The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues)

[Idas]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:

Lawyers cautiously optimistic over outcome of Microsoft/Activision Blizzard's EC merger review

After a closed hearing at the European Commission (EC) last week, at which Microsoft fought for approval of its proposed $69bn acquisition of Activision Blizzard, Brussels-based competition lawyers are divided on whether the software giant’s … Lawyers cautiously optimistic over outcome of...

www.equityreport.co.uk

Click to shrink...

- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

 

[Andrei Rublev]

I think offering all ABK for 10 years is a no brainer for MS.

 

[Deleted member 93062]

Let the rollercoaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:



- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal going forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

Click to shrink...

The lawyers mention that the final decision by EC/CMA is likely going to be similar. Do you agree with that Idas? Also interesting that they're promising all ABK games. Crash and Spyro remain on PlayStation!

 

[vixolus]

The lawyers mention that the final decision by EC/CMA is likely going to be similar. Do you agree with that Idas? Also interesting that they're promising all ABK games. Crash and Spyro remain on PlayStation!

Click to shrink...

Post the expanding brain meme again

 

[Chip Chanceworth]

Is microsoft getting out of the video game business or not?!

 

[Deleted member 93062]

Post the expanding brain meme again

Click to shrink...

God. I love this meme.

 

[Zebesian-X]

I mean yeah at this point why not offer up the full line-up . If CoD is staying multiplat the rest is a drop in the bucket for MS

 

[Lant_War]

I think offering all ABK for 10 years is a no brainer for MS.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, if you were already willing to offer the biggest moneymaker of Activision, then smaller games are an obvious compromise too. Not sure what that part about discounted price means though?

 

[Native_Vel]

I think offering all ABK for 10 years is a no brainer for MS.

Click to shrink...

Same.

It also sets a wonderful precedent in case any other platform (perhaps a market leader?) wants to acquire a publisher and make their product exclusive.

 

[Zok310]

Is this guy for real?
View: https://twitter.com/LumberjackRy/status/1630246447139659777

Click to shrink...

Seems fair, why should they be left of of pub acquisition.

 

[Trup1aya]

I mean yeah at this point why not offer up the full line-up . If CoD is staying multiplat the rest is a drop in the bucket for MS

Click to shrink...

I mean, the rest of the lineup is completely irrelevant as there's no argument that they are essential. So, why offer them up if they won't move the needle?

 

[Yerffej]

Lol, no way... If anything, PS will extend that GAP even further over the course of the generation. It seems you don't realise just how dominant PS is worldwide. PS vs Xbox is like a lion vs a house cat.. the same family..way different sizes.


The fact that it is profitable does not matter, what matters is if the Execs feel that the money spent on Xbox could be better deployed in another division to yield even better profits i.e better ROI. If they crunch the numbers and it shows that capital is better deployed to Azure instead of Xbox, then they will shitcan the division pronto. At the end of the day, it is all about numbers.

Click to shrink...

Because more eggs in fewer baskets always makes sense. Throw away what is a healthy segment for how execs "feel". I'll believe it when it happens. I can say with a decent amount of confidence that Xbox's future doesn't hinge on this acquisition.

 

[Helix]

View: https://twitter.com/andyplaytonic/status/1630235206450831360?s=46&t=FZF7x6kSntcBEftF37mXfg


There's no way this is even a possibility.

Click to shrink...

Step 1: Fail Last Gen with a shit console and basically no games

Step 2: Buy Studios to increase portfolio

Step 3: FUCK IT, Buy Publishers instead!

Step 4: Attempt to buy the Biggest Publisher in the Industry

Step 5: Fail at buying that publisher so might as well sell the whole unit of business because everything else is worthless.

This makes sense.

I'd like to see who can afford Xbox with the amount of shit they have under their belt.

 

[Zebesian-X]

I mean, the rest of the lineup is completely irrelevant as there's no argument that they are essential. So, why offer them up if they won't move the needle?

Click to shrink...

It's hard to say without getting a direct look at the EC's Statement of Objections. Would assume that if MS is including the rest of ABK's line-up, it's because they think it will move the needle.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I mean, the rest of the lineup is completely irrelevant as there's no argument that they are essential. So, why offer them up if they won't move the needle?

