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killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,242
Toronto
I wouldn't put much stake in those numbers. They were just after Microsoft had put Fortnite in XCloud, and made it free for everyone even if you didn't have a subscription, and heavily marketed it towards iOS and Android players who had the game pulled from their respective App Stores and were left screwed over by Apple and Google.

Not to mention, they later backtracked and said it was a complete disappointment, presumably after all the players left because of all the bugs and issues it caused in the XBL Network and how XCloud just couldn't keep up to that initial demand.

In fact the experiment failed so badly that Epic pulled Fortnite from XCloud and went back to their original stance of giving the middle finger to cloud gaming, despite the fact that their alternative was literally not being able to play the game on mobile platforms.

And really, if this is the kind of experience that the supposed Market Leader of a market that is over 15 years old (Gaikai was founded in 2008, OnLive released in 2010) has to offer, I'm sure the CMA knows exactly what they're talking about when they say it'll be a meaningful percentage of the Console Market in 10+ years.

I'm sure these 10m in players will be more than happy to come back and subscribe to another cloud gaming service after the market leader succeeded so much with this heavy hitter title.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
2,650
Foss Patents put out a poll and he thought it would prove no one used cloud, but it turned out majority of respondents did say they used the Xbox cloud. Even if it wasn't regular use. Most said they used it for the rewards program Microsoft has. That's how i've used it as well as trying something out before deciding whether or not to buy it. Microsoft is on record saying they think cloud is going to play a big role in the future and CMA agreed.

That's the thing though, which blows my mind here. A business strategy is not a crime to have, it's what companies are supposed to do.

These are the business strategies that Microsoft laid out or illustrated during the course of this ordeal.

Multiple agreements with cloud competitors for games
Agreements with Sony/Nintendo to ensure Call of Duty on their respective platforms.
Deals with unions
Mobile storefront to compete with Apple/Google.

The above are tangible, achievable and realistically within Microsoft's reach and power to comply with and the CMA ignored them all.

Microsoft simply being on record saying that cloud is going to play a big role in the future means what? They can't force the market to respond in a while that the market might reject. Microsoft hoping for the cloud to become big is a desire but curiously, this is the thing the CMA took stock in.

www.ign.com

Bill Gates' GDC Keynote Speech - IGN

Here is the transcript of Bill Gates' keynote speech at the Game…

This is what Bill Gates called the original Xbox when he spoke on it during the 2000 GDC keynote speech.

Bill Gates: The modest tag line here is "the future of console gaming."

23 years later, Microsoft hasn't hit those lofty goals. Why? The market dictates what happens, with the actions of the participants being able to move freely.

We can go even further. Think about New Coke.

Coca-Cola was already the world's best selling drink.

www.history.com

Why Coca-Cola's 'New Coke' Flopped

Coca-Cola’s disastrous introduction of "New Coke" in 1985 delivered a painful lesson: Don't mess with a classic.

On April 23, 1985, Coca-Cola Company chairman and CEO Roberto Goizueta stepped before the press gathered at New York City's Lincoln Center to introduce the new formula...

"Some may choose to call this the boldest single marketing move in the history of the packaged-goods business," Goizueta said. "We simply call it the surest move ever made." Coca-Cola president Donald Keough echoed the certainty: "I've never been as confident about a decision as I am about the one we're announcing today."

While Goizueta and Keough toasted each other with cans of New Coke, the news was already beginning to fall flat. On the New York Stock Exchange, shares of Coca-Cola dropped, while those of its rival rose. Pepsi gave its employees the day off and declared victory in full-page newspaper advertisements that boasted, ''After 87 years of going at it eyeball to eyeball, the other guy just blinked.''

Seventy-nine days after their initial announcement, Coca-Cola executives once again held a press conference on July 11, 1985—this time to announce a mea culpa and the return of the original formula, which hardly had time to gather dust in its Atlanta bank vault, under the label "Coca-Cola Classic." "Our boss is the consumer," Keough said. "We want them to know we're really sorry." The news was so momentous that television networks broke into normal programming with special reports.

