No Depth

Member
Oct 27, 2017
18,454
1884475.jpg
 

JaseC64

Enlightened
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,008
Strong Island NY
Damn!

So, we're definitely looking at a $250-300M opening weekend. If it has good enough legs, it could be the first movie since The Rise of Skywalker to gross over $500M domestically.

I guess theaters are officially back. Hopefully this wasn't a fluke.
Why do some of you say "theaters are officially back"‽

There is no way that other movies after NWH have a similar performance outside big franchises. Will Kingsman 3 or whatever it's called make 120m opening 3 days? What about some other films?

I think everyone is currently here on Era looking at Matrix 4 but obviously that one will be on HBO Max day1 so it will impact its sales somewhat. Still. I dont think you can look at Spidey3 performance and forecast all others to go on and be as successful.

Here is my thought. Any movie that has the strength as Spider-Man (like Bond NTTD), will do good. "AA" films will do good and those obscure indie films will likely keep "bombing". But there is no chance theater figures are anything but normal. I dont see it.
 
Feb 9, 2018
2,681
If it has really bad legs it'll hit 500m. A 2X multiplier is like…terrible for the holiday period. Who am I kidding it's bad period.
I just picked $500M as an arbitrary milestone. Each year from 2015 to 2019 there was at least one to three movies that exceeded that milestone. In fact, even when adjusted for ticket price inflation, the 2010s produced more films grossing over $500M than any other decade.

If Spider-Man grosses at least $250M this weekend, it should easily break $600M. It should hit that milestone even if it's as front-loaded as Endgame was. In fact, $700M is probable. Once we get Saturday & Sunday figures in it should give us a better idea of what to expect.


Why do some of you say "theaters are officially back"‽

There is no way that other movies after NWH have a similar performance outside big franchises. Will Kingsman 3 or whatever it's called make 120m opening 3 days? What about some other films?

I think everyone is currently here on Era looking at Matrix 4 but obviously that one will be on HBO Max day1 so it will impact its sales somewhat. Still. I dont think you can look at Spidey3 performance and forecast all others to go on and be as successful.

Here is my thought. Any movie that has the strength as Spider-Man (like Bond NTTD), will do good. "AA" films will do good and those obscure indie films will likely keep "bombing". But there is no chance theater figures are anything but normal. I dont see it.
"Blockbuster" movies, which have increasingly become the lifeblood of cinemas (all of the decline in attendance from 2002 to 2019 came from films below the Top 20 titles of any given year), have been under-performing this year, even ones that weren't put on streaming like all of WB's 2021 lineup. Shang-Chi and Venom 2 were the only ones to surpass $200M domestically since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the 2010s produced more big-grossing blockbusters than any prior decade (even when adjusting for ticket price inflation), with 2019 alone producing ten films to surpass $300M lifetime domestically, two of those films exceeding $500M and one (Endgame) exceeding $800M. While movie theaters survived the months-long closures in 2020, attendance remained lackluster. It was uncertain if another movie would ever hit a huge milestone ever again.

Spider-Man NWH looking to do at least $250M for this weekend (instantly making it the #1 film of the past two calendar years) and likely $600-700M lifetime suggests that audiences are now more inclined to start going back to the theater in pre-pandemic numbers. While it's still not absolutely certain that movie theaters are looking at a full recovery, it is a good sign. We'll have to see how other big tentpole releases (MCU films, Jurassic World 3, Avatar 2, etc.) in 2022 perform to be sure. If we see more and more movies hit big milestones like $300M, $400M, or better, that will indicate that the blockbuster film is still viable and will remain as healthy as they were pre-pandemic. It's likely that there will be continued losses in attendance relative to pre-pandemic levels as audiences continue to focus more and more on the big films, but attendance for the big tentpole releases could fully recover.
 
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Donepalace

Member
Mar 16, 2019
2,628
I just picked $500M as an arbitrary milestone. Each year from 2015 to 2019 there was at least one to three movies that exceeded that milestone. In fact, even when adjusted for ticket price inflation, the 2010s produced more films grossing over $500M than any other decade.

If Spider-Man grosses at least $250M this weekend, it should easily break $600M. It should hit that milestone even if it's as front-loaded as Endgame was. In fact, $700M is probable. Once we get Saturday & Sunday figures in it should give us a better idea of what to expect.



"Blockbuster" movies, which have increasingly become the lifeblood of cinemas (all of the decline in attendance from 2002 to 2019 came from films below the Top 20 titles of any given year), have been under-performing this year, even ones that weren't put on streaming like all of WB's 2021 lineup. Shang-Chi and Venom 2 were the only ones to surpass $200M domestically since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the 2010s produced more big-grossing blockbusters than any prior decade (even when adjusting for ticket price inflation), with 2019 alone producing ten films to surpass $300M lifetime domestically, two of those films exceeding $500M and one (Endgame) exceeding $800M. While movie theaters survived the months-long closures in 2020, attendance remained lackluster. It was uncertain if another movie would ever hit a huge milestone ever again.

