelope into supporting Ukraine as much as possible without prompting Putin to declare that we're now at war, and so far it's succeeding; and this is in large part because the greater threat is China, and the idea of being dragged into a protracted conflict with Russia would only benefit Beijing. Of course the West is self-interested in this regard.

As soon as Russia takes British or American blood in a way that's adopted by the Kremlin (i.e., it's not an accident or something), things change fast. No one wants that; the world doesn't want that. The very last thing the world wants or needs is a boxed-in Vladimir Putin, on the verge of death (just talking statistics here -- he's not a spring chicken), without any inhibitions.

Are we really betting that the heir to Stanislav Petrov exists today? They might, for sure -- but that's not a winning bet.
 
Nov 8, 2017
13,366
I ask you to give me what obstacles are those? The Kremlin in the second article mentioned that British forces are helping Ukraine fire weapons into Russian military positions. How is that not active engaging forces? Do you want them manning the trenches or something?

I've shown that Russia has threaten several times with red lines, which Ukraine's allies have crossed and have no consequences. All these obstacles that might exist are political ones.


I do think people have a far too rigid understanding of escalation, war and conflict in general. I often liken the trap people fall into about it to video game logic - if you do X behaviour, a state of war is triggered by the game mechanics, as an automatic and unavoidable consequence of the systems. It's like in civilization, you attack a town, war happens. But in real life a war is one rung on a conflict continuum, and it's also something that society enters consciously and requires mutual participation. If you do not resist, you may be attacked, or perhaps even occupied but you did not really fight a war. When America violates a country's airspace or bombs suspected terrorists in a country, a war only happens if the people inside that country fight back in a sustained way. When Russia annexes Crimea, a war only happens if the Ukrainians fight back. When Russian proxies sieze control of towns in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukraine did fight back, but acted as though it were not in a war with Russia proper - they did not launch raids across the border, they did not seize control of Crimea, and they only fought Russians (who did indeed enter the country in force after the initial failure) strictly on the terms set by the complete fable Russia spun.

And it's not as if we don't have a lot of experience with grey areas. Russian pilots had dogfights with Americans in the cold war. How many unavowed operations have the Russians and Americans and Chinese undertaken in the 20th and 21st centuries when other powers were in some conflict?

The most relevant factor is what means the aggrieved party has to resist whatever action they oppose, and whether they would stand to gain or lose by taking that action.

Russian foreign policy is entirly formulated around abusing the ambiguities on the escalation ladder to it's favour exclusively, taking advantage of the fears and uncertainties of their opponents, and promoting those fears through it's own diplomacy, public propaganda and subversive activity.

This is 100% accurate. The operative question is whether Putin believes he's in an international armed conflict with the US or any NATO country. Despite some saber-rattling, the answer so far is "no."

As soon as it becomes "yes," all bets are off and Putin can target and kill any lawful combatant. Someone might retort, "Why do we care? Putin violates international law all the time—hence both Ukraine invasions."

And the rejoinder is, things become a lot more boxed in if Putin attacks US troops in Poland.

Expanding on what I'm saying above, a Russian strike hitting hypothetical French Foreign Leigonnaires manning an AA battery in Lviv only expands into a wider war if the French choose to allow it to. This type of danger already exists as advisors, diplomats and and special forces are in the country already to some small extent.

The key point I would make here is that Russia is the party with by far the most to lose by drawing other countries into the war more fully. So the emergence of a Brigade sized expedition of French soldiers occupying border checkpoints and manning defensive stations in Western Ukraine is supremely unlikely to see a Russian response beyond the wailing and moaning of it's diplomats.

Launching strikes into French territory, assuming they even had the means to do this, would result in the whole French Army, Navy and Air Force appearing instead of 1 brigade of rear line troops. So they obviously won't do that.

Firing a nuclear weapon would result in the French nuclear arsenal returning the favour. So they obviously won't do that.

The only serious options they have outside of complaining are attempting to accelerate what they are already doing to France - i.e. cyber war, propaganda, perhaps a sabotage team they can disavow to cause minor chaos.

The views you're expressing seem roughly in line with the current establishment, i.e. prioritizing caution above all, and I do understand it, but when somebody finally does send some troops to do rear line duties, it's going to go exactly like every single other step on the ladder did - Russians complain, but do not have the power to do anything that would help them.
 
Last edited:

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,490
Expanding on what I'm saying above, a Russian strike hitting hypothetical French Foreign Leigonnaires manning an AA battery in Lviv only expands into a wider war if the French choose to allow it to. This type of danger already exists as advisors, diplomats and and special forces are in the country already to some small extent.

And it may do so if the French public would want it which could lead to further spiraling.

I ask you to give me what obstacles are those? The Kremlin in the second article mentioned that British forces are helping Ukraine fire weapons into Russian military positions. How is that not active engaging forces? Do you want them manning the trenches or something?

I've shown that Russia has threaten several times with red lines, which Ukraine's allies have crossed and have no consequences. All these obstacles that might exist are political ones.

Advisors are not the same as a British soldier fighting a Russian soldier. Why? Don't ask me. Countries have decided that this is the game they can play without direct reprisals. It's not about what I want.

At a certain point, there will be consequences. Just as Russia is finding out after getting away with shit for a long time.
 

PleaseBeKind

Member
Oct 31, 2023
379
Im amazed how dangerous an otherwise obsolete "super power" can be. Looks like dirty tricks can go a long way despite their inferior technology and limited humanpower.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,050
It's infuriating how passive and unprepared the Western Europe continues to be versus the Russian threat. And it's not only sabotages and war threaten on Eastern Europe, Russia is actively financing the downfall of democracy in a lot of the western countries and it kind of works and there's a real possibility (even if still small) of a fascist future across Europe and yet Russia is still treated with kid gloves. So frustrating.
 

