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MrHedin

MrHedin

Member
Dec 7, 2018
6,860
==== DAY 5 VOTES ====
Day Start - Day End

Conditional-Pancakes (4 votes)
Neki - #2,075
Vincent Alexander - #2,076
anexanhume - #2,096
LaunchpadMcQ - #2,097

Vincent Alexander (1 votes)
Conditional-Pancakes - #1,922 #1,926
Conditional-Pancakes - #2,073

Not voting: CaptainNuevo

Post Counts:
anexanhume: 74 Conditional-Pancakes: 66 LaunchpadMcQ: 59 Vincent Alexander: 51 Neki: 50 CaptainNuevo: 25

Current Countdown:
1o3ur6um9j



Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
 
Day 5 End
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MrHedin

MrHedin

Member
Dec 7, 2018
6,860
Weird, I just saw some cops come and arrest Pancakes, she must have some something unwaffle. Still the contest goes on!

Conditional-Pancakes has died

What did the man kneel on the Christmas lights? He wanted to put up neon lights this year.

Welcome to Dad Joke Mafia!

You are Clark Griswold and you are Vanilla.

You are aligned with the Good but Also Flawed Dads (that is Town).

Look, these lights aren't going to put themselves up so you don't have time to do anything else. You do have the ability to vote each day though.

You can access the game thread here:

Break a leg out there!

Day starts in:

naokn6jckf


Night actions are due two hours before day start.
 
Day 6 Start
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MrHedin

MrHedin

Member
Dec 7, 2018
6,860
Bad news everyone, Neki was found dead in his bed under fishy circumstances. Speaking of fishy, do you know what you call a dead fish that served in the military? A marine corpse.

Neki has died


I asked a couple of marlins for some help but they never came over, they were two sailfish.

Welcome to Dad Joke Mafia!

You are Marlin and you are Vanilla.

You are aligned with the Good but Also Flawed Dads (that is Town).

You are waaaay too busy over-protecting your kid that you really don't have time to do any other actions. You do have the ability to vote each day though.

You can access the game thread here:

Break a leg out there!

Day 6 begins

Day ends in:

81ynj31gws


Majority is 3

Vote tool: https://vote.fireblend.com/515562/#[/highlight]
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
Ok, to update Captain and VA, if the forbidden donut mechanic specifically involves the cop, then Launch isn't the cop. Nothing bad happened. If it's some other mechanic, who knows. I stole a glazed donut with chocolate frosting and rainbow sprinkles.
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,688
if the forbidden donut mechanic specifically involves the cop
To be clear, even if we assume these things are connected, we don't know if it was me or my ability. I haven't had shots since I checked Vere. My theory was that you would redirect my shot to you if I used one that night. That would be a thoughtful negative utility role in this context.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
Yeah, after Pancakes' flip, I don't know how they left you alive. But then again, most of these kills have been head scratchers.
Well, the lack of a kill on you isn't surprising even though the doctor is gone because you're the one where most uncertainty and paranoia has been focused.

I can only assume I was left alive because I was willing to entertain that theory and Neki wasn't. For that reason, I feel pretty comfortable voting anyone but Launch.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,893
I shouldn't be alive. I was the only confirmed town. It was my destiny to die out there in the field, and you cheated me out of it.
The question is why Neki and Launch were left alive yesterday, but now suddenly Neki needs dead. Much like had Vere's death made me look bad, Neki does too. For two days now he has been saying to flip me.

I don't know if the last is you or Cap, and I refuse to believe here in the end it's Launch still. But I love that I'm here again. I am to the final day, and I'm going to sit here unable to move the needle like last game I was in this position. And I'm going to be screaming into the wind that I'm town waiting for town to vote me so scum can hammer it on home like butthead Zeke did against me before doing a celebratory dance. I had a billion days posting like a maniac, having people (rightfully) call me town to see it all go poof.

