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reKon

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Oct 25, 2017
14,004
Glad I got some NVDA at a cheap price, but wish I bought more. That said I bought a bunch of AMD in the $10-$15 range so can't complain too much.
It's hard to know how to get out of stocks that have huge gains, my strategy with AMD is to slowly sell out of it over time and put it into index funds, but it's tempting to hang onto when you have such a big winner. Big hit on taxes too with those types of gains, which is another consideration.
Absolutely nothing wrong with slowly selling AMD.

I have to decide myself if/when I actually sell any NVDA/AMD/TSM/ASML. It will ultimately depend on what my overall portfolio looks like (if at the time, the current valuation of my entire portfolio is at a level where early retirement is possible much earlier, I would strongly consider selling certain positions in tech and crypto to lock in those gains).
 

pioneer

Member
May 31, 2022
4,519
Does anyone do mostly ETF investing. I think I'm done with individual stocks unless I buy more of what i own. Thinking of selling some stuff and the rest going into multiple Sp500 total market index QQQ and i really like SMH semi conductor instead of trying to pick single stocks at this point. I have my big winners i think for the long haul. I own Nvidia MS Amazon Visa Facebook and Tesla so I think I'm good 🙂 never did get any Google at any point. Probably the only one I've wanted 🤷🏻‍♂️

After a couple years of… let's say learning lessons, I sold all my individual stocks to rotate into index funds. I bought a lot of QQQ at the time (cost basis of $300 feels good), now I put as much into VOO as I can. And my Roth is 100% a target date fund. About 5% of my portfolio is individual stocks now, and I don't plan to increase that beyond 10%. You definitely miss out on some potential investing this way, but I do think it's the best choice for most people.
 

smisk

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,049
Absolutely nothing wrong with slowly selling AMD.

I have to decide myself if/when I actually sell any NVDA/AMD/TSM/ASML. It will ultimately depend on what my overall portfolio looks like (if at the time, the current valuation of my entire portfolio is at a level where early retirement is possible much earlier, I would strongly consider selling certain positions in tech and crypto to lock in those gains).

Yeah I'm aiming for early retirement too. In that scenario it definitely makes sense to get into assets that are less volatile.
 

GamePnoy74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,601
NDVA's first giant AI jump was from its quarterly earnings a year ago, going from $320 to almost $400. I sold a couple of shares to help pay off the RTX 4090 card I just got while building my new PC at the time. Been holding my small handful of remaining shares since.

I bought NVDA after selling my SBUX shares at the beginning of 2022, seeing it nosedive into the low 100s throughout that year, then rocket with the OpenAI hype to where we are now. It's been a ride.

That said, this is just a very small portion of my overall portfolio, the majority of my investing is in ETFs like VOO.
 

Tom Penny

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,635
After a couple years of… let's say learning lessons, I sold all my individual stocks to rotate into index funds. I bought a lot of QQQ at the time (cost basis of $300 feels good), now I put as much into VOO as I can. And my Roth is 100% a target date fund. About 5% of my portfolio is individual stocks now, and I don't plan to increase that beyond 10%. You definitely miss out on some potential investing this way, but I do think it's the best choice for most people.
I don't plan on selling the big stocks i have above but was thinking ging forward DCA not into a few ETFs selling some of my smaller stock holdings. I own VTI SP500 and SCHD. I know the first 2 overlap. Was thinking of QQQ or SMH. And just DCA set and forget it into them..not sure why I haven't bought SMH I'm pretty dead set on it but it's always at all time highs..which doesn't even matter when DCA lol
 

Mengy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,666
Here is a good interview with Jensen about AI and inference from yesterday. He feels this AI boom will continue for some time, and he's probably right:

 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
you people talking about early retirement but with all tech stocks, how do plan to do so without having anything with income genetation/dividends

like do you just plan to sell shit and live off it? that's super scary to me no matter how large the kitty

when i make a profit off a tech trade i take the gains and put it in my Reits and payoff my rental property mortgages. so my income producing assets become free. (example, had 20k gains, dumped it in O, now it gives me 100$ a month and growing for essentially free. and i can reinvest my initial capital back into tech/growth. next target is JEPQ and more JEPI) i don't know if my stomach can handle selling off assets to buy groceries, rather use the income generated from them
 
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Mengy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,666
you people talking about early retirement but with all tech stocks, how do plan to do so without having anything with income genetation/dividends

like do you just plan to sell shit and live off it? that's super scary to me no matter how large the kitty

