PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
- Start date
WOW, incredible posts anexanhume !! I'm scrolling and scrolling but it doesn't end, holy shit. That must have taken so much time! Thanks for all the amazing work!! Now I know what I'm going to read this afternoon lol
Fanatastic work anexanhume.
Very comprehensive write-up.
Did you want to include the semiaccurate rumours in your rumour write-up? I didn't see a mention (although I may have missed it).
Are you also able to publish this as a blog post elsewhere so we can more easily access/link to it?
Very comprehensive write-up.
Did you want to include the semiaccurate rumours in your rumour write-up? I didn't see a mention (although I may have missed it).
Are you also able to publish this as a blog post elsewhere so we can more easily access/link to it?
anexanehume nice work!
A couple of small notes I would offer:
On Navi's microarchitecture - if we're citing Usman Pirzada's reporting at WCCFTech, his more recent reporting from June 2018 onward revised the record a bit, and suggests based on his sources that Navi is a brand new microarchitecture, the one that 'Next Gen' in that original roadmap will also be based on, rather than the same as prior GCN (see: https://wccftech.com/exclusive-amd-navi-gpu-roadmap-cost-zen/). However, in discussing whether Navi is 'GCN' or not, I suppose there might be a semantics issue - Navi could indeed be that new architecture while still being compliant with the GCN ISA, I guess.
On "AMD has stated they will certainly consider ray-tracing, but only when it can be implemented in their entire lineup of cards" - this is a bit subtle - and possibly not relevant for the next-gen consoles anyway - but I think Wang was referring to game support for ray tracing not being ubiquitous until they (vendors) could offer it across their range of cards. I don't think he was necessarily saying AMD wouldn't support it until it could be done in all their cards, even though a lot of headlines reported it that way.
A couple of small notes I would offer:
On Navi's microarchitecture - if we're citing Usman Pirzada's reporting at WCCFTech, his more recent reporting from June 2018 onward revised the record a bit, and suggests based on his sources that Navi is a brand new microarchitecture, the one that 'Next Gen' in that original roadmap will also be based on, rather than the same as prior GCN (see: https://wccftech.com/exclusive-amd-navi-gpu-roadmap-cost-zen/). However, in discussing whether Navi is 'GCN' or not, I suppose there might be a semantics issue - Navi could indeed be that new architecture while still being compliant with the GCN ISA, I guess.
On "AMD has stated they will certainly consider ray-tracing, but only when it can be implemented in their entire lineup of cards" - this is a bit subtle - and possibly not relevant for the next-gen consoles anyway - but I think Wang was referring to game support for ray tracing not being ubiquitous until they (vendors) could offer it across their range of cards. I don't think he was necessarily saying AMD wouldn't support it until it could be done in all their cards, even though a lot of headlines reported it that way.
anexanhume is it ok to post this info on other forums? Seems a shame to restrict such a great amount of hard work to one place.
Wow...@anexanhume man that is amazing!
Thank you for your incredible contribution to the thread..now excuse me,I have some reading to do (:
Thank you for your incredible contribution to the thread..now excuse me,I have some reading to do (:
Could the US-China trade-iplomatic war affect Sony or Microsoft next-gen consoles manufacturing ? 🤔
I just did. It was increadibly thorough.
Our office IT systems are down today, so we're all just sat here at work twiddlig our thumbs anyway.
anexanhume's posts just came at the most opportune time.
He's a legend.
Feel free to share as you see fit, with or without attribution.
Thanks. I'll look into updating later today.
Last edited:
Thanks for that - and thanks again for such a great post!
Yes if only to make it easier to find.
Contrary to my heavy speculation, it's a very well balanced, informative and professional quality post. A+ How many hours?
Only thing that could be added is a tie-in to consumer electronics roadmaps and dates for HDMI 2.1 platforms, VR, ATSC 3.0, IPTV (Playstation vue) as well as cites from/for efficientgaming.eu. Hardware and software evolution are part of the long term roadmaps for Consoles and displays. This can easily be seen in the 2012 Sony CTO article on what is needed for Playstation; 5 year wait, 300FPS and 8k (HDMI 2.1 ) as well as HBM memory or equivilent (GDDR6).
Nice work anexahume and all of the co-contributors too. Just finished reading it and its well though out.
You guys make this thread worth visiting every day. : )
Cheers OP for threadmarking anexanhume's superb posts.
That definitely makes it easier to refer back to as this thread continues to grow.
