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Surprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
That's going to turn off a lot of her support. Also means she's betting on the MAGAs keeping the reins of the party no matter how the election turns out.
Hope some of her never-Trumpers cross over to Biden and the rest stay home.
A lot of the Haley voters are never Trumpers, hence still voting for her in primaries months after she's been out. Those are anti-Trump votes more than pro-Haley votes I feel.
If even a fraction of them stay home, it can change everything.
If even a fraction of them stay home, it can change everything.
Shocker...Surprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
So sad to see.
The question is how many were actual "Haley voters" versus never trumpers. Especially in the late primaries after she dropped out, the latter seems more likely/numerous
Fuck you HaleySurprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
That's exactly why this is a big deal. Some of them will decide that if she, their latest "Never Trumper" focal point, will vote for Trump, then they should go ahead and do so as well. Whatever the number of Haley voters were going to not vote for Trump just went down. Hopefully not by much; we're going to need them.
Because it appears that this election is going to come down to Never Trumpers vs. Never Biden-ers. In other words, the people who DON'T vote are going to decide this election.
Fuck Nikki Haley. She 100% knows Trump is worse than Biden. She's decided that backing Trump is better for her career.
grain of salt and not a scientific sample size by any means but lot of those street interviews I saw during the primary with her "supporters" (i suppose college educated suburban women) those aren't going back into the Trump fold for anything. unless they have something to be really pissed about Biden and I assume Gaza isn't particularly hot on their mind
It probably would have been her best chance. Instead, she screwed over her never-Trump supporters and will still get scapegoated if he loses. At least if she stuck to her guns she'd have a shot at being the alternative to MAGA failure. Even if she didn't get the nom she'd have had book tours and speaking engagements. Now she'll be a pariah if he loses.
View: https://x.com/davidjoachim/status/1793407543902900551
No lie, Biden should genuinely run on this.
Fox News: "Biden and his radical justice department is killing small businesses!"
It's not November yet. How else would we see them except for when they say they won't vote for Trump and then don't vote for Trump like they didn't vote for him in the primary.
And no one is saying it's all of them. Significant can be in the hundreds when it comes to some of these swing states.
I mean honestly, how could we possibly show anything convincing? We can show results that people will say isn't indicative of the general and we can show polls that people won't believe and we can show interviews with the people themselves that people will say won't mean anything because Republicans fall in line. All we have is the November results then.
Agreed. Honestly it's one of those things I'm always confused politicians don't do more in general (go after universally unpopular things, like I feel like they did telemarketers awhile back but I'm not sure how successful it was).
Calling it now. She got paid the big bucks for this, and will be the VP. They knew they needed her voters, so they did everything in their power to appease her.Surprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
I'd be beyond shocked if she got VP at this point. Honestly I think the best she could hope for in his administration is something like Secretary of State.
I mean they have made zero attempts to get at her supporters. I don't think they promised her anything to get this from her. Maybe for a full throated endorsement she could, but just saying she'll vote for him?
I mean they have made zero attempts to get at her supporters. I don't think they promised her anything to get this from her. Maybe for a full throated endorsement she could, but just saying she'll vote for him?
I just can't see Trump giving her the VP spot when she did so well against him in the primaries. The dude is just too petty, insecure and vindictive. He'll make her grovel and squeeze an endorsement out of her, but she'll never get the #2 slot.
Maybe she thinks the endorsement wouldn't much matter in a 2028. Either Trump wins and she can more easily angle for some kind of position in the administration, or he loses and an insignificant amount of Republicans even care about this endorsement 4 years later because that's like an eternity in modern politics.
I don't think VP is a consideration in this decision, that's not on the table.
I don't think VP is a consideration in this decision, that's not on the table.
I would guesstimate that 70-80% of Haley voters were always going to vote for Trump in the end. The ones that were supporting her because they truly hate Trump aren't going to be swayed by her cowardice.
You saw the never-Trumper vote in 2020. Unless you think that there were people really enthusiastically voting for Biden 😒
We've seen it. It's a significant part of how Biden won in 2020.
Surprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
BREAKING NEWS: Water is wet!!!!
I'm now curious what my relative who wanted her to be the nom because she didn't like trump's behavior out of office thinks now; she's pretty much the type that this hope would fall under; hardcore trumper, never strayed from him, then post him leaving office she realized how much of a liar he was and barely anything she actually wanted got done, and absolutely does not want him back in under any circumstance and wanted haley/ron in because they were "less mouthy".
I really hope people like her don't just go for trump because their favorite person told them he's cool. Can't help but be a lot more worried now since I don't really believe that many republicans are anti-biden but also anti-trump. Hell, I'm a bit worried she's the VP now. More than likely though she's prepping to run in 2028 regardless of how this election goes or get a spot on trump's cabinet if he wins.
Quite honestly I'm already sick of this election cycle due to all the anxiety and it's five months away. I'm pretty much prepped for any outcome and i hate that. I remember during 2020 Covid pretty much cemented trump's loss due to how he handled that so I didn't worry much, and I can't help but worry he's gonna win again because he doesn't have that anchor this time around. Unless he barely runs any ads at all I don't know how it will not be a close race. I remember in 2020 even the hecking lincoln project was running ads against trump, as much as a scam as they were... Now there's hardly anything on in my area, except for local race ads that just started up this week.
Really hope Biden gets a head start on the ads.
There's a lot of talk about how never-trumpers won Biden the election, just like there's a lot of talk now about how never-Biden vote is going to elect Trump.
Really the only firm that does that kind of public retrospective is Pew, and I don't see anything suggesting that Republicans voting for Biden was significantly different than the change in the demographics. If anything, partisan support seemed to be extremely static and partisan turnout increasing.
Are there enough to snipe a state? Maybe. Margins are small. But this seems less of a movement than a hobbyhorse of the media. Maybe if Haley hadn't created a permission structure for her voters to vote for him, there might be something to it. But she's throwing in with him and they've got 6 months plus a convention to get everyone back in line.
On a more currently relevant note, I ran into another interesting bit about the difference between partisan issue polling vs eventual partisan candidate support that might be a useful lens for current polling.
Really the only firm that does that kind of public retrospective is Pew, and I don't see anything suggesting that Republicans voting for Biden was significantly different than the change in the demographics. If anything, partisan support seemed to be extremely static and partisan turnout increasing.
Are there enough to snipe a state? Maybe. Margins are small. But this seems less of a movement than a hobbyhorse of the media. Maybe if Haley hadn't created a permission structure for her voters to vote for him, there might be something to it. But she's throwing in with him and they've got 6 months plus a convention to get everyone back in line.
On a more currently relevant note, I ran into another interesting bit about the difference between partisan issue polling vs eventual partisan candidate support that might be a useful lens for current polling.
So fucking pathetic. She's definitely looking towards 2028Surprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
I'm voting for Biden no matter what bc there are two Supreme Court justices that are near and above 80. Of Trump wins then he can elect two more young insane justices that could destroy civil rights in the USA for decades. He would have a 5-4 majority no matter what.
They all suck, but Trump is literally America will die.
They all suck, but Trump is literally America will die.
Surprise... Surprise. Eventually they all fall in line
Nikki Haley says she'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race
Haley gave her blessing to her former GOP primary opponent after an address at the Hudson Institute on Wednesday.www.usatoday.com
Not to quibble, but Haley said she would be voting for Trump, but she's not necessarily endorsing him. If she was endorsing him, she would be also convincing her voters to vote for Trump. But instead she said Trump still has to earn their votes.
Maybe she will eventually give Trump her full endorsement and campaign for him, but right now she's basically taking the position of "I'm voting for the Republican ticket". Similar to other establishment toads like Bill Barr. I'm guessing she's doing this so she won't be a lightening rod if Trump loses, but still creates a little separation from the Tim Scotts of the party.
