Kids are expensive + fear if you have complications in a state that will jail you if you have complications.
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US fertility rate dropped to lowest in a century(1.62) as births dipped in 2023
- Thread starter CrazyDude
- Start date
My job involves meeting with clients and whether or not they have kids comes into play. Now, there is a bit of self-selection against kids for the people I work with so I wouldn't use my numbers to mean anything, but it is surprising to me that only about 10% of them have or are planning to have kids. Most of my clients are couples, the average age is early 40s, and the vast majority can afford kids, so if they had any intention it'd probably have happened.
My partner and I aren't having kids, though we could, and neither are most of the couples I know.
My partner and I aren't having kids, though we could, and neither are most of the couples I know.
I don't want kids because I don't want to have to take care of something. My partner doesnt want to have kids because of the effect it would have on their body + the lose of freedom. Both completely valid reasons. On my end, the disinterest in the responsibility likely stems from how much I value my free time away from work and the idea of giving that up in any context is simply not an option and the only scenario I can see myself changing my view is if I simply didn't have to work to live in society. But that would still require my partner wanting to go through the physical anguish and that likely is also never going to happen. So basically no set of circumstances exist where kids will ever be in the cards for us. Whatever happens when we're old will happen, ain't nothing we can do about it.
Conversely, in about 20 couples I'm friends with through high school-college-post, about 14/20 have kids. We're late to the party in our late 30 's.
It actually kind of is that simple. We've seen a steady rise of LARC bc, and a steady decline in unplanned pregnancies which at one point accounted for 51% of pregnancies in the country in the late 20th century. Access to abortion also allows for 40% of unplanned pregnancies to be terminated.
I'm sure there are a multitude of reasons why people do not want to be pregnant or plan to have children, but it's simply easier to plan to not have children than ever before (or well that's currently being eroded but it has been) no matter the reason why you want or don't want children.
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I should also add that teenage pregnancies and births have significantly declined from 15% of total births in 1980, to 11% in 1990, to <5% in 2020. I always keep these things in mind when I see panic over fertility rate decline discussions because the alternative of yesteryear did not seem that great.
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"Fertility rate" can sound a little misleading because it kinda sounds like it's implying how biologically capable people are of conceiving, when that's not what it means.
Lots of "fertile" people just not wanting to have kids.
Lots of "fertile" people just not wanting to have kids.
What really happened is that as countries develop and individuals get more educated, rich, and independent, having kids is no longer an imperative for your own future survival nor do they allow you to climb the social ladder as fast as you could yourself.
It used to be having kids was necessary because they could help you do work and lessen your load as they age.
Because you needed someone you trust to take care of you when you're old and having many kids increases the chances of getting that help.
Because having lots increases the chances one of them could make it rich and so that lifts up the whole family.
Greater health conditions means you don't need as many "back up" kids because you aren't as afraid of a very real possibility some won't make it past infancy. More education and access to abortion and contraceptives means less accidental kids and longer planning. Our complex world and need for more and more hours of labor from everyone adult is at odds with female reproduction as there's a timer.
A bigger family also increases your power in the village, we no longer have the village, just the atomized nuclear family where both parents need to work.
The most efficient way to climb the social and financial ladder is to work on yourself, not pouring all your time and energy into kids.
You'll notice that some of these don't apply as strongly among the poor, the ones with higher birth rates.
The math for kids doesn't work anymore.
The scale of this is unprecedented in human history and people really need to understand that. We've created a world that takes up so much energy and makes us so individualist that the old incentives that led humanity to grow have been broken.
It would be one thing if it was just population decline, that's manageable. What's happening is a greater proportion of old people to young people, no economic system works with that, there will be a greater burden on a smaller and smaller portion of young people until society breaks or technology saves the day.
It used to be having kids was necessary because they could help you do work and lessen your load as they age.
Because you needed someone you trust to take care of you when you're old and having many kids increases the chances of getting that help.
Because having lots increases the chances one of them could make it rich and so that lifts up the whole family.