My plan for my TSLA is to eventually migrate it into a combination of blue chip stocks and ETFs, but not for many years yet. Once Robotaxis are on the roads making money, several megapack factories are ramped up at full production, and Optimus robots are making profits selling to customers, only then will I start the migration process. I'll probably move into stuff like VOO, KO, BUD, etc, reliable steady stocks which pay good dividends, but I might keep about 10% - 20% in TSLA too, it all depends on how much TSLA is worth by then.
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,004
you people talking about early retirement but with all tech stocks, how do plan to do so without having anything with income genetation/dividends

like do you just plan to sell shit and live off it? that's super scary to me no matter how large the kitty

when i make a profit off a tech trade i take the gains and put it in my Reits and payoff my rental property mortgages. so my income producing assets become free. (example, had 20k gains, dumped it in O, now it gives me 100$ a month and growing for essentially free. and i can reinvest my initial capital back into tech/growth. next target is JEPQ and more JEPI) i don't know if my stomach can handle selling off assets to buy groceries, rather use the income generated from them
Yep! People have already been doing this in early retirement for decades and is very common. If you have a large enough amount of VTI/VXUS I think even there you would generate a decent amount of dividend income.

I think the general idea is to have a bucket of taxable and non-taxable accounts and sell them off in a tax efficient manner (I have ROTH, traditional, HSA and taxable accounts). You would then apply the 4% rule or lower when liquidating investments (slightly modified on an annual basis based on how the market is doing). People with heavy tech stocks can just sell and diversify into index funds to lock into those gains and reduce risk heading into retirement years.

Dividends are good for predictability of cash flows each year, but that's about it.


View: https://youtu.be/4iNOtVtNKuU
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,004
Does anyone do mostly ETF investing. I think I'm done with individual stocks unless I buy more of what i own. Thinking of selling some stuff and the rest going into multiple Sp500 total market index QQQ and i really like SMH semi conductor instead of trying to pick single stocks at this point. I have my big winners i think for the long haul. I own Nvidia MS Amazon Visa Facebook and Tesla so I think I'm good 🙂 never did get any Google at any point. Probably the only one I've wanted 🤷🏻‍♂️
You could set up a lazy portfolio that consists of something like VTI/VXUS (perhaps with something like a 70% / 30% allocation.

Or you can do something like this to add a small cap tilt under factor based investing (read entire thing):

www.optimizedportfolio.com

Ben Felix Model Portfolio (Rational Reminder, PWL) ETFs & Review

Here we'll look at a U.S. version of Ben Felix's model portfolio (from Rational Reminder, PWL) and ETFs to use for its factor tilts.
 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
Yep! People have already been doing this in early retirement for decades and is very common. If you have a large enough amount of VTI/VXUS I think even there you would generate a decent amount of dividend income.

I think the general idea is to have a bucket of taxable and non-taxable accounts and sell them off in a tax efficient manner (I have ROTH, traditional, HSA and taxable accounts). You would then apply the 4% rule or lower when liquidating investments (slightly modified on an annual basis based on how the market is doing). People with heavy tech stocks can just sell and diversify into index funds to lock into those gains and reduce risk heading into retirement years.

Dividends are good for predictability of cash flows each year, but that's about it.


View: https://youtu.be/4iNOtVtNKuU

i don't know man. slaughtering the goose to eat (even if you plan to slowly eat it) always seems nerve racking to me than living off its eggs

mengys plan is what i'm following. just that i'm transitioning as i go instead of waiting until later. i can't predict the cost of living 15-20 years from now to know how much is enough to pulll the retirement switch and start selling away assets
 

HTupolev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,506
you people talking about early retirement but with all tech stocks, how do plan to do so without having anything with income genetation/dividends

like do you just plan to sell shit and live off it? that's super scary to me no matter how large the kitty
I'm not planning for early retirement, but...

I think there was good reason to own assets with high distributions in the distant past. Dividends came "free" as checks in the mail, whereas you'd need to pay your broker-dealer a commission to sell. Granularity was also more of a problem: for assets traded on secondary markers, brokerages did not manage fractional share systems, either for trading or reinvestment.
But these days, there's just not much of a barrier to selling, other than perhaps the psychology of hitting the "sell" button.

i don't know man. slaughtering the goose to eat (even if you plan to slowly eat it) always seems nerve racking to me than living off its eggs
The goose is slaughtered either way. When you sell shares for cash, your remaining shares represent less value because you have fewer of them. When you receive a dividend for cash, your remaining shares represent less value because the issuer has fewer assets. These aren't exactly the same mechanism, but there's no inherent reason that one is better than the other for your long-term value, except that the former gives you more tax control.