It is hard not to self vote so we can get to our weekends.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
The question is why Neki and Launch were left alive yesterday, but now suddenly Neki needs dead. Much like had Vere's death made me look bad, Neki does too. For two days now he has been saying to flip me.

I don't know if the last is you or Cap, and I refuse to believe here in the end it's Launch still. But I love that I'm here again. I am to the final day, and I'm going to sit here unable to move the needle like last game I was in this position. And I'm going to be screaming into the wind that I'm town waiting for town to vote me so scum can hammer it on home like butthead Zeke did against me before doing a celebratory dance. I had a billion days posting like a maniac, having people (rightfully) call me town to see it all go poof.

It is hard not to self vote so we can get to our weekends.
If you think I'm scum, then you think a scum thief is a role possibility.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,893
Well, the lack of a kill on you isn't surprising even though the doctor is gone because you're the one where most uncertainty and paranoia has been focused.

I can only assume I was left alive because I was willing to entertain that theory and Neki wasn't. For that reason, I feel pretty comfortable voting anyone but Launch.
Launch has won if they're scum and that's been true since Nat's death. I'm willing to entertain the theory, but for fun and giggles. If Launch wins as scum, I can live with that. Bravo and he earned it. I don't think that is what's happening though.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,893
If you think I'm scum, then you think a scum thief is a role possibility.
What throws me off on your role is a silly one, but it's the overall balance between a scum team of 3 with a roleblocker, goon, and X for last role compared to what town got. This is based on the game design link Launch posted. There are associated power levels for roles, and adding up the town powers against scum doesn't match up, though I dunno how close they're generally supposed to be. I can't get over it.
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,688
To me, today is a formality lol

Captain is town. anex is town. I'm town.

That leaves one person.

Launch, since we're final day, is there anything else you can share on why you believe Captain?
I can take the time to prove it outside of anything meta related. I was working on that but never finished/posted because I found something meta-related that sealed it in.
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,688
By meta-related, I mean something that only makes sense in the context of Captain being vanilla town that is not related to how he has tried to solve the game.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,893
To me, today is a formality lol

Captain is town. anex is town. I'm town.

That leaves one person.


I can take the time to prove it outside of anything meta related. I was working on that but never finished/posted because I found something meta-related that sealed it in.
Then let's get this over with and hammer home this loss so I don't build up to being twiked off wasting 48 hours trying to convince otherwise.

VOTE: VA

I don't trust stairs because they're always up to somethin
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,688
It's going to be the same reasoning as yesterday. Strip away the flavor stuff and what went on with the roles and Captain doesn't have much going for them, which will make me grumpy if that lets them ride into the sunset.
False, and I'd gladly prove it.

But your dismissal of the flavor stuff is pretty interesting. Just like your worry about chain kills yesterday.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,893
🤨

Yes, self-voting is the towniest thing to do on ELo.
You all decided I was dead days ago and now say today is a formality, which again, has been obvious. I have 0 play. I'm not trying to prove anything at this point. I'm just trying to save time and effort on something that is futile. I've had time to get comfy with the loss with the framing that Cap or Anex played a good (or lucky) game so I can't be upset. Or you in bananas world.

Genuinely, why aren't you and Anex voting? You're both here. You're confident I'm scum. And I'm not going to get lulled into a false sense of hope that I could convince you all otherwise to spend time to just get voted anywho. Wrap it up.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,893
So you're willing to vote Launch despite thinking he's town?
No, I am saying that Captain isn't going to convince you that you're scum. And you all have enough votes to vote me out between you and Launch. So the only other thing for Captain to do that could alter anything is convince you on Launch being scum. Or convince Launch on you being scum.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
No, I am saying that Captain isn't going to convince you that you're scum. And you all have enough votes to vote me out between you and Launch. So the only other thing for Captain to do that could alter anything is convince you on Launch being scum. Or convince Launch on you being scum.
Yes, but Captain convincing me Launch is scum isn't enough, you'd have to come along for the ride. Unless we no vote and do this all again tomorrow (please god kill me if so).
 

