What exactly do you expect Outer Wilds to win?
So you didn't ask me but I'll answer anyway...
For me Outer Wilds is my GotY (unless Control/SWJFO really, really impress me)
Game of the Year - I think whether this gets nominated will be indicative of whether there is an indie quota of a sort. I don't think this is a year where there are a lot of utterly brilliant games, rather a lot of very good games. I think there's usually a fairly obvious major issue with all of the big AAA games (bar Sekiro) and I think that ought to allow something like Outer Wilds a chance.
Best Independent Game - It will surely be nominated and feels like it will be in a fight with Disco Elysium
Best Debut Indie Game - Same as Best Independent Game
Best Student Game - Presumably it doesn't count but it
was begun as a student project
Best Action/Adventure Game - It's an adventure game in the purest sense and it is exceptional on that front
Best Narrative - There is something really special about how this game evolves its story and the mechanisms by which it does so. It unfolds naturally and non-linearly as you uncover the mystery, it keeps delivering surprises right to the absolutely incredible end