That last bit gets especially bad with options-based ETFs like JEPI if they're held in a taxable account. Over long timespans, the tax drag can get very substantial.
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,004
I'm not planning for early retirement, but...

I think there was good reason to own assets with high distributions in the distant past. Dividends came "free" as checks in the mail, whereas you'd need to pay your broker-dealer a commission to sell. Granularity was also more of a problem: for assets traded on secondary markers, brokerages did not manage fractional share systems, either for trading or reinvestment.
But these days, there's just not much of a barrier to selling, other than perhaps the psychology of hitting the "sell" button.


The goose is slaughtered either way. When you sell shares for cash, your remaining shares represent less value because you have fewer of them. When you receive a dividend for cash, your remaining shares represent less value because the issuer has fewer assets. These aren't exactly the same mechanism, but there's no inherent reason that one is better than the other for your long-term value, except that the former gives you more tax control.

That last bit gets especially bad with options-based ETFs like JEPI if they're held in a taxable account. Over long timespans, the tax drag can get very substantial.
Yep, dividends are essentially forced liquidations at regular intervals... a taxable event. Thus, they should be mostly irrelevant for making investing decisions.

I did pick up some O a few months back, it was because it more because it was (and is) undervalued, like most REITs. It's sitting in my HSA (super tax advantaged).
 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
That last bit gets especially bad with options-based ETFs like JEPI if they're held in a taxable account. Over long timespans, the tax drag can get very substantial.
in reits like O you're getting a piece of the rents collected and in profitable companies like apple and MS you're getting a piece of their profit/revenue. it's not like they are selling away their windows division to give you a dividend check. so i don't buy that way thinking that you're losing assets in getting dividends from them (other than the pure accounting of cash=assets, so they are giving away "assets." )

taxes used to be a concern and i used to get rammed in the past. not worried about it anymore after copying how a few of our clients were set up. if you own 2-3 duplex/triplex real estates on rent you can eliminate most of you tax liability
 
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HTupolev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,506
it's not like they are selling away their windows division to give you a dividend check.
In a way, they are. The money that gets paid out in dividends isn't being used to support or grow their operations, and the future state of those operations is where much of the market valuation of those stocks lies.

I'm not saying that every company should devote all of their cashflow to capex. But that this is more a question of what types of businesses you own, than anything specifically interesting about the mechanism through which you cash out value from your shares.

so i don't buy that way thinking that you're losing assets in getting dividends from them (other than the pure accounting of cash=assets, so they are giving away "assets." )
I don't understand why you think it's strange to refer to cash as part of a corporation's assets.
 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
I don't understand why you think it's strange to refer to cash as part of a corporation's assets.
because there's several different categories of assets. depreciating assets, revenue generating assets, liquid assets (cash), fixed/capital/human-talent/patent assets. not all are worth the same

a share of apple and ownership of it to me is way more valuable than just cash sitting on their books. yes cash is an asset but it's just money, you can always make more. and if they waste it on useless shit like VR goggles, that's double useless. but what's generating that cash (to reinvest or waste or whatever) is waaaay more valuable. i don't want to lose that to buy bread for dinner
 

HTupolev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,506
a share of apple and ownership of it to me is way more valuable than just cash sitting on their books.
That's neither here nor there when it comes to this discussion, though. Nobody is saying that all companies with healthy liquidity should start stockpiling tons of extra cash under the mattress instead of reinvesting it into their operations or distributing it to shareholders.

but what's generating that cash (to reinvest or waste or whatever) is waaaay more valuable. i don't want to lose that to buy bread for dinner
If you consider a corporation's assets more valuable than cash, why are you using dividends to buy dinner instead of reinvesting them into more shares of the corporation?

The reason you blew the dividend on dinner is, of course, that you needed to eat. That's a rational choice, but it results in you having a smaller investment than if you'd spent it on securities instead of food. Just like how selling securities to buy dinner results in you having a smaller investment than if you had not done so.
(Or, flipped around: reinvesting dividends is strategically comparable to doing nothing with a non-dividend security that you hold.)
 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
The reason you blew the dividend on dinner is, of course, that you needed to eat. That's a rational choice, but it results in you having a smaller investment than if you'd spent it on securities instead of food. Just like how selling securities to buy dinner results in you having a smaller investment than if you had not done so.
cause spending the dividend on dinner doesn't lower my share count or my share of dividends next month. selling off the shares means i'll get less next month. the forever growth/reinvest model that corporations follow doesn't work on a personal level because i'm not here forever, i'll die eventually. the dividend model just makes sure i die well fed when im not earning anymore from a job to buy more shares

