It'll be divisive but if the best case scenario happens and remain wins A50 will be revoked. That'd mean restarting a whole bunch of shit and by which point even some Brexiteers would feel exhausted restarting everything again. That should at least put the Tories on the back foot. If Remain doesn't win though then Labour is fucked.
I want to say kudos to any british leftie. Because these kind of posts are already making me cuestion my sanity and Ive only been around UK politics for a few months. I cant imagine how tiring stuff like this might be after years of reading it over and over again
Astronomically worse. Labour's issues aren't in Remain areas, completely alienating all Leave voters would destroy what little momentum they've got going. Not to mention having a centrist manifesto that would fail to energise a youth vote. Honestly, everything you said would have resulted in Labour circling the low 20s in most polls.
It depends on a lot of things that we can't really predict. My guess is that all the major parties would run on manifestos that largely ignored that Brexit was ever a thing except for the BXP who would soak up some of the gammon vote for real this time which would damage the Tories a lot.
What would the tories campaign on? You can see even now how shambolic their campaign is currently with only Brexit being a resonating feature. Restarting Brexit wouldn't be a vote earner at that point because people would be very tired.
Basically the only thing that potentially screws them is the Brexit party but that's also a double edged sword against labour and comes down to a per constituency basis. Either way even in the absolute best case scenario for labour things would be way too tight.
Making it a Brexit vs. No Brexit election is exactly what would guarantee Johnson a majority. This election isn't about that and should never be about one issue, one of the things that has helped Labour the most is pushing the NHS issue.
The Tories screwed a lot of people over. New Labour offered change (Thiiiings can only get BETTA!). New Labour then distracted itself with WAR, while the towns Thatcher screwed over continued to rot away...
Brexit is the sole reason Labour is doing badly. Tories would be getting their ass kicked currently if the brexit issue didn't exist as it's the only thing holding them together. Austerity has tangibly damaged the country to the point where the word is toxic politically. The issue is the immediate threat of brexit allows people to ignore all that.
There was a registered to vote percentage posted earlier. Which implies improved (maybe if the majority turn up) but not amazing turnout. The problem is these are youths that are answering polls which inherently means they're much more likely to be politically engaged and actually turn up to vote than youths that don't bother answering polls. So I highly doubt youth turnout to be better than response rate of these polls.
I mean more the "The polls are showing Labour doing badly because they're weighted towards a terrible Youth turnout" argument that keeps coming up. AFAIK that was based on someone misreading the data from one of the earlier polls and it seems to have stuck.
Roughly 50% of country want Brexit and a percentage of that are no deal nutters. The problem is over 60% of constituencies which need to be won to deliver mp's had a brexit majority in a referrendum and a lot of those are are in labour held constituencies. That makes any remain/brexit election is essentially a mine field for labour. That's why they've tried to avoid that framing at all costs.
It was based of a partial misreading even the analysis from the pollister assume you saw displayed their weightings were still skewered against anyone under 65 as it had decreased turnouts for those but improved turnouts for 65+ (which are primarily tory voters which would would most defintely skew your results.) So at least for the early poll it was talking about the skew wasn't anywhere near as bad as initially implied but that skew was definitely still there. As it still makes no sense to assume near uniform decreased turnouts for everyone else but improved turnouts even ever so slightly for 65+ in a winter election.
They can still be bigoted and led by the press, it doesn't just have to be one thing. The UK is a very bigoted country any one denying this is part of the problem.
That 40% is definitely wrong, the actual referendum itself had an absurd turnout as far as British politics go 72%.