I don't think enough people realize how fucked we are for the rest of our lifetimes if Trump wins. Biden mega sucks (though his domestic policies have not been awful)…Trump though would be the end of all leftist progress that has been made in the last few decades.
The clapback is fantastic
View: https://x.com/whitehouse/status/1793409003500040701?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
View: https://x.com/whitehouse/status/1793409003500040701?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
Trump has benefited significantly by being isolated on his Truth Social blog. Most of the public just isn't privvy to how far he's jumped off the deep end. Bits and pieces of blog postings get reposted elsewhere, but it's not the same as 2016 - 2020 when his every utterance was force fed down the public's throat.
Part of the Democrats job this presidential campaign will be to bring back to the forefront just how crazy Trump is. Because at the moment Trump is still benefiting from former President amnesia bounce that every President enjoys even George W. Bush. .
Yeah that is a huge mistake. Trumps best shot is to chip away at the enormous democratic margins in cities.
Just looking back and not projecting forward, in extremely close elections, you can credit or blame basically any small minority for winning or losing an election. Democrats can genuinely blame Sanders primary -> Trump general voters in 2016, because they made up a small (12% of the democratic primary voters) but decisive minority in the electorate. Republicans can blame Trump 2016 -> to Biden 2020 voters who became "never again" or "never trumpers" for the small but decisive margin in a handful of states. But in both cases these largely weren't democratic defections in 2016 or Republican defections in 2020, they were independents who voted for Obama in 2012 and Sanders in 2016 (primary) and Trump in the general, and independents who voted for Obama/Romney (split) in 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
When margins are tiny, 10,000-100,000 votes across a handful of states, that small minority of independents are a decisive minority.
A phenomenon happened from 2016-2020 where trumps approval rating went down among the general electorate, but it went up among his own party. This is a rare phenomenon that has probably never happened for 75 years. When GWB approval rating went down, it went down dramatically with Republicans. When Obamas approval rating dropped in 2011, 2012, it dropped among Democrats. When Bidens approval rating dropped in 2021-2022, it took a dive among Democrats. On the other hand, when Trumps approval rating collapsed it grew stronger among Republicans. He had the highest party approval rating in the history of that type of polling, and the lowest approval rating in the first term among the general electorate, it was a phenomenon. It was driven by independents and non republicans increasingly disapproving of Trump and tepid republicans no longer identifying as republicans but identifying as independents. Those remaining republicans grew stronger in their dedication to Trump.
That does not play out in democratic politics because we're less of a cult than the Trump base of the GOP. Bidens approval is following conventional approval patterns, his approval dropped among all voters after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the delta wave of covid, and the rise in inflation. Past presidential disapprovals even among the Republican Party used to follow this too, it's a new phenomenon among republicans that it doesn't, and another indicator of how the party has changed dramatically in 20 years. The party used to still generally follow trends of the overall electorate, now it bucks trends.
I don't know how it'll play out in 2024. I'm not confident, but I'm also not pessimistic. I'm cautious and unsure.
I'm not too concerned with Haley endorsing Trump. She doesn't have a cult following that will do whatever she asks them to like he does. Now that she's falling in line, I think those who were voting for her are more likely to turn against her and vote for RFK or some other alternative again if anything.
I don't follow his logic, this seems like they're... giving up on seats? Why would you stop spending if you think your top of the ticket has it won?
Because they're not going to win those seats, so fighting there when you're in a cash crunch isn't very appealing.
He's saying that this is more indicative about what's actually happening in the state than what the polling says.
Kraushaar is a staunch democrats in disarray poster, so I read his tweet as saying Trump has it in the bag.
He's missing a comma if that's what he meant. I don't see how the fact the republicans thinking those seats are off the table is a positive for Trump in the state.
We'll see, but it'll probably a mix of votes. I didn't an actual Haley sticker in the wild yesterday, which was surprising insofar as anyone would make a conscripts effort to openly support someone so deeply uncharted and unserious.
Then again, I saw an aging Williamson sticker not too long before so there's a first time for everything.