The new Microsoft deals are targeted at ALL regulators.
1. We have an article saying the EC will probably approve. We should not take it as a known fact that they will definitely approve. Likely is not definitive. Microsoft will not take that as a known fact, and will instead work to make it a fact until a decision one way or another is in their hands.
2. EC approving with the biggest tolerable behavioral remedies is a component of Microsoft's best path to CMA approval with purely behavioral remedies.
3. Creating Related Consumer Benefits that would not exist without the deal or with divestment is a component of Microsoft's best path to approval by the CMA. These deals arguably create those. (There are counter-arguments available should the CMA be inclined to disagree.)
4. One of the four biggest weaknesses of the FTC case for an injunction or on appeal of a final agency decision is that merging/acquiring parties don't have to argue that the deal alone isn't anti-competitive. They can argue that the deal combined with the proposed remedies are not anti-competitive. (The so called "litigate the fix" strategy has yielded wins for merging parties before.) Accordingly, these deals weaken the FTC's case in Federal Court.
5. The big 3 competition agencies have yet to rule, but approval by any of them increases the chances of approval by others, to wit: CMA is the harshest and hardest to appeal. Approval there means a disapproval anywhere else is absolutely headed for litigation until a complete exhaustion of remedies. EC approval likely comes with remedies and enforcement that other agencies can lean on, and won't necessarily want to discount the meaningfulness of. FTC approval would change the optics/politics. It is one thing for the EC or CMA to block one US company from buying another US company when the US government opposes the merger. It is a different thing to do when the US government supports it. Of course, these agencies have the power to do it, but they are also cognizant of the fact that the shoe will eventually be on the other foot, and there is some level of mutual respect among regulators.
6. Apart from purely regional remedies, which don't appear to remotely be a consideration at this point, it is my impression that every shot is aimed at three targets.
7. Yes, the CMA is still probably ultimately the most important of those targets.