Interesting. Surely this movie's going to have legs. Cutting into cinema revenue with video on demand is weird.
Why? Everyone with FOMO is going to see this within a month. After that, those who see it in theaters are just looking to see something in theaters, or were going to see Top Gun in theaters regardless of it being available for home viewing.
The Lost City just went up despite being on P+ anyway. So it is possible for movies to have legs while being available at home after 45 days. Sing 2 had strong legs after going to VoD quickly also.
And at this point, if Paramount really felt they would lose a ton of money by putting it on P+ after Day 45, they wouldn't be pushing it. They have enough data between Scream, Jackass, Lost City and Sonic 2 to know this.
There's a home audience that is not going to just reluctantly go because the window is extended by 45 days. Just like it was silly for people to say theaters are dead, it's just as silly to think you can force that audience into the theater. They're two different audiences. 45 days is enough time to get fomo money, but bring up a second wave of relevancy for the movie.
Edit: Also 120 days is an absurd window for modern days.