CaptainNuevo

Mascot Maniac
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,993
I'm getting off a plane now, mentioned it yesterday, but I'll try to catch up more tonight. Brief look shows VA is the obvious target here, scum thief still seems too weird to believe would be here.

I know this is one shot left, I'm not against VA here.
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,688
This is definitely more work than I have to do at this point, but I think I needed to prove it to myself that I could get there without the fudge factor.

With that, I think I need to change my vote to a different one of my McNugget Buddies, and Shamrock Shake it up.

[Please say those count as jokes, else I'm going to keep posting really unfunny ones to cover my bases]

VOTE: Randomless
I sifted through Captain's D1 posts, and I wanted to find things that definitively pointed to town, so I've tossed a lot of things. But I wanted to point out where Captain placed a vote on D1 - Random. His intention was not to hard defend Random at this point in the game.

I'm chiming in here to say I personally believe Randomless' claim, it matches up with a pattern I've noticed with roles.

Hesitant to say specifics here since it makes it a lot easier to fake claims if the pattern is noted.
Possible.

The one thing I'm less sure on is if the pattern holds for power roles or if it's limited to vanilla (or, if it's just coincidental at this point). I'm not asking for anyone to confirm on that one way or another, but as it stands I would prefer we let Randomless live at least another day, I'm very inclined to believe his claim at the moment.

Aight, you do you, I refuse to board that train though. In terms of actions, give me a bit to see what I can do, I just have a feeling that this is a truth here I can't ignore.

I understand that. I just don't have particularly strong in-game logical bases for my argument, which admittedly gives me pause. Sorry, but a lot of my reasoning is... very tied to me. And I'm not really ready or willing to divulge that information at this junction, not sure the math of saving another vanilla townie is worth the price. I'm well aware this makes me seem more sketchy and a topic of conversation here. But as I've said numerous times before, I'm methodical if nothing else.

This is something I want to highlight. Randomless was incredibly easy to just kinda join up and follow into. We have a cop who red-checked someone (which was almost immediately confirmed), then led into this current wave of votes. I know reading the actual posts that there's a lot of things Randomless has said that feel very scum-telling, but I still strongly believe his role claim and flavor explicitly. Because of that, I'm very wary of the people who are going along with it super freely.

It's funny though, right now it feels like I'm the future to Randomless' past. The space-age to his prehistoric age.
I explained that already, I'm strictly against voting for Randomless. I received the clarification I was waiting for from Hedin, and I'm going to have to toe this line incredibly carefully, but I can say this:

I believe Randomless' claim 100%. I have very strong reason to believe that there exists a role named Fred Flintstone in this game, that they're town aligned, and lines up with his claim. I know a few things about how Fred Flintstone spends his days.

I also know that there's a very strong through-line in the town-aligned roles I know of:
Gomez Addams - The patriarch of the Adams Family, which had an animated film made by Hannah-Barbera
Fred Flintstone - Patriarch of the Flintstone family, which has an animated show by Hannah-Barbera.

My role lines up with this trend.

I'm aware this is extremely circumstantial, and going to be incredibly hard to get anyone to actually buy in and believe me at this point, but the situation was one that needed to be toed extremely carefully, and was murky enough I wasn't even sure I was allowed to bring up the trend in roles I noticed to begin with.
Through a series a posts, Captain poses to hard defend here. I am not going to talk about the veracity of what Captain has insinuated. I'll talk about how he goes about pressing this point, though.

There's an edict commonly tossed around here - scum knows who is town and who isn't. It's a great way for people to say "hey, this person knows how someone is going to flip, so they must be scum!" Scum is rarely so obvious about it, but more to the point, scum does not do this at 1) the cost of their conspicuity, or 2) tie their fate to the flip of another player, regardless of Randvere's eventual alignment here.

Additionally, as always, the best thing for scum to do in the case where a townie is going to be voted out is to do nothing. Random was out the door on D2, all but a sure thing, were it not for the seeds sowed by Captain here.

