I can understand standing by your president, but I also would think that even the most diehard Trump fans know that there's a strong possibility that the "corrupt" Democrats will remove him from office. There's now less than a year until the US presidential election. It's kind of insane when I think of it that there may be the quickest turnover From the candidate nomination process to the actual election in US history. I mean, do they hold a very quick primary? Is that why we're doing this impeachment "early", as it's been called, to give the Republicans a bit of a help here?
Shouldn’t the Republicans be figuring out their front runner?
- Thread starter Bengraven
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It's not up to the Democrats. The decision is made by the Republican-controlled Senate. There is almost zero chance he is excised from office. Trump is their nominee.
You need to take a second look on where you're getting your news from if you believe Trump is leaving office.
Even if it was a 100% lock that Trump would lose in 2020, he has to be the Republican nominee. To primary him could actually fracture the party, and there is a 0% chance he gets impeached.
The odds of impeachment are low. I won't go so far as to say zero, but it's not likely.
Even on the off chance he was, they would not get a different candidate via vote, rather it would instead fall to Pence as he would still be incumbant.
Even on the off chance he was, they would not get a different candidate via vote, rather it would instead fall to Pence as he would still be incumbant.
The Senate isn't removing him, no matter what the house does.
If something *really* drastic happens, I'm sure they'd just roll with Pence, but that's like a 0.001% chance of Trump being removed
If something *really* drastic happens, I'm sure they'd just roll with Pence, but that's like a 0.001% chance of Trump being removed
Odds of impeachment are 99.9999999%.
Odds of conviction/removal are low.
Gerrymandering doesnt affect Presidential elections unless they start redrawing state lines.
You are correct. I misspoke, but the premise remains.
Not in a million years. They hitched their wagon to Trump a long time ago. They are all in now.
Because he's the first slime ball that lets all those other slime balls show their true colors with no repercussions. Ride or die at this point for those mofos.
You're thinking too far ahead, impeachment hasn't even been put up to vote. This is purely inquiry process
Impeachment doesn't mean a death kneel, and Trump has shown he can weather a lot of controversy
The stock market is still strong so by that token people think the economy is strong. This matters a lot to people, especially late boomers with 401k/pension ties up in the market.
Republicans believe Trump will stay in office (which is likely) or that there will be a literal civil war. There's no "new candidate" plan.
He's incredibly popular among Republican voters and he represents the most prevalent emerging aspects of the party's constituents. There's zero reason to run another candidate from their perspective. He's also polling competitively against the most left-leaning candidates in the states that handed him his electoral college victory in 2016.
Impeachment means nothing for trump. Anyone that would vote him would still vote him. Like he said, he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and still be loved.
" but I also would think that even the most diehard Trump fans know that there's a strong possibility that the "corrupt" Democrats will remove him from office. "
No there isn't. The only way he can be removed from office is if 2/3rds of the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans 53-47, vote in the affirmative to do so. This would require 13 senators to flip, which is basically is basically an impossibility unless some irrefutable bad shit comes out - and even then, it's unlikely they'd get the full 66 needed votes.
Democrats are impeaching knowing full well Trump will not be removed, and that's the point - to run an inquiry to dig up so much bad shit that it will turn voters against him in 2020.
No there isn't. The only way he can be removed from office is if 2/3rds of the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans 53-47, vote in the affirmative to do so. This would require 13 senators to flip, which is basically is basically an impossibility unless some irrefutable bad shit comes out - and even then, it's unlikely they'd get the full 66 needed votes.
Democrats are impeaching knowing full well Trump will not be removed, and that's the point - to run an inquiry to dig up so much bad shit that it will turn voters against him in 2020.
Trump is not going to be impeached and removed from office. He'll likely be impeached by the house, but the senate is not going to vote to remove him.
In the modern era, it's very unusual that an incumbent goes challenged in their party primary. The last time it happened in a US presidential election was probably 1968 with Lyndon Johnson, who was considering not running for re-election anyway and was deeply unpopular with his own party because he was the primary escelator of the Vietnam war. Johnson decided not to run as he approached the New Hampshire primary and it was looking like he'd considerably lose.
Meanwhile, in 2019, Trump is unlikely to even have primaries in most states, the GOP just won't run them. In New Hampshire he's being challenged by Bill Weld, but Weld is not likely to get more than a few percent, maybe 10%, in a primary and he's banking entirely on New Hampshire just to play spoiler for the Trump campaign. I believe Mark Sanford already bowed out of the race (who had a similar strategy), right? Weld is banking on the tradition of New Hampshire being a spoiler for the incumbent, whenever an incumbent has been challenge in New Hampshire, they've gone onto lose the general election (the latest being 1992, when Pat Buchanon won about ~40% of the NH Primary, Bush rolled to the convention but Buchanon's criticism of Bush prior to New Hampshire played spoiler for him in the general election).
