PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Yes and no, if the initial plan was to have a 2019 launch they would have needed devkits by now, so they assumed the silicone would have been ready

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They would need the software SDK by now, yes; which they'll have together with the paper target specs.

The fact of an x86 CPU and AMD -- likely GCN -- GPU means emulating target specs using off the shelf hardware will get them close.

They only need final silicon 6 - 8 months before launch. The biggest issue by far this gen transition will be the software SDK environment which will need to be integrated into developer's production pipelines, engine's etc..

Once the engineering for the hardware is done (and it will be by now) AMD will have provided software tools to Sony/MS to develop their SDKs and get them out to third party devs.

The biggest caveat, however, is that we don't know when the decision to delay to 2020 was made. That we're just hearing about it now doesn't mean that it happened recently. That's a shakey assuption without any real basis.

Going by a listing in LinkedIn, it looks like The Coalition may be working on something else apart from Gears of War 5.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-penty-9512a4/

Obsidian and InXile are also working on separate projects. These are the only Microsoft studios that have anything announced for the current generation. Everyone else is working on something possibly for the next generation, that is unless we see something from Ninja Theory coming in this generation.

Everyone else is possibly working on something for the next generation; the only other title that has been announced is Halo Infinite and if it is a final third of the year launch it will be a cross generation title.

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I don't expect MS to be ready to launch a new console in 2019 because they just launched the XB1X. I don't think they feel the need to try to jump the gun either.

Also, if they're intent on having the most powerful hardware like many assume, likelihood of them being able to achieve that while launching before PS5 is extremely low.

MS is going to let Sony go first for sure.

 

[MrKlaw]

2019 delayed to 2020 is,ok as long as they continue to evolve the system and ensure it is competitive based on the 2020 landscape, and not simply a 2019 spec released a year later.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

They would need the software SDK by now, yes; which they'll have together with the paper target specs.

The fact of an x86 CPU and AMD -- likely GCN -- GPU means emulating target specs using off the shelf hardware will get them close.

They only need final silicon 6 - 8 months before launch. The biggest issue by far this gen transition will be the software SDK environment which will need to be integrated into developer's production pipelines, engine's etc..

Once the engineering for the hardware is done (and it will be by now) AMD will have provided software tools to Sony/MS to develop their SDKs and get them out to third party devs.

The biggest caveat, however, is that we don't know when the decision to delay to 2020 was made. That we're just hearing about it now doesn't mean that it happened recently. That's a shakey assuption without any real basis.

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I agree with you, but this is also why I'm saying that if any modifications have been made its to clocks and amount of RAM, because those would be things that can be changed late in the development of a game and wouldn't mess anything up. I'm pretty sure some devs for launch ps4 games worked under the assumption of 4gigs of ram, clearly they weren't impacted by a " late" game doubling of ram by Sony

 

[goonergaz]

The biggest caveat, however, is that we don't know when the decision to delay to 2020 was made. That we're just hearing about it now doesn't mean that it happened recently. That's a shakey assuption without any real basis.

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There was definitely feelings of hinted 2019 until the later part of the year when rumours of delays to early 2020 began filtering through. I suspect it would have been some time before then (obviously), but I do think it only happened 6-9 months ago...total guess, but team2019 had reasons to believe IIRC

 

[goonergaz]

I agree with you, but this is also why I'm saying that if any modifications have been made its to clocks and amount of RAM, because those would be things that can be changed late in the development of a game and wouldn't mess anything up. I'm pretty sure some devs for launch ps4 games worked under the assumption of 4gigs of ram, clearly they weren't impacted by a " late" game doubling of ram by Sony

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IIRC wasn't Killzone a 4gb game?

 

[HotHamWater]

Have we heard any whispers about another PS4 revision recently? Specifically a cheaper slim?