The point of the history lesson is that all companies have plans. If they aren't congruent with the buying public, then than is all for naught.

But then there is the other point. If cloud gaming is going to be the rage, why did Google cut and run? They have just as much money as Microsoft. Why isn't Sony or Nintendo investing far more in this space?

Gaming is an industry that is structured as an oligopoly. It's why only Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo make consoles and have been the only companies for the past two decades. Not to mention the data caps in the United States. I pay Comcast and extra $50 a month for unlimited data. That's too rich for most people to do and that is already for the highest tier in my area.

I've long said that the CMA just didn't want the deal, but this is just such an intellectually lazy and flimsy way to go about blocking it.
 

Hasney

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,727
In fact the experiment failed so badly that Epic pulled Fortnite from XCloud and went back to their original stance of giving the middle finger to cloud gaming, despite the fact that their alternative was literally not being able to play the game on mobile platforms.

Wha? Fortnite is still there, I just booted it up to see. It's also available on Boosteroid, Geforce Now, Shadow, airgpu and Luna
 

headspawn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,629

I was among that number, probably under two hours of use in the two years since launch... wouldn't exactly call myself a cloud gamer to the point where I should be included in sectioning off a feature into a separate gaming market. I don't know a single person who subs to GPU for primary xcloud use or even moderate xcloud use.
 

PtM

Banned
Dec 7, 2017
3,582
It's not rooted in reality to think people subscribe to gamepass specifically for a beta of cloud gaming.
That is not the argument at all.
It's more that they are a good fit and Gamepass will drive the cloud platform.
Xbox should be working to separate Cloud from Gamepass, like tomorrow

Have it be its own tier so it can't be conflated. Anyone with a brain knows the majority of Gamepass subscribers are not regularly using the Cloud
This is about the future, not today.
Cloud gaming is being touted as the industry's technological future, most of all by Microsoft itself – and arguably much more importantly, game subscription services like Game Pass are positioning themselves to be the industry's business model future, in line with how subscription services have become the default business model for every other form of media that has shifted to a cloud-based system.
 

Mxlegend99

Member
May 20, 2018
559
That's not how many people are using it. That's how many people have used it.

Huge difference between someone actually using it. And someonejust checking it out

I gave cloud gaming a go. Tried a couple of times. Picture was pixelated. Controller input lag was annoying and I was done pretty quickly. Maybe 30 minutes all up cloud gaming. Haven't had a positive experience and likely won't try again.

I imagine most people only use it to check it out and ultimately settle on playing games locally.
 

Hasney

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,727
That's not how many people are using it. That's how many people have used it.

Huge difference between someone actually using it. And someonejust checking it out

I gave cloud gaming a go. Tried a couple of times. Picture was pixelated. Controller input lag was annoying and I was done pretty quickly. Maybe 30 minutes all up cloud gaming. Haven't had a positive experience and likely won't try again.

I imagine most people only use it to check it out and ultimately settle on playing games locally.

Plus all of us rewards freaks booting games up for the weekly challenges
 
OP
OP
Idas

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,036
If we have a decision from the EC today or this week, don't expect more than a press release like this one.

The decision text (usually between 80 and 100 pages) won't be published today. The text is usually published between 3 and 5 months after the decision (for confidentiality reasons, usually).

Expect the decision (today or during the week) between 11:30 AM CET and 1:30 PM CET.
 
OP
OP
Idas

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,036
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Bxrz

Banned
Dec 18, 2020
1,902
That is not the argument at all.
It's more that they are a good fit and Gamepass will drive the cloud platform.