Greater health conditions means you don't need as many "back up" kids because you aren't as afraid of a very real possibility some won't make it past infancy. More education and access to abortion and contraceptives means less accidental kids and longer planning. Our complex world and need for more and more hours of labor from everyone adult is at odds with female reproduction as there's a timer.
A bigger family also increases your power in the village, we no longer have the village, just the atomized nuclear family where both parents need to work.
The most efficient way to climb the social and financial ladder is to work on yourself, not pouring all your time and energy into kids.
You'll notice that some of these don't apply as strongly among the poor, the ones with higher birth rates.
The math for kids doesn't work anymore.
The scale of this is unprecedented in human history and people really need to understand that. We've created a world that takes up so much energy and makes us so individualist that the old incentives that led humanity to grow have been broken.
It would be one thing if it was just population decline, that's manageable. What's happening is a greater proportion of old people to young people, no economic system works with that, there will be a greater burden on a smaller and smaller portion of young people until society breaks or technology saves the day.
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The world is incredibly overpopulated. I fail to see how it's a bad thing that we are below the replacement rate, frankly.
I think a highly underrated reason beyond moneys tie to consumerism is time. I think people just have too much "fun" things to constantly consume and they couldn't imagine giving that up. It feels like societally the collective consciousness is coming around to the fact we have finite lives in comparison to pre-internet people. I think that need to soak up as much as we can before we go is a big part of modern culture.
Turns out people value money, time, and freedom. That, coupled with an increasingly pessimistic view on the outlook for our planet, makes the question of how valuable/worthwhile/responsible it is to bring new life into the world harder and harder to answer for many.
OP
OP
Our entire economic and welfare system is based around having enough working young people to pay for the elderly who can no longer work. Free health care, retirement pensions, and other social welfare will collapse. Not to mention our entire economic system is based on growth.
I agree it's much easier and that is certainly a significant factor.
While there are economic concerns about demographic decline, it's certainly not a concern over everything else going on. A properly designed immigration system can certainly mitigate some of that without much impact on the country of origin (will depend on the origin country's demographics/development).
But maybe operating a societal structure that operates akin to a Ponzi scheme isn't the best idea.
But maybe operating a societal structure that operates akin to a Ponzi scheme isn't the best idea.
Me and my wife are late 20s / early 30s and make $150k+ between us, but can no way afford to have a kid right now. We definitely think we want them, but want to be making at least $200k+ to be more comfortable
Japan has already started seriously debating allowing in more immigration, something the 99% homogenous country has always been very hard on.
And why you ask? Japan is a super aged country with almost 30% of it's population over the age of 60. Mostly due to extremely low birth rates for the last 30 years.
There's not enough time.
I spent my 20s at school and grinding the career ladder. There wasn't even time to be dating seriously or even considering kids. Have a kid in my studio apartment I can barely afford? Right.
So now I'm in my early to mid 30s and I have a career, a wife, a house, I could totally start a family…But it's like, damn, I haven't even lived my life yet. I want to use this money and use this vacation time and see the world, reap some of these benefits I've earned. Not spend it doting on a child.
So maybe in my 40s? But now it feels like it's getting to be too old. Definitely too old to have 3-4 kids… maybe one only.
This is just from a man's perspective, I know women face a lot of challenges in this space especially career wise. And once they are able to think about kids they may be at an age where pregnancies are higher risk, and then there are the abortion laws.
I spent my 20s at school and grinding the career ladder. There wasn't even time to be dating seriously or even considering kids. Have a kid in my studio apartment I can barely afford? Right.
So now I'm in my early to mid 30s and I have a career, a wife, a house, I could totally start a family…But it's like, damn, I haven't even lived my life yet. I want to use this money and use this vacation time and see the world, reap some of these benefits I've earned. Not spend it doting on a child.
So maybe in my 40s? But now it feels like it's getting to be too old. Definitely too old to have 3-4 kids… maybe one only.
This is just from a man's perspective, I know women face a lot of challenges in this space especially career wise. And once they are able to think about kids they may be at an age where pregnancies are higher risk, and then there are the abortion laws.