 

[anexanhume]

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2019002835

In example embodiments, the FPGA can be configured to act as, say, an earlier or different processing element. For example, in a games or other data processing machine of a current generation, such an FPGA can be used to provide the functionality of a previous generation machine or even a different type of machine so as to allow compatibility with legacy or different software.

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[BitsandBytes]

IIRC wasn't Killzone a 4gb game?

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Nope. Used 4.7GB of the available 5GB.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

IIRC wasn't Killzone a 4gb game?

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That exactly what I was thinking of, and that was a launch day showcase game from a first party studio. So I imagine that right now even the specs Sony first party has are in a state of flux. You can boost clocks if you have the cooling and you can most definitely boost the RAM without messing up development. Hell, Ubisoft, UBISOFT knew so little about the ps4 and x1 that they developed with a higher cpu in mind and it made launch (pre patches) assasins Creed unity games disasters on console. Could the physical design of the box be changed 12-18 months out? Honest question because I have no clue but am curious. Because that impacts things on the tech side too

 

[Vanta Aurelius]

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2019002835

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Are you implying that a next-gen console could contain a FPGA? Aren't FPGAs notoriously expensive? How do economics of scale apply to FPGAs?

 

[GUNDAM STARDUST]

Look folks, we're probably going to get your basic holidays 2020 launch like most expected. Systems will be close in spec with what I assume to be like this:

XBOX Scarlet Level 1 ($500) > PS5 ($400) > XBOX Scarlet Level 2 ($300)

Then we can start bitching about shadow quality in 3rd party games and how the first party of company X is bringing the heat while the first party of company Y has the hits coming. Just you wait!

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

What about all,the games with unlocked framerates that can managed 40-45 regularly but can't usually hit 60? Perfect candidates for VRR - but realistically looking at next gen consoles for any proper uptake

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Yes I said this....?
That what's amd freesync is.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

Are you implying that a next-gen console could contain a FPGA? Aren't FPGAs notoriously expensive? How do economics of scale apply to FPGAs?

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What's an FGPA? And should we be excited? I doubt it's thrown in the patent fo shits and giggles

 

[Deleted member 36493]

Yeah Holiday 2020 just makes too much sense. 2020 Olympics for marketing.

 

[goonergaz]

Nope. Used 4.7GB of the available 5GB.

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Probably got that from this;

https://gamingbolt.com/killzone-shadow-fall-using-3-gb-ram-how-does-this-affect-future-ps4-games

 

[bsigg]

Yeah Holiday 2020 just makes too much sense. 2020 Olympics for marketing.

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The 2020 Olympics are being broadcast in 8k. Native 8k support for the PS5 /NextXbox confirmed!

(They will likely support 8K just as part of the HDMI 2.1 standard, not that there's any content at this point)

 

[Deleted member 40133]

Sony doesn't seem to be an official sponsor for the 2020 Olympics

https://tokyo2020.org/en/organising-committee/marketing/sponsors/

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I agree with you, but this is also why I'm saying that if any modifications have been made its to clocks and amount of RAM, because those would be things that can be changed late in the development of a game and wouldn't mess anything up. I'm pretty sure some devs for launch ps4 games worked under the assumption of 4gigs of ram, clearly they weren't impacted by a " late" game doubling of ram by Sony

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But your assumption about RAM and clocks being the only thing possible to change not to disrupt games development is inherently predicated on an assumption that the launch delay happened late in the game.

If it happened 12 months ago, more significant changes to the specs/hw would be possible with negligible impact on software.

There was definitely feelings of hinted 2019 until the later part of the year when rumours of delays to early 2020 began filtering through. I suspect it would have been some time before then (obviously), but I do think it only happened 6-9 months ago...total guess, but team2019 had reasons to believe IIRC

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Actually the suggestion of a delay from an initial 2019 launch plan was hinted at by semiaccurate in April 2018. That means it occured prior to then, leading me to believe its closer to 12 months ago, which makes it a fair early change in the console dev process.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2019002835

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Ooooh, don't get Mr Rigby started on FPGAs.... we'll never hear the end of it, lol.