This is about the future, not today.
They said Microsoft has 60-70% userbase and used Gamepass numbers (not Cloud specific numbers) to back their argument. That is invalid.
 

wo1f-cola

Member
May 3, 2023
246
Yeah, I dunno where you got your info from. It was just launched on luna... they've only been expanding cloud access to the game.
The CMA had different breakdowns of MAU for paid and unpaid services. But the calculations are a little weird because for paid services they didn't consider Luna users that didn't pay for an upgraded tier or for access to additional games beyond what was provided by their prime subscription, and the CMA ignored Stadia for these calculations since Google said they were unable to proved split paid/unpaid numbers. These two adjustments to the CMA's calculation boosted MSFT's market share in cloud gaming by 10%.
 

Ratuso

Member
Nov 27, 2021
1,201
They said Microsoft has 60-70% userbase and used Gamepass numbers (not Cloud specific numbers) to back their argument. That is invalid.
I'm 100% sure that the CMA requested Microsoft for Cloud numbers. So either MS didn't give them, or MS internal documents show that the Cloud share is high.

That market share has been present since the Provisional Findings, if they weren't true, I'm sure that Microsoft would have provided such evidence, like they did with the Console calculation.

The CMA had different breakdowns of MAU for paid and unpaid services. But the calculations are a little weird because for paid services they didn't consider Luna users that didn't pay for an upgraded tier or for access to additional games beyond what was provided by their prime subscription, and the CMA ignored Stadia for these calculations since Google said they were unable to proved split paid/unpaid numbers. These two adjustments to the CMA's calculation boosted MSFT's market share in cloud gaming by 10%.

To be fair, Stadia has shut down, so I don't think their numbers matter anymore
 

Bxrz

Banned
Dec 18, 2020
1,902
I'm 100% sure that the CMA requested Microsoft for Cloud numbers. So either MS didn't give them, or MS internal documents show that the Cloud share is high.

That market share has been present since the Provisional Findings, if they weren't true, I'm sure that Microsoft would have provided such evidence, like they did with the Console calculation.



To be fair, Stadia has shut down, so I don't think their numbers matter anymore
Either Microsoft doesn't have the numbers or its too difficult for them to differentiate. Either way, separating Cloud from Gamepass solves this issue.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,654
Either Microsoft doesn't have the numbers or its too difficult for them to differentiate. Either way, separating Cloud from Gamepass solves this issue.

I'd imagine xcloud attached to GPU is just a temporary thing anyway. I think it's also safe to say they'll offer xcloud separately from GPU. But separating it for the CMA kinda does the opposite of supporting their stance that merging with activision provides relevant customer benefits. Perhaps that'd be a whole new SLC argument itself too.
 

Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,292
Not sure why people keep trying to say the CMA is over counting XCloud numbers. As far as I remember MS had only said that they are undercounting the competitors numbers. I am guessing XCloud user numbers are probably pretty high and much higher then other services.
 

ShinAmano

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,849
Not sure why people keep trying to say the CMA is over counting XCloud numbers. As far as I remember MS had only said that they are undercounting the competitors numbers. I am guessing XCloud user numbers are probably pretty high and much higher then other services.
From what I understand they are counting every gamepass user as a cloud user which is factually false.
 

Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,292
From what I understand they are counting every gamepass user as a cloud user which is factually false.
Doubtful. If they were counting every GPU user as a cloud user MS would immediately have talked about it. They are using MS's own numbers that show how many GPU users use Xcloud. Otherwise MS would be challenging the numbers more.
 

GulfCoastZilla

Shinra Employee
Member
Sep 13, 2022
6,679
Wouldn't the answer be to just remove Xcloud from gamepass and make it a separate subscription. That would show you the true number which I'm guessing wouldn't be a lot.
 

