The drawbridges are going up all over the world.
It will be a very different place when they come down again.
It will be a very different place when they come down again.
Because you're comparing the recovered people, which usually entered the hospitals 3 weeks ago (total cases in italy 3 weeks ago, 150 or so), vs the number of people who died up to now, which may have entered the hospital the day before their death (so on 10k cases). Your comparison make no sense.
The mechanic of recovering means that recovering people will always lag behind deceased people on the total of cases. How long? In this case, since it's not only about people not having symptom , but not having a virus at all, it could be up to two weeks or so, which means you're overestimating the death rate by 2 weeks, in an esponential growth which double every 3 day, or 30 times as much.
It takes longer to recover than it takes to succumb to the illness. Framing the issue as recovered vs dead is inaccurate interpretation while the situation is still ongoing.
Take for instance a car accident that involves ten people. One dies and the other nine have broken bones that will take six months to heal. It would be inaccurate to say one month after the accident that it had a 100% death rate because the others have not recovered fully yet.
In the absolute worst case scenario? We bounce back with a slightly lower population, mourn the dead, and hope that we are better prepared for the next crisis. The Spanish flu killed 20-50 million people over two years, yet society in 1925 didn't seem that impacted compared to 1915.
It's not a great situation, but it's also not an "asteroid strike wiping out the dinosaurs"-situation. Additionally, we have a planet that is literally bursting into flames with effects that will kill far greater numbers and upset social order across the planet for decades to come, so I really think you need to take a few steps back on the apathy <-> total panic scale.
It took me all day to catch up on the half a day of news in here. Wow, I have no words...
When the dust starts settling I wonder which of 2 things will happen:
1) A HUGE surge of people going out, travelling, etc. after being locked in/stuff cancelled
2) Majority of people still being cautious, not leaving homes, still stocking up on goods like tp....
Sounds like Belgium.
Tomorrow I need to do grocery shopping. Hopefully the rush has died down and stocks are refilled. Some supermarkets had hour long wait times and no available carts tonight because of people panic-shopping.
I, too, love to use Fox News correspondents as sources.
Yeah I thought Belgium.
The Melbourne F1 race was cancelled completely.
www.abc.net.au
Fans told of Australian Grand Prix cancellation by megaphone at track gates
Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix organisers apologise for the last-minute cancellation of the event due to coronavirus concerns, with ticket holders offered a full refund.
www.abc.net.au
Yeah, the world will have much better policies and understanding of how to deal with a pandemic if one hits again as opposed to being completely clueless.
It takes much longer to recover than to die to put it simple. That's why this logic doesn't work. But the argument that the mortality rate is not the full story is somehow valid and can only be properly calculated after the end of the epidemic practically.
Super-rich jet off to disaster bunkers amid coronavirus outbreak
‘Self isolate’ for some of world’s richest means Covid-19 tests abroad, personal medics and subterranean hide-outs
www.theguardian.com
Why you have to be weird when I posted some good news. I didn't know she was with Fox I just saw it had a ton of likes and the info checked out. Jeez.
I'm in constant anxiety about the environment as well lol
Shit just seems so incredibly fucked, and frankly right now the only thing I care about is my family and them being safe. I do care about the world at large but holy shit I don't want my family to die...
Obviously because recovery takes two weeks+ and deaths can happen a lot faster than that, especially in the elderly, so recoveries will lag behind deaths.
Super-rich jet off to disaster bunkers amid coronavirus outbreak
‘Self isolate’ for some of world’s richest means Covid-19 tests abroad, personal medics and subterranean hide-outs
Rich can get tested quicker but sorry, gotta wait in the line like the redt of us for a vaccine. COVID-19 doesn't take cash.
Odds are not everyone that is sick is being tested, and that numbers are being suppressed to not look as bad.
but remember if we return to normal all it takes is one person not fully healed to start it all over again in an area.
plus don't forget 20% of america are absolute dummies that still think that this is a hoax or just being played up by the media for clicks that are going to go on with their lives like nothing is happening including traveling around the world if they aren't stopped. (like there are dummies in all the countries but I will actively point out the dummies in america that are part of the cult of trump.)
This is totally in line with the way it was in China months ago.
Hmmm, that is a very interesting counter point. Thanks!
But if understand your comment correctly it's that we can't compare deaths to cured because there's leadtime between them, just as there's leadtime between confirmed sick and dead right? So both numbers are equally inaccurate. Or is there more to it?
This is far too early to estimate accurately. Daily running tallies only really help to highlight hotspots. First of all comparing number cured to number of deaths alone is whack. This is ignoring the majority that have tested positive and are undergoing treatment and the great unknown - the number who have it and are entirely asymptomatic. Both of the latter will decrease the overall mortality rate significantly. We will only arrive at a better understanding of these numbers when the pandemic is reaching the end of the flattened curve in every region.
Keep in mind the total of infected people is the number of people who were tested, it's a certainty that way more people have it.
Whereas the death toll is prety straight forward.
Simply comparing both isn't enough to get a death rate.
The vast majority of people who have it are recovering and will not even need medical intervention. Those are not "closed cases" so they are not "recovered" but they will not die.
Nobody is lying to you when they say about 3%.
Only if forced to, school admins are the kind that likes to scoff and downplay the seriousness of the situation.
I mean, none of the numbers are inaccurate? You just have be aware of the nuances of what you're seeing, watching countries that are further along in the development like South Korea (who also have tested the best) etc. to get a better idea of the situation. Actual CFR you can't really tell until after enough cases has gone through the entire course of illness and you have a better idea of total infected.
Saying the reporting on it is bad because they're using current numbers seems strange to me.
You need to stay home rather than travel. A mask won't do anything to help you
If the population is already on guard, then not really. It's not like at the beginning of an outbreak where either nobody knows what's going on or nobody is taking it seriously, so the virus can quietly spread far and wide. China might see pockets of cases again, but it's unlikely to pick up exponential growth again in that country. The conditions there just aren't conducive for it anymore.
I'm just wondering if either of you picked-up on the punchline in there.
Damn, someone told people that my jewel had the goods because Jesus it was a mad house there. I have never seen it that busy. The toilet paper aisle was completely full yesterday, today it was people taking pictures of the toilet paper aisle.
I even saw a dude with a full cart of the Scott single rolls because there were no packs, like do you folks really need that much god damn toilet paper?
I even saw a dude with a full cart of the Scott single rolls because there were no packs, like do you folks really need that much god damn toilet paper?
There are going to be a LOT of thousand dollar handshakes if this really pops off in the US.
I'd like to believe you are right, but I also know that a large portion of the US knew what was coming and they still are doing a horrible job of containing it.
the main reason China is slowing is because they aren't remotely back to living a normal life.
We are never going to get all of america being careful with hygiene and avoiding social contact.
Gigantic if true.
Mormons canceled worldwide?
twitter.com
Mormons canceled worldwide?
St. George News on Twitter
“LDS church cancels services worldwide as COVID-19 pandemic continues #stgeorge #utah #southernutah #cedarcity https://t.co/619IJ6mISa”
twitter.com
I read there is no evidence that either cats or dogs can get it but I don't have an exact answer I'm afraid.
Gigantic if true.
Mormons canceled worldwide?
St. George News on Twitter
“LDS church cancels services worldwide as COVID-19 pandemic continues #stgeorge #utah #southernutah #cedarcity https://t.co/619IJ6mISa”
Cancel culture has gone too far this time!
Sorry, the joke was incredibly easy and I want to spread some brevity in this god-forsaken situation...