What's an FGPA? And should we be excited? I doubt it's thrown in the patent fo shits and giggles

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Fully Programmable Gate Array. In short, hardware whose circuitry can be programmed to emulate almost any processor circuitry.

There are two bit reasons I can't see an FPGA in a console and the biggest is cost, the second is security.

 

[GUNDAM STARDUST]

Sony doesn't seem to be an official sponsor for the 2020 Olympics

https://tokyo2020.org/en/organising-committee/marketing/sponsors/

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Advertisers will be much broader than the official supporters. Kikkoman bringing that Olympic heat though.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Sony doesn't seem to be an official sponsor for the 2020 Olympics

https://tokyo2020.org/en/organising-committee/marketing/sponsors/

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Maybe they're saving money for their PS5 launch?

:-P

 

[Kyoufu]

Crouching isn't an official Olympic sport.

 

[anexanhume]

Are you implying that a next-gen console could contain a FPGA? Aren't FPGAs notoriously expensive? How do economics of scale apply to FPGAs?

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Large FPGAs are expensive. But if it's not cutting edge, you're talking a few dollars. You could also de-populate for some SKUs.

What's an FGPA? And should we be excited? I doubt it's thrown in the patent fo shits and giggles

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Given PS2 and back are emulated just fine, it's either needed for PS4 or PS3 BC.

 

[Deleted member 20297]

But your assumption about RAM and clocks being the only thing possible to change not to disrupt games development is inherently predicated on an assumption that the launch delay happened late in the game.

If it happened 12 months ago, more significant changes to the specs/hw would be possible with negligible impact on software.



Actually the suggestion of a delay from an initial 2019 launch plan was hinted at by semiaccurate in April 2018. That means it occured prior to then, leading me to believe its closer to 12 months ago, which makes it a fair early change in the console dev process.



Ooooh, don't get Mr Rigby started on FPGAs.... we'll never hear the end of it, lol.



Fully Programmable Gate Array. In short, hardware whose circuitry can be programmed to emulate almost any processor circuitry.

There are two bit reasons I can't see an FPGA in a console and the biggest is cost, the second is security.

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I don't see a big problem regarding security with an FPGA?
The idea of having them is really interesting, to be honest, but I fail to see much applications for them.

 

[BitsandBytes]

Crouching isn't an official Olympic sport.

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Jumping is! ;)

 

[Kyoufu]

Jumping is! ;)

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I think we just cracked Kodera's code. That's what he meant this whole time!

 

[Deleted member 5725]

Crouching isn't an official Olympic sport.

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Jumping is! ;)

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Lol

 

[Deleted member 36493]

I think we just cracked Kodera's code. That's what he meant this whole time!

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Oh shit

 

[modiz]

What's an FGPA? And should we be excited? I doubt it's thrown in the patent fo shits and giggles

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From what i am reading on wikipedia, it is a programmable logic gate, that can be used and these days is used for AI calculations. So maybe unlike what people here think that its related solely to emulation, maybe this FPGA will also be used for the GPU AI chip.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I don't see a big problem regarding security with an FPGA?
The idea of having them is really interesting, to be honest, but I fail to see much applications for them.

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I may be wrong but programmable hardware seems like a great vector for irrivocably jailbreaking a console.

 

[GUNDAM STARDUST]

Crouching isn't an official Olympic sport.

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Crouching is uncomfortable as fuck TBH. I've never crouched in my life and been like "This is the shit. I need to do this more."

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

From what i am reading on wikipedia, it is a programmable logic gate, that can be used and these days is used for AI calculations. So maybe unlike what people here think that its related solely to emulation, maybe this FPGA will also be used for the GPU AI chip.

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FGPAs are used in microprocessor design to test an early chip design and iron out all the kinks before moving forward to manufacturing.

They have a variety of uses which primarily revolve around their major benefit, i.e. being user programmable.