Bxrz

Banned
Dec 18, 2020
1,902
I'd imagine xcloud attached to GPU is just a temporary thing anyway. I think it's also safe to say they'll offer xcloud separately from GPU. But separating it for the CMA kinda does the opposite of supporting their stance that merging with activision provides relevant customer benefits. Perhaps that'd be a whole new SLC argument itself too.
They should separate for this acquisition and future ones. This "reasoning" can realistically be used stop to all future major Xbox acquisitions with the CMA. If its not resolved now, it never will be

Doubtful. If they were counting every GPU user as a cloud user MS would immediately have talked about it. They are using MS's own numbers that show how many GPU users use Xcloud. Otherwise MS would be challenging the numbers more.
They are counting every GPU sub as a cloud user. Thats the only logical explanation for their "Microsoft has 60-70 marketshare in the cloud gaming market" claim. Pretty sure I read that Microsoft showed them only 5k people in the UK use xCloud and they basically ignored it from what I saw
 
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Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,292
They should separate for this acquisition and future ones. This "reasoning" can realistically stop all future major Xbox acquisitions.


They are counting every GPU sub as a cloud user. Thats the only logical explanation for their "Microsoft has 60-70 marketshare in the cloud gaming market" claim. Pretty sure I read that Microsoft showed them only 5k people in the UK use xCloud and they basically ignored it from what I saw
Wasn't the 5K number the max concurrent users they could have? That doesn't mean they only have 5000 users. They are counting the total number for all the companies internationally. There is some chance even if people want to keep ignoring it that MS is the leader in Cloud gaming currently and they can't really argue against those numbers. Also separating Xcloud from Gamepass wouldn't really address the CMA's argument anyway as that would be another behavioral remedy.
 

rscardinals

Member
Feb 17, 2023
386
I'm 100% sure that the CMA requested Microsoft for Cloud numbers. So either MS didn't give them, or MS internal documents show that the Cloud share is high.

That market share has been present since the Provisional Findings, if they weren't true, I'm sure that Microsoft would have provided such evidence, like they did with the Console calculation.

Yup either MS didn't provide the info (own fault) or the numbers were high.

Either Microsoft doesn't have the numbers or its too difficult for them to differentiate. Either way, separating Cloud from Gamepass solves this issue.

Not sure why people keep trying to say the CMA is over counting XCloud numbers. As far as I remember MS had only said that they are undercounting the competitors numbers. I am guessing XCloud user numbers are probably pretty high and much higher then other services.

Doubtful. If they were counting every GPU user as a cloud user MS would immediately have talked about it. They are using MS's own numbers that show how many GPU users use Xcloud. Otherwise MS would be challenging the numbers more.

Xbox did provide their user count
5.76 from Final Report said:
Microsoft stated that cloud gaming was []. In support of this it stated that the
[]% of xCloud use in 2022 was on console, and that telemetry data
indicates that []% of XPGU usage (in terms of active users) was on xCloud
in September 2022.
The CMA, however, believed that GamePass Ultimate subscribers were likely motivated to subscribe to the top tier because of xCloud
8.91 from Final Report said:
The Parties submitted that shares of supply analysis is misleading and overstates Microsoft's strength as [], and it is therefore not comparable to standalone cloud gaming services such as GFN.814 Whilst it is not possible to determine how many users xCloud would have as a standalone service, the evidence described above indicates that cloud gaming attracts users to XGPU and that a significant proportion ([]%) of users would be willing to pay extra for it, even though they already have access to offline play, which suggests for those customers, streaming and offline play are not substitutes, and these
customers may be interested in cloud gaming as a standalone service (although we recognise that it is difficult to fully separate Microsoft's ability to 'upsell' xCloud to Game Pass customers from Microsoft's ability to compete for stand-alone xCloud customers).
Microsoft was disputing the CMAs approach to market share as far back and consistently since the Provisional Findings
3.86 from Microsoft's response to the provisional findings said:
The CMA's claim that Microsoft "already holds a strong position in cloud gaming" is based on a misleading analysis of shares of supply. In particular, the CMA estimates that Microsoft's share increased from []% in 2021 to []% in 2022.
In the end, the CMA disagreed with Microsoft's analysis of the numbers. The CMA's analysis is on MAUs, so it's not all XGPU subscribers, but likely most of them. And the CMA did not exclude users who "tried games before downloading" or users who only used cloud gaming on their consoles.

