FineBut I'm not going to be that kind of doctor. :( Maybe a red pen. Except I don't usually use them. I dunno! A stack of books.
No thoughts on my math post? I suppose it doesn't say nothing new but any disagreements on assumptions?
I want to believe this is true, yes, because it means they are down to just one. The problem is if we don't hit them today, they might still have another recruit shot, and then we're going to be doing this for a while still.Like Monkey said, cult wouldn't start with a vig shot-capable member, or at least I don't think so. That makes me want to avoid CeeCee for the time being.
Let's assume cult started with 2 players. There were 25 other players, and 15 day modifiers. What's the right, balanced number of modifiers that should grant recruitment shots, assuming there was no way for cult to know them in advance?
I would say 5? We've gone through 7 including today's, but they wouldn't have been able to recruit yet if bar 2 granted them a shot, so 6. Following a uniform random distribution (again, assuming they didn't know which would grant them a recruitment shot) and those parameters, I'd expect cult to have recruited 2 players by today (1 recruit every 3 modifiers), which would mean there's likely one left.
If they did know them in advance, then I'd expect the number of "lucky" modifiers to be even lower.
If it weren't for the Cult being in existence, I would probably be suspecting Kyan as Scum right now, but I think it makes more sense for him to have been Cult this whole time instead actually. The most telling thing to me is how much his play changed once we needed to start hunting Cult instead of Scum. He was fine during the Scum Hunting days, but now it feels like he's clammed up and hardly has anything to give us.can you tell me why its more likely for kyan to be original cult then the others?
you could lynch me too, i would v much like that
Over LP and Blarg? The attempted Malus lynch over Saw and the Zeke lynch over Kyan.can you tell me why its more likely for kyan to be original cult then the others?
you could lynch me too, i would v much like that
Febe really wants that pizza.
gotta be honest i haven't even read the votes for the last couple of hours of eodOver LP and Blarg? The attempted Malus lynch over Saw and the Zeke lynch over Kyan.
funny how you are trying to push a mislynch after cult was caughtFunny how Flux voted for rac on D7 and D8 yet had him in his town list.
no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
To be fair, multiple people started out thinking it would be vanillas only. Even after Sorian's flip didn't mention that restriction there was more than just Blarg left as skeptical PRs could be recruited (Fanto obviously jumps to mind, think there may have been another).no one thinks its at all suspicious how hard blarg was pushing the only vanillas can be recruited narrative
I will say if anyone on that lynch would be cult it would be Blarg, just due to how much he was hopping around. I could see Blarg as cult openly pushing to ignore cult because it's easy to not take seriously coming from him. That said I still don't think the links there are as strong as kyan and CeeCee being on the Malus lynch with Flux, Sorian, and Saw then being on the Zeke lynch with Flux. Both have been low key of late as well. Kyan has no current reason to be excluded as original cult compared to say CeeCee either.
It would be Heck.
Unvote
Kyan, what do you mean by "tried to recruit Blarg but it was not mean to be"? Can you elaborate on that point?
It doesn't mean we don't love you, it just means we have to throw you out the window.
It doesn't mean we don't love you, it just means we have to throw you out the window.
It doesn't mean we don't love you, it just means we have to throw you out the window.
I'm Vanilla Town?[...] Although, this is a decent point...
Blarg,do you have something to tell us?