Their inclusion in a console to emulate a single legacy processor design wouldn't align with that.

Inclusion to be able to simulate multiple, however, (e.g. PS1, PS2 and PS3) would be interesting.

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In general, I see less benefit to including an FPGA than simply including the actual core circuitry you're using the FPGA to simulate directly in circuitry.

It seems like a weirdly round-a-bout way of doing it. It's less silicon and power efficient. You're essentially using more power and transistors to do less.

Why not engineer the legacy console chip in question (e.g. a Cell) on a 7nm chiplet and include it in the same package as the chiplet based main APU?

 

[Deleted member 20297]

I may be wrong but programmable hardware seems like a great vector for irrivocably jailbreaking a console.

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It is definitely another vector but they can be protected like other chips with keys and crypto. It "just" has to be done right ;-)

 

[anexanhume]

FGPAs are used in microprocessor design to test an early chip design and iron out all the kinks before moving forward to manufacturing.

They have a variety of uses which primarily revolve around their major benefit, i.e. being user programmable.

Their inclusion in a console to emulate a single legacy processor design wouldn't align with that.

Inclusion to be able to simulate multiple, however, (e.g. PS1, PS2 and PS3) would be interesting.

------

In general, I see less benefit to including an FPGA than simply including the actual core circuitry you're using the FPGA to simulate directly in circuitry.

It seems like a weirdly round-a-bout way of doing it. It's less silicon and power efficient. You're essentially using more power and transistors to do less.

Why not engineer the legacy console chip in question (e.g. a Cell) on a 7nm chiplet and include it in the same package as the chiplet based main APU?

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Because you want to be able to update it.

Edit: to be more specific, it could be a time to market thing. Going FPGA gives them more time, on top of updates. An example would be the 4K GSYNC monitors, which use FPGAs instead of ASICs inside them.

 

[Vanta Aurelius]

Because you want to be able to update it.

Edit: to be more specific, it could be a time to market thing. Going FPGA gives them more time, on top of updates. An example would be the 4K GSYNC monitors, which use FPGAs instead of ASICs inside them.

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I never thought about the fact that using an FPGA would allow for updates to the hardware emulation. It guess it could also allow for improved features? I'm curious as to how large, and complex, of an FPGA Sony would need to emulate the PS3's Cell Processor? Would the FPGA need to be on the same package as the APU?

 

[FSavage]

Actually the suggestion of a delay from an initial 2019 launch plan was hinted at by semiaccurate in April 2018. That means it occured prior to then, leading me to believe its closer to 12 months ago, which makes it a fair early change in the console dev process.

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I actually think this 'delay' happen early to mid 2017, after Kodera took over. This is just my theory but I think Kodera looked at the then current design of the PS5 and ordered some design changes and/or additions to the design. I think Sony saw where the industry is going (more service oriented) and decided to promote Kodera (precious Network and Services boss) to be President, and in turn PS5 design philosophy changed around that time as well.

I think one of the big changes was PS3 emulation (native PS4 BC was in the PS5 plans from the get go imo). Idk if you guys remember this:

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/02/28/sony_toshiba_ps3_chip_plant_sale/

Sony had to buy an entire factory just to continue making Cell and rsx chips. This was for the PS3 and the chips continued to be made for PS Now servers. They even had to redesign the Cell for PS Now server racks:

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2014-sony-creates-custom-ps3-for-playstation-now

Cell continues to be a (costly) thorn in Sony's side. The chips make it difficult for PS Now to easily and quickly expand. If Sony is able to design PS5 hardware to properly run all PS3 games, they will finally be able to relieve themselves of the Cell. Right now, PS Now needs separate server hardware to run PS1-PS4 games, adding costs and possibly halving capacity and hardware bandwidth for PS3/PS4 games. Imagine if they are able to design a PS5 hardware that can emulate PS1-PS3 games and natively play PS4 (+PS5 obviously) games. Hugely reducing costs, and the ability to quickly expand PS Now service as long as TSMC is able to pump out the hardware needed.