Click to shrink...

Just to sweeten the pot and address the concern of making content exclusive.

 

[Yoga Flame]

View: https://twitter.com/HoegLaw/status/1630262036981489664?s=20

Click to shrink...

Happy to see Hoeg posting again

 

[Ratuso]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:



- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

Click to shrink...

Interesting. Didn't MLex report that the SO included all concerns from Phase 1? (OS, Cloud gaming, consoles and subscriptions)

 

[Vinc]

With Acti/Bliz you are gaining growth in a market you're already doing fine in, sure it would give them big growth, but going after something like the Japanese market which is untapped for them would increase growth more imo.

Click to shrink...

I understand the thought process here, but I just completely disagree with you. Growing the japanese market is one thing, but Activision gives them a tremendous amount of market share for the global industry in one go. I don't think there's any other option on the table that makes them grow quite as fast.

Step 1: Fail Last Gen with a shit console and basically no games

Step 2: Buy Studios to increase portfolio

Step 3: FUCK IT, Buy Publishers instead!

Step 4: Attempt to buy the Biggest Publisher in the Industry

Step 5: Fail at buying that publisher so might as well sell the whole unit of business because everything else is worthless.

This makes sense.

I'd like to see who can afford Xbox with the amount of shit they have under their belt.

Click to shrink...

Assuming the Xbox division is currently profitable (I think it is?), I think a more likely scenario than a sale is a spin off. If Microsoft shareholders aren't happy with the speed of growth the division is seeing, it would make sense for Xbox to be divorced from those shareholders. People who believe Xbox can grow slower and establish itself as a dominant industry player over the long term can buy those shares.

 

[bsigg]

I mean, the rest of the lineup is completely irrelevant as there's no argument that they are essential. So, why offer them up if they won't move the needle?

Click to shrink...

I suppose if the idea that Microsoft doesn't need the content to be exclusive because they can offer it to players at a lower cost via Game Pass to try and entice players vs competition, you prove that to regulators by offering a long-term contract for anything console related coming out of ABK going to Nintendo and Sony platforms.

 

[LinguisticGoblin]

Step 1: Fail Last Gen with a shit console and basically no games

Step 2: Buy Studios to increase portfolio

Step 3: FUCK IT, Buy Publishers instead!

Step 4: Attempt to buy the Biggest Publisher in the Industry

Step 5: Fail at buying that publisher so might as well sell the whole unit of business because everything else is worthless.

This makes sense.

I'd like to see who can afford Xbox with the amount of shit they have under their belt.

Click to shrink...

This isn't the level of discourse I've come to expect of this thread, or even close to it. Bringing fanboy mudslinging into this discussion is unhelpful and not at all what the OT is supposed to be for.

 

[akintheuite]

Because more eggs in fewer baskets always makes sense. Throw away what is a healthy segment for how execs "feel". I'll believe it when it happens. I can say with a decent amount of confidence that Xbox's future doesn't hinge on this acquisition.

Click to shrink...

Which is why I said it depends on the numbers. If this deal falls through, MS is going to pay ABK a breakup fee of 3bn dollars, which is a loss of 3bn from the gaming division; a division that is now growing slowly, losing marketshare and not hitting any of the milestones it was supposed to hit (gamepass subs). If I'm Nadella, I am beginning to consider at the very least if making gaming hardware is still worth it (it is a loss-making part of Xbox). I could easily drop the hardware, go full third party, get plugged into the market of the dominant console (PS), and see software sales soar! Halo on PS makes it culturally relevant again. Software sales on PS (and Nintendo) rake in the profits, the share price goes up, stockholders are happy, Win-win for everyone!

NB: I am not saying this will happen, just suggesting that it is a real possibility.

They'd use that money to buy other people like Sega or Capcom, those are much much cheaper and would give them major growth. Them selling Xbox because they didn't get CoD is certainly a take. They can do a lot of damage with that money.

Click to shrink...

Why? Easier to just go full third party.

