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Oct 25, 2017
10,738
Not sure if this is the right thread but I haven't seen the thread about the stimulus bill being passed but uh, after hearing that it might take five months to get paper checks, and finding out I botched my tax return as a mailed check, how do I uh...change that?

there will be an online irs portal to supply them your banking info
 

Scottt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,218
Perhaps an additional part of considering sphagnum's question might be the vote results since Super Tuesday with only Biden and Sanders in the race, where there has been an almost exact inverse split between voters over 45 or so and those under that age.

Maybe the answers that have already been provided also apply to that, but whatever the conditions of voters aged above 45 or 50 cause them to have different concerns from those who aren't.
 

TheAbsolution

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,392
Atlanta, GA
CBO has the most honest assessment of Q3 and beyond. Markets and investors want a V-shaped recovery - one in which we rebound rapidly - but the effects could linger far longer.
Precisely. It's like getting a tire blowout at highway speeds. Even if you don't hit anything else, it's still gonna take time to put on a new one and there was almost certainly damage done that you'll have to repair.
 

daedalius

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,061
Now we all need to wear masks even though there aren't enough masks for medical professionals?

Seems well thought out
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,956
It is way too early to be overly optimistic, but if things continue as they are then Trump is most likely looking at very high unemployment numbers alongside relatively anemic growth at best going into November. Based on the historical data we have for incumbents with bad economies heading into reelection, combined with how low Trump's approval figures have been throughout his presidency, it is hard to fathom how he manages to win.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
It is way too early to be overly optimistic, but if things continue as they are then Trump is most likely looking at very high unemployment numbers alongside relatively anemic growth at best going into November. Based on the historical data we have for incumbents with bad economies heading into reelection, combined with how low Trump's approval figures have been throughout his presidency, it is hard to fathom how he manages to win.
Because he'll outflank centrist Dems.
 

DinosaurusRex

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,953
what's crazy is DeSantis might luck out of absolute tragedy in Florida by the climate there. Certainly not for a lack of trying.
 

SpottieO

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,639
If churches are open on Easter it's going to be such a clusterfuck. I'm guessing a huge spike of infections in May
 

Allard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,934
what's crazy is DeSantis might luck out of absolute tragedy in Florida by the climate there. Certainly not for a lack of trying.

The only luck he would have is if it didn't hit florida like a literal category 5 hurricane WITH the previous restrictions in place. I can't think of worse possible advice then removing in person gathering restrictions for religious services on Easter in Florida; with all their mega churches, older populations and general communal out reach leading up to the service. I have a feeling come sometime in the future people are going to be seeing May 2020 as the Ron Santis Easter Plague when all is said and done. I legitimately fear for Florida and I hope most people won't fall into peer pressure to attend those services because of his idiotic decision.
 

SpitztheGreat

Member
May 16, 2019
2,879
It is way too early to be overly optimistic, but if things continue as they are then Trump is most likely looking at very high unemployment numbers alongside relatively anemic growth at best going into November. Based on the historical data we have for incumbents with bad economies heading into reelection, combined with how low Trump's approval figures have been throughout his presidency, it is hard to fathom how he manages to win.
It's depressing that it took a world-wide pandemic and depression levels of unemployment to give us a sliver of extra confidence. That said, November will still be too close for comfort.
 
Mar 18, 2020
2,434
Catching up on the thread always makes me glad I'm currently in a different time zone.

Anyway, I'd forgotten about Easter completely and I'm going to have to beg my immunocompromised elders to stay home...
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois

Our new poll with@progressmich finds that Woman from Michigan is outpolling Donald Trump by 37 points on their respective handlings of the coronavirus. 62% approve of Gretchen Whitmer to 28% who disapprove (+34) 46/49 approval for Trump (-3): https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/upl


Overall job approval ratings in Michigan-

54% approve, 34% disapprove for Whitmer

45% approve, 49% disapprove for Trump

In head to head Whitmer leads Trump 49-42 for better handling of virus:https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LE-Newsletter-Issue1.pdf …

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 48-45 in Michigan.

Gary Peters leads John James 45-38 in Senate race.

President undecideds are structurally Democratic- voted for Clinton by 28, voting for Peters by 26, give Trump 8-68 approval. Same sort of picture we've seen in most swing states
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
If those undecided voters only give Trump 8% approval, and they voted for Clinton by 20%+ and plan to vote for Peters by that margin, and Trump already loses MI by 3% without factoring them in, and since numerous polls have shown the HATE BOTH TRUMP AND BIDEN group (which I imagine these people to be) breaking for Biden... I think we'll win MI by a pretty comfortable margin.
 