HarryHengst

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,073
It's infuriating how passive and unprepared the Western Europe continues to be versus the Russian threat. And it's not only sabotages and war threaten on Eastern Europe, Russia is actively financing the downfall of democracy in a lot of the western countries and it kind of works and there's a real possibility (even if still small) of a fascist future across Europe and yet Russia is still treated with kid gloves. So frustrating.
Its because in most countries the conservative right holds most of the power, and these so-called moderates see no fundamental problem with fascism.
 

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,467
Scotland
A quick reminder that the Russian GRU intelligence service was likely behind an explosion at a Czech ammo depot a number of years back that killed two people.

And the only death from the Salisbury nerve agent poisoning case was a British woman that picked up a carelessly discarded nerve agent disguised in a perfume bottle.

This campaign has already claimed lives.
 

Tomasoares

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,707
Russia has been in war against Nato for a few years already, taking advantage of lack of action from it but especially EU actors.
He's not going to stop at Ukraine as he don't even consider it as an autonomous country.

Also, as long as Nato inaction continues, he's going to take every advantage to get more leverage over EU, being more ambitious over Ukraine and indirectly attack over the entire EU, until they just become direct. Putin is also building a strong war logistic pipeline to steadly increase the agression pressure and the cracks are already showing, not for Ukraine only but for EU overally - reluctant to spend more in defense (ammo, equipment and soldiers).

In a 10 years framework, this will only get worse, and the longer EU acts, the worse will be to deal with Putin later on, because EU will have to.
 
Last edited:

Turnscr3w

Member
Jan 16, 2022
5,540
Yup, Russia will definitely intervene in our election to secure a governemnt that can hold it's interest.
 

Mr Coopz

Member
Jul 21, 2019
496
For anyone with more knowledge than me. In the event of troops been sent into Ukraine by western nations wether Combat or non combat and they are killed by Russian hands, how would that country proceed without it spiralling into the worst case scenario ?
 

Tomasoares

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,707
For anyone with more knowledge than me. In the event of troops been sent into Ukraine by western nations wether Combat or non combat and they are killed by Russian hands, how would that country proceed without it spiralling into the worst case scenario ?

Nobody knows, probably retaliation but nukes would be still very very far away from the table of both Nato or Putin's.
 

Lard

Member
Dec 3, 2018
48
I don't think any country sending troops to Ukraine would be surprised to see those troops have fatalities. As long as Russia keeps fighting within Ukraine nothing would change. If russia attacks targets in other countries, those countries/defense pacts could then legally attack russia, which putin would not want as their airforce and navy would be decimated.

Alternatively, just remove the nato stickers from the uniforms and call them "little green men". It worked for Russia in 2014 (and Merkel even awarded them Nordstream 2 for it!!). /s
 

sfedai0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,123
What is the quality of life like in Russia now? It feels like sanctions arent doing jack shit. Is China and India still buying oil? I guess its not likely Russians will ever try to revolt even if their living standards deteriorate.
 

Lard

Member
Dec 3, 2018
48
What is the quality of life like in Russia now? It feels like sanctions arent doing jack shit. Is China and India still buying oil? I guess its not likely Russians will ever try to revolt even if their living standards deteriorate.
We have to give up on the idea that russians will do anything. :(

Life quality in moscow/peter is still alright, the quality for the racial minorities in far east is as bad as it always has been (and the moscovians have never cared about them anyways)
 

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,467
Scotland
What is the quality of life like in Russia now? It feels like sanctions arent doing jack shit. Is China and India still buying oil? I guess its not likely Russians will ever try to revolt even if their living standards deteriorate.

I suspect we're not going to see a revolution any time soon, let me put it that way.

The consensus is however that the Kremlin is nervous about further mobilisations and the change to a war economy impacting folks in the key cities. It's generally understood that the government wants a vaguely patriotic but largely depoliticised population - there's an unwritten pact of "don't get involved in politics and we'll stay out if your business" which is at risk of breaking down if they try and get more people actively involved in the war.
 

Tomasoares

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,707
What is the quality of life like in Russia now? It feels like sanctions arent doing jack shit. Is China and India still buying oil? I guess its not likely Russians will ever try to revolt even if their living standards deteriorate.

Aside from some rebranding due to sanctions, I don't think it has changed much since the beginning of the war.
Most soldiers were already from the army and new mobilisations happened more against minorities/far away from moscow, if not straight-up prisoners and mercenaries as well.

Their economy won't collapse anytime soon, as they are still doing business with many developing countries (India, China, Brazil, a lot of countries from africa) - which, tbh, EU and US aren't doing much engagement to reduce Russia's trade with these countries. (ex: Mercosul x EU trade deal is mostly going to shit due to opposition especially from France)
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,387
looking it up, Estonia's entire active military force is under 8 thousand people.
if this is going to be an effective solution, this would need to be the push to get the ball rolling so larger countries would start participating.
This is what they hope it would achieve. Same as when UK send like 14 Challengers to Ukraine. Alone those didn't really mean much but it made it easier for Germany to give greenlight for Leopards to be sent to Ukraine and also for US to send Abrahams.
 

Rygar 8Bit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,106
Site-15
What is the quality of life like in Russia now? It feels like sanctions arent doing jack shit. Is China and India still buying oil? I guess its not likely Russians will ever try to revolt even if their living standards deteriorate.


View: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789736103898939615

View: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789736818490966263

They are having crazy budget issues because of the sanctions. So much so they had to fire the people in charge of the economy and replace them. It's hurting their war production.