 

[Yoga Flame]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:



- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

Click to shrink...

Nice. Looking good with EC & China now. ABK staying multiplatform for 10 yrs but funded and supported by MS is a good deal, for SLC concerns and better quality games. Here's hoping we still see CoD machine relaxed so everyone get a better game, including Nintendo.

 

[Trup1aya]

It's hard to say without getting a direct look at the EC's Statement of Objections. Would assume that if MS is including the rest of ABK's line-up, it's because they think it will move the needle.

Click to shrink...

Just to sweeten the pot and address the concern of making content exclusive.

Click to shrink...

I can understand why MS would try the kitchen sink if all else was failing, but I can't see why anyone who believes ownership of COD would lesson competition would change their tune of the owner agreed to put significantly less impactful IP under contract. The alleged COD related harm would still exist.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

It was only down YoY for the prior quarter, which is easily explainable given the lack of any major 1st party releases during the quarter and continued hardware shortages for the Series X, compared to the prior year where Halo Infinite and FH5 launched. Every other quarter has seen growth. MAU are up, GP is up etc.

Click to shrink...

Combined with how well Sony is doing, a YOY drop of 13% is alarming. It's the worst drop Xbox has had in years.

 

[Helix]

This isn't the level of discourse I've come to expect of this thread, or even close to it. Bringing fanboy mudslinging into this discussion is unhelpful and not at all what the OT is supposed to be for.

Click to shrink...

it was a commentary on how stupid that tweet was, don't know how that is Console War BS.

 

[vixolus]

Which is why I said it depends on the numbers. If this deal falls through, MS is going to pay ABK a breakup fee of 3bn dollars, which is a loss of 3bn from the gaming division; a division that is now growing slowly, losing marketshare and not hitting any of the milestones it was supposed to hit (gamepass subs). If I'm Nadella, I am beginning to consider at the very least if making gaming hardware is still worth it (it is a loss-making part of Xbox). I could easily drop the hardware, go full third party, get plugged into the market of the dominant console (PS), and see software sales soar! Halo on PS makes it culturally relevant again. Software sales on PS (and Nintendo) rake in the profits, the share price goes up, stockholders are happy, Win-win for everyone!

NB: I am not saying this will happen, just suggesting that it is a real possibility.

Click to shrink...

Is it a loss from the gaming division? Was the $70B marked as money "from" the gaming division (no, obviously). I doubt they would post the loss on the gaming division itself. idk

 

[modiz]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:



- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

Click to shrink...

To be frank, this article mostly reads like lawyers with outside knowledge of the deal commenting on it based off past cases and their own views as well as some details that sound to me like they could come from MS's side, rather than directly reflecting the regulators thoughts on the deal.
Hence why title is also much more cautious than other similar headlines.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:


- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

Click to shrink...

How do they know this? Is it from leaks?

I also disagree that CMA and EU rulings being inconsistent is surprising. It happened multiple times in the past few years.

To be frank, this article mostly reads like lawyers with outside knowledge of the deal commenting on it based off past cases and their own views as well as some details that sound to me like they could come from MS's side, rather than directly reflecting the regulators thoughts on the deal.
Hence why title is also much more cautious than other similar headlines.

Click to shrink...

It reads to me the lawyers got a hold of the EC's Statement of Objections and can source ongoing negotiations with the EU.

 

[Windrunner]

This isn't the level of discourse I've come to expect of this thread, or even close to it. Bringing fanboy mudslinging into this discussion is unhelpful and not at all what the OT is supposed to be for.

Click to shrink...

Are you sure you're talking about this thread?

 

[Macca]

This isn't the level of discourse I've come to expect of this thread, or even close to it. Bringing fanboy mudslinging into this discussion is unhelpful and not at all what the OT is supposed to be for.

Click to shrink...

it was a commentary on how stupid that tweet was, don't know how that is Console War BS.

Click to shrink...

 

[HeWhoWalks]

Same.

It also sets a wonderful precedent in case any other platform (perhaps a market leader?) wants to acquire a publisher and make their product exclusive.

Click to shrink...