So, yes, Microsoft was able to provide the data
Yes, Microsoft could calculate how many xCloud users there were that would be comparable to NVidia's service.
But the CMA disagreed and believed xCloud was a motivating factor for GPU to the point that they believed those users would pay for it as a seperate service.[/QUOTE]
 

Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,292
Xbox did provide their user count

The CMA, however, believed that GamePass Ultimate subscribers were likely motivated to subscribe to the top tier because of xCloud

Microsoft was disputing the CMAs approach to market share as far back and consistently since the Provisional Findings

In the end, the CMA disagreed with Microsoft's analysis of the numbers. The CMA's analysis is on MAUs, so it's not all XGPU subscribers, but likely most of them. And the CMA did not exclude users who "tried games before downloading" or users who only used cloud gaming on their consoles.

So, yes, Microsoft was able to provide the data
Yes, Microsoft could calculate how many xCloud users there were that would be comparable to NVidia's service.
But the CMA disagreed and believed xCloud was a motivating factor for GPU to the point that they believed those users would pay for it as a seperate service.
So yes MS has a lot of Xcloud users in GPU. The argument then for them is that those numbers wouldn't represent the numbers if they were to make the service a separate paid for thing. However they still has those hard numbers that show them leading among cloud services so I am not sure how they are going to argue them away. Also I doubt there is any plan to ever separate Xcloud from Gamepass. They are clearly doing a subscription cloud service.
 

Bxrz

Banned
Dec 18, 2020
1,902
Xbox did provide their user count

The CMA, however, believed that GamePass Ultimate subscribers were likely motivated to subscribe to the top tier because of xCloud

Microsoft was disputing the CMAs approach to market share as far back and consistently since the Provisional Findings

In the end, the CMA disagreed with Microsoft's analysis of the numbers. The CMA's analysis is on MAUs, so it's not all XGPU subscribers, but likely most of them. And the CMA did not exclude users who "tried games before downloading" or users who only used cloud gaming on their consoles.

So, yes, Microsoft was able to provide the data
Yes, Microsoft could calculate how many xCloud users there were that would be comparable to NVidia's service.
But the CMA disagreed and believed xCloud was a motivating factor for GPU to the point that they believed those users would pay for it as a seperate service.


And this is why it needs to be its own tier.

"CMA belived xCloud was a motivating factor for GPU to the point that they believed those users would pay for it as a separate service"

Since the CMA believes this, prove them wrong with facts. Make xCloud its own tier and watch it be, by far, the least subscribed to Gamepass tier.
 

Bessy67

Member
Oct 29, 2017
11,679
And this is why it needs to be its own tier.

"CMA belived xCloud was a motivating factor for GPU to the point that they believed those users would pay for it as a separate service"

Since the CMA believes this, prove them wrong with facts. Make xCloud its own tier and watch it be, by far, the least subscribed to Gamepass tier.
Then it's just "See, you used your market power to raise prices for cloud users. Anticompetitive!"

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

So yes MS has a lot of Xcloud users in GPU. The argument then for them is that those numbers wouldn't represent the numbers if they were to make the service a separate paid for thing. However they still has those hard numbers that show them leading among cloud services so I am not sure how they are going to argue them away. Also I doubt there is any plan to ever separate Xcloud from Gamepass. They are clearly doing a subscription cloud service.
Counting someone using cloud on an Xbox console as a cloud user is really weird. I'd like to see the redacted percentage because if it's high it really calls into question the reasoning behind separating the cloud and console markets into distinct things.
 
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Bxrz

Banned
Dec 18, 2020
1,902
Then it's just "See, you used your market power to raise prices for cloud users. Anticompetitive!"