*Edit*
Actually, I forgot, Ronald Reagan challenged Gerry Ford in the '76 GOP Primary and took it to the convention.
John Dickerson from the Whistlestop Podcast has a great series of episodes on Reagan, Ford, the '76 primary, '76 general, and Ford's VP choice (ultimately ended up being Bob Dole, but it was a shit show and Reagan arguably lost the nomination because he announced his running mate at the primary, a Liberal Republican from Pennsylvania, which shifted Southern conservative Republicans over to the less popular Gerald Ford):
After Ford beat Reagan at the convention, he invited Reagan to speak *after* his acceptance speech, and Reagan delivered arguably his most memorable speech, which was short, concise, and left delegates feeling like they nominated the wrong candidate.
But Trump isn't being removed from office unless something truly devastating happens in some clear way that signals to Senate Republicans that they have to abandon him. RIght now, there's maybe one or two Senate Republicans that would vote to remove him, maybe Mitt Romney in Utah, but probably not even Romney who will likely say a lot of words and brow beat about how discomforted he is about Trump, but then rally back and say that it's not enough to remove a president, that it's too serious an action for something so inconsequential "As a phone call," which will merely "trouble him." You need at least 20 Republicans, and every Democrat. That's not happening.
In the modern era, it's very unusual that an incumbent goes challenged in their party primary. The last time it happened in a US presidential election was probably 1968 with Lyndon Johnson, who was considering not running for re-election anyway and was deeply unpopular with his own party because he was the primary escelator of the Vietnam war. Johnson decided not to run as he approached the New Hampshire primary and it was looking like he'd considerably lose.
Meanwhile, in 2019, Trump is unlikely to even have primaries in most states, the GOP just won't run them. In New Hampshire he's being challenged by Bill Weld, but Weld is not likely to get more than a few percent, maybe 10%, in a primary and he's banking entirely on New Hampshire just to play spoiler for the Trump campaign. I believe Mark Sanford already bowed out of the race (who had a similar strategy), right? Weld is banking on the tradition of New Hampshire being a spoiler for the incumbent, whenever an incumbent has been challenge in New Hampshire, they've gone onto lose the general election (the latest being 1992, when Pat Buchanon won about ~40% of the NH Primary, Bush rolled to the convention but Buchanon's criticism of Bush prior to New Hampshire played spoiler for him in the general election).
*Edit*
Actually, I forgot, Ronald Reagan challenged Gerry Ford in the '76 GOP Primary and took it to the convention.
John Dickerson from the Whistlestop Podcast has a great series of episodes on Reagan, Ford, the '76 primary, '76 general, and Ford's VP choice (ultimately ended up being Bob Dole, but it was a shit show and Reagan arguably lost the nomination because he announced his running mate at the primary, a Liberal Republican from Pennsylvania, which shifted Southern conservative Republicans over to the less popular Gerald Ford):
After Ford beat Reagan at the convention, he invited Reagan to speak *after* his acceptance speech, and Reagan delivered arguably his most memorable speech, which was short, concise, and left delegates feeling like they nominated the wrong candidate.
But Trump isn't being removed from office unless something truly devastating happens in some clear way that signals to Senate Republicans that they have to abandon him. RIght now, there's maybe one or two Senate Republicans that would vote to remove him, maybe Mitt Romney in Utah, but probably not even Romney who will likely say a lot of words and brow beat about how discomforted he is about Trump, but then rally back and say that it's not enough to remove a president, that it's too serious an action for something so inconsequential "As a phone call," which will merely "trouble him." You need at least 20 Republicans, and every Democrat. That's not happening.
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The echo chamber some people live in is really incredible. I say this as a staunch Liberal; how can anyone, even a die-hard Liberal, believe that Republicans in the Senate will convict Trump given our current knowledge? Unless some absolutely ridiculous crimes are committed with irrefutable evidence, his odds of being convicted at near 0%. Even with crazy crimes and crazy evidence, I don't think we'd ever have high odds.
We we can hope for is that his crimes are made public, with evidence, and it deters enough Republican voters to cause him to lose the 2020 election.
We we can hope for is that his crimes are made public, with evidence, and it deters enough Republican voters to cause him to lose the 2020 election.
You know it's trump. The only thing that would remove him is a health incident that would render him incapable of functioning
There is nearly zero chance that he will be removed from office.
Trump is going anywhere as Republicans are too spineless to remove him from office. The impeachment is important because it's the right thing to do, even though the end results won't amount to much.
"Gerrymandering" doesn't apply to the Electoral College (except in ME and NE.)