...Well damn, there goes my pattern theory.

Guess the Hannah-Barbera vanilla town theory was too pure for this world. I still strongly believe the Fred Flintstone claim is legit though. I won't vote against it, but I'm also probably at the point where I'm personally going to drop this subject unless someone else brings it up, this is just going to be an endless distraction and honestly I'm fighting an uphill battle against town opinion that's probably not worth it. I should note that my opinion here now only applies to the Fred Flintstone claim here. ONLY that.

Welcome Verelios and Neki! How much have you been paying attention to the mess you just volunteered yourselves to join? What's stood out to you?
This is a good townie-looking post from Captain because it shows he goofed up, but also he still has a strong enough reason to believe Randvere is town and also let's stop letting it take up oxygen.

I just took a shower and while doing so thoughts were raining down upon my head. Trying to think through the voting patterns at EoD to figure out what's on there. The only people still alive in this game who weren't on Bojack were:
Ambulance - voted on Randomless
ZippedPinhead - voted for Conditional-Pancakes
Monkey - No Vote (removed from Randomless before dropping)


The biggest swaps here I can notice: VA and EC swapped votes from Randomless to Bojack near the end (they were the 3rd and 2nd to last votes to move there).

If we believe LaunchPad's claim that Randomless is town (I do), you might initially think that there would be no real incentive for scum to move votes over, since typically later in the game people call those types of moves out as suspicious, joining in on a train (or used to, I have no idea how ya'll play these days).

I'm trying to think if that logic holds here.

One thing that's a wrench here is that Randomless was openly claiming to be a vanilla townie, with at least 1 person claiming they believed that pairing was true. I forget if Bojack was claiming vanilla or not at the time (I believe so, but not 100% sure), but I could see scum trying to push the vote off Randomless, who was claiming vanilla, onto Bojack who was possibly less likely to be vanilla. Why not? If you can get town to vote out a PR instead of a vanilla, and do it without drawing suspicion, why wouldn't you?

I'm not sure I fully believe that's what happened, but I think it's a possibility I'm going to look into more tomorrow.
Note taking summary of the last 2 hours of day yesterday (I'm not making pretty timelines, sorry this'll be less fancy than Monkey's)

PLEASE CORRECT ME IF YOU FEEL I AM MISREPRESENTING THIS


2 hours 13 minutes til Day End:
A few folks remain voteless (Randomless, Dr. Monkey [BEING REPLACED, NO ACTIVE PLAYER], CaptainNuevo, anexanhume, Conditional-Pancakes, LaunchpadMcQ).
Anexahume votes for Bojack
Zipped calls out the rest to ask why no vote.

Launch and Conditional-Pancakes are due to not wanting to be hammer range.
CaptainNuevo for being strictly against Randomless. Moves a vote to Conditional-Pancakes

Conditional-Pancakes and EC have a discussion about this post (asking who else they'd be ok with) by Conditional-Pancakes.
EC would be ok with Bojack, thinks Randomless would not be the best, but seems the most likely.

CaptainNuevo brings up some discussion points around why Randomless is bad and he knows he's town.

Anexanhume mentions being nervous about a quiet day end, but that it could be Randomless as scum feeling defeated, OR scum having no sway.

CaptainNuevo mentions being on board with a Bojack train, drives more discussion around the Hannah-Barbera theorem.
Launch mentions a role name and asks if it fits, Captain confirms it does not, but that the theorem only had data for vanilla.

Discussion moves to Randomless a bit. Anexahume asks if Randomless is still around and to make his case.
Randomless explains absence due to work.

Launch/Captain discuss the HB theorem a bit more and possibility of scum having fake roles that fit the pattern. Captain drops weird flavor things.

Conditional-Pancakes asks Captain to clarify intentions, Captain responds he would not vote for Randomless at any point that day.

Randomless gets asked by both Captain and anexanhume if he'd sub out if he survives a day, he responds he'd intend to.

