• Light/Dark

What will be the next $1 Billion dollar film?

The Emperor

The Emperor

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,790
fetchimage

Ironic that Ep IX TROS is probably the last $1 Bill dollar film for a while.

If cinemas open it is thought they will have to with social distancing. Does this mean movies might have better legs? Or will foot traffic generally be depressed.

Black Widow/Wonder Woman were gonna be the next ones. But now who knows when they will come out.

Rumours of cinemas going back to normal in July are swirling around. So it may yet be Black Widow/WW
 
Trey

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,280
the first tentpole release to come out once theaters open back up.
 
$10 Bagel

$10 Bagel

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,481
whatever movie comes out when theaters open up.

After being stuck in a house for 3+ months people will make Meet the Spartans 2 a billion dollar movie
 
Wag

Wag

Member
Nov 3, 2017
11,638
Can a film make a billion from a home release?

What with pirating you'd think that would be pretty difficult.
 
Dalek

Dalek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
39,271
That's not going to happen for a long long time until at least when everyone is vaccinated and even then....
 
SeanM

SeanM

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,454
USA
I would say Fast & Furious 9 has the best chance, because it comes out in like May 2021.

I think a large chunk of movies scheduled for this year are going to end up delayed again. While I miss going to the movies, I'm in no real rush to head to a theater until a vaccine is out.
 
RolandGunner

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,552
Between social distancing rules and the recession I think movie theaters are in for a brutal couple of years. We may not see a billion dollar movie until Black Panther 2.
 
Speevy

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,480
Probably the rerelease of something they already released to get butts in the seats.
 

Deleted member 39374

Banned
Feb 1, 2018
5,083
The Emperor said:
I guess I still mean with social distancing

So half occupancy

Aint seeing the OW record being broken for a while...
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Lots of smaller theaters will go out of business or get bought out this year. There will be lots of consolidation in the theater biz after this. The whole business model might even have to fundamentally change. I don't see any blockbuster movies in 2020 maybe not even 21
 

LFMartins86

Member
Nov 7, 2017
2,186
Not for a long time. Things won't get back to normal for quite a few months and even then, I don't see people rushing to theaters.
 
Tobor

Tobor

Member
Oct 25, 2017
29,066
Richmond, VA
None any time soon. People are not ready to have the theaters open, let alone feel comfortable returning when they do reopen.

The most significant opposition is to reopening movie theaters, with 82 percent of Americans saying they should not be allowed to open up in their state.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

 

Deleted member 17388

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
12,994
I'm not sure about one in 2020, not many people would be willing to one to theatres until a vaccine is 100% rolled out...
And even if a vaccine were to appear tomorrow, and that's unlikely, it wouldn't be spread out for months.
What I could see is the release-to-VOD timeframe being shorter for these upcoming films (Wonder Woman, Black Widow, Tenet, Dune, etc.)

So $1B USD? Maaaybe Shang-Chi, if cinemas (and the world) are operating moistly normal by Summer 2021.
(And that's also expecting that exchange rates are favorable)

Otherwise, 2022 Thor 4 or Doctor Strange 2... If
 
Meg Cherry

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,348
Seattle, WA
Tobor said:
None any time soon. People are not ready to have the theaters open, let alone feel comfortable returning when they do reopen.



Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It's worth noting the context of this poll is asking about opening right now. Considering no new films are even scheduled to release until July, obviously nobody wants a theater open. It's pointless.

Meanwhile, other polling shows that a majority of audiences plan on going with the same frequency they used to, once theaters reopen with new releases. I still doubt this means Mulan makes a billion as people rush in, hungry for the cinema - but I think it means we'll see relatively normal theater behavior soon enough.
 
Smokey_Run

Smokey_Run

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,642
Tenet has a shot because it will be in a position to be the first blockbuster released in theaters.
 
SeanM

SeanM

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,454
USA
Mushroomer25 said:
Meanwhile, other polling shows that a majority of audiences plan on going with the same frequency they used to, once theaters reopen with new releases. I still doubt this means Mulan makes a billion as people rush in, hungry for the cinema - but I think it means we'll see relatively normal theater behavior soon enough.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

That's not exactly an unbiased source though, a cinema advertising company whos entire business model depends on theaters saying that everything will be fine.

I don't really see that happening tbh. It's too risky, feels like one of the easiest places to get coronavirus.

If theaters have rules saying to wear face masks, people will just take it off when they get inside the theater. Not like that rule could really be enforced inside a dark auditorium. Especially if they're selling concessions still, which require you to not wear a mask in order to eat/drink... Then you'll have people coughing into their hand, using that same hand to touch the armrests and seat recliner controls, touching the Coke freestyle touch screen to refill their soda and countless other things.

And it's not like movie theater staff (a lot of whom are disinterested high schoolers) are gonna be disinfecting all these seats and surfaces constantly. Movie theaters are fertile ground for germs.
 
AuthenticM

AuthenticM

Son Altesse Sérénissime
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
30,680
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Mulan disappointed at the chinese box office. There's a chance that chinese audiences reject the movie just like they did with other Hollywood movies that touched chinese culture.
 
ClickyCal'

ClickyCal'

Member
Oct 25, 2017
60,302
Mushroomer25 said:
It's worth noting the context of this poll is asking about opening right now. Considering no new films are even scheduled to release until July, obviously nobody wants a theater open. It's pointless.

Meanwhile, other polling shows that a majority of audiences plan on going with the same frequency they used to, once theaters reopen with new releases. I still doubt this means Mulan makes a billion as people rush in, hungry for the cinema - but I think it means we'll see relatively normal theater behavior soon enough.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
There are projections of the virus potentially killing more than 9/11 did as a whole....per day, not too far from now. July isn't going to be normal at all.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.