They were doing just fine before the deal was announced, I don't see why it wouldn't go right back to where it was. Investors were confident in how the business was beiong run prior to the deal announcement.
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Bloomberg: Wall Street Is Betting That Microsoft-Activision Deal Will Fail
- Thread starter Biosnake
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I honestly looked at that post for a good minute trying to work out if it was sarcasm
Even if the deal doesn't go through the stock is gonna jump when they report MW2 sales, Warzone 2 players, Overwatch 2 player base, Diablo Immortal player base. Like there is so many things coming up for the company to make the stock jump and they have been at $95 before. The stock used to be constantly lower before.
I fully expect it to get push back and maybe even go to court, I do not expect it to fall through tho.
So they paid the 1+ billion penalty for fun? Of course they thought it would.
Yeah. I cannot see the federal courts (which are mostly republican appointees) overturning 40 years of anti-trust jurisprudence to stop MS from acquiring a video game company.
People need to realize this is not the same as Nvidia/Arm. Arm's technology is used in essentially all mobile devices, and Nvidia has like 80% of the GPU market. That was two monopolies joining together in ways that would further entrench their existing monopolies. Neither MS nor Activision has monopolies in the gaming space, and this deal does not protect Windows or Office (which are MS's two areas of dominance).
Keep in mind that Jason also said with conviction that this deal was horizontal integration and would be blocked when it was first announced. While there is an element of horizontal integration, that is not all the main issue here given the fact that neither MS nor Activision is a monopoly in game publishing. I think Jason overestimates his own understanding of these matters.
I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up having to peace-meal sell of the different IPs/Developers just to recover some of the Shareholder value.
If they are forced to start closing down some of the dev shops, I'm not so sure that's the best look for the government
The stock price isn't a concern for the regulatory agencies.
I don't see why the shareholders would vote against this
If this deal fails, it will be because of government regulations. And I think there's only a 15% chance of that happening.
If this deal fails, it will be because of government regulations. And I think there's only a 15% chance of that happening.
Acti stock would drop more of this fails right? So sure I guess some people are selling but doesn't that mean some people are also buying?
Gamers will never vote Democrat again if the Biden Administration sabotages their precious Game Pass.
I don't know if I Believe it will, the rich get what they want in the US, but if it did fail at the very least for one small moment we could all rejoice as Kotick wonders sadly "where will I get my moneybags and my next yacht" before he calls Meta for the next bid.
If somehow it did fail, would Microsoft have to pay a bunch anyway? Like how Nvidia paid a fee to ARM?
If somehow it did fail, would Microsoft have to pay a bunch anyway? Like how Nvidia paid a fee to ARM?
The stock has been in the low 80's/upper 70's since January, there is no movement to dictate anything
I'd rather have MS buy Activision than this deal failing and MS taking their $70b elsewhere and buy a publisher I potentially care about.
Well, I'd rather have MS not buying anyone.
Though I think this will go through, I'm sure MS has done their research before announcing the acquisition.
Well, I'd rather have MS not buying anyone.
Though I think this will go through, I'm sure MS has done their research before announcing the acquisition.
Tis is what I am wondering. If the chances of it going through are high, why aren't people buying up heaps of stocks? I feel it can't be very risky then for potential stock traders.
I mean Wallstreet is wrong all the fucking time. If it was vegas betting it would fail I would be far more worried.
It's not so much that they expect it to fail as that's it not perceived to be the absolute locked-in certainty that would see its share price trading closer to the offer price. There is a degree of risk being priced in, but that doesn't mean people necessarily think it will fail... just that there's a degree of uncertainty. And that higher degree of risk is due to FTC/regulatory concern.
It's being rounded out in the headline as 'market expects this to fail', but I think the reality is about degrees of risk and uncertainty, rather than any great certainty about it failing.
They wouldn't, but they're apparently at a significant discount vs the offer price compared to other acquisitions in recent years.
None of this is new though, wrt the discount and what it means about market sentiment... it's been like this since the acquisition was announced - I think Bloomberg is just noting it again because there's another milestone in the process today, in the shareholder vote (which is fully expected to pass).
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There is a lot of scrutiny surrounding the deal but all the arguments don't really seem hold any legal ground to me. Most of them boil down to something like 'we feel like this might be bad somehow' without having concrete arguments and examples to illustrate their points.
Nothing. It's going to be approved by the shareholders soon though so the regulatory process will come more into the fore. The stock price though suggests nothing. It was $81 the other day. There's huge volatility in the market right now.
And not to mention that Sony has announced their own competitor to Game Pass already. But if the FTC is willing to overstep their legal boundaries and look into worker conditions that is on them and it's up to MS to decide if they push back. Remains to be seen what the FTC does but we might know more before the end of the year.
The stock is still up 13% from the point the acquisition was announced, as stock that was going downhill. This reads more like a pessimistic speculation than actual news. This won't fall through.
imagine the Midterms being about Game Pass. love this dystopia!
About $3 billion if it falls on MS, ~$2 billion if it's ACTI/Blizz IIRC.
It's probably more useful to mainstream Bloomberg audiences than it is to Era weirdos like us
It's up 13% in a year where everything is down and Activision just announced a poor report. Gives me even more confidence.
I doubt investors care about the quality of the game, which is what I am talking about here.
The quality of the game was the main reason it sold lesser then expected.
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