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
It doesn't even have to be more money than GPU, Xbox can do something like Gamepass $10, Gamepass + Cloud $13, GPU $15. I still think Gamepass + Cloud would easily see the least subscribed numbers out of all tiers.

Point is, theres a lot of ways that they can attack that argument because thinking that everyone that subscribed to GPU is cause of xCloud is pure nonsense
 

craven68

Member
Jun 20, 2018
4,556
A early answer feel more positive for Microsoft than a late answer .
Remember uk waited the last day possible for saying no.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
55,285
Same. Well, just one more week.
someone replying to Florian on Twitter shared some comment that MS/ABK is a Phase 2 Deal and would be decided by the College of Commissioners (which usually takes place on a Tuesday or Wednesday) so maybe tomorrow lol. In any case, just a week until the official deadline
 

SublimeAnarky

Member
Oct 27, 2017
811
Copenhagen, Denmark
Super interested to see where the EU lands.

I do not believe it will affect the outcome of the deal (I think it's dead already), but seeing how regulatory bodies are trying to make sense of/exert regulatory opinion on an industry they otherwise had not cared much for has been a journey.

I hope that regardless of this deal, the attention that the industry has received here from corridors of government will lead to greater discourse and decision making on predatory industry behavior towards consumers and worker well being.
 
Oct 27, 2017
152
The CMA, however, believed that GamePass Ultimate subscribers were likely motivated to subscribe to the top tier because of xCloud

The mere idea that anyone would subscribe to GPU for xCloud access is utterly hilarious/baffling. Only ever used it once, to play 30 minutes of the new Monkey Island, as for some reason it worked over the cloud before the actual download was available. It was serviceable at best, though I wouldn't dream of playing a game that required quick reflexes over the cloud, and that's going to be a sticking point for a lot longer than a decade given the infrastructure simply isn't there, and needs a revolutionary new approach. I'd bank on it being closer to 25 years before pings are acceptably low enough worldwide to give a comparable experience to current couch gaming over mobile/console/PC. And even then it will require a generational shift in ideology to be viable, as nobody I know takes cloud gaming seriously.

CMA need to shake their collective heads, as they are completely out of touch with reality, and need to take a closer look at the actual mindset of gamers when it comes to the current approach of streaming games.
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,242
Toronto
Yeah, I dunno where you got your info from. It was just launched on luna... they've only been expanding cloud access to the game.

I'll have to dig up the article, but there was one a couple months ago where Phil Spensor had admited that Fortnite ended up being a disapointment. And That coupled with me searching in the app for Fortnite and getting absolutely nothing, then just putting 2+2 together.

So obviously now its clear that my assumption on Epic pulling it was wrong, though that also just goes to show just how poor the exprience of XCloud is where I literally could not search for a game that clearly exists on the platform. So now imagine how many people did the same thing as me where they downloaded the app (or have it installed), tried to search for the game and found notning, and then gave up. And then lets go a step further. How many of those users tried it initially during the games launch on XCloud, got constant Server Errors, and waiting screens because of there not being enough nodes, and then were turned off Game Streaming because it just didn't work.
 

LilScooby77

Member
Dec 11, 2019
11,166
It doesn't even have to be more money than GPU, Xbox can do something like Gamepass $10, Gamepass + Cloud $13, GPU $15. I still think Gamepass + Cloud would easily see the least subscribed numbers out of all tiers.

Point is, theres a lot of ways that they can attack that argument because thinking that everyone that subscribed to GPU is cause of xCloud is pure nonsense
It really doesn't matter what the facts are when you cant check the CMA on what they believe. Do we know if the CMA had any prior video game cases or did they only just explore the industry with this as their first case? It would makes more sense why they are ignorant to anything Microsoft tells them.
 

GulfCoastZilla

Shinra Employee
Member
Sep 13, 2022
6,679
What is the chance the EU deal is influenced by the CMA deal. Like do they even bother with requesting or ignoring behavioral remedies since this is a dead in the water deal anyway at this point.