Microsoft already has a publisher with exclusive games, and thus far, they're the only console company who has done this. Beyond that, any other situation won't have a property like Call of Duty (unless we're talking about, perhaps, GTA).

The bottom line is this is about CoD, not simply buying a publisher.

 

[christocolus]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:



- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

Click to shrink...

Good. I hope the deal goes through. It is just Sony and Google against this now.

 

[Lant_War]

Microsoft already has a publisher with exclusive games, and thus far, they're the only console company who has done this. Beyond that, any other situation won't have a property like Call of Duty (unless we're talking about, perhaps, GTA).

The bottom line is this is about CoD, not simply buying a publisher.

Click to shrink...

Depends, you could make the same argument about IP for what they designated the "big 4" (Acti, EA, T2, Ubi)

 

[Windrunner]

Good. I hope the deal goes through. It is just Sony and Google against this now.

Click to shrink...

Why are you so invested in it going through?

 

[Det]

Combined with how well Sony is doing, a YOY drop of 13% is alarming. It's the worst drop Xbox has had in years.

Click to shrink...

But it's explainable. For one reason or another, PS5 stock dramatically improved and they launched their fastest selling game in history with GoW Ragnarok, combined with a completely empty quarter in the prior year in terms of software + major hardware shortages, hence the more dramatic YoY growth. A single quarter YoY drop isn't unexpected for Xbox given their circumstance in that quarter compared to the prior year (literally the opposite scenario compared to PS); if it continues over multiple quarters with major releases, then that'd be a trend worth discussing.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

Depends, you could make the same argument about IP for what they designated the "big 4" (Acti, EA, T2, Ubi)

Click to shrink...

You could, but it would hold less weight. CoD is consistently the biggest 3rd party game year-after-year. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward, as more pubs will inevitably be purchased.

 

[Bizzquik]

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

Click to shrink...

And there it is. Good stuff, Idas.
I've been waiting for Microsoft to propose that every Activision/Blizzard game would come to PlayStation for a set length of time.

Pushing Microsoft that far would be a 'win' that the CMA can hang its hat on. Everyone will have played the game the right way.

Sony will have done everything it could to squash the deal and would end up with essentially no material difference to the status quo for a decade.
Nintendo would see more Activision titles than it has currently.
Nvidia would get cloud gaming support from Microsoft/ABK for ten years, too.
Steam would continue to see more and more Activision releases.

I wonder if the EC and CMA would really take this deal.


Edit: This 10-year multi-plat compromise from Microsoft could also act as the path forward for Sony acquiring a publisher like Square Enix, too.

Yes, Sony is the market leader - so any publisher acquisition will also be contested by regulators. But that publisher will be smaller than Activision - as ACTV is the biggest third-party around. The 10-year multi-plat commitment gives everyone else time in the industry time to come up with a Plan B.

 

[Deeke]

Discount of Microsoft's price? Does this mean Microsoft will give Sony a better cut?

 

[Bradbatross]

Let the roller-coaster begin again :p

Lots of new bits of info:



- One lawyer following the case noted that the EC accepted similar remedies last year in Meta's acquisition of Kustomer. This lawyer also expects way more opposition from the CMA, who left the door "barely open".

- A second Brussels-based lawyer believes that the remedies offered by MS will be enough for the EC, noting that the timeline of the EU investigation is almost in step with the CMA: "The CMA is looking at a theory of harm that the EC has already dismissed so there are some differences on the substance, but I would be surprised if the final decisions are fundamentally inconsistent".

- It looks like the EC is only worried about competition being reduced in the markets for the distribution of console/PC games and PC operating systems (nothing about cloud gaming, then).

- The same second lawyer dismisses the concerns regarding COD because recent acquisitions in the audio-visual sector like the 21st Century Fox didn't focused on single money-spinning franchises.

- The second lawyer also says that MS is offering provisions ensuring that Sony gets the game at a discount of the Microsoft price and any new version of the game at the same time as MS.

- Google raised concerns again about the merger creating a very Windows centric environment and developers having to write for Windows. This lawyer believes that the EC has already decided that this concern doesn't make sense.