LGHT_TRSN

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,154
Yeah, somehow I doubt that the virus preferring colder climates is going to matter when hundreds or thousands of people are packing into places of worship...
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,876
Posted yet? I thought this was a great read, with the opinion survey done by someone from the Data For Progress team

Why The Progressive Left Fits So Uncomfortably Within The Democratic Party

My only take is that instead of using Facebook ( social media is underregulated, neolibs agree on that ), Joe Manchin, and Ivy League are pretty terrible groupings for neoliberals in an opinion poll. I wish they had used stuff like Free Trade there instead. Really, there isn't nearly as much of a gulf from neoliberals to leftists as they exist in the Democratic party as this report makes it out to be-please see the nigh positive correlation to known Chief Neoliberal Shill Barack Obama to everyone.

Now there is a bigly jump between Chapo types and neoliberals, but that is a super small online slice and not representative of socialists in the Democratic party at all.
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says he's going to raise the interest rate on the new small business loans to 1% to help make the loans economic for banks.


.@stevenmnuchin1 says if we run out of money in the small business loan programs, he says the administration will go back to Congress for more funding.



.@stevenmnuchin1 says for those Americans who are "underbanked" there are other methods to get direct payments like prepaid debit cards. He says Treasury is working on that for those without accounts.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
This feels more like 2018 than 2016; but can't take it for granted
I think the only thing Trump has going for him that the 2018 Republicans didn't is presidential incumbency - it's the reason I expect Congressional Democrats to outrun Biden by several points. However, the margin by which he's disliked is so great that I don't really expect it to save him, and it doesn't really matter if Biden beats Trump by one point in the swing states or twenty, whereas the Congressional Democrats will significantly benefit from better performance downticket.
 

Meauxse

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,251
New Orleans, LA
www.thedrive.com

This Venezuelan Patrol Ship Sunk Itself After Ramming A Cruise Liner With A Reinforced Hull

The Venezuelan ship appears to have been trying to seize the cruise ship, which is designed to safely sail through icy waters.

Most likely the U.S will make noise about it. No one died at least.

This shit is hilarious. Venezuela Navy ship rams cruise ship repeatedly and sinks. TBF, the cruise ship hull is 3 inch hardened steel.

The US is considering that design right now for the offshore patrol cutter (OPC) for Coast Guard. Probably not gonna make it now.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,876
Only way is if the increased heat/humidity aspect of the climate actually does affect the ability of this virus to spread rapidly.

Workers share shifts across multiple retirement communities and spread it that way. I am super worried about it getting into nursing homes, CDC should have regs about limiting shared shifts and doing temp checks/regular screening if they aren't in place already.

edit: Mnuchin is super bad but is like the most effective senior level bureaucrat in the admin right now. All good moves.
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois

Trump: "This is not the time for politics. Endless partisan investigations - here we go again" - have damaged the US; "witch hunt after witch hunt after witch hunt...and the people doing the witch hunts have been losing." (Pelosi announced a special committee on the response)

Trump: "This is not the time for politics."
Also Trump: "WITCH HUNT AFTER WITCH HUNT AFTER WITCH HUNT."
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
Workers share shifts across multiple retirement communities and spread it that way. I am super worried about it getting into nursing homes, CDC should have regs about limiting shared shifts and doing temp checks/regular screening if they aren't in place already.

edit: Mnuchin is super bad but is like the most effective senior level bureaucrat in the admin right now. All good moves.
Yeah for sure.

And we'll see with Mnuchin. He seems to be decent here. But there seems to be some stuff brewing with the SBA loan issues between feds and the banks. Plus the reported timeline of physical checks for those that do not have direct deposit with the IRS.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,876
DeSantis not closing churches is a big tell on how he sees the power structure set up in the state.

Those churches probably need Easter collections to keep solvent. Evangelical church budgets are a thing of thrilling comedy-usually run by people with little to no accounting experience, and full of loans, bonds, and capital intensive projects and a mix of fulltime/partime/contracting staffing costs. Even a church with just a handful of full time staff and a building can easily have a budget that would make a trained biz admin at a fortune 100 company running a area blush.

Those pastors demanded they keep the doors open, DeSantis complies. Pass the plate! Corona transmission by the contact doesn't matter because the fomite volume in a closed area with people singing hymns will doom everyone anyway.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,877


THE COW SAYS "MOO."

C to the izzO
V to the I D
That's the anthem, wash your damn hands up!

giphy.gif
 
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