That definitely makes it easier to refer back to as this thread continues to grow.
kinda curious if there needs to be a new post because OT have a 400-page limit (though this isnt an OT)
Is it a hard forum limit or a rule laid down by admins?
Holy moly! Thanks for that crazy post anexanhume !
I think that should be what we base thread number 2 on. Just dump all that into a crazy OP and build discussion from there. There's too much effort and quality information to leave it buried 300+ pages into this thread.
I think that should be what we base thread number 2 on. Just dump all that into a crazy OP and build discussion from there. There's too much effort and quality information to leave it buried 300+ pages into this thread.
It's more of a soft rule, really. NBA OT has reached 650 pages with no new thread.
That said, anexanhume 's post is so thorough, complete, well written and overall glorious that it needs to be the OP of a new thread. Make it "PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - 2019 Edition".
That said, anexanhume 's post is so thorough, complete, well written and overall glorious that it needs to be the OP of a new thread. Make it "PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - 2019 Edition".
Not really. It would only be if they screw up with the launch. The hardcore will buy it day 1 regardless and Sony may be able to keep the price relatively high over the years assuming the game quality is there. We also have the Xbox X showing it is feasible too. It has performed rather well.
Amazing post anexanhume. Must have taken ages to compile and compose into a post here.
Will grab some food and have a thorough read this afternoon.
Will grab some food and have a thorough read this afternoon.
I'm sure Microsoft is seeing game streaming as new business and I'm sure that they are more than ready to eat lossss if there's needing because of competition..all to to try to win the initial game . The competion against Google and maybe Amazon is loooooot (not even comparable)more important for Ms than what it is vs Sony.
Agreed. I vote for a new thread.
The thing is, for xCloud there is no competition because across all devices on the Xbox software platform, xCloud is the only streaming option available.
Google can't compete because they're neither a games publisher, own a gaming platform nor do they produce any gaming content. They haven't even launched a gaming streaming service and all indications point to them having no desire to, rather them being a middleware or backend service infrastructure provider, similar to how Amazon Web Services provides datacentre services to PSN. Google will provide their streaming tech to game publishers like Ubi and EA to integrate into their own distribution platforms, e.g. Origins, UPlay.
Amazon doesn't even have a presence in game streaming so far.
xCloud is very unlikely to be free.
Not really but they did shut down the previous thread with little reasoning
I agree with this
They know that they will have to eat a lot of the cost early on and that it will take time to make what they have invested in streaming tech. They may also subsidize it to try and get as many people on board as possible and see where that boat takes them.
Google, Amazon are all huge players. If it their desire to get into gaming, then it is something that they can do. They could very easily place $2 billion dollars and go around buying independent studios and in no time you have 10 or more of those.
Google for one has Android and there is a lot of ways that they could target people to their platform if they chose to go the gaming route. After all, they already make one of the best phones on the market and persist with making it better despite it not selling that well.
there was a time when Ms was thinking to use Xbox as trojan horse for the living room ...but both Google and Amazon are doing better than them with Google home and echo..and Google have Android ....Ms will want to fight them in whatever way they can...
Amazing post anexanhume Thank you so much for taking the time to make it. Just sat and read it all with a coffee.
Also voting for it to be the OP in a new 2019 discussion thread if possible.
Also voting for it to be the OP in a new 2019 discussion thread if possible.
In the long run, MS sees xCloud as something which will generate revenue. A company like MS is only going to make investments like this if they expect to see long term growth based on their internal estimates and trending.
I think it's both interesting and difficult to speculate on how MS monetizes xCloud because of how much data we lack. When GamePass was announced, then again last year when MS announced that their first party titles would come to the service day and date, there was a lot of paper math going on in the forum, and people couldn't grasp how it would be a profitable move. We don't know the full economics of Gamepass, and probably won't know these details for xCloud either.
I think xCloud is not just meant to get people onto Gamepass, but get them overall in to Xbox, whether they direct purchase games, sub to Gamepass, or whatever.
My current expectation is that access to xCloud will somehow be tied into XBL Gold. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if MS has a found way to monetize the service in a way that allows them to provide cloud gaming for "free." Other than PS Now, none of the big companies investing in cloud gaming have announced pricing structure, I think they're all trying to figure out how to provide the lowest barrier to entry. In that regard I think MS is best positioned to provide a service with a low barrier to entry and a compelling service due to their ability to leverage Azure and Xbox.