- A third lawyer believes that the EC identified several competition concerns and fails to see how opening COD to more partners will solve other issues.

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

The CMA is still the final boss, but it's starting to sound that the EC and China are going to approve the deal. It's also interesting that the EC maybe is not worried about cloud gaming.

Click to shrink...

The deal's back on track! Lol

 

[Geode]

Is this guy for real?
View: https://twitter.com/LumberjackRy/status/1630246447139659777

Click to shrink...

If this is true, then that's Sony's right. But for me personally, Sony buying Take-Two wouldn't affect me much. They pretty much just make GTA and Red Dead, both series I can live without, but if I some how get the itch to play the newest GTA or Red Dead I do have a PS5 to play them on.

 

[Alcander]

I wonder if the 10 year guarantee for all ABK games is all current franchises, or current and future? That seems extremely generous.

 

[Depressed Panda]

Is this guy for real?
View: https://twitter.com/LumberjackRy/status/1630246447139659777

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Wasn't he the one who said that Sony will acquire
Square
CDPR
And other until 2030?

 

[Simon-chan]

If this is true, then that's Sony's right. But for me personally, Sony buying Take-Two wouldn't affect me much. They pretty much just make GTA and Red Dead, both series I can live without, but if I some how get the itch to play the newest GTA or Red Dead I do have a PS5 to play them on.

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It's not true, but even if it was, this guy wouldn't know jack about it.

Wasn't he the one who said that Sony will acquire
Square
CDPR
And other until 2030?

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Capcom and Sega as well.

 

[meenseen84]

There are statements from Spencer about conversations with Nadella talking about the importance of the brand of Xbox. When the younger generation thinks about Microsoft they want to have them think about Xbox, not Microsoft Office.

Xbox is one of the main pillars of Microsoft, even if it is not making them the most money. It goes beyond financial returns. Lots of innovation is in gaming. The fact that a respected journalist puts that out there without a real source to back that up is surprising.

 

[Mega1X]

If this is true, then that's Sony's right. But for me personally, Sony buying Take-Two wouldn't affect me much. They pretty much just make GTA and Red Dead, both series I can live without, but if I some how get the itch to play the newest GTA or Red Dead I do have a PS5 to play them on.

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IDK. GTA 6 on all platforms is a gold mine that Take2 would like not to lose. It makes bank.

 

[jroc74]

- It looks like MS/ABK will propose (to the EC and likely the CMA) an official package that will compromise the offer of a ten-year license for all ABK games. This remedy will be marked tested (as usual) and they expect the acceptance of the majority of the market with one or two exceptions that shouldn't be enough to block the deal, that would go forward with a conditional clearance.

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Interesting. I mean....some of us suggested MS doing this to get the deal done.

Or again, if its compared to Minecraft...Minecraft is multi platform seemingly forever....

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I can understand why MS would try the kitchen sink if all else was failing, but I can't see why anyone who believes ownership of COD would lesson competition would change their tune of the owner agreed to put significantly less impactful IP under contract. The alleged COD related harm would still exist.

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I agree with you. I don't think it will make much of a difference.

Like you said, MS just wants to add as much as possible to appease them. It makes sense from MS' perspective.

 

[stormfire]

If the deal gets blocked they'll probably be interested in getting other mobile publishers

Phil Spencer says the Xbox business will become ‘untenable’ if it remains ‘irrelevant’ on mobile | VGC

The Xbox boss claims the Activision Blizzard deal is primarily about Candy Crush…

www.videogameschronicle.com

 

[Trup1aya]

Discount of Microsoft's price? Does this mean Microsoft will give Sony a better cut?

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Sony already told the CMA that the discounted margin they negotiated with ABK would likely go away if MS owns ABK.
So sony would get a better cut by default.

 

[writhingcorpse897]

If this is true, then that's Sony's right. But for me personally, Sony buying Take-Two wouldn't affect me much. They pretty much just make GTA and Red Dead, both series I can live without, but if I some how get the itch to play the newest GTA or Red Dead I do have a PS5 to play them on.

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Don't see why T2 would be selling, though.