Going into the FGPA talk, I think the positives of including it in the hardware heavily outweighs the negatives for Sony in this case. This is basically what MS is doing with their hardware design for the nextbox, but instead of adding specific hardware just for games like Sony is, they're thinking about interprise apps.

Ps. If you look back I'm at my comments way earlier in this thread, I've been suggesting that Sony might be doing this way before the MS 'leaks' came out.

 

[Riesenfass]

Don't know about MS, but I am guessing late 2019 for Sony. Here are my reasons:

1. Mid cycle refreshes. PS4 launched in 2013, PS4 pro in 2016 with 3 years apart. 3 years past 2016 is 2019.
2. No new 1st party exclusives announced since 2016.
3. Sony is not attending E3 and didn't do PSX in 2018.

Numbers 2 and 3 to me are clear indications that they are working full bore on next gen - this year's PS4 exclusives are likely the last for the system. Why go to E3 if you are announcing your next system before then as well as launch lineup - makes no sense to go with nothing to show.

Guess we'll see but I think all signs point to 2019.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

Don't know about MS, but I am guessing late 2019 for Sony. Here are my reasons:

1. Mid cycle refreshes. PS4 launched in 2013, PS4 pro in 2016 with 3 years apart. 3 years past 2016 is 2019.
2. No new 1st party exclusives announced since 2016.
3. Sony is not attending E3 and didn't do PSX in 2018.

Numbers 2 and 3 to me are clear indications that they are working full bore on next gen - this year's PS4 exclusives are likely the last for the system. Why go to E3 if you are announcing your next system before then as well as launch lineup - makes no sense to go with nothing to show.

Guess we'll see but I think all signs point to 2019.

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2. Ghost of Tsushima

 

[anexanhume]

I never thought about the fact that using an FPGA would allow for updates to the hardware emulation. It guess it could also allow for improved features? I'm curious as to how large, and complex, of an FPGA Sony would need to emulate the PS3's Cell Processor? Would the FPGA need to be on the same package as the APU?

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Emulating an entire CPU is not cost-effective. They'd be much better off shrinking Cell to a modern process. The FPGA likely takes on the function of some ancillary chip/function/coded that's difficult or expensive to emulate in software.

For example, MS baked in some BC hardware into the Xbox One APU.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Don't know about MS, but I am guessing late 2019 for Sony. Here are my reasons:

1. Mid cycle refreshes. PS4 launched in 2013, PS4 pro in 2016 with 3 years apart. 3 years past 2016 is 2019.
2. No new 1st party exclusives announced since 2016.
3. Sony is not attending E3 and didn't do PSX in 2018.

Numbers 2 and 3 to me are clear indications that they are working full bore on next gen - this year's PS4 exclusives are likely the last for the system. Why go to E3 if you are announcing your next system before then as well as launch lineup - makes no sense to go with nothing to show.

Guess we'll see but I think all signs point to 2019.

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No E3 says 2020 to me. Why would you skip one of the biggest game coverage places in a year where you will be announcing and releasing a new system and next gen games?

That is because they aren't making any PS5 related announcements this year. Or, if they do, it will be at the end of 2019 with the release being in 2020.

 

[goonergaz]

No E3 says 2020 to me. Why would you skip one of the biggest game coverage places in a year where you will be announcing and releasing a new system and next gen games?

That is because they aren't making any PS5 related announcements this year. Or, if they do, it will be at the end of 2019 with the release being in 2020.

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I don't understand this logic. MS announced X at E3 over a year ahead of its release.

I think Sony are skipping E3 so they can be masters of their own timetable. I think they learnt lessons from 2013 and are using that to shape 2019.