It's that hard? I'm not trying to put you down or maybe there's something I'm missing when I see posts like these on affordability. I had a 6yo and a newborn when we made a combined income of 80-90k and made it through. This is about an 45 mins outside the GTA.
To be completely fair, the birth rate in the US at least is pretty abysmal since 1975 (!). There were 2 blips which almost got to the replacement level (2.1 IIRC), but the financial crisis took care of that, lol. The reason US population grows so much is because of immigrants, it would be literally declining without them.
Overall, better education for women, rising costs, better access to birth control will do that, pretty universal problem across half of the world and the rest is heading into the same direction as well. The main factor is education, I think it is the most important factor.
Overall, better education for women, rising costs, better access to birth control will do that, pretty universal problem across half of the world and the rest is heading into the same direction as well. The main factor is education, I think it is the most important factor.
There is a massive difference even within a generation. I saw a presentation recently that discussed how much more likely older millennials (38-43) vs younger millennials (28-33) were to having a "healthy" 401k, own property and have kids. Anecdotally, I find this true when comparing my college friends vs my brother's. Life has gotten a lot more expensive for the "younger" generation.
Laughing and excited to borrow this term moving forward.
Fundamentally USA is in very low fertility rate for 50 years straight, other developed countries are in a similar position. The only reason USA/Canada look so good in terms of population growth is the immigration. There is absolutely no reversal of this trend, women who receive education are infinitely less likely to have a lot of kids, if any, and to even discuss such a thing is reprehensible.
The solution at the government level is basically to attract foreigners and hoping that it will be enough. But the rest of the world is catching up in lowering the fertility, and who knows what's next after that.
So as soon as I stop having kids the rates go down?
Time to go wake up the wife. We got work to do.
Time to go wake up the wife. We got work to do.
The irony on top of that is that any parents *working at* said daycare likely aren't being paid enough to afford to have their kid there.
Well yeah, the US environment for having kids, economically speaking, is kinda fucked right now. This is regardless if inflation recently came to a slow or not.
I'm in the younger millennial cohort at 33. I now have a 13 and 7 year old.
I'm single and gay so I'm obviously not a metric here, but I can't imaging having a child right now if I were partnered up. Insurance goes up, groceries go up, cost of medicl care goes up, transportation goes up...wages, lol. Maybe some day these articles will be like "it's capitalism, actually."
Is there a comparison of trends for countries with robust safety nets and sane parental leave in comparison to the US?
Is there a comparison of trends for countries with robust safety nets and sane parental leave in comparison to the US?
If you didn't have kids before covid, which it was expensive then, it's off the rails now.
There is and it looks worse for them. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/birth-rate/country-comparison/
This Malthusian nonsense again; the world is not overpopulated..please stop saying this..it is literal misinformation.
It's less overpopulation and more "we don't take care of the population we currently have"
It may not be overpopulated, but it wouldn't hurt to have less population either.
Shit I know one older couple who finally had 1 boy at 42 M and 40 F. He told me he still didn't think it would be affordable but they knew they were running out of time and are hoping to wing it. That feeling/moment of "being established and financially set never came for them" as he put it. They're trying to have atleast another kid soon after.
We had our first at 20 (he's now about to be 21) my second just before 30.
Greatest thing my wife and I have ever done, period.
That being said, yeah, we live in a world nowadays that does not give a fuck about kids, so we get it.
Greatest thing my wife and I have ever done, period.
That being said, yeah, we live in a world nowadays that does not give a fuck about kids, so we get it.
sadly true
the problem is with it not being a steady decline, if the population pyramid is too wieghted towards ""useless" (economiclly speaking) elderly, that would make all the set systmes for taking care of them fail, not enough doctors, not enough money for pensions, not enough care houses for the elderly.
its a problem that could be easily accounted for since the effect of birth rate decline take a while to materliaze, but i have zero faith in any politician or government to do so because we live in quite an absurd world where dealing with climate change/ helpng poor people/ healthcare all are divisive tops
tldr: problem isnt that big of a deal if society prepares for it from this moment, i also have zero faith anything will be done