Anexanhume brings up possibility of this confirming a 4th scum, in the case Randomless is a wolf that wants to die.

1:30 Til DAY END

Randomless and Captain exchange words about why Captain is so ardently against the vote.

Worries mount about a turbo.

Zipped mentions that flavor is a poor reason to base a vote on, since it can arbitrarily matter or not matter.

Conditional-Pancakes would vote for Randomless, but does not yet due to turbo fears.

1 HOUR TIL EOD

VA comments Captain must know something more, but will not move from Randomless to Conditional-Pancakes

Anexanhume asks Randomless if he thinks Bojack left the thread, since he hasn't talked.

EC Corrects VA to say the alternative is Bojack, NOT Conditional-Pancakes. VA later responds to say his logic was Captain is on Pancakes, but he could see most people on Randomless moving to Bojack.

Launchpad asks Captain if he saw something he wasn't supposed to. Captain can neither confirm nor deny.

EC mentions that if Randomless flips as Scum, Captain should be next due to how fishy this is. But could be talked into a Bojack vote.

Conditional-Pancakes signals willingness to vote Bojack with Launch if Launch moves there.

Captain places vote on Bojack.
VA mentions a preference for a smooth swerve, Conditional-Pancakes agrees and asks if VA would be willing to vote Bojack.
Launch votes Bojack.
Conditional-Pancakes votes Bojack.
VA votes Bojack.
EC votes Bojack.
Randomless posts :moth_vibrate: and then votes Bojack in a double.

Day is locked.



Sticking to factual things here, will post some thoughts on it next.
The most obvious thing here is how much Pancakes wanted to ensure they're voting with the majority in a sense. The constant questioning of if enough people would be willing to vote Bojack before being willing to move there. There's never a point where it's clear WHY Pancakes would swap, or a moment where it's clear either were worthwhile.

The second thing is EC's moving the vote from Conditional-Pancakes to Bojack, by saying it's between Bojack and Randomless (despite the vote at the time being the other way, as was previously pointed out).

One thing that's interesting, that I overlooked initially, was Anexanhume's positioning here. There's not really a point where he openly tries to persuade people one way or the other, despite being the first person to be voting on Bojack. I think there was a bit of time where a hammer could have been moved, which it's possible that a very bold scum could have moved to end the day then and there, but Anexanhume didn't. Whether this is the case of that just being too bold and brash to fit the play style here, or proof that Anexanhume isn't scum I'm not sure yet.



Right now, I think those personally are my top 3 candidates, with maybe Wild Ambulance as well due to the lack of presence there. Ambulance has actually been flying way under my radar all game somehow, so would need to look over them more.




For starters, I wasn't even aware he had soft-claimed it until Monkey pointed it out. Upon it being pointed out, I can see how that was a claim, but it's something that being out of the meta/community for so long I failed to pick up on.

Secondly, he's not been a very active player here, which always has me doubtful since there's less to read on.

Third, a soft claimed protective power with no proof isn't going to have me falling over believing you. It's enough to get me to not vote for you early on, and the lack of someone counter-claiming it or showing any indication they're a protective role leads credence to his claim, but I'm also not listing him as top town due to the lack of proof or behavior as strongly pro-town as what other players on my list have shown.
Captain has not really been striving for quantity in this game, so it's interesting when he has longer posts with more analysis behind in. It shows genuine burst of inspiration, rather than being aware of one's own lacking contributions and trying to compensate for that. Other than that, it was a good point to drive home, as VA was massaging town away from the Random vote throughout D2, too, with no incentive to do so other than creating WIFOM over Randvere.

I'd just like to take a moment and say that THIS is what a good post during this day is. Good effort on it, and seems pretty close to where I'd line it up myself (though I'd probably swap Anex and Randomless/Vere personally).
Captain takes the time to give Neki kudos on a good post reviewing the days events - very good town energy behind this one.

...Yeah this is feeling weird. What's your game here?