 

[dobahking91]

Am I the only one who think MS is likely going to announce Scarlett next E3 especially if they are confident with it's spec

I imagine somthing similar to Scorpio at E3 2016. Spencer on stage "Here a bold new vision of Halo which will be taking advantage of our next console, coming Holiday 2020" *drop mic* crowd goes wild :D

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Emulating an entire CPU is not cost-effective. They'd be much better off shrinking Cell to a modern process. The FPGA likely takes on the function of some ancillary chip/function/coded that's difficult or expensive to emulate in software.

For example, MS baked in some BC hardware into the Xbox One APU.

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I think the main challenge for PS4 BC isn't the Cell PPE nor the Nvidia GPU but the Cell SPEs due to their nature and how they were used in games (to support the GPU in workloads). The only way you may able to emulate that is by vSPE that actually run on GPU SIMDs that are the closest thing to those SPEs from a purpose standpoint. Because you had a Nvidia GPU you need a vGPU software layer anyway.

 

[WhtR88t]

I'm curious if there will be Project xCloud apps for Xbox One S and X that allow streaming of "next gen" Scarlet games or if you'll have to buy a new box to be able to use the streaming service?

Has it been confirmed that whatever is available via xCloud are the same games that'll be on the more powerful/expensive "in your home" box?

 

[BradGrenz]

I never thought about the fact that using an FPGA would allow for updates to the hardware emulation. It guess it could also allow for improved features? I'm curious as to how large, and complex, of an FPGA Sony would need to emulate the PS3's Cell Processor?

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Yeah, typically FPGAs found in consumer devices are used to replicate the function of much, much smaller chips than the Cell. AFAIK they also typically clock well below the 3.2Ghz of the Cell in PS3. From a cost perspective, I'm not even sure FPGAs are a good solution for PS2 level support.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

Am I the only one who think MS is likely going to announce Scarlett next E3 especially if they are confident with it's spec

I imagine somthing similar to Scorpio at E3 2016. Spencer on stage "Here a bold new vision of Halo which will be taking advantage of our next console, coming Holiday 2020" *drop mic* crowd goes wild :D

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I expect this too. And E3 2019 will end on a short demo of Infinite running on it.

 

[Papacheeks]

I expect this too. And E3 2019 will end on a short demo of Infinite running on it.

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I would rather they show infinite running on XBox one X and on PC, and saying what your seeing from the PC is what it will look like on our next gen console. Feel like XBox one X is too young to throw it out in favor of Scarlet. I mean if they are going to release in 2020, I feel being more subtle about it would be the best approach. Getting people on PC PSyched about xbox changes for the software is a better approach with infinite being cross play and all that.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

a) I'm curious if there will be Project xCloud apps for Xbox One S and X that allow streaming of "next gen" Scarlet games or if you'll have to buy a new box to be able to use the streaming service?

b) Has it been confirmed that whatever is available via xCloud are the same games that'll be on the more powerful/expensive "in your home" box?

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a) The plan is that streaming will be available on all Xbox One SKUs too if I am not mistaken.
b) Nothing is known on how the service will work specifically.

 

[anexanhume]

Yeah, typically FPGAs found in consumer devices are used to replicate the function of much, much smaller chips than the Cell. AFAIK they also typically clock well below the 3.2Ghz of the Cell in PS3. From a cost perspective, I'm not even sure FPGAs are a good solution for PS2 level support.

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This is correct. Most FPGAs are in the hundreds of MHz.

 

[msia2k75]

we got another https://www.resetera.com/threads/so...e-were-skipping-3.88555/page-23#post-16492091

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Reading that, this sounds like what the reddit poster said one month earlier.

 

[Deleted member 36493]

I would rather they show infinite running on XBox one X and on PC, and saying what your seeing from the PC is what it will look like on our next gen console. Feel like XBox one X is too young to throw it out in favor of Scarlet. I mean if they are going to release in 2020, I feel being more subtle about it would be the best approach. Getting people on PC PSyched about xbox changes for the software is a better approach with infinite being cross play and all that.

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Can't agree with that. If they have a new console(s) coming next year then get me hyped for it. Show me what it can do.