Excellent post! I really appreciate not only the depth of topics, but the detail in the references you provided!
I'd like to see a new thread and a new poll.
I never post on here, but that one on page 395 by anexanhume, needs special mention. You should have approached a games outlet with that and get paid for the research you have done !
Mega post.
Mega post.
My wording was wrong not in intent though, you have it right. There is the ability to come into the system at a low monthly price, but within that ecosystem there is the ability to go on and purchase games if that is what the consumer so wishes.
I think that what will appeal most to people is the fact that you can for the low price of $10 a month have 200 plus games that you can download and play. That is an incredible value proposition that is backed by the fact that all their first party games will be coming to Game Pass on day one too.
I do not know what it is they will do with Gold. I cannot see them getting rid of it because that is one heck of a buffer to have. There are going to be issues with messaging on how you pay for a cloud based service but have to pay to play online and the sort, and that is something that somewhat sways me to thinking that they maybe bump the price of game pass up by a bit and get rid Gold if you are on the subscription. They could have thought of something different though.
With the way tech is going, you do not have to have a console to reach a market of gamers. And it is not just what gaming on a wide scale does in terms of generating revenue, it is that it has the potential to push people into an ecosystem for far greater monetization.
Google is the biggest search engine, and they have the biggest mobile ecosystem to work with. They have the profits and could easily get into gaming without need for hardware. They are at a position where they could take the hit over five or six years as they wait for the business to mature.
anexanhume, that's some damn fine work. Thanks for putting all that effort in.
Something I was curious about that you mentioned in there - just what are the cost savings like for using less overall RAM chips, vs using smaller chips? With the way I've heard it discussed, it got me wondering about when you would even want to use anything other than the biggest chips in the smallest numbers.
Something I was curious about that you mentioned in there - just what are the cost savings like for using less overall RAM chips, vs using smaller chips? With the way I've heard it discussed, it got me wondering about when you would even want to use anything other than the biggest chips in the smallest numbers.
OP
OP
I just finished reading your summary anexanhume It took me half an hour or so, but that was really good. I think it's of help because it's easy to understand, even omitting the more technical information, someone is able to get the picture and comprehend what each part is talking about. Cheers for that. For the next thread, if we still don't have official info, this should be part of the OP, IMO. Thank you for taking your time to type it all out and adding the references to each information.
Oh dang, true, we're hitting 400 pages LOL C'mon Sony, that Playstation Meeting announcement so we're able to go to a new thread the proper way ;) I guess we can create a new one after AMD's CES keynote, if there's any new relevant info whatsoever.
Oh dang, true, we're hitting 400 pages LOL C'mon Sony, that Playstation Meeting announcement so we're able to go to a new thread the proper way ;) I guess we can create a new one after AMD's CES keynote, if there's any new relevant info whatsoever.
The number of chips you use determines your bus width. 32 bits per chip. So, if you use 8 chips, that's a 256 bit bus. You can also do a clamshell design, where two chips sit on opposite sides of the board and physically share the lines. You only do this when you can't get enough density to reach your desired amount in a single chip. I attempted to illustrate these possibilities with the RAM table.
I doubt we'll see clamshell in a next gen console, either because they only go with 16-24GB, or because 32Gb chips become available by then.
As far as cost, overall capacity in the die certainly matters, but overall die quantity matters more.
We'll definitely have new info at CES. I figured you would have first right of refusal for a new thread. I'll repost over there in that case.
Sorry, I was thinking more about lower-end cases, not necessarily big consoles. Like, if you're making some smaller, low-end device like a basic phone or a cheap and simple portable console with 2GB of some kind of RAM, is there any reason why you would ever want to use, say, two 1GB chips rather than one 2GB chip? If I'm reading you right then the former could get you a bigger bus, but wouldn't that be pricier? And would the higher bandwidth even matter in those smaller amounts?
My speculation is that MS refocuses Gold and Gamepass based on what they're delivering and keep these services seperate. Gamepass will stay a game subscription service and will be independent of the device(s) used to access games on that service.
Gold originally provided multiplayer console gaming, I think Games with Gold will go away (with this being rolled into Gamepass) and I think xCloud access will be rolled in. I think they'll want to take steps to standardize Gold across all platforms, which may involve changes to access of free-to-play games, or even removing the requirement to have gold to play mp games - this would be a big risk, but if they think they can go from the ~50 million subs on console now, to hundreds of millions of subs to due being on mobile and PC, it may be worth it.