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TIL: Lumber prices are absolutely skyrocketing (up 232% since the pandemic and still rising) [Up2: Back down]

TheZynster

TheZynster

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Oct 26, 2017
13,331
jon bones

jon bones

Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,321
NYC
Glad I finished 90% of my remodeling, but I suspect my basement isn't going to get finished this year.

Small price to pay, I'm just so glad I was able to move into the house.
 
Coolluck

Coolluck

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Oct 27, 2017
5,542
We're getting a composite fence this summer because it was about the same price as wood. Worth the less maintenance that comes with it.
 
Flambe

Flambe

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Oct 25, 2017
1,192
Yeah, I run trains out of northern BC and while it made sense at the beginning of the pandemic that lumber mills up here curtailed shifts and some shut down I'm surprised they haven't ramped up to full production and reopened yet.

The jobs themselves in a mill are by nature quite separate from each other so not like that's an excuse to be closed when other industries where people work in closer proximity are open.

I'd expect production to come back in a big way, though we are having a problem with pellet plants getting license to log whole trees in order to chip and then turn into pellets where before they just used by-products of the mills like end blocks and waste wood.
 
Dekuman

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,087
Good for our logging industry here in British Columbia. They've been in dire straights for years with mill closures.
Entire logging/mill towns have been decimated by COVID and even before that when housing buil;ds was expected to be slowed
Glad this has happened.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,343
I work in commercial construction and everything is going crazy right now for material costs. I just had to change epoxy resin tops out for a project because there is a global resin shortage apparently and our subcontractor anticipated it taking 2x as long (like up to 20 weeks) and 50% more expensive than originally planned.
 
Dr. Feel Good

Dr. Feel Good

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,996
Isn't this more related to a bullwhip effect? We stopped all manufacturing and supply chain for 6 months from April to September last year with the world basically operating off reserve inventory. Now as things are coming back we are 6 months behind and the prices reflect that.
 
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GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

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Oct 25, 2017
13,835
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Dr. Feel Good said:
Isn't this more related to a bullwhip effect? We basically stopped all manufacturing and supply chain for 6 months from April to September last year with the world basically operating off reserve inventory. Now as things are coming back we are basically 6 months behind and the prices reflect that.
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That's probably what it is.
 
Skel1ingt0n

Skel1ingt0n

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,131
BringBackSonics said:
I wonder if Composite (Trex) might actually be cheaper then regular wood? Might be worth it due to durability, even if initial cost is a little higher. Made our deck out of trex
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I got three deck quotes about two months ago. Work that a neighbor did about five years ago for $15k.

Quotes were of slightly higherquality/fully featured, so I anticipated $20-$22k.

$55k
$65k
$59k

El oh el. Fuck that.

composite was indeed cheaper, but only taking about $2k off each quote.
 
dubc

dubc

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,441
Seattle
I noticed this recently as I was going to build some outdoor patio furniture out of cedar 2x4's and 2x6's. May turn out cheaper to just buy premade stuff than make it out of wood, didn't think that would happen, lol.
 
Muppet of a Man

Muppet of a Man

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Oct 27, 2017
7,756
A lot of this inflation should be corrected when Covid-19 is under better control. Most is due to understaffing in key resource and manufacturing industries (due to Covid-19), logistical/international shipping issues (again, Covid-19 related), and pent-up demand (again, Covid-19 related).
 
Maligna

Maligna

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Oct 25, 2017
8,906
Canada
I work at the head office in the marketing department for a building supplies company (similar to Home Depot) and we can't put up anything on our social channels without people yelling at us about lumber prices.
 
Prax

Prax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,765
Lucky me I am in the middle of major renovations right now!!

I actually signed the contract in 2019 (with only deposit, not yet paying for materials), but guess what happened inbetween getting permits and finally breaking ground? lol

The year+ delay has cost me dearly. I had to pay an extra 20k for lumber even after the contractor ate half of the costs of the rise in price.

This will only lead to a new baseline.
I was lucky I got my windows in at the beginning of the year. Prices have probably gone up 10% since and probably won't ever go back down.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
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Oct 25, 2017
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BringBackSonics said:
I wonder if Composite (Trex) might actually be cheaper then regular wood? Might be worth it due to durability, even if initial cost is a little higher. Made our deck out of trex
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I did a small Trex ground level deck last year and even then it was about the same or slightly cheaper than wood. So I was like why not that, which means zero significant maintenance for me!
 
MrCheezball

MrCheezball

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Aug 3, 2018
1,376
Landy828 said:
Wife and I were going to build a house.

We're no longer building a house.
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This is us. It's going to cause a crazy logjam in the housing market. There is no inventory to speak of in my zip code. We planned on buying an in progress/spec build, and have canceled those plans, which means our desirable home can't go up on the market.
 
yogurt

yogurt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,194
We had to replace our fence and it was expensive as fuuuuuck because of this. Would've waited if we could, but foundation repairs involved digging and destroying part of the old fence.