either way, different models. i like safe eggs, you like roast ducks. hope we both get to keep eating before going 6 feet under
 

feline fury

Member
Dec 8, 2017
1,581
cause spending the dividend on dinner doesn't lower my share count or my share of dividends next month. selling off the shares means i'll get less next month. the forever growth/reinvest model that corporations follow doesn't work on a personal level because i'm not here forever, i'll die eventually. the dividend model just makes sure i die well fed when im not earning anymore from a job to buy more shares

either way, different models. i like safe eggs, you like roast ducks. hope we both get to keep eating before going 6 feet under
At some point, it's okay to spend down your portfolio in retirement. Can't take everything with you. Unless you want to bequeath it all to your next of kin.
 

HTupolev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,506
cause spending the dividend on dinner doesn't lower my share count or my share of dividends next month.
Spending the dividend will definitely result in you having lower future dividends, when compared with keeping that money in the dividend-paying asset. It doesn't lower your share count, but "share count" is mostly an arbitrarily-scaled number.

i like safe eggs, you like roast ducks.
Our current disagreement doesn't have anything to do with what either of us likes.
 

Carn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,112
The Netherlands
NDVA's first giant AI jump was from its quarterly earnings a year ago, going from $320 to almost $400. I sold a couple of shares to help pay off the RTX 4090 card I just got while building my new PC at the time. Been holding my small handful of remaining shares since.

I bought NVDA after selling my SBUX shares at the beginning of 2022, seeing it nosedive into the low 100s throughout that year, then rocket with the OpenAI hype to where we are now. It's been a ride.

That said, this is just a very small portion of my overall portfolio, the majority of my investing is in ETFs like VOO.

yeah similar situation here, 80% is in ETFs. I bought a bunch of NVDA years back (pre-2020) because a friend of mine (still..) works there. I actually sold most of them when it hit $100; since hey, that was a nice milestone. So now have a bunch left that will most likely will not be sold in the near future :P
 

Mengy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,666
NVDA going down to ~ $100/shr in a few weeks sure does make it an attractive stock to sell regular ITM covered calls on. I'm thinking I might try doing that for a bit in my "fun" account. Not gonna buy until after the split though to see if the shares drop any afterwards, splits often do initially.
 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
NVDA going down to ~ $100/shr in a few weeks sure does make it an attractive stock to sell regular ITM covered calls on. I'm thinking I might try doing that for a bit in my "fun" account. Not gonna buy until after the split though to see if the shares drop any afterwards, splits often do initially.
welcome to the cc club friend, remember there's no going back

and yeah waiting for after the split for buy cause right now the hype is insane. even a 10$ drop gets bought up
 
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Mengy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,666
welcome to the cc club friend, remember there's no going back

and yeah waiting for after the split for buy cause right now the hype insane. even a 10$ drop gets bought up

Oh I've done CC's before over the years, just not regularly at all. I've always planned to do CC's on my TSLA many years from now when I want to sell some and I probably will still do it that way.

For the meantime though, CC's on NVDA will look very appealing after the 10:1 split. 😎
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,004
Honestly, I'll probably get a position in a Fidelity Eth ETF.

Same. I did buy a position in they're BTC ETF as soon as it was available. Unfortunately, I didn't buy as much as I wanted. Still glad I was able to get something at a very low cost basis. I plan to do the same in my tax advantaged accounts. Need to decide on how much I actually want (won't be as much as BTC).

I have been staking ETH so it's way more valuable to own outright.
 

golguin

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,788
When is a good time to buy Nvidia? It wasn't suppose to double after $500, but it did so do I need to wait for China to attack Taiwan before its a good buy?
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,004
When is a good time to buy Nvidia? It wasn't suppose to double after $500, but it did so do I need to wait for China to attack Taiwan before its a good buy?
Maybe. The implications of something like this happening would probably ruin the entire stock market for at least several years.
 

Lunchbox-

Member
Nov 2, 2017
12,229
bEast Coast
Maybe. The implications of something like this happening would probably ruin the entire stock market for at least several years.
raytheon and lockheed would be the new nvidia and AMD

on when to buy nvidia, i'm personally waiting for after the split, but it can go 2 ways-
1-people treat it as a sell the news event and you get a mini correction
or, 2-money that's waiting on the sidelines use the new post split lower price to buy it and push it to even newer all time highs
 
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