Sorry, that's again my fault for being vague. You being PoI shouldn't be the primary driver of your decision here. That's my problem with that logic.

Let's chat a bit while you're here. What's your thought on the state of the game as it is? If town gets voted out here, do you think we have another day? Or is this the end?
Captain expresses paranoid feelings over what anex is proposing and talking about here. It does not read like he's intending to shade anex, it reads like he's genuinely concerned that we might be walking into a bad situation. Instead of leaving it at that, too, Captain engages anex to understand what he's thinking.

So, based on all this, I think that Captain is town.
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,688
Just to double check what LP and Nat said about VA:
VA is indecisive but he seems to be overdoing it a tad? Like, D1 is always tough.
I pointed out this one earlier. I said it was an on point read at the time, I felt the same way, and I think that scum have a tendency to be on point with their bus reads.

Talk to me about VA, because he's just a null to me.

I don't think there's anyone I'd take out wholesale though I don't think EC is the answer. I'm a bit higher than you on Rando, but lower on VA and Cap. I feel like you've just had this bead on VA I've never had ever since you two were paired together. I think it's curious that you don't have him more locked in the town range at this point, but I don't know what that means other than it does feel like a dichotomy with how much you want to remove him from consideration.
Not much from the first post. In the second post, Nat may have been setting up Monkey and VA to be tied together if VA flipped down the road.
 

CaptainNuevo

Mascot Maniac
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,993
Yeah I'm not sure I really have anything else to point out, or am in a spot to do so. I think VA is probably where it's always been going to go, I can't make sense of how a scum thief could fit in this, or how launchpad could be scum (if he is, congrats on a risky play).

I'm planning to vote for VA, but willing to wait until other folks chime in to say if that's ok, don't want to rush the last time.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
This is definitely more work than I have to do at this point, but I think I needed to prove it to myself that I could get there without the fudge factor.


I sifted through Captain's D1 posts, and I wanted to find things that definitively pointed to town, so I've tossed a lot of things. But I wanted to point out where Captain placed a vote on D1 - Random. His intention was not to hard defend Random at this point in the game.










Through a series a posts, Captain poses to hard defend here. I am not going to talk about the veracity of what Captain has insinuated. I'll talk about how he goes about pressing this point, though.

There's an edict commonly tossed around here - scum knows who is town and who isn't. It's a great way for people to say "hey, this person knows how someone is going to flip, so they must be scum!" Scum is rarely so obvious about it, but more to the point, scum does not do this at 1) the cost of their conspicuity, or 2) tie their fate to the flip of another player, regardless of Randvere's eventual alignment here.

Additionally, as always, the best thing for scum to do in the case where a townie is going to be voted out is to do nothing. Random was out the door on D2, all but a sure thing, were it not for the seeds sowed by Captain here.


This is a good townie-looking post from Captain because it shows he goofed up, but also he still has a strong enough reason to believe Randvere is town and also let's stop letting it take up oxygen.




Captain has not really been striving for quantity in this game, so it's interesting when he has longer posts with more analysis behind in. It shows genuine burst of inspiration, rather than being aware of one's own lacking contributions and trying to compensate for that. Other than that, it was a good point to drive home, as VA was massaging town away from the Random vote throughout D2, too, with no incentive to do so other than creating WIFOM over Randvere.


Captain takes the time to give Neki kudos on a good post reviewing the days events - very good town energy behind this one.




Captain expresses paranoid feelings over what anex is proposing and talking about here. It does not read like he's intending to shade anex, it reads like he's genuinely concerned that we might be walking into a bad situation. Instead of leaving it at that, too, Captain engages anex to understand what he's thinking.

So, based on all this, I think that Captain is town.
I don't necessarily agree with everything 100%, but I agree on the larger temperature of the posts.

Thanks.

Vote: VA

What did the Launchpad say?

"Ba-dee ba-da that's all folks!"
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
We're officially in the twilight zone. Nothing matters anymore. I could post anything. E.g. Launchpad likes to sniff expired milk. That felt good.