Needless to say we're avoiding anything else involving lumber as long as we can.
 
take_marsh

take_marsh

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,429
Really wanted to think lumber prices would drop back to normal this year to build something pretty big with my parents. That shit ain't happening.

And the wages ain't going up so generally anyone who ain't rich is simply falling further away from the upper-class (as intended). It's just all a big shit show.
 
mjc

mjc

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,918
GoldenEye 007 said:
Seems like Covid threw off a lot of supply chains and completely changed markets in ways that were hard to predict.
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Yup, plus the boosted demand for a lot of home-based repairs and renovations in that period. Throw in the continued pandemic and shipping issues and you got a stew going.
 
Teiresias

Teiresias

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,326
Been meaning to get all of my fascia replaced, so this probably would push me toward PVC or composite.
 

Deleted member 8579

Oct 26, 2017
33,843
I notice there wasn't much supply and no idea when the next lot was coming in when I was building decking the other week.

Maybe pubs and people at home are all in on decking with the pandemic outside thing, I dunno.
 
sfedai0

sfedai0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,233
Welp, I was thinking about renovating my condo kitchen and even saving money by not putting in any upper cabinets. Any savings I would see from that would be wiped out from the insane prices now.
 
Chucker

Chucker

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,408
Maryland
Was gonna do a deck in the back yard with my tax return money but looks like I'll be doing a paver patio instead.

It's bonkers.
 

QuigleyMcShine

Member
Jan 29, 2018
9,595
Yep, we got a deck back in December and several of the builders we got quotes from just stopped offering lumber because the price actually became higher than Trex/composite.
 
thewienke

thewienke

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Oct 25, 2017
16,296
TheZynster said:
The way things are going it's looking more like a super inflation. Get ready for a $10 loaf of bread
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Unless business school completely failed me, I'm not sure it's really inflation if prices drop once supply actually meets demand. Otherwise we would have to claim a deflationary environment on the back end and going around claiming that deflation is happening is a great way to tank the economy.

I think if prices don't drop once supply meets demand then we can totally call it inflation.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

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Oct 25, 2017
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Mcfrank said:
They certainly have some factor if people are using their stimulus on home improvement projects which is straining supply.
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Not really a direct one, though. Nothing about them forced people to do home projects. The lack of them also likely meant a near complete collapse of the economy beyond just the service sector.
 
Cotton McKnight

Cotton McKnight

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,719
Siloam Springs
Last summer I ran the numers and the lumber cost to build my own fence for my home was around $2300. Now, I don't even want to consider it for this summer. likely going to wait for next year, or when the prices drop.
 
Mcfrank

Mcfrank

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Oct 28, 2017
15,422
GoldenEye 007 said:
Not really a direct one, though. Nothing about them forced people to do home projects. The lack of them also likely meant a near complete collapse of the economy beyond just the service sector.
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How is people doing DIY projects and home renovations with thousands of dollars in free government money not a direct factor on increasing demand on a product? In the article right above, increased home improvement projects is listed in the first paragraph as a factor.
 

DonnieTC

Member
Apr 10, 2019
2,383
I had a cedar privacy fence put up over a year ago and my neighbor with a similar plot was looking to do the same recently. He told me what quotes he was getting and it was over triple what mine cost. Insane.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,835
Texas
Mcfrank said:
How is people doing DIY projects and home renovations with thousands of dollars in free government money not a direct factor on increasing demand on a product? In the article right above, increased home improvement projects is listed in the first paragraph as a factor.
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I mean, there is a pandemic that caused production to be affected. And to help stop the spread, many workers were sent home. Those are like 95% of the issues (percentage completely out of my ass). From there, people are going to find ways to do stuff. And it just so happened to be home projects. That was likely coming with or without extra cash. And nothing about the extra cash forced people into any one area. It could have just as easily been hiking or bike riding. Or video games which was always going to have higher demand last year due to a new generation starting - but that still got hit by production issues.

Other industries have been affected too due to supply chain issues - both production and demand. That's not because of stimulus checks and unemployment assistance. It's just that a global pandemic kind of threw seemingly fragile supply chains completely out of whack.
 
steejee

steejee

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,998
Landy828 said:
Wife and I were going to build a house.

We're no longer building a house.
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We were considering it after getting tired of the house hunt and having a bad experience with a bid on a house we really wanted.

We did end up getting the house after a somewhat dramatic few days (basically flaky sellers).

On the one hand I was kinda getting into the idea of designing a place, on the other at best we'd be starting construction around now, so....yeah. Glad we got the house...

Squirrel Killer said:
YouTube's algorithm has been suggesting a bunch of hyperinflation panic videos to me. I've been writing them off as right wing panic merchants, should I actually be listening to them?
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While we could certainly face stretches of high inflation, hyperinflation doomsaying is as old as money and I expect most of the current doomsayers are trying to make money off their predictions rather than trying to ensure people are well prepared for economic uncertainty.
 
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