Spider-Man NWH looking to do at least $250M for this weekend (instantly making it the #1 film of the past two calendar years) and likely $600-700M lifetime suggests that audiences are now more inclined to start going back to the theater in pre-pandemic numbers. While it's still not absolutely certain that movie theaters are looking at a full recovery, it is a good sign. We'll have to see how other big tentpole releases (MCU films, Jurassic World 3, Avatar 2, etc.) in 2022 perform to be sure. If we see more and more movies hit big milestones like $300M, $400M, or better, that will indicate that the blockbuster film is still viable and will remain as healthy as they were pre-pandemic. It's likely that there will be continued losses in attendance relative to pre-pandemic levels as audiences continue to focus more and more on the big films, but attendance for the big tentpole releases could fully recover.

People will show up if the movie has an event feel to it and this new Spider-Man certainly had it more than any other Spider-Man since at least S3 2007

It also helps the movie is excellent and Word of mouth is spreading

those facts will never change so the figures will easily return to pre pandemic levels imo
 

Zaiven

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Nov 12, 2019
2,193
At some point we are just going to have to accept that this is how things are now. No one can predict when the next wave of COVID will strike. It might be at the height of the traditional cold season in the middle of winter, or it might be smack in the middle of summer, as Delta did. Especially with things like movie releases, which requires months of lead-in and advertising, there is never going to be a "safe" time to go to theaters again. Either you're personally willing to take the risk, or you're not. Either way is fine, but we can't keep asking everyone in society to live in constant fear of COVID forever and ever.
 

bionic77

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,906
I wanted to see this but not going to a theater with the current numbers.

Definitely a theater movie but not worth getting sick.

It was the same for the new Bond movie. I will do the same for this.
 

Richiek

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,063
deadline.com

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Defeats ‘Infinity War’ & Notches 2nd Highest Domestic Opening At The Box Office With $260M

Sony/Marvel's 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' beats 'Avengers: Infinity War' to become the 2nd best opening of all-time at the domestic box office with $260M.

The sequel is $4.7M from overtaking Avengers: Infinity War's $257.698M opening as the second best domestic opening of all-time. Worldwide Spider-Man: No Way Home owns the 3rd best global debut with $587.2M after Avengers: Endgame ($1.22 billion) and Avengers: Infinity War ($640.5M) and that's without China.

Wow, NWH already passed $500 million worldwide.
 

Jeffram

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,952
deadline.com

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Defeats ‘Infinity War’ & Notches 2nd Highest Domestic Opening At The Box Office With $260M

Sony/Marvel's 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' beats 'Avengers: Infinity War' to become the 2nd best opening of all-time at the domestic box office with $260M.



Wow, NWH already passed $500 million worldwide.
Crazy. I heard that the predictions were getting downgraded to 150M closer to the release. Don't know what these analysts were thinking.
 

Spinluck

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
28,719
Chicago
deadline.com

‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ Defeats ‘Infinity War’ & Notches 2nd Highest Domestic Opening At The Box Office With $260M

Sony/Marvel's 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' beats 'Avengers: Infinity War' to become the 2nd best opening of all-time at the domestic box office with $260M.

Wow, NWH already passed $500 million worldwide.

Lol. We're definitely getting more MCU Spidey.

And Sony is totally making that Spider-Man vs Venom movie. Easy money for them on both projects.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670

Rainy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,861
Revised estimates as actuals are coming in is that its going to beat Infinity War OW.

 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
"Are we getting more Spiderman in the MCU?"

Marvel and Sony : LOL yes

"Are we getting Spidey vs Venom?"

Marvel and Sony : I like money yes.
 

Bob Beat

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,916
Thank you, ScarJo. I wish they were launching day and date on streaming but money talks.

Without you, none of this would be possible.

/
 
Oct 30, 2017
3,629
Thank you, ScarJo. I wish they were launching day and date on streaming but money talks.

Without you, none of this would be possible.

/

I know its in jest, but Disney would have to have paid Sony out the ass for that to happen.

Disney can't even get the first 2 MCU movies on Disney+ until the streaming rights were renegoiated and they still have to wait it out and it's been over 2 years since Far From Home released.
 
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Prine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,724
Saw it yesterday, it was ok, solid ending and more memorable then the other MCU Spidey's. Being the first big MCU film I was expecting